Flow Valuation, Case #KEL778
Flow Valuation, Case #KEL778
Flow Valuation, Case #KEL778
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Number of Showrooms Total Square Feet
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Exhibit 2: Economic Indicators: GDP and Furniture Sales Growth
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI index 180.9 184.3 190.3 196.8 201.8 210.0 210.2 215.9 219.2 225.7 229.6 233.5 237.7 242.3 247.4 252.1 256.6 261.3
Inflation (CPI) 1.9% 3.3% 3.4% 2.5% 4.1% 0.1% 2.7% 1.5% 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%
GDP (T$) 10,642 11,142 11,853 12,623 13,377 14,029 14,292 13,974 14,499 15,076 15,685 16,238 17,049 18,012 19,021 20,078 21,101
GDP growth 4.7% 6.4% 6.5% 6.0% 4.9% 1.9% -2.2% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 5.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.1%
Furniture sales ($B) 94.44 96.7 103.8 109.1 112.8 111.1 99.6 86.3 87.3 90.1 93.1 95.9 98.6 101.2 103.6 105.9 108.0 110.2
Furniture sales growth 2.4% 7.3% 5.2% 3.4% -1.5% -10.4% -13.4% 1.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Exhibit 3: Teuer Furniture Income Statement
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales 2,057 10,415 26,701 51,540 79,191 90,680 111,451 134,093 148,218
Cost of goods sold -1,463 -7,057 -17,424 -30,730 -43,834 -47,290 -49,068 -55,487 -61,955
Selling, general and admin -410 -1,812 -4,958 -9,230 -13,576 -14,679 -16,471 -18,698 -21,253
Advertising -203 -1,019 -2,411 -4,588 -6,585 -7,532 -8,367 -9,545 -10,744
Depreciation -72 -307 -669 -1,264 -2,075 -2,188 -2,032 -1,820 -1,450
Lease -250 -1,080 -2,330 -4,240 -6,770 -7,380 -7,712 -8,450 -9,320
Corporate expense -185 -729 -1,602 -3,092 -4,751 -5,441 -5,573 -6,705 -7,411
Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 -543 -8,892 -13,356 -14,434
Net income -526 -1,588 -2,693 -1,604 1,600 5,626 13,337 20,033 21,651
Parameters:
Corporate tax rate 40%
Exhibit 4: Teuer Furniture Balance Sheet
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Assets
Accounts Receivable 0 751 3,479 8,675 16,946 25,272 29,059 36,625 42,421 48,200
Inventory 671 3,151 8,216 15,125 20,908 21,715 24,868 26,808 29,216 33,343
Total Current Assets 671 3,902 11,695 23,800 37,853 46,987 53,927 63,433 71,637 81,543
PPE 358 1,461 2,969 5,270 8,065 6,914 5,119 3,839 3,142 3,920
Total Assets 1,029 5,364 14,663 29,070 45,918 53,900 59,046 67,272 74,779 85,463
Parameters:
Lease rate (2013) 20.88
Lease inflation 2.0%
2004 3 17,600 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Cap expenditure 1,175 936
Accts receivable 2,292 3,870 5,029 5,526 5,276 5,599 5,612 5,691 5,815 5,833 5,852 5,871 5,890 5,908
Inventory 2,061 3,590 4,304 3,352 2,851 3,042 3,248 3,397 3,619 3,400 3,410 3,421 3,432 3,443 3,454
Accts payable 762 1,255 1,421 1,124 1,025 1,090 1,124 1,139 1,153 1,167 1,171 1,175 1,179 1,182 1,186
Accr expenses 95 158 193 173 162 162 175 177 179 170 170 171 172 172 182
2005 4 18,500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cap expenditure 1,814 1,506
Accts receivable 3,140 5,508 6,296 6,231 7,149 7,751 7,950 7,972 7,998 8,024 8,049 8,075 8,101
Inventory 3,296 5,271 4,640 3,975 4,075 4,427 4,354 5,114 4,661 4,676 4,691 4,706 4,721 4,736
Accts payable 1,078 1,760 1,742 1,381 1,523 1,572 1,565 1,631 1,601 1,606 1,611 1,616 1,621 1,626
Accr expenses 138 212 240 203 240 244 251 259 245 232 232 233 234 235
2006 5 21,100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cap expenditure 2,971 2,450
Accts receivable 4,433 6,593 7,974 10,040 10,908 11,761 11,332 11,368 11,405 11,442 11,478 11,515
Inventory 4,344 6,518 6,635 5,870 6,689 6,854 6,348 6,625 6,647 6,668 6,689 6,711 6,732
Accts payable 1,533 2,227 2,181 1,889 2,165 2,325 2,377 2,275 2,282 2,290 2,297 2,304 2,312
Accr expenses 193 272 300 291 337 343 362 349 350 327 328 330 331
2007 6 22,100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Cap expenditure 4,058 3,277
Accts receivable 4,817 6,829 9,849 12,400 13,920 14,342 14,388 14,434 14,481 14,527 14,574
Inventory 5,232 6,246 8,710 7,320 8,121 9,022 8,385 8,412 8,439 8,466 8,493 8,521
Accts payable 1,732 2,480 2,712 2,631 2,712 2,919 2,879 2,889 2,898 2,907 2,916 2,926
Accr expenses 213 293 362 381 436 435 441 443 444 414 415 417
2008 2 15,500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cap expenditure 924 761
Accts receivable 1,048 1,758 2,212 2,905 3,294 3,345 3,356 3,367 3,378 3,389
Inventory 1,028 1,711 2,147 1,727 1,911 1,926 1,956 1,962 1,969 1,975 1,981
Accts payable 349 547 662 586 690 661 672 674 676 678 680
Accr expenses 43 72 88 94 101 92 103 103 104 97 97
2009 1 14,500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Cap expenditure 394 322
Accts receivable 484 840 1,191 1,411 1,548 1,572 1,577 1,582 1,587
Inventory 488 882 881 823 825 905 919 922 925 928
Accts payable 171 261 327 281 283 311 316 317 318 319
Accr expenses 21 34 43 44 40 44 48 49 49 46
2010 2 14,700 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cap expenditure 752 616
Accts receivable 956 1,787 2,295 2,819 3,093 3,141 3,151 3,161
Inventory 1,013 1,787 1,913 1,891 1,648 1,808 1,836 1,842 1,848
Accts payable 348 577 683 649 566 621 631 633 635
Accr expenses 44 71 91 79 79 88 97 97 97
2011 2 15,400 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Cap expenditure 798
Accts receivable 1,093 1,851 2,471 3,035 3,330 3,382 3,393
Inventory 1,067 1,795 1,728 2,036 1,775 1,947 1,977 1,984
Accts payable 387 623 593 699 609 669 679 681
Accr expenses 47 76 67 86 86 95 104 104
2012 3 16,300 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cap expenditure 1,293
Accts receivable 1,745 2,969 3,963 4,869 5,341 5,424
Inventory 1,708 1,813 2,771 3,266 2,846 3,123 3,171
Accts payable 617 623 952 1,122 977 1,072 1,089
Accr expenses 79 65 107 137 137 152 167
2013 2 16,000 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cap expenditure 860
Accts receivable 1,175 1,999 2,669 3,279 3,597
Inventory 1,221 1,866 2,200 1,917 2,103
Accts payable 419 641 755 658 722
Accr expenses 44 72 92 93 102
2014 2 16,000 0 1 2 3 4
Cap expenditure 876
Accts receivable 1,210 2,060 2,749 3,377
Inventory 1,258 1,922 2,266 1,974
Accts payable 432 660 778 678
Accr expenses 45 75 95 95
2015 2 15,000 0 1 2 3
Cap expenditure 837
Accts receivable 1,167 1,985 2,650
Inventory 1,212 1,853 2,184
Accts payable 416 636 750
Accr expenses 44 72 92
Exhibit 7: Teuer Furniture Cash Flow Assets
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales 2,057 10,415 26,701 51,540 79,191 90,680 111,451 134,093 148,218
- Costs -2,583 -12,003 -29,394 -53,144 -77,592 -84,510 -89,222 -100,704 -112,132
- Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 -543 -8,892 -13,356 -14,434
Net income 0 -526 -1,588 -2,693 -1,604 1,600 5,626 13,337 20,033 21,651
- Capital expenditure -358 -1,175 -1,814 -2,971 -4,058 -924 -394 -752 -1,122 -2,229
+ Depreciation 0 72 307 669 1,264 2,075 2,188 2,032 1,820 1,450
- Increase in NWC -406 -2,193 -5,957 -9,467 -11,645 -8,498 -6,281 -8,494 -7,192 -8,365
Cash flow to assets -764 -3,823 -9,052 -14,461 -16,043 -5,747 1,139 6,124 13,539 12,508
Exhibit 8: Forecasting Sales Revenue and Costs
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Sales growth 2003 73.6% 34.6% 19.5% 15.1% 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% -0.6%
2004 72.9% 29.2% 21.4% 8.1% 3.6% 3.4% 0.0%
2005 76.6% 32.6% 22.2% 7.8% 3.7% -3.1%
2006 73.8% 28.8% 24.4% 11.3% -1.3%
2007 64.5% 36.8% 26.1% 6.3%
2008 60.5% 35.6% 23.6%
2009 69.0% 36.6%
2010 70.4%
2011
Average 70.2% 33.5% 22.9% 9.7% 1.5% 0.3%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
CGS 2003 71.1% 61.5% 57.8% 38.9% 43.4% 42.0% 38.9% 36.6% 40.0%
2004 71.3% 62.4% 52.1% 43.8% 39.0% 41.2% 38.7% 40.2%
2005 72.9% 65.6% 57.8% 40.6% 41.1% 40.3% 40.2%
2006 70.1% 53.1% 57.6% 33.3% 38.9% 40.0%
2007 72.6% 67.3% 53.9% 38.4% 41.0%
2008 64.4% 67.0% 61.0% 40.7%
2009 71.0% 65.9% 53.3%
2010 74.0% 66.5%
2011 70.3%
Average 70.9% 63.7% 56.2% 39.9%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
SGA 2003 19.9% 17.1% 16.4% 13.9% 12.9% 13.9% 13.6% 11.7% 13.1%
2004 17.6% 18.0% 17.4% 14.1% 14.5% 13.7% 13.9% 13.0%
2005 20.4% 17.9% 17.0% 14.5% 13.2% 13.2% 15.1%
2006 20.4% 19.0% 18.0% 12.7% 14.4% 14.2%
2007 19.8% 17.6% 18.0% 13.0% 13.6%
2008 16.4% 18.4% 16.9% 13.4%
2009 17.9% 19.2% 17.4%
2010 20.7% 19.4%
2011 20.9%
Average 19.3% 18.3% 17.3% 13.6%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Advertising 2003 9.9% 8.9% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 7.7% 6.9% 6.8% 7.6%
2004 10.3% 8.2% 8.3% 7.4% 8.0% 7.7% 7.2% 7.2%
2005 10.9% 8.9% 8.0% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% 7.3%
2006 10.3% 8.4% 8.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6%
2007 10.2% 9.0% 8.1% 6.9% 7.1%
2008 10.2% 9.6% 8.3% 7.3%
2009 11.0% 9.1% 8.6%
2010 11.7% 8.9%
2011 10.7%
Average 10.6% 8.9% 8.2% 7.2%
Exhibit 9: Forecasting Investment
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Accounts Receivable 2003 36.5% 31.6% 31.9% 32.1% 32.2% 30.9% 31.0% 29.7% 31.5%
2004 34.4% 32.5% 33.2% 33.5% 34.2% 34.6% 32.5% 31.9%
2005 32.8% 33.1% 31.8% 29.7% 31.3% 31.7% 32.4%
2006 32.6% 31.2% 33.8% 33.8% 32.0% 33.8%
2007 31.2% 31.0% 32.3% 31.3% 32.0%
2008 32.9% 34.0% 30.5% 31.4%
2009 33.7% 33.5% 33.6%
2010 31.8% 33.7%
2011 32.6%
Average 32.4%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inventory 2003 45.9% 47.2% 44.0% 50.4% 42.4% 42.4% 44.3% 50.3% 42.5%
2004 43.4% 48.3% 54.5% 46.4% 47.3% 45.6% 48.5% 47.3%
2005 47.2% 48.3% 40.6% 46.8% 43.4% 44.9% 48.2%
2006 45.6% 58.0% 48.8% 59.3% 50.4% 49.2%
2007 46.7% 42.2% 53.0% 48.1% 45.5%
2008 50.1% 49.4% 48.6% 45.9%
2009 47.8% 53.4% 46.7%
2010 45.5% 50.7%
2011 45.3%
Average 47.6%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Accounts Payable 2003 16.1% 17.2% 14.8% 16.9% 14.6% 15.2% 15.7% 17.2% 15.3%
2004 16.1% 16.9% 18.0% 15.6% 17.0% 16.3% 16.8% 15.9%
2005 15.4% 16.1% 15.2% 16.2% 16.2% 15.9% 17.3%
2006 16.1% 19.8% 16.0% 19.1% 16.3% 16.7%
2007 15.5% 16.8% 16.5% 17.3% 15.2%
2008 17.0% 15.8% 15.0% 15.6%
2009 16.8% 15.8% 17.3%
2010 15.6% 16.4%
2011 16.4%
Average 16.3%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Accrued Expenses 2003 4.7% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 4.5% 4.6% 5.2% 4.7%
2004 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9%
2005 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.6%
2006 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7%
2007 4.6% 5.0% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8%
2008 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.9%
2009 5.2% 4.8% 4.7%
2010 4.5% 4.7%
2011 4.4%
Average 4.8%
Nominal Real
Construction costs 2003 20.8 25.9
2004 22.3 26.8
2005 24.5 28.6
2006 28.2 32.0
2007 30.6 33.5
2008 29.8 32.6
2009 27.2 28.9
2010 25.6 26.8
2011 25.9 26.4
2012 26.4 26.4
2013 26.9 26.4
2014 27.4 26.4
2015 27.9 26.4
Nominal Real
Refresh cost 2003 90.6% 74.0%
2004 79.6% 66.0%
Average 70.0%
Exhibit 10: Forecasting Parameters
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales growth 70.2% 33.5% 22.9% 9.7% 1.5% 0.3%
CGS (% sales) 70.9% 63.7% 56.2% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9%
SGA (% sales, excluding dep & advertising) 19.3% 18.3% 17.3% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6%
Advertising (% sales) 10.6% 8.9% 8.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%
Accounts Receivable (% sales) 32.4%
Inventory (% next year's CGS) 47.6%
Accounts Payable (% next year's CGS) 16.3%
Accrued expenses (next year's SGA adv) 4.8%
Depreciation (years) 5
Refresh cost 70%
Corporate tax rate 40.0%
Corporate expenses 5.0%
Discount rate 12.1%
Long-term growth rate 3.5%
Shares outstanding (K) 9,945
Teuer Furniture Pro Forma Income Statement
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 148,218 160,374 172,287 184,726 197,314 205,954 211,705 215,340
CGS -61,955 -68,126 -73,240 -78,274 -82,644 -84,960 -85,748 -85,863
SGA (exc adv & dep) -21,253 -22,647 -24,349 -26,076 -27,641 -28,609 -29,091 -29,284
Advertising -10,744 -11,841 -12,699 -13,589 -14,449 -14,943 -15,247 -15,424
Depreciation -1,450 -1,084 -1,373 -1,959 -2,631 -2,559 -2,178 -1,828
Lease (stores) -9,320 -10,613 -11,575 -12,320 -13,092 -13,382 -13,678 -14,106
Corp Expense (inc lease/adv) -7,411 -8,019 -8,614 -9,236 -9,866 -10,298 -10,585 -10,767
Taxes -14,434 -15,218 -16,175 -17,309 -18,796 -20,481 -22,071 -23,227
Net income 21,651 22,827 24,262 25,963 28,194 30,722 33,107 34,841
Parameters:
Corporate tax rate 40%
Corporate expenses 5%
Teuer Furniture Pro Forma Balance Sheet
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Assets
Accounts Receivable 48,200 52,021 55,885 59,920 64,003 66,806 68,671
Inventory 33,343 32,402 34,834 37,229 39,307 40,409 40,783
Total Current Assets 81,543 84,422 90,719 97,148 103,310 107,214 109,454
PPE 3,920 5,203 7,155 9,310 7,440 5,203 3,641
Total Assets 85,463 89,625 97,874 106,459 110,750 112,417 113,096
Parameters:
Asset discount rate 12.1%
Long-term growth rate 3.5%
Shareholders (#) 187
Shares outstanding (K) 9,945