Predictive Maintenance, a

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 Publicado el 1 de junio de 2017

John Yolton
Principal at FOG Group
Full disclosure: Personally, I prefer the term ‘condition monitoring’ versus
‘predictive maintenance’

Often missing in industry today is the belief that much of the maintenance
effort that we are able to predict could very well have been prevented,
had someone taken this objective to task.

This presents an opportunity to consider the more all-encompassing

strategy of preventing the effort of maintenance that is so well predicted
by the people and technologies provided today.

Never time....

The old axiom "why is it we always have time to do it over but never
enough to do it right" can be paraphrased for this situation.

"Why is it we can provide the tools and people to predict a failure but we
cannot provide the resources to prevent them?"
Predictive Maintenance

Predictive maintenance, defined by some, is the practice of allocating

specific and separate resources (both workers and technology) devoted
to the task of anticipating failure of machinery, equipment and structures.

"The goal of Predictive Maintenance" proponents say, "is to reduce

productive equipment downtime because of the inefficiency and
ineffectiveness of unplanned and unscheduled equipment and component
failures."

That is true, what is saved, or avoided, is some of the time that will be
lost replacing the defective and/or failed part.

The failed part, however, still has to be replaced and the operating
equipment still must be shutdown.

Whether taken down planned, or unplanned, production opportunity is

lost.

Predictive Maintenance might better be termed "Predicting Failure."

In the words of one Predictive Maintenance Technician, "I do not pretend

to 'predict' when a failure will occur. I consider myself a 'Planned'
Maintenance Technician because that is what I do, I 'plan' on [corrective]
work for other maintenance resources."

Failure

Once a bearing has developed a 'defect', it has failed. The degree of

failure and the timing of a complete catastrophic failure is another matter.

Once a motor winding develops a fault, it has failed. When and how
much failure are questions left to the predictive maintenance crews.

The strategic question in these cases is simple. Can this ‘corrective’

maintenance effort be prevented?

Certainly, being able to predict failure is a big step from the more
traditional, accepted practice of reacting and responding (with urgency
and massive resources, of course) to an emergency failure.

TRADITIONAL MAINTENANCE STRATEGY: 'The duty of maintenance

is the very quick repair and servicing of all equipment’

Praise for reaction

You, as a maintenance resource, must remember the praise and positive
reinforcement you received by 'getting us going again, so quickly', don't
you?

Were you motivated, personally, by the time you saved or by the pat on
the back?

If you said, 'by the time you saved' then you are likely a proponent of
Predictive Maintenance.

If you said, 'by the pat on the back' you are probably still performing
miracles, on the constant breakdowns that are occurring in your facility.

Speedy, knowledgeable, unplanned responses are appreciated and will

continue even in the best of worlds simply because ‘sh*t happens’.

Preventive Maintenance

For those of you that have admitted to 'saving time', which means
avoiding 'lost' time due to catastrophic failures, here is a new, radical
approach for you to pursue.

It is called Preventive Maintenance.

Maybe you've heard the term somewhere in your past. It has been used
a lot over the years to group all of those 'inspection-type' things that
maintenance resources are supposed to do, typically scheduled on a time
basis.

The term is overused, probably and arguably, misdefined.

If we do all 'those things' everything will run all right and nothing will
break down, it is thought. However, in the real world, as you well know,
no one ever has time to do 'those things' that are expected.

Preventive maintenance, then, is paid lip-service. It is rarely practiced,

never accomplished.

Preventive maintenance, properly defined and practiced, is the ultimate

state-of-mind by which a site's culture can live.

The harsh reality is that if a preventive maintenance attitude were

instilled in a facility's culture less traditional predictive maintenance will be
needed.

'Real world' example

A dryer section felt roll bearing is failing.

The reactive maintenance culture waits for it to fail, gathering up some

other work around the 'shutdown' when it finally does fail (in the middle of
the night on a weekend, as always) and 'reacts' to the emergency.

When the bearing fails it tears up the felt and the backside journal
requiring the entire roll to be replaced.

Everyone scurries around during the unscheduled shutdown trying their

best to speed up the fix so that the machine can return to the business of
making paper.

When it’s over, everyone walks around with smiles on their faces because
they have done a good job, under very adverse conditions, getting the
machine running again, and in 'record' time.

On the other hand.

In the predictive maintenance culture, the suspected bearing has been

monitored. It is established that the machine should be shutdown within
some specified time frame to prevent catastrophic failure at some
inconvenient time when maintenance and operational people will not be
at their peak performance.

Shutdown plans are developed for machine clothing changes and a

well-planned corrective maintenance work session. The replacement of
the dryer felt roll bearing is not [even] the determining job.

What are some of the other typical jobs performed during the outage by
the maintenance people?

 A pipe line is relocated between screens in the basement because

of an anticipated equipment addition.
 A couple of press rolls are changed.
 The rolls in the two-roll stack are changed.
 The rotating element of the machine chest pump is changed
because it hasn't been 'acting' right, lately.
 A couple of the pressure sensors on the DCS system haven't been
reading correctly and are changed out.
 Some belts are changed on the vacuum pumps.
 A couple of dryer joints and syphons are replaced and,
 a bunch of doctor blades are changed out.

The machine starts up.

Great stuff! Right?

On the other hand.

The preventive maintenance culture has had no bearing failure. No

unplanned downtime, nor any planned downtime.

The bearings are properly sized, from the beginning, to handle the
loading imposed. The bearings are properly mounted and lubricated, with
the right lubricant, the right amount of lubricant and the right quality of
lubricant.

Over the years the mill has consistently and incrementally increased
machine speed and consequently the bearing loads. The mill staff,
though, has kept in mind (preventive maintenance thinking) the
considerations of the equipment requirements to increase speeds.

Some indications of problems with bearings have been apparent, but the
mill has an analytic proactive force (an UPTEAM with reliability
engineering) in place that analyzes problems as they develop and
produces and follows through with a corrective action plan.

The bearings affected are upgraded, the lubricant and the lubrication
delivery system are improved.

Before the machine was shutdown for 'planned' machine clothing and
maintenance a well thought out schedule was developed.

No last minute, unplanned, poorly implemented jobs were allowed.

The 'shutdowns' were well staffed by every available person. The priority
work for the equipment was that of some very basic 'caring' about the
equipment's needs. After all, when does maintenance have a better
opportunity to 'care' for the equipment? When its running?

Some of the tasks performed are (this list is not all inclusive):

 TIGHTENING
 CLEANING
 CALIBRATING
 ADJUSTING
 INSPECTING
 ALIGNING
 REPLACING
 MODIFYING/APPLYING new technology
 LUBRICATING

Mill experience has shown that as these basic routines are followed, the
amount of manpower required to perform these tasks actually declines.
Experience has shown that the frequency of need also declines as the
'routine' becomes habit.

Routines that formerly took twenty-five (25) people and twelve (12) hour
shutdowns every 4 weeks have changed to twenty (20) people for ten
(10) hours every 5 weeks.

This reevaluation of attention is a never ending process designed to

maximize the resources while limiting both unplanned and planned
shutdown time.

Of course, there is very little 'strutting', and instead of a 'pat on the back',
the reward is improved production, less costs, and a feeling that 'my day
is a lot less hectic'.

Consider this

If the time is taken to properly align and balance all 'critical', non-spared,
rotating elements, whether it be pumps and motors or drives or rolls,
predicting failures would not be as resource demanding simply because
there would be less failures.

In other words, taking the proper action for the prevention of

maintenance, maintenance resources that could be used for better, more
productive purposes.

If the lubricating delivery system for your critical production or production

support equipment is reliable and the proper bearing and lubricant is
selected and installed correctly, predicting bearing failures would be
significantly reduced, because there will be less failures.

This is preventing needless, inefficient maintenance, or in other words,

preventive maintenance.

If the brushes on motors are inspected and the 'comms' routinely 'cared'
for, and care has been taken to properly specify the motor size and
service life, predicting failure is no longer necessary as a downtime
reduction effort. There is, simply, less downtime.

More costly maintenance has been prevented.

Deadline Oriented

"If this PM business is so good why hasn't it been widely used?"

That question is always posed.

The lack of universal acceptance of a preventive maintenance philosophy
by maintenance people can be attributed to the fact that 'traditional'
maintenance management (line foreman through department managers)
are taught, conditioned and exposed to imposed 'deadlines', throughout
their careers.

The typical maintenance activity is 'deadline oriented'. The goal being to

get the failure symptom replaced as soon as possible. The strategy is
urgent reaction to a problem.

Even preparing a daily work schedule meets resistance with many

maintenance supervisors.

The excuses are universally used:

"We can't use a daily schedule here, there are just too many
emergencies."

"How can I plan ahead, even for an hour, something always breaks
down."

"Plan? The only thing you can plan here is that there will be an
emergency."

Breakdowns, emergencies, urgent work, now those are exciting.

'Deadlines' are clearly seen. Goal achievement is immediate, and with
very positive reinforcement.

"Great job, Bob."

"Terrific response, Joe."

"Super effort, Tom."

How many maintenance supervisors react, usually very well, under

pressure? Most.

On the other hand, how many maintenance supervisors do not have to

react under pressure because there are no breakdowns, emergencies or
urgent jobs? Not many.

Professional Maintenance Strategy

Prevention of maintenance is not some element of the maintenance

process, it is the maintenance process.
Preventive maintenance is not a tactic to accomplish a strategy. It is the
strategy.

Preventing maintenance is not a dream, it is a state of mind.

'Today, when I enter the facility, I am going to prevent maintenance.'

PROFESSIONAL MAINTENANCE STRATEGY: 'The task of maintenance

is to minimize production losses caused by equipment breakdowns with
implementation of planned preventive action.'

There will be no deadline to meet, but the returns are much more
rewarding:

 Profitable operations,
 less frustrations,
 less hassle,
 lower costs and,
 more content workers.

Impossible? Dreamland?

It can be done, it has been done, and it is being done.

What good looks like

Taking people to visit manufacturing facilities in competitive locations is

an easy exercise.

The same responses are heard after those visitors have actually seen,
first hand, what is being practiced elsewhere.

There are doubts, of course, and questions.

'Their maintenance costs are as high as mine., so what's the big deal?"

Their costs are higher per person. Perhaps they do not have the luxury of
reducing staff size through attrition or otherwise because of national
political considerations. They simply are forced to carry a much larger
staff than required.

"I did not see maintenance people working anywhere in the mill."

This statement usually means that maintenance people are not seen
scurrying all about, reacting to emergencies. The maintenance people are
less visible because they are working on planned, scheduled activities, a
lot of which is preventing (future) maintenance. Is your lube technician
tasks visible?

"The buildings are so clean and neat and well maintained.'

Ask yourself, would your buildings and equipment look neat and clean
and well-kept if you were forced to keep the same number of people as
you have now, and they were able to work on well planned and executed
jobs without being 'pulled off' to work on some emergency 'failure’? Would
your facilities, then, receive adequate attention, instead of no attention?

'There is a low level of predictive maintenance, compared to us."

Is sophisticated predictive technology needed if failures are being

prevented? Predictive maintenance can become a crutch if totally relied
upon as the only cost reducing, production improving strategy in place.

Paradox

Those same companies may pay more for their raw materials, or energy
or labor. These same sites do not necessarily have the capability to
arbitrarily reduce staff. Yet they compete on price and quality.

Why? The answer to this paradox is quite simple.

IF FAILURES CAN BE PREDICTED, THEY CAN BE PREVENTED!

When failures are prevented, operating efficiency and effectiveness is

dramatically increased.

Predictive and Preventive

Industry runs on rotating equipment. Rotating equipment runs on

bearings. Bearings support shafts, and require lubrication. Shafts run in
process fluids, or water, and support loads. Loads have varying levels of
unacceptable unbalance or of misalignment.
If industry concentrated on preventing bearing failures alone, the profit
contribution gained from the reduction of lost time due to those failures is
astronomical. Add to this the asset improvement value from the increased
labor force productivity and a real 'winner' is produced.

Since these are facts, what, then, is so alien about a simple thought.

PREDICTED FAILURES CAN BE PREVENTED FAILURES.