UNCL ASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTJGATION

INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
FBI Phoenix Field Office

lllliiillill
(U//LES) Anti-Government, Identity Based, and F ringe Political Conspiracy
Theories Very Likely Motivate Some Domestic Extremists to Commit
Criminal, Sometimes Violent Activity
(U) LAW ENF'ORCEMENT SENSITIVE: The information marked (U//LES) in this document is the prope1ty of the
Federal Bureau ofTnvestigation and may be distributed within the federal government (and its contractors), U.S.
intelligence, law enforcement, public safety or protection officials, and individuals with a need to know. Distribution
beyond these entities without FBI authorization is prohibited. Precautions should be taken to ensure this information
is stored and/or destroyed in a manner that precludes unauthorized access. Information bearing the LES caveat may
not be used in legal proceedings without first receiving authorization from the originating agency. Recipients are
prohibited from subsequently posting the information marked LES on a website on an unclassified network without
first obtaining FBI approval.

(U) Domestic extremists employ a number of indicators, some of which may be criminal and others which may
constitute the exercise of rights guaranteed by the First Amendment of the US Constitution. The FBI is prohibited
from engaging in investigative activity for the sole purpose of monitoring the exercise of constitutional rights.

(U//FOUO) T he FBI assesses anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy
theories 3 ' b very likelyc motivate some domestic extrem ists, wholly or in part, to commit criminal
and sometimes violent activity. The FBI further assesses in some cases these conspi racy theories
very likely encourage the targeting of specific people, p laces, and organizations, thereby
increasing the 1ikel ihood of violence against these targets. These assessments are made with high
confidence, d based on information from other law enforcement agencies, open source
information, comt documents, human sources with varying degrees of access and corroboration,
and FBI investigations.

(U//FOUO) One key assumption driving these assessments is that certain conspiracy theory
narratives tacitly suppo1t or legitimize violent action. The FBI also assumes some, but not all
individuals or domestic extremists who hold such beliefs will act on them. The FBI assesses
these conspiracy theories very likely will emerge, spread, and evolve in the modem information
marketplace, occasionally driving both groups and individual extremists to carry out criminal or
violent acts. Indicators that may lead to revised judgements or cause a change in the confidence
level associated with this assessment include a lack of conspiracy theory-driven criminal or
violent activity in the near to long term or significant efforts by major social media companies
and websites to remove, regu late, or counter potentially harmful conspiratorial content.

• (U) See Appendix A: Defining Conspiracy Theories.

b (U) For an explanation of these terms and a description of all conspiracy theories referenced in this intelligence
bulletin, see Appendix B: Prominent Anti-Government, Identity Rased, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories.
< (U) See Appendix C: Expressions of Likelihood.
d (U) See Appendix D: Confidence in Assessments and Judgments Based on a Body of Information.

UNCL ASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

FY 19 lntelligence Bulletin
Templale Effective 10-1 -2018
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OfflCIAL USE ONLY

(U) Source Summary Statement

(U//FOUO) This intelligence bulletin draws upon a wide body ofreporting derived from other law enforcement
agencies, open source information, documentary sources, human source reporting with varying degrees of
access, and FBI investigations from 15 January 2008 to 30 January 20 19. Reporting from other law enforcement
agencies and open source information was deemed the most critical in supporting the key analytic judgements in
this paper. News articles provided contextual details of various incidents and background on specific conspiracy
theories not contained in law enforcement reporting, while academic publications aided in clearly defining the
topi c, limiting the scope of the paper, and developing the key analytic judgments. Documentary sources
consisting of plea agreements, a Court of Appeals Opinion, a criminal complaint, and an indictment provided
additional details concerning the incidents discussed, including the charges brought against the perpetrators and,
in some cases, the conspiracy theory-based motives of their actions. The use of reporting derived from human
sources and FBI investigations was limited, although these sources did provide intelligence that corroborated
open source information. Human sources included an established human source with indirect access, much of
whose repo11ing since 2014 has been corroborated, a I iaison source with indirect access, a limited history of
reporting, and extensive knowledge of domestic extremist groups throughout the United States, and a member of
the public with indirect access, reporting for the first time, and whose reliability cannot be determined. The
intelligence encompassed withi n this intelligence bulletin was collected between 1 November 20 13 and 30
January 2019 and is current as of31 January 2019.

(U//LES) Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very
Likely Motivate Some Domestic Extremists to Commit Criminal or Violent Activity

(U//LES) The FBI assesses anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy
theories very likely motivate some domestic extremists, wholly or in part, to engage in criminal
or violent activity. This assessment is based on events in which individuals committed crimes,
plotted attacks, or successfully carried out deadly violence and who-either before or after their
arrests- attributed their actions to their conspiratorial beliefs. These events include instances in
which the perpetrators intended to kill groups identified by such theories as hosti le and
malevolent, or to simply carry out dangerous, unlawful acts in an effort to draw attention to or
expose a perceived conspiracy.

(U// LES) On 19 December 2018, a California man was arrested after being found in
possession of bomb making materials with the intent to construct an explosive device,
according to information obtained from a law enforcement agency. 1 According to
information obtained from a separate law enforcement agency, the individual stated he
planned to travel to Springfield, Illinois and blow up a satanic temple monument at the
Tllinois Capitol rotunda in order to "make Americans aware of 'Pizzagate' and the New
World Order (NWO), who were dismantling society." 2

(U//FOUO) On 27 October 2018, an identified individual killed 11 people and injured

several others at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, according to a
criminal complaint filed in US District Court. 3 According to a copy of his social media
postings obtained via open source, shortly before the attack the individual reposted a
cartoon depicting the Zionist Occupation Government conspiracy theory and stated that

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

2
FY19 lntelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society "likes to bring invaders in that kill our people. I can't
sit by and watch my people get slaughtered. Screw your optics, I'm going in." 4

• (U//FOUO) On 15 June 2018, a Nevada man used an armored truck to block traffic on
the Hoover Dam Bypass Bridge, held up signs conveying a political demand, then fled
into Arizona where he was arrested by Arizona Department of Public Safety, who found
body armor, rifles, ammunition, and a flash-bang device inside his vehicle, according to
law enforcement information. 5 According to a technical source with direct access, the
man referenced the QAnon conspiracy theory directly and discussed related
conspiratorial beliefs after his arrest. 6 According to an online news source deemed
reliable, he sent letters from jail containing a distinctive QAnon slogan to President
Trump and other officials claiming he wanted to expose government corruption and lies. 7

(U) On 27 October 2016, two men were arrested in Georgia on drug charges and found to
be stockpiling weapons, ammunition, and other tactical gear in preparation to attack the
government-funded research facility in Alaska known as the High Frequency Active
Auroral Research Program (HAARP), according to information obtained from another
law enforcement agency. 8 According to subject interviews by the Bureau of Alcohol,
Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), the men became upset after watching videos
online about the imposition of martial law and other government conspiracies. 9 · 10 One of
the men, who claimed the government was using HAARP to control the weather and
prevent humans from talking to God, also made references to the United Nations (UN)
invading America and sacrifices occurring at a New World Order church, according to
the same source. 11

• (U//FOUO) On 1 November 2013, an identified individual shot and killed one

Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officer and wounded several others at Los
Angeles International Airport, according to an FBI investigation. 12 Before the attack, the
individual wrote a letter expressing his desire to kill TSA personnel, who he associated
with the New World Order, according to a plea agreement filed in US District Court. 13

(U//LES) Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very
Likely Encourage the Targeting of Specific People, Places, aud Orgauizatious
(U//LES) The FBI assesses in some cases anti-government, identity based, and fringe political
conspiracy theories very likely encourage the targeting of specific people, places, and
organizations, thereby increasing the risk of extremist violence against such targets. This
assessment is based on several incidents where individuals threatened, assaulted, or plotted to
attack entities they perceived as being linked to or involved with an alleged conspiracy. This
targeting occurs when promoters of conspiracy theories, claiming to act as "researchers" or
"investigators", single out people, businesses, or groups which they falsely accuse of being
involved in the imagined scheme. These targets are then subjected to harassment campaigns and
threats by supporters of the theory, and become vulnerable to violence or other dangerous acts.

• (U//LES) On 29 May 2018, the leader of an unofficial, local veterans aid group claimed
to have discovered a child sex trafficking camp on privately owned land in Tucson,
Arizona, according to two news sources of unknown reliability. 14 • 15 After local law

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

3
FYl 9 Intelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

enforcement investigations discredited the claim, the leader repeatedly alleged a law
enforcement cover up and referenced the QAnon conspiracy theory as he and armed
group members searched for additional camps, according to multiple sources with
varying degrees of access. 16 • 17 • 18 • 19• 20 In addition, the leader and his supporters accused
specific residents, businesses, and local officials of aiding or participating in child sex
trafficking, according to two sources with indirect access. 21 • 22 • 23 The group also
harassed, threatened, and <loxed critics and opponents, according to multiple sources with
varying degrees of access, 24• 25 • 26 • 27• 28 and engaged in criminal activities, according to an
indictment filed in an Arizona county superior court. 29

(U) Following the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown,
Connecticut, conspiracy theorists who believed the shooting was a goverrunent hoax
harassed and threatened family members of the slain victims, who they believed to be
complicit, according to two online new sources deemed reliable. 30 • 31 According to an
FBI investigation, a Florida woman was arrested and sentenced in 2017 for sending death
threats to a victim's father, 32 • 33 and a Brooklyn, New York man was arrested in
November 2015 after harassing another victim's daughter and fleeing from police,
according to an online news source of unknown reliability. 34

• (U) On 4 December 2016, a North Carolina man was arrested in Washington, DC after he
entered the Comet Ping Pong pizza restaurant carrying an AR-15 rifle and a .38 revolver,
fired shots at a locked closet door, and aimed his rifle at an employee. The man was
motivated by the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, alleging that a child sex-trafficking ring
involving nationally known political figures was operating from inside the restaurant,
according to a plea agreement filed in US District Court. 35

• (U) On 10 April 2015, a Tennessee man was arrested for plotting to attack an Islamic
community near Hancock, New York known as Islamberg, according to an FBI
investigation. 36 According to a US Court of Appeals Opinion, inaccurate news reporting
about Islamberg had surfaced in recent years, including a story suggesting the community
supported terrorism. The man became obsessed with Islam berg, believing that its
residents were plotting to attack New York City, and in February 2015 he began attempts
to recruit others to join his attack. 37

(U) Perspective

(U) Although conspiracy theory-driven crime and violence is not a new phenomenon, today's
information environment has changed the way conspiracy theories develop, spread, and evolve.
The advent of the Internet and social media has enabled promoters of conspiracy theories to
produce and share greater volumes of material via online platforms that larger audiences of
consumers can quickly and easily access. 38 • 39 Based on the increased volume and reach of
conspiratorial content due to modern communication methods, it is logical to assume that more
extremist-minded individuals will be exposed to potentially harmful conspiracy theories, accept
ones that are favorable to their views, and possibly carry out criminal or violent actions as a
result. The Internet has also enabled a 'crowd-sourcing' effect wherein conspiracy theory
followers themselves shape a given theory by presenting information that supplements, expands,

UNCLASSIFIED//LA W ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

4
FYl9 lntelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

or localizes its narrative. The examples above demonstrate how crowd-sourced conspiracy
theories can influence which entities extremists choose to target. These examples also
substantiate concerns expressed by some researchers who believe a rise of conspiracism, fostered
in part by the Internet, may be accompanied by a search for scapegoats-those believed to be the
conspirators' allies, henchmen, or collaborators. 40

(U//FOUO) This is the first FBI product examining the threat from conspiracy theory-driven
domestic extremists and provides a baseline for future intelligence products.

(U) Analysis of Alternatives

(U//FOUO) The FBI considered the alternative hypothesis that domestic extremists likely turn to
violence only as a result of an underlying extremist ideology (such as militia extremism or white
racially motivated violent extremism), whereas conspiracy beliefs held by such extremists do not
play a role in their mobilization to violence. The FBI deemed this alternative to be less likely
because these conspiracy beliefs have motivated, at least in part, several high profile violent acts,
or have influenced the perpetrators-to the extent that they attributed their actions to their
conspiratorial beliefs before or after their arrests. In addition, academic research indicates
conspiracy beliefs are not only prevalent and influential in domestic extremist circles and among
those with extreme political views, but often serve to magnify and exacerbate existing extremist
sentiments. One indicator that would increase the likelihood of this alternative hypothesis is the
absence or decrease in incidents over the long term in which domestic extremists engage in
violent acts on the basis of their conspiracy beliefs.

(U) Outlook

(U//FOUO) The FBI assesses anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy
theories very likely will emerge, spread, and evolve in the modern information marketplace over
the near term, fostering anti-government sentiment, promoting racial and religious prejudice,
increasing political tensions, and occasionally driving both groups and individuals to commit
criminal or violent acts. Because some conspiracy theories are highly partisan in nature, political
developments, including those surrounding major election cycles such as the 2020 presidential
election, likely will impact the direction of these conspiracy theories and the potential activities
of extremists who subscribe to them over the long term. Another factor driving the intensity of
conspiracy theorizing in the United States, and the subsequent threat from conspiracy-minded
extremists, is the uncovering of real conspiracies or cover-ups involving illegal, harmful, or
unconstitutional activities by government officials or leading political figures. Indicators that
these scenarios are emerging include disrupted plots or successful attacks against popular
conspiracy theory targets, such as government facilities, synagogues, mosques, or partisan
political figures. Additionally, repmts of a sudden rise in threats and unfounded accusations
against a given individual or business may indicate impending conspiracy theory-driven crime or
violence.

(U) Intelligence Reqnirements

(U) FBI National Standing Collection Requirements

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

5
FYl9 Intelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

(U//FOUO) USA-TERR-CTD-SR-0711-18

(U//FOUO) USA-TERR-CTD-SR-0401- 16

(U) This intelligence bulletin was prepared by the Phoenix Field Office of the FBL Comments and queries may be
addressed to the Phoenix Field Office Field fntelligence Group at

f
1f.
I!
~

!'
!
r

I!
!
I
i
r
1
!!
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE !
6 !
l
FY I9 Intelligence Bulletin
i
I
I
If
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

(U) Appendix A: Defining Conspiracy Theories

(U) Although many conspiracy theories appear benign or inconsequential, others create serious
risks. Throughout history, such conspiracy theories have fueled prejudice, witch-hunts, genocide,
and acts of terrorism.' In the context of domestic terrorism, extremists often view the activities of
alleged conspirators as an existential threat that can only be stopped through drastic, or even
violent means. The definitions and notes below are meant to inform discussions within law
enforcement as they relate to potentially harmful conspiracy theories and domestic extremism.

(U) A conspiracy the01y is an attempt to explain events or circumstances as the result of a group of
actors working in secret to benefit themselves at the expense of others. r Conspiracy theories
typically allege wrongdoing by powerful others (for example, public officials, business executives,
scientists) or societally marginalized groups (for example, Muslims, Jews), and are most prevalent
among individuals with extreme political views. g Some conspiracy theories point to weak
circumstantial evidence, but ignore stronger evidence that would refute their claims. h, i
Consequently, they are usually at odds with official or prevailing explanations of events) While a
conspiracy theory refers to an allegation that may or may not be true, a conspiracy is a true causal
chain of events. Real conspiracies involving illegal, antidemocratic, or harmful activities by high-
level government officials and political elites have been exposed in the past and it has been argued
that such plots have encouraged conspiracism in society. k

(U) Relying on the premises that nothing happens by accident, nothing is as it seems, and
everything is connected, conspiracy theorists tend to view every bad outcome as the result of an
intentional decision by an evil actor, dismiss disconfirming evidence as "fabricated" by the
conspirators, and connect a wide range of seemingly unrelated occurences to suggest a larger plot. 1
Despite sharing key characteristics and at times featuring similar themes and intersecting plots,
conspiracy theories vary greatly in their scope. Some are narrowly focused on a particular event or
set of events whereas others suggest broad, expansive narratives that link multiple conspiracies in
complex ways to portray a group of evil actors working to manipulate society on a global scale.

e (U) Jouinal article; Advances in Political Psychology; "Understanding Conspiracy Theories"; 20 March 2019; p. 3;
Journal is a peer revie\ved academic journal. Author received pre-publication version of article on 30 January 2019.
r (U) Book; An1erican Conspiracy 171eories; 2014; p. 32; The authors are associate professors of political science al
the University of Miami.
s (U) Journal article; Social Psychological and Personality Science, Volume 6, Issue 5; "Political Extremism Predicts
Belief in Conspiracy Theories"; l 2 January 2015; pp. 570-578; Jou1nal is a peer-revie\ved academic journal that
covers research in social and personality psychology.
h (U) Paper; American Political Science Association Annual Meeting; "The Detenninants of Belief in Conspiracy
Theoriesn; 30 August 2012; p. 5; The American Political Science Association is a professional organization of
scholars and researchers in the field of political science.
i (U) Working paper; George Washington University Program on Extremism; "Conspiracy Theories in the
Patriot/Militia Movement"; May 2017; pp. 13-14; The George Washington University Program on Extremism
provides analysis on issues related to violent and non-violent extremism.
i (U) Jou1nal a1ticlc; Diogenes, Volume 1, Issue 7; "Conspiracy Theories as Stigmatized Knowledge"; 25 October
2016; p. 2; Diogenes is a peer reviewed academic journal that publishes papers in the field of philosophy and the
humanities.
k Book; Real Ene111ies: Con.r,piracy Theories and An1erican Den1ocracy, fVorld fVar I to 9111; 2009; pp. 1-12; The

author is a professor of history at the University of California, Davis.

1 Book; A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in C'onten1pora1y An1erica; 2003; pp. 3-4, 6; The author is a

leading expeit on the subject and a professor of political science at Syracuse University.

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

7
FY19 Intelligence I3ullctin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

(U) Appendix B: Prominent Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political

Conspiracy Theories

(U) The conspiracy theories referenced in this intelligence bulletin have been categorized as anti-
government, identity based, or fringe political because they assert secretive, malevolent acts
either by an allegedly hostile and tyrannical federal government, by racial, religious, or social
minority groups, or by political opponents.

Anti-Government

(U) NWO: A group of international elites controls governments, industry, and media
organizations, instigates major wars, carries out secret staged events, and manipulates economies
with the goal of establishing global rule. m

(U) UN: The UN is being used by an evil global cabal to erode American sovereignty, strip away
individual liberties, and bring foreign troops to American soil in order to replace democracy with
global tyranny. n

(U) False Flags: The official story surrounding a given terrorist attack or mass shooting is a lie;
the event was staged or conducted by the government to justify encroaclunents on civil liberties. 0

Identity Based

(U) Zionist Occupied Government: Jewish agents secretly control the governments of Western
states and are conspiring to achieve world domination.P

(U) Islamberg: The small Muslim community near Hancock, New York known as Islamberg is a
terrorist training camp; its residents, who pose as peaceful Muslims, are in fact Islamic radicals
operating as a terrorist sleeper cell. q

m (U) Website; Wikipcdia.com; List of Conspiracy Theories;

https://en. wikipcdia.org/\viki/List_of_conspiracy_theories; accessed on 26 February 2019; Wikipedia is an online

encyclopedia with user generated articles whose reliability cannot be determined.
n (U) Working paper; George Washington University Program on Extremism; "Conspiracy Theories in the

Patriot/Militia Movement"; May 2017; pp. 9-10; The George Washington University Program on Extremism
provides analysis on issues related to violent and non-violent extremism.
0
(U) Research paper; Demos; "The Pov1er of Unreason: Conspiracy Theories, Extremism, and Counterterrorism";
29 August 2010; p. 45; Demos is a think-tank based in the United Kingdom with a cross-party political vievvpoint.
P (U) Website; Wikipcdia.com; List of Conspiracy Theories;
https://en.wikipedia.org/\viki/List_of_conspiracy_theories; accessed on 26 February 2019; Wikipedia is an onlinc
encyclopedia \Vith user generated articles \Vhose reliability cannot be determined.
q (U) Online ne\.vs a11iclc; nytimes.com; "They Created a Muslim Enclave in Upstate N.Y. 'fhen Came the Online
Conspiracies."; 28 January 2019; https://www nytimes.com/2019/01/28/nyregion/islamberg-ny-attack-plot html;
accessed on 25 February 2019; The New York Times is a national daily newspaper.

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

8
FYl9 Intelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

Fringe Political

(U) Pizzagate: High ranking democratic officials are or were involved in a child sex trafficking
ring centered at the Comet Ping Pong pizza restaurant in Washington, DC.'

(U) QAnon: An anonymous government official known as "Q" posts classified information online
to reveal a covert effott, led by President Trump, to dismantle a conspiracy involving "deep state"
actors and global elites allegedly engaged in an international child sex trafficking ring.'

r (U) Online ne\vs ar1icle; Snopes; "'l'he Roots of'Pedophile Ring' Conspiracy Theories"; 2 Septernber 2018;
https://\vww.snopcs.com/news/2018/09/02/roots-pedophile-ring-conspiracy-theorics/; accessed on 4 January 2019;
Snopcs is the oldest and largest fact-checking site on the Internet.
s (U) Online ne\vs ar1icle; Snopes; "The Roots of'Pedophile Ring' Conspiracy Theories"; 2 September 2018;
https://vvv1\v.snopes.com/nc\vs/2018/09/02/roots-pedophile-ring-conspiracy-theories/; accessed on 4 January 2019;
Snopes is the oldest and largest fact-checking site on the Internet.

UNCLASSIFIED//LA W ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

9
FYl9 Intelligence Bul!etin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

(U) Appendix C: Expressions of Likelihood

(U) Phrases such as "the FBI judges" and "the FBI assesses," and tenns such as "likely'' and
"probably'' convey analytical judgments and assessments. The chatt below approximates how
expressions of likelihood and probability conelate with percentages of chance. Only tenns of
likelihood should appear in FBI products; the chart includes tenns of probability strictly for
compaiison, as they sometimes appear in reporting of other government agencies. Furthermore,
the FBI does not anive at judgments through statistical analysis; and will not use tenns of
probability to convey uncertainty in external FBI intelligence products.

UNCLASSIFIED

Almost Roughly

•
Vuy Vuy Almost
No Unlikely Even Likely
• Chance
Unlikely
Chance
Likely Certaln(ly)

Roughly
Highly Improbable Probable Highly Nearly
, Remote Improbable (Improbably) Even
(Probably) Pa·obable Certain
Odds
•

•••••••

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

10
FY19 Iutelligeucc Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

(U) Appendix D: Confidence in Assessments and Judgments Based on a Body of Information

(U) Confidence levels reflect the quality and quantity of the source information supporting a
judgment. Consequently, the FBI ascribes high, medium, or low levels of confidence to
assessments, as follows:

(U) High confidence generally indicates the FBI's judgments are based on high quality
information from multiple sources. High confidence in a judgment does not imply the assessment
is a fact or a certainty; such judgments might be wrong. While additional reporting and
information sources may change analytical judgments, such changes are most likely to be
refinements and not substantial in nature.

(U) Medium confidence generally means the information is credibly sourced and plausible but
not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.
Additional reporting or information sources have the potential to increase the FBI's confidence
levels or substantively change analytical judgments.

(U) Low confidence generally means the information's credibility or plausibility is uncertain,
the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or the
reliability of the sources is questionable. Absent additional reporting or information sources,
analytical judgments should be considered preliminary in nature.

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

11
FYl9 Intelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

(U) Endnotes
1
(U//LES) FBI; Case Information; 15 January 2019; 19 December 2018; "(U//LES) The Seaside PD reported they
arrested [Name \Vithheld] fOr possession of materials \Vi th intent to make a destructive device. [Name \vithheld.J said
he planned to build a bomb and traveling lo Springfield, IL to blo\v up a satanic temple monument being displayed
in the Illinois Capitol rotunda"; UNCLASS!FIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE; UNCLASSIFIED//LAW
ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE; Source is a [Name \vithheld] assessn1ent containing information from another law
enforcement agency.
2
(U) FBI; Case Information; 28 December 2018; 19 December 2018; "(U) The Seaside PD rep01tcd arresting
[Name withheld] for possession of materials with the intent to make a destructive device"; UNCLASSIFIED;
UNCLASSIFIED; Source is a [Name \Vithheld] assessment containing information fi·om another la\v enforcement
agency.
3
(U) FBI; Case information; 28 October 2018; 27 October 2018; "[TITLE REDACTED]"; UNCLASSIFIED;
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; Source [Name withheld] is the criminal complaint issued out of
the Western District of Pennsylvania.
4
(U) Website; Archive.today Wcbpage Capture; [TITLE REDACTED]; 27 October 2018; https://archive.fo/k63LE;
accessed on 3 January 2019; Source is a text and graphical copy of [Name withheld] social 1nedia profile.
5 (U) FBI; Case Information; 22 June 2018; 15 June 2018; "[TITLE REDACTED]"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR

OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; Source is a [Name withheld] assessment
containing incident reports from Arizona Depa1tment of Public Safety (AZDPS) and Nevada I,Iigh\vay Patrol.
6 (U//FOUO) FBI; Case Information; 22 June 2018; 15 June 2018; "[TITLE REDACTED]";

UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; Source is a

[Name withheld] assessment containing a supplemental repo1t by AZDPS \Vith pa1tial transcripts of subject's jail
calls, obtained through subpoena to the Mohave County Jail.
1
(U) Online news article; Revicwjournal.com; "Suspect in Hoover Dam standoff writes Trump, cites conspiracy in
letters"; l 3 July 2018; https://\VW\V .reviewj ournal .con1/crime/courts/suspect-in-hoover-dam-standoff-\vrites-trump-
cites-conspiracy-in-letters/; accessed on 28 January 2019; The Las Vegas Review-Journal is a major daily
ne\vspapcr. lleporting in the article is based on statements from the subject's attorney, court records, and letters
written by the subject.
8 (U) FBI; Case Information; 16 November 2017; 27 October 2016; "(U) Coffee County Sheriffs Office Police

Report - [Name withheld] (Pmt 1 of2)"; UNCLASSIFIED; UNCLASSIFIED; Source is a police report provided by
the Coffee County Sheriffs Office.
9
(U) FBI; Case Information; 2 December 2016; 27 September 2016; "(U) Interview of[Name withheld] by ATF";
UNCLASSIFIED; UNCLASSIFIED; Source is an investigative report from the ATF summarizing a custodial
interview with [Name withheld].
10
(U) FBI; Case Information; 2 December 2016; 27 October 2016; "(U) Interview of [Name withheld! by ATF";
UNCLASSIFIED; UNCLASSIFIED; Source is an investigative report fi·om the ATF summarizing a custodial
intervicvv with [Name withheld].
11
(U) FBI; Case Information; 2 December 2016; 27 October 2016; "(U) Interview of [Name withheld] by ATF";
UNCLASSIFIED; UNCLASSIFIED; Source is an investigative rcpo1t from the ATF summarizing a custodial
intervie\v \vith [Name withheld].
12
(U//FOUO) FBI; Case Information; 2 January 2018; 1 November 2013; "(U//FOUO) Timeline of Events - LAX
Terminal 3"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY;
Source is a timeline of events compiled from multiple sources including sutveillance video, telephone call
recordings, police radio co1nmunications, interviews, and other FBI data.
13
(U) FBI; Case Information; 15 September 2016; 1 September 2016; "(U) Guilty plea in captioned case";
UNCLASSIFIED; UNCLASSIFIED; Source is the plea agreement between I.Name withheld] and the United States
Attorney's Office for the Central District of California.
14 (U) Online ne\vs article; Tucsonnewsnow.com; "[Name vvithheld} discovers disturbing abandoned camp in
Tucson"; 31 May 2018; https://www.tucsonnewsnow.eom/story/38322543/[Name withheld]-abandoned-camp-
tucson/; accessed on 4 January 2019; Tucsonnewsnow.com is the official website for KOLD Ne\VS 13, a local ne\vs
channel. The a1ticle is based on reporting fro1n associates of tNa1ne \Vithheld] with direct access.
15 (U) Online news article; 12news.con1; "VERIFY: Is there a child sex camp in Tucson?"; 8 June 2018;

https://www. l 2news.con1/article/nev1s/local/arizona/veri fy-is-there-a-child-sex-eamp-in-tucson/7 5-562768168;

accessed on 24 January 2019; 12Ne\vs.com is the official website for KPNX Channel 12, a television station

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

12
FYI 9 Intelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

covering Arizona-related news. The article is based on videos from the [Names withheld] page and statements fro1n
a Pin1a County Sheriff's Department spokesperson.
16
(U) Website; [Name withheld]; 4 June 2018; https://www.[Name
withheld].com/TucsonPoliceDepaiiment/posts/1015554520845853 l; accessed on 24Januaiy2019; Source is a
social tnedia page associated with the Tucson Police Department.
17
(U) Online ne\vs article; hcn.org; "Conspiracy theories inspire vigilante justice in Tucson"; 12 September 2018;
https://vvvv\v .hcn.org/issues/50.17/politics-conspiracy-theories-inspire-vigilante-justice-in-tucson; accessed on 25
January 2019; 1-Iigh Country Ne\VS is an independent non-profit news media source covering issues facing the
Western United States. Reporting in the a1ticle is based on statements from local la\v enforcement employees with
direct access, intervievvs with members of[Name withheld] and vrith other members of the public \Vith direct access.
18 (U) Website; [Name withheld]; 17 January 2019; https://www.[Names withheld] status/1086090064323440640;

accessed on 25 January 2019; Source is a social media page associated vvith [Name withheld].
19 (U) Online news article; Motherboard.vice.com; '~#QANON Conspiracy Theorists Are Hunting for 'Child Sex

Camps' in the Arizona Dese1t"; 7 June 2018; https://www motherboard.vice.com/en_us/a1ticlc/zm8ww8/qanon-

conspiracy-theorists-arc-hunting-for-child-sex-ca1nps-in-the-arizona-dese1t; accessed on 25 January 2019;
Motherboard is a multimedia publication owned by Vice Media and focusing on stories related to technology and
science. Reporting in the article is based on stateinents from a Tucson Police Department representative, other local
and national nevvs reporting, and videos and posts ffom the [Names vvithheld] page.
20 (U) FBI; Case Information; 24 October 2018; I I August 20I 8; "[TITLE REDACTED]"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR

OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OfFIClAL USE ONLY; Source is an officer from another law
enforcement agency.
21
(U) FBI; Case Information; 6 July 2018; 28 June 2018; "(U) RE: E-Mail regarding [Name withheld]";
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEIVlENT SENSITIVE; UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE;
Source is a liaison contact with indirect access, vvhose repo1ting is limited and some of whose reporting has been
corroborated.
22 (U) FBI; Case Information; 5 July 2018; 5 July 2018; "(U) Information on [Name withheld]";

UNCLASSIFIED//LA W ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE; UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE;

Source is a liaison contact with indirect access, vvhose repo1ting is limited and some of whose reporting has been
corroborated.
23 (U) FBI; Case Information; 30 July 2018; 23 July 2018; "[TITLE REDACTED]"; UNCLASSlFlED//FOR

OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; Source is an established source with
indirect access to the info1mation, much of whose reporting has been corroborated.
24
(U//FOUO) FBI; Case Information; 9 August 2018; 9 August 2018; "(U//FOUO) Threats Made by [Name
withheld]"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFlCIAL USE ONLY;
Source is a screen capture of a comment posted to social media by user [Name vvithheld].
25
(U) FBI; Case Information; 6 July 20I8; 23 June 2018; "[TITLED REDACTED]"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR
OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIF!ED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE; Source is a member of the
public with indirect access who shared the infonnation vvith the Pima County Sheriff's Department.
26 (U) FBI; Case Information; 30 July 2018; 15 July 2018; "(U) Conversion to Full Investigation: [Name withheld];

AOT - DT Militia Extremism"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFlCIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR

OFFICIAL USE ONLY; Source is screen captures of social media posts, online videos, and documents fi·on1 other
\vebsites relating to the dox of local law enforcement oflicials .
27 (U//FOUO) FBI; Case Information; 26 September 2018; 20 September 2018; "(U//FOUO) Threats made by

[Name withheld] toward FBl"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR

OFFICIAL USE ONLY; Source is a video posted to social media websites containing threats made by [Name
withheld] toward the FBI.
28 (U) FBI; Case Information; I 8 October 2018; 15 October 2018; "[TITLED REDACTED]"; UNCLASSIFIED;

UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; An established source with indirect access to the information,
nluch of\vhose reporting has been con·oborated.
29 (U//FOUO) FBI; Case Information; 27 September 20 I 8; I 9 September 2018; "(U//FOUO) Pima County Superior

Court Indictment"; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE

ONLY; Source is the Pima County Superior Cou1t Indictment of !Name withheld] and associates for criminal
trespass and burglary charges.
30
(U) Online ne\vs a1ticle; latimes.co1n; "In an age of 1alternative facts,' a massacre of schoolchildren is called a
hoax"; 3 February 20 l 7; https://w\V\v.lati1nes.com/nation/la-na-sandy-hook-conspiracy-20170203-story html;

UNCLASSIFIED//LA W ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

13
FY 19 Intelligence Bulletin
UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

accessed on 4 January 2019; The Los Angeles Times is a national daily ne\vspaper. Reporting in the article is based
on statements from the father ofa Sandy Hook victim and a letter to the White I-louse from Ne\vto\vn residents.
31
(lJ) Online news article; TheGuardian.com; "Sandy Hook father [Name \Vithheld] on death threats: "I never
imagined I'd have to fight for my child's legacy"; 2 Nfay 2017; https://\V\V\v.theguardian.com/us-
ne\vs/2017/may/02/sandy-hook-school-hoax-massacre-conspiracists-victim-father; accessed on 4 January 2019;
TheGuardian.com is a British ne\vs and media \vebsite. Reporting in the article is based on an intervie\v \Vith the
father of a Sandy I-look victitn, a letter fi·om the Newtovvn school board to the White House, and statements from
[Names withheld].
32
(U) FBI; Case Information; 3 April 2017; 3 April 2017; "(U) Arrest of [Name withheld]"; UNCLASSIFIED;
UNCLASSIFIED; Source is the arrest warrant for [Name withheld].
33
(U) FBI; Case Information; 21 June 2017; 7 June 2017; "(U) Sentencing of [Name withheld]"; UNCLASSIFIED;
lJNCLASSIFTED; Source is an Fl3I agent \Vho \Vas present at [Name \Vithheld] sentencing hearing in US District
Court for the Southern District of Florida.
34
(U) Online ne\VS article; ctpost.com; "Sandy Hook 'truther' gets suspended sentence''; 18 April 2016;
https://wW\V. ct post. coin/po Ii cerepo rts/arti c Ie/S and y-I-I oo k-trulher-gets-suspended-scntence-725 54 82. php; accessed
on 7 January 2019; Ctpost.com is the official \Vebsite for The Connecticut Post, a daily ne\vspaper located in
Bridgeport, Connecticut. 1"hc article is based on proceedings of the superior couit in Bridgepoit, Connecticut.
35 (U) FBI; Case Information; I 8 August 20I 7; 24 March 2017; "(U) Plea Agreement"; UNCLASSIFIED;

UNCLASSIFIED; Source is a plea agreement filed in the US District Court for the District of Columbia.
36
(U) FBI; Case Information; 23 April 2015; I 0 April 2015; "(U) Arrest of [Name withheld]"; UNCLASSIFIED;
UNCLASSIFIED; Source is a copy of [Naine \Vithheld] arrest \Varrant, complaint, and affidavit.
37
FBI; Case Information; 27 November 2018; 4 October 2018; "(U) United States Court of Appeals Opinion on
[Name withheld]"; UNCLASSIFIED; UNCLASSIFIED; Source is an Opinion drafted by the Sixth Circuit of the
lJnited States Court of Appeals.
38
(U) Book; fVeb ofConspb·acy: A Guide to Conspiracy Theo1y Sites on the Internet; 2008; p. xi; 'I'he authors are
former reporters and editors who have published earlier \Yorks regarding on line news sources, one of \Vhom teaches
journalisn1 at New Jersey City University.
39 (U) Working paper; George Washington University Program on Extremism; "Conspiracy Theories in the

Patriot/Militia Movement"; May 2017; p. 15; The George Washington University Program on Extremisn1 provides
analysis on issues related to violent and non-violent extremism.
40
(U) Journal article; Diogenes, Volume 1, Issue 7; "Conspiracy Theories as Stigmatized KnowledgeH; 25 October
2016; p. 6; Diogenes is a peer revie\ved academic journal that publishes papers in the field of philosophy and the
humanities.

UNCLASSIFIED//LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

14
FYI 9 Intelligence Bulletin
U//LES

Product Title: Anti-Government, Identity Based, and Fringe Political Conspiracy Theories Very Likely Motivate Some Dom

llQTIJi.Il[,)jij@hi1f@iij@i.!..!ij#,lJ$ Select One Fili·l!ll.fa!!.!.i Select one

2 . (U/ / FOUO) Please rate your satisfaction with each of the following:

Neither
Very Somewhat Satisfied nor Somewhat Very
Satisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied N/A

Product's overall usefulness 0 0 0 0 0 0

Product's relevance to
your mission 0 0 0 0 0 0
Product·s timeliness 0 0 0 0 0 0
Product·s responsiveness
to your intelligence needs 0 0 0 0 0 0
3. (U/ / FOUO) How do you plan to use this product in support of your mission? (Check all that apply.)

Otegrate into one of my own organization's finished Q 1corporate into training

information or intelligence products . Qlcorporate into planning and preparedness efforts
Cllare contents with partners out side my organization O>o not plan to use
Cllare within my organization O>ther:
0 1prove situational awareness

• (U/ / FOUO) How does this product add value to your mission? (Please portion mark com ments)

I
• (U// FOUO) How could this product be improved? (Please po1twn m a1k comments)

• (U/ / FOUOJ What is the primary intelligence source

ou rely on to perform your mission?

Privacy Act Statement

U//LES

REV: 28 August 2013