1
CONCEPT
SELECTION
Concept Development Phase
2
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Concept System-Level Detail Testing and Production
Development Design Design Refinement Ramp-up
Development
Mission Plan
Statement
Identify Establish Generate Select a
T
Targett P d t
Product Test Set Plan
Customer Product
Specs Concepts Product Final Downstream
Needs Concept
Concept Specs Development
Perform Economic Analysis
Benchmark Competitive Products
B ld andd Test
Build T M Models
d l andd PPrototypes
These activities can occur
throughout the design process!
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Concept Development & Selection Funnel
3
Filter and decide
concept generation
concept screening
concept scoring
concept testing
Expand
p our thinkingg
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Method Of Decision Making
4
Every team uses some method of decision making. Common methods include:
External decision; let someone else decide; customer, client, etc.
Product Champion; an influential team member chooses the concept.
Intuition; subjective criteria are used to decide….. It just feels better.
Multi-voting; team members vote for their favorite.
Pros and Cons; team list strengths and weaknesses and choose based on
opinions.
Prototype and test; team builds several units and decision is based on
results.
lt
Decision matrices; team rates each concept against defined selection
criteria.
i i
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Decision Matrices
5
BBenefits i decision
fi off using d i i matrices i
A customer focused approach; concepts are evaluated against
customer-oriented
customer oriented criteria.
criteria
More competitive designs; concepts are benchmarked against best-in-
class designs.
g
Reduced development time; using a structured approach develops a
common vision and language for the design team.
Better group decision making; the decision is more likely to be based on
objective criteria.
Documentation of the decision process; the method provides its own
documentation.
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Process of Concept Selection
6
The two stages off concept selection
Th l
Concept Screening: give relative score against a known benchmark design.
fast, approximate evaluation that produces several viable concepts.
Best used when quantitative comparisons are difficult.
Usually
U ll requiresi some sortt off reference
f conceptt for
f relative
l ti evaluation.
l ti
Concept Scoring: weighted ranking of measurement criteria.
UUsedd when
h only l a few
f alternatives
lt ti are being b i considered.
id d
Required quantitative comparisons of concepts.
Can still be quite subjective due to choices of weights and ranks!?
Concept Selection| PDD | AAiT | 2012
Process of Concept Selection, cont
cont’dd
7
Concept Selection Process
S
Screening Stage
S S i SStage
Scoring
• Prepare the Matrix-
Matrix- Pugh's • Refine the Matrix-
Matrix- Pugh's
Method;
Method Method;
Method
• Rate Concepts; • Rate Concepts;
p
• Rank Concepts • Rank Concepts
• Combine and Improve • Combine and Improve
• Select Best Concept • Select Best Concept
• Reflect on the Process • Reflect on the Process
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Method 1
1--Concept
Concept Screening
8
1.1 P
Prepare th
the M
Matrix
Matrix-
t i - Pugh's
P h' M Method
Method;
th d
• Criteria Select Product Concepts
• Reference Concept
2
2. Rate Concepts;
Concepts Selection Criteria A B C E F
• Scale (+ – 0) Criteria 1 0 - 0 + --
• Compare to Reference Concept
3
3. Rank Concepts Criteria 2 0 - + ++ 0
4. Combine and Improve
• Remove Bad Features Criteria 3
0 0 - 0 -
• Combine Good Qualities 0 -2 0 +3 -3
5. Select Best Concept Sum/Rank
• May Be More than One
• Beware of Average Concepts A= reference
6. Reflect on the Process
• Continuous Improvement
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Example on concept screening;
R
Reusable
bl SSyringe
i
9
Referee your text book
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
In-Class Exercise
10
Class as a team iis suppose to workk ffor “Innovative
Cl “I ti DiDirections”
ti ” as class
l activity
ti it
the team has been assigned this task:
“Design
Design and build an economical solution which will make it easy for those
unfamiliar with the AAiT campus to find their way around.”
Innovative Directions Concept
p Generation
What would be some of the possible solutions for providing campus directions?
Physical map
Downloadable map
New signs on campus
New building signs
Color coded strips on the sidewalks
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Innovative Directions Concept Screening
examplel
11
What would
Wh ld some goodd screening criteria for
f choosing
h the
h best
b alternative
l for
f
the Innovative Directions example?
Ci i
Criteria
• Cost of the solution
• E off use
Ease
• Portability
• Accuracy of data
• Cost of development
• Availability of solution
What would be a good benchmark concept?
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Example
p on Concept
p Screening,
g, cont’d
12
striipes on waalks
wnloadablee
Phyysical Mapp
w building
Concepts
Coloor coded
on ccampus
w signs
signs
C
Criteria
New
New
Dow
Map
E off Use
Ease U
0
Availability of information
0
Cost 0
Sum/Rank 0
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Concept Scoring
13
S 1--Preparing
Step 1 P the
h selection
l matrix.
In addition to the requirements for screening each criteria must be assigned a weight in
relationship to its importance.
importance
A good way of assigning weights is to allocate 100 percentage points across
all criteria.
Or, importance values can be assigned, 1-9.
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2011
Concept Scoring, cont
cont’dd
14
C
Concept SScoring Matrix
M
Concepts
Concept A Concept B Concept C Concept D
Weight
Criteria Rating Weighted
Score Rating Weighted
Score
Rating Weighted
Score
Rating Weighted
Score
Criteria 1 X% 1 1X
Criteria 2 Y% 3 3Y
Criteria 3 Z% 9 9Z
Sum
Totals 100%
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Concept scoring, cont
cont’d
d
15
Step 2--Rate the Concepts
assign a numerical value to each concept with respect to the criteria.
Use a wide scale to help differentiate among concepts. I.e. 1,3,9
Step 3--Rank the Concepts
ranking is done by multiplying the concept scores by the criteria weights.
Add up all the scores for each concept.
List the concepts by descending order.
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Example on Concept Screening, cont
cont’dd
16
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Concept Scoring, cont
cont’dd
17
Step 4--Combining and improving is similar to concept screening.
Step 5--Select one or more concepts
choose the highest ranking concepts
look for individuals scores where one criteria was significant to the total.
Decide whether the scoring was quantitative enough to make a decision.
Step 6--Reflect on the Results
this is again similar to screening, does the answer make sense.
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
Example on Concept Scoring
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In class exercise
Develop a scoring matrix for the criteria that you developed in Exercise #1.
Give relative weights to the criteria and design a scoring definition for the
ranking.
How does this help with the evaluation of the criteria?
Concept Selection| PDD|AAiT|2012
19
CONCEPT
TESTING
Concept Development Phase
20
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Concept System-Level Detail Testing and Production
Development Design Design Refinement Ramp-up
Development
Mission Plan
Statement
Identify Establish Generate Select a
T
Targett P d t
Product Test Set Plan
Customer Product
Specs Concepts Product Final Downstream
Needs Concept
Concept Specs Development
Perform Economic Analysis
Benchmark Competitive Products
B ld andd Test
Build T M Models
d l andd PPrototypes
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Development Funnel
21
Filter and decide
concept generation
concept screening
concept scoring Forecast
concept testing
Expand
p our thinkingg
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Advantage of Concept Testing
22
CConcept TTesting is Used
U d for
f Several
S l Purposes
P
Go/no-go decisions
What market to be in?
Selecting among alternative concepts
Confirming concept selection decision
Benchmarking
Soliciting improvement ideas
Forecasting demand
Ready to launch?
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
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A seven stepped processes for testing product concepts is recommended
1. Define the purpose of the concept test.
2
2. Ch
Choose a survey population.
l
3. Choose a survey format.
4
4. C
Communicate
i t the
th concept.t
5. Measure customer response.
6
6. It
Interprett the
th results.
lt
7. Reflect on the results and the process.
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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Step 1: Define the Purpose of the Concept Test
the team explicitly articulates in writing the questions that the team wishes to
answer with
i h the
h test.
The primarily questions addressed in concept testing are typically:
Whichh off the
Wh h severall alternative
l concepts should
h ld be
b pursued?
d?
How can the concept be improved to better meet customer needs?
A
Approximately
i t l howh many units it are lik
likely
l tto be
b sold?
ld?
Should development be continued?
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process, cont
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S 22: Choose
Step Ch a Survey
S Population
P l
Factors leading to relatively smaller or larger survey sample sizes
Samples Favoring a Smaller Factors Favoring a Larger
Sample Sizes Sample Size
When the test occurs early in Concept Dev.
Dev Process later in Concept Dev.
Dev Process
Test is primarily intended to gather qualitative data to assess demand quantitatively
Surveying potential relatively costly in time or relatively fast and inexpensive
customers is money
Required investment to relatively small relatively high
develop and launch the
product is
expected to value the relatively large fraction of the relatively small fraction of the
product target market target market
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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SStep 33: Choose
Ch a Survey
S Format
F
The following formats are commonly used in concept testing:
FFace-to-face
t f interaction:
i t ti in i this
thi format,
f t an interviewer
it i interacts
i t t directly
di tl with ith the
th
respondent.
Telephone:
p telephone
p interviews mayy be pprearranged
g and targeted
g at veryy specific
p
individuals.
Postal mail: concept testing materials are sent and respondents are asked to return
a completed form.
form
Electronic mail: this is better if the team has already established some kind of
positive relationship with the target population.
Internet: a team may create a virtual- concept testing site in which survey
participants can observe concepts and provide responds.
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Survey Format; for scooter Product Dev.
Dev
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PART 1,1 QQualification
lf
How far do you live from campus?
<If If nott 1-3
1 3 miles,
il th thankk th
the customer
t andd endd interview.>
it i
How do you currently get to campus from home?
How do you currently get around campus?
PART 2, Product Description
<Present the concept description
PART 3, Purchase Intent
If the product were priced according to your expectations,
expectations how likely would you be to purchase
the scooter within the next year?
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Survey Format; for scooter Product Dev…cont
Dev cont’dd
28
PART 4,
4 CComments
What would you expect the price of the scooter to be?
What concerns do you have about the product concept?
Can you make any suggestions for improving the product concept?
Thank you.
y
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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S 44: Communicate
Step C the
h Concept
C
The choice of the survey format is closely linked to the way in which the concept will be
communicated.
communicated
Concepts can be communicated in any of the following ways, listed in order of increasing richness of the
description.
Verbal description: …using a short paragraph or a collection of bullet points summarizing the
product concept.
Sketch:
Photos and rendering:…when appearance models exist for the product concept.
Renderingsg are nearlyy pphoto-realistic illustrations of the concept.
p
Storyboard: it is a series of images that communicates a temporal sequence of actions
involving the product.
Vid
Video:
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
cont’dd
30
SSimulation:
l it is generally
ll implemented
l d as software
f that
h mimics theh function
f or
interactive features of the product.
Interactive multimedia:
u d interactive
a multimedia
u d a combines the visual
ua richness of video
d
with the interactivity of simulation.
Physical appearance models: Physical appearance models, also known as “looks like”
models vividly display the form and appearance of the product
models, product.
They are often made of wood and polymer foams and are painted to look like real
product.
Working prototypes: when available, working prototypes, or works-like models, can
be useful in concept testing.
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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S 55: Measure
Step M CCustomer Response
R
Most concept test surveys
fi t communicate
first i t ththe product
d t conceptt andd then
th measure customer
t response.
Further, Concept tests also generally attempt to measure purchase intent.
The most commonly used purchase-intent
purchase intent scale has five response categories.
categories
Defiantly would buy.
Probably would buy.
Might or might not buy.
Probably would not buy.
Defiantly would not buy
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
cont’dd
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S 66: Interpret
Step I the
h RResults
l
If the team is simply interested in comparing two or more concepts, interpretation of
the results is straightforward.
straightforward Thus
Thus,
If one concept dominates the others and the team is confident that the
p d
respondents uunderstood
d d the keyy ddifferences aamongg the concepts,
p , then the team
a
can simply choose the preferred concept.
If the results are not conclusive, the team may decide to choose a concept based
on cost or other considerations, or may decide to offer multiple versions of the
product.
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
cont’dd
33
We estimate Q the
W h quantity off the
h product
d expectedd to be
b sold
ld during
d a time
period, as
Q = N*A*P
Where :
N is the number of potential customers or purchases
A is the fraction of those potential customers or purchases for which the
product
d t is
i available
il bl andd the
th customer
t is
i aware off the
th product.
d t
P is the probability that the product is purchased if available and if the
customer is aware of [Link] where
P = ( Cdef. X Fdef. )+( C pro. X F pro. )
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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P iis estimated
ti t d iin tturn by
b
P = (C definitely * Fdefinitely ) + (C probably* F probably)
Where:
Fdefinitely is the fraction of survey respondents indicating in the concept test survey that
they would definitely purchase (often called the “top box” score).
Fprobably is the fraction of survey respondents indicating that they would probably
purchase (often called the “second box” score).
Cdefinitely and Cprobably are calibration constants usually established based on the
experience of a company with similar products in the past.
past
Generally the values of Cdefinitely and Cprobably falls in these intervals:
0.10 < Cdefinitely < 0.50, 0 < Cprobably < 0.25.
Absent prior history, many teams use values of Cprobably=0.2 and Cdefinitely= 0.4.
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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S
Sources off Forecast
F Error
E
Some factors that can cause actual purchase patterns to differ from the purchase
intentions expressed in surveys include:
Importance of word-of-mouth:
Fidelity of the concept testing:
Pricing:
Level of promotion:
p
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
Concept Testing process
process, cont
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S 77: Reflect
Step R fl on the
h Results
R l andd the
h Process
P
The primary benefit of the concept test is in getting feedback from real potential
customers.
customers
The team should reflect on this evidence as well as on the numerical outcome of its forecast.
The team benefits from thinking about the impact of the three key variables in the
forecasting model:
1. The overall size of the market
2. The availability and awareness of the product
3. The fraction of customers who are likely to purchase.
Product Concept testing/AAiT/2012
