PETRONAS Activity Outlook 2017-2019
PETRONAS Activity Outlook 2017-2019
ACTIVITY
OUTLOOK
2017-2019
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any OUTLOOK 2017 1
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Cautionary Statement
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any information provided in this
report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part
of its contents.
Forward-looking statements in this report or in subsequent discussions with regards to this report involve
inherent risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these or other uncertainties or risks materialise,
actual results may vary materially from those estimated, anticipated or projected. Specifically, but without
limitation, capital costs could increase, projects could be delayed, and anticipated improvements in capacity,
performance or profit levels might not be fully realised.
Although PETRONAS believes that the expectations of its management as reflected by such forward-looking
statements are reasonable based on information currently available to it, no assurances can be given that
such expectations will prove to have been correct.
Accordingly, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements, which
speak only as of the date they are made. PETRONAS undertakes no obligation to update or revise any of
them, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
2 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................... 4
Introduction.................................................................................................................................................... 5
Outlook Methodology.................................................................................................................................. 6
A. Drilling Rigs
Category Overview......................................................................................................................... 16
3-year-Outlook.................................................................................................................................17
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)............................................................................................ 18
D. Hook-Up & Commissioning and Topside Major Maintenance (HUC and TMM)
D1. Hook-Up & Commissioning (HUC)
Category Overview......................................................................................................................... 31
3-year-Outlook................................................................................................................................ 32
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)............................................................................................ 33
E. Marine Vessels
Category Overview......................................................................................................................... 37
3-year-Outlook................................................................................................................................38
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)............................................................................................ 39
F. Plant Turnround
Category Overview.........................................................................................................................40
3-year-Outlook................................................................................................................................ 41
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)............................................................................................42
Glossary........................................................................................................................................................43
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
FOREWORD
Samsudin Miskon
Vice President
Group Procurement
In this Report, we provide the general industry overview and a demand outlook for 8
prioritised categories - 7 in Upstream and 1 in Downstream. These are believed to be
good leading indicators for a broad range of activities and are able to provide a general
sense of direction, even to players in many adjacent categories.
We believe that signaling the market would help to re-balance the supply-demand
dynamics, push for collaboration among players and encourage new players in
emerging categories. With this, we hope to build a more efficient and resilient
domestic oil and gas industry, and push for a more effective engagement between
PETRONAS and our vendors.
While we have put in our best effort to provide a good representation of the market
outlook and demand, we advise all industry players to use their own judgment in
making business decisions.
We are pleased to inform you that this Report will be released annually, to provide you
with timely and relevant information on PETRONAS requirements moving forward.
Thank you.
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
4 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
INTRODUCTION
The PETRONAS Activity Outlook 2017-2019 Report is produced to improve visibility on
future activities within the Oil & Gas industry in Malaysia, with the intention of assisting
Oil & Gas Services and Equipment (OGSE) vendors to execute better and more
effective planning of their resources and investments, particularly for project-driven
activities that are prone to demand spikes.
The mid-to long-term view of the Report promotes diversification, where vendors
would have better line of sight on emerging project requirements, and can spot
expansion and diversification activities.
Sections Description
1A
Current State-of-
Recap current oil price and market dynamics
the-Industry
1B
Industry Overview
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
OUTLOOK METHODOLOGY
Scope of Coverage
For Upstream-related information, the Report covers the activity outlook for Malaysia.
This includes activities from PETRONAS Group of Companies and other Petroleum
Arrangement Contractors (PACs). Activities governed under the Malaysia-Thailand
Joint Development Area (MTJDA) are excluded from this Report.
For Downstream-related information, this Report covers the activity outlook for
PETRONAS Group of Companies in Malaysia only.
Time Horizon
The Report provides information on activities within a 3-year period, from 2017 to
2019. Information is accounted for when a specific activity begins, and not by contract
award. For example, for construction related activities, we report the date of first steel-
cut instead of the date of Engineering, Procurement, Construction, Installation and
Commissioning (EPCIC) contract award.
The Report includes activities which may have been contracted at the time of
reporting. Optimisation or sequencing efforts (e.g., impact of contracting strategy or
long-term activity sequence) are excluded from this Report. Additionally, multi-year
activities are not reflected. For example, an installation project from December 2017 to
January 2018 only accounted for once in 2017.
The Report also provides directional narratives for the medium-term (i.e., post-2019),
to support outlook analysis.
Outlook for most categories are provided via an upper and lower band based on:
Degree of project maturity e.g., higher certainty on projects under execution
vs. projects under study
Certainty of requirement e.g., higher certainty on vessels to support
production/operations vs. vessels to support new development projects
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
6 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
SECTION
1 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Current State-of-the-Industry
Changing global market conditions have resulted in lower, more volatile oil prices.
Before the oil price collapsed in 2014, prices were hovering above US$100 per barrel.
Since then, prices took a plunge, reaching a floor of US$26 per barrel in early 2016.
Modest recovery has been observed over the past 12 months. However, most industry
analysts do not expect a return to the days of US$100 per barrel oil in the near future.
The new normal seems to be closer to ~US$50-60 per barrel.
0
Oct 14
Oct 16
Oct 13
Oct 15
Jan 14
Jan 16
Jan 13
Jan 15
Apr 14
Apr 13
Apr 15
Apr 16
Jan 17
Apr 17
Jul 14
Jul 16
Jul 13
Jul 15
1
Source: Platts; Bloomberg
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
In the Upstream sector, projects are becoming unprofitable, with many players facing
the brunt of the impact of low oil prices. Many Malaysian projects have been deferred
or cancelled altogether.
Upstream projects are also becoming increasingly complex and requiring higher
capital expenditure and technical expertise. Projects of this nature are not economic at
current prices.
Local Upstream players have seen share prices declined by ~67% on average since
June 2014, compared to their global peers which saw an average decline of ~40%
Figure 3: 2014-17 share price comparison between top Malaysian & global OGSE
companies2 (Index=100)
150
100
40%
50
67%
0
Jun14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17
In the Downstream sector, players are actively investing (despite the volatility in refining
margins) to prepare for market improvements in the long term. For example, Sinopec
Corporation continues expanding its downstream business. Closer to home, Saudi
Aramco recently agreed to invest US$7 billion in PETRONAS RAPID project.
2
Based on top OGSE companies by market cap including global companies (e.g., Schlumberger, Halliburton,
Baker Hughes) and local companies (SapuraKencana, Bumi Armada, Yinson)
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
8 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Market Outlook
Based on industry analyst reports, oil prices are expected to average around US$50-
60/barrel. However, there are several factors which may cause this outlook to vary.
Figure 4 below outlines the key positive and negative growth drivers for market
outlook. However, it is important to note that the following drivers are non-exhaustive;
rather, they are used to illustrate factors which may be considered.
Figure 4
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Strategic Direction
PETRONAS is steadfast in its direction and has a clear and robust strategy to weather
changes in the external environment. In the Upstream sector, PETRONAS will continue
to strive for sustainable value-driven production and operations.
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
10 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Portfolio Outlook
Average 5-year domestic capital expenditure (CAPEX) for FY 2012-2016 was RM36
Billion per annum, with approximately 60% spent on Upstream activities.
50
41
39
36
35
32 12
31
28 20
21 23
25
11
6 6 8
4 3 3 4 4
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 16
Avg.
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
For Upstream, an average of ~ 1.7Mboe/d production is forecasted over the next
five years.
Production volumes are set to fall slightly over the next 3-5 years to around 1.7
Mboe/d, down from a peak of 1.8 Mboe/d in 2016. New developments will drive
activities across many core OGSE categories and also lead to a spill-over effect across
others.
2.0
1.5
New developments will
drive activities across
many core OGSE
categories and also lead
1.0 to a spill-over effect
across others
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
12 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
We have a steady stream of projects achieving first production in the next 3 years.
Upstream sector has a robust pipeline of projects focused on developing new growth
areas or Greenfield Projects and maximising ultimate recovery of existing fields or
Brownfield Projects.
Figure 7
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
SECTION
CATEGORY-SPECIFIC
2 OUTLOOK
Introduction
Section 2 of this Report provides an activity outlook for prioritised categories. The
selection of these categories is underpinned by 4 guiding principles:
Core Oil & Gas activity: They represent fundamental activities in Oil & Gas
operations in Malaysia.
Nature of business: They require advanced planning due to high capital outlay and
long-lead times
Based on these guiding principles, 8 categories have been identified and selected.
These categories are leading indicators for activities in the Oil & Gas industry; comprise
of 7 Upstream categories and 1 Downstream category:
Drilling Rigs
Engineering Design & Consultancy (EDC)
Offshore Fabrication
Offshore Installation
Floating Offshore Facilities (Floaters)
Hook-up & Commissioning and Topside Major Maintenance (HUC and TMM)
Marine Vessels
Plant Turnaround
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
14 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Figure 8 below shows the linkages between the Categories within Upstream sector,
whilst Plant Turnaround is on standalone basis for Downstream sector.
Upstream
Downstream
Exploration Developm ent Production
A F
Drilling Rigs
No. of Jackups Plant
No. of TADRs Turnaround
No. of
Combined due to interdependent activity under man-hours
New Development Projects
B D
Engineering Design and Offshore Installation HUC & TMM1
Offshore Fabrication No. of heavy lift No. of man-hours
No. of topsides & jackets campaigns
for CPPs & WHPs No. of floatover
campaigns E
No. of pipelay barge Marine Vessels
campaigns No. of AHTS
No. of PSVs/SSVs
No. of FCBs
Moving forward, activity outlook of other categories may be included in future releases
of the Report.
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any OUTLOOK 2017 15
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
A. Drilling Rigs
Category Overview
Drilling Rigs are used to drill exploration and development wells, and typically comprise
four (4) types:
Jackup Rigs
Tender Assisted Drilling Rigs (TADRs)
Semi-Submersible Rigs
Drilliships
For the purpose of this Report, activity outlook will be provided for the most widely-
used drilling rig types in Malaysia i.e., Jackup Rigs and TADRs.
Figure 9
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
16 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
Over the next 3 years, the number of Jackup Rigs and TADRs are expected to remain
relatively stable, with an average of ~10 rigs per annum.
10
10 9 9 10
7
6 6
5 5 3
2 2
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Activity for Jackup Rigs in the low case is supported by expected base load activity,
in order to fulfill exploration/commitment well obligations and to meet production
targets via new development wells.
The number of TADRs are expected to remain relatively constant over the next 3 years,
for the drilling of development wells activitiy. Based on this, no low case is provided.
Note: Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any OUTLOOK 2017 17
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
Unless a significant uptick in future oil price occur, rig activity for both Jackup Rigs
and TADRs is expected to remain at a steady level in the medium-term, sufficient to
support PETRONAS drive for value-driven production.
Figure 11 below outlines growth drivers that could potentially vary medium-term
outlook
Negative
growth No downward activity pressure is
drivers expected given that rig count is already
at the minimun, it is therefore unlikely to
decrease much further
Figure 11
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
18 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
B. New Development Projects
3 categories are grouped under this major area, given that its activity is mainly driven
by new development projects (Greenfield):
Engineering Design & Consultancy (EDC): Refers to the Detailed Design phase,
post-Conceptual Engineering and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED)
To note, HUC (part of EPCIC projects) is captured as a separate category to reflect both
Greenfield and Brownfield projects.
For the purpose of this Report, please refer to Subsection B1 for EDC and Offshore
Fabrication activity, and Subsection B2 for Offshore Installation activity.
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
B1. EDC and Offshore Fabrication
Category Overview
While EDC and Offshore Fabrication are clustered together due to its similar indicators
for activity, both categories cover different types of work. The categories are the first
stage of EPCIC activities for offshore facilities.
Figure 12 below provides a brief overview of Wellhead Platforms (WHPs) and Central
Processing Platforms (CPPs).
Figure 12
3
Our coverage excludes compression modules and other smaller structures (e.g., risers)
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
20 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
Figure 13 below provides the expected number of WHP Topsides and Jackets required
in the next 3 years, where offshore fabrication activity for WHP Topsides and Jackets is
expected to peak at ~15 000 MT in 2018
# of structures # of structures
10 10
10 1 10
3
High Case
5 9 5
7
2 2
1 1 1
1
0 0
2017 2018 2019
2017 2018 2019
Total metric
tonnes (MT) ~ 0.7 k ~ 6.8 k ~ 1.7 k ~ 0.5 k ~ 8.7 k ~ 1.8 k
# of structures # of structures
10 10
8 8
1
Low Case
5 5
7
6
1 1
0 0
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2017 2019
Total metric
tonnes (MT) ~ 0.7 k ~ 5.2 k - ~ 0.5 k ~ 8.7 k ~ 1.8 k
Note:
1. Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
2. Activities in the low case are derived by excluding projects with lower degree of maturity
3. Weight provided above excludes piles and conductors
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Figure 14 below provides the expected number of CPP Topsides and Jackets required
in the next 3 years, where offshore fabrication activity for CPP Topsides and Jackets is
expected to peak at ~35 000 MT in 2018.
1
1 1
1 1
2 1 2
1
0 0 1
0 0
2017 2018 2019
2017 2018 2019
Total metric Total metric
tonnes (MT) - ~ 21 k ~ 1.1 k tonnes (MT) -- ~ 14.5 k ~ 0.4 k
Legend: Heavy (7.5k MT-<15k MT) Medium (1k MT-<7.5k MT) Light (<1k MT)
Note:
1. Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
2. No high / low case is depicted here, given that all projects have a similar degree of maturity
3. Weight provided above excludes piles and conductors
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
22 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
B2. Offshore Installation
Category Overview
Category outlook is provided for the 3 types of barges typically used for Offshore
Installation.
Figure 15
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
Figure 16: Number of heavy lift, floatover and pipelay campaigns (2017-2019)
7 5
5 5 5 4
3
2 4 2
1
0 0
0 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Note:
1. Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
2. Activities in the low case are derived by excluding projects with lower degree of maturity
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
24 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
However, the scale of activities per project may be smaller than 2017-2019 (e.g.,
smaller WHP size), in line with the smaller scale of planned facilities
Figure 17 outlines growth drivers that could potentially vary medium-term outlook
Figure 17
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
C. Floating Offshore Facilities (Floaters)
Category Overview
Figure 18
Additionally, FPSOs and FSOs may be used in deepwater activities (when economic
thresholds are met).
4
MOPUs are considered floaters due to its ability to be towed to the oilfield without the use of barges
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
26 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
In Malaysia, vendors involved in the Floater categories mainly cover the following
services:
Supply of Floaters: Sold or leased (with an option to buy) to Petroleum Arrangement
Contractors (PACs). Floaters are fabricated via 3 main methods - conversions5,
retrofitting/refurbishment and newbuilds (i.e., purpose-built)
Operations & Maintenance (O&M) Services: Covers technical activities (e.g., systems
& equipment maintenance, crew competency and safety training, offshore oil
storage, offloading and shuttle tanker management)
This Report only focuses on the supply of Floaters, as it comprises the bulk of Floater
contracts (O&M services often contracted as an additional bolt-on6).
5
Conversions (typically converted from oil tankers for FPSOs/FSOs, & Jackup Rigs for MOPUs)
6
PACs usually outsource O&M services to a third party (e.g., EPOMs)
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
0 0 0
Storage 2017 2018 2019 Storage 2017 2018 2019 Metric 2017 2018 2019
capacity capacity tonnes
(bbls) - 500k 1,500k (bbls) - - 340k (bbls) - - ~21 k
Figure 19
Note:
1. Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
2. No high / low case is depicted here, given that all projects have a similar degree of maturity.
7
Conversions (typically converted from oil tankers for FPSOs/FSOs, & jackup rigs for MOPUs)
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
28 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
In view of current market conditions, limited growth prospects are expected for
Floater.
Figure 20 outlines growth drivers that could potentially vary medium-term outlook
Negative
growth
drivers Change in operating philosophy e.g., high
usage of fixed platform for marginal field
developments instead of Floaters.
Figure 20
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
D. Hook-up & Commissioning and
Topside Major Maintenance (HUC and TMM)
Both HUC and TMM are grouped under the same category, as both generally have
similar manpower and equipment requirements.
Notwithstanding the above, HUC and TMM can be distinguished by the type of
activities it covers, as illustrated in Figure 21 below.
Figure 21
Given that both HUC and TMM activities are labour intensive, activity outlook is stated
in man-hour units.
For the purposes of this Report, please refer to Subsection D1 for HUC activity and
Subsection D2 for TMM activity
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
30 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
D1. Hook-up & Commissioning
Category Overview
HUC covers activities involving the interconnection, inspection & testing and
commissioning of equipments/systems once they are positioned and installed. This
can be classified under 2 activity types:
This Report will focus on a defined set of Greenfield & Brownfield HUC activity, as per
Figure 22 below.
Greenfield
HUC-related activities for newly installed WHPs & CPPs
HUC
Figure 22
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year Outlook
Man-hours (Millions)
6
4
4
3 3
3
2
2 2
0
2017 2018 2019
To note, activities in the low case take into account the following assumptions:
Greenfield HUC: Excludes platforms with lower probability of being fabricated.
Brownfield HUC: Assumes lesser man-hour requirements on the back of tighter
cost-cutting measures (i.e., lesser number of days required per campaign / activity,
fewer number of people hired / contracted).
Brownfield HUC activity makes up the bulk of total PETRONAS HUC activity
- Specifically, this is driven by HUC-related works associated with general topside
modification
Greenfield HUC activity mainly takes place in 2017
- This is driven by work associated with relatively high number of newly fabricated
platforms in 2015-16
Note: Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
32 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
HUC activity is projected to gradually increase in line with oil prices, where the bulk is
expected to be driven by development activity.
Brownfield activity should continue on current trajectory
Greenfield activity should rebound as new platfoms are installed
Figure 24 below outlines growth drivers that could potentially vary medium-term
outlook
Figure 24
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
D2. Topside Major Maintenance (TMM)
Category Overview
TMM covers activities related to the repair and maintenance of existing topside
facilities.
TMM contracts cover an accumulated set of activities that can be executed within a
single campaign:
Such accumulation of activities is driven by financial & operational efficiency
reasons
Generally, there are two types of TMM activities, as illustrated in Figure 25 below.
Figure 25
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
34 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
Man-hours (Millions)
16
12 12
12
10
10 10
8 9
0
2017 2018 2019
Note: Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any OUTLOOK 2017 35
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
TMM activities are projected to continue its steady increase, on the back of the
increasing average age of platforms
Notwithstanding the above, several factors will cause this outlook to revise upwards/
downwards:
Figure 27 outlines growth drivers that could potentially vary medium-term outlook
Figure 27
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
36 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
E. Marine Vessels
Category Overview
Marine Vessels offer a wide range of support services for exploration and development
drilling, installation, HUC & production operations. The following list of vessels is
covered within this category:
Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessels
Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs), Straight Supply Vessels (SSVs)
Fast Crew Boats (FCBs)
Standby Safety Vessels, General Purpose Vessels, Utility Vessels
AHTS, PSVs/SSVs and FCBs are the 3 most widely-used vessel types. Figure 28 below
provides a brief overview of its functions.
Figure 28
PETRONAS ACTIVITY
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
3 PSVs/SSVs FCBs
# of Vessels # of Vessels
100 100
~55 ~50 ~55
50 ~35 ~35 ~35 50
~45 ~40 ~45
0 ~25 ~25 ~25 0
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Note:
1. Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
2. Low case reflects the level of uncertainty in rig, installation and HUC activity.
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arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
The number of Marine Vessels is expected to remain stable, in order to cater for
existing operations:
~50-70% of activity required to support existing facilities is expected to remain
constant
While the level of activity required to support new development projects may
increase, it is unlikely for it to recover to historical high levels
Figure 30 outlines growth drivers that could potentially vary medium-term outlook
Figure 30
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
F. Plant Turnaround
Category Overview
Turnarounds are scheduled periodically and are important for the following reasons:
To ensure timely renewal of Certificate of Fitness (CF) by authorities
To maximise plant efficiency and capacity
To ensure that the plant and its equipment are reliable & safe to operate, in line with
health and safety industry best practices
To note, this Report refers to activities driven by PETRONAS Group of Companies only.
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40 OUTLOOK 2017
PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
3-year-Outlook
Strong demand is expected for turnaround across Malaysia, with 12-17 total
turnarounds per year, as indicated in Figure 31 below.
17 6.7
1 0.4
15 14 6
4
3 12 4.7
1
0.4
10
1
4 3.8
5
4
3
1.2 6.3
3 4.3
5 5 2
7 2.6
4
2
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Please note that RAPID is not included in the 3-year outlook, as its first turnaround is
expected to occur post-2019.
While turnaround schedules are compliant with industry regulations, there remains a
slight possibility of deferment/rescheduling7, depending on operational requirements.
Note: Outlook includes activities which may have been contracted out at the time of reporting
7
Any rescheduling or deferment of turnaround will most likely occur within a year, therefore minimal/no impact on
our model figures, which are calculated annually
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PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any OUTLOOK 2017 41
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Medium-term Outlook (post-2019)
Post-2019, RAPID will cause a significant increase in turnaround activities, due to the
size of its operations. The RAPID project is scheduled to come online by 2019, and thus
will require turnaround work between 2020-2022.
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42 OUTLOOK 2017
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Glossary
Term Definition
Barrel A standard unit of measurement for oil production. One barrel contains 159
litres of oil.
Barrels of Oil A unit of measurement to quantify the amount of crude oil, condensates
Equivalent (boe) and natural gas. Natural gas volumes are converted to barrels on the basis of
energy content.
Brent Price The benchmark crude oil price in Europe, as traded on the International
Petroleum Exchange in London. Brent crude refers to a particular grade of
crude oil, which is slightly heavier than WTI crude. See WTI price.
Deepwater We define deepwater projects as those in water depths exceeding 450 ft.
Unique methods are required to produce the oil and gas from the ocean bed
at such depths. See Floating Production Unit.
Development Drilling, construction and related activities following discovery that are
necessary to begin production and transportation of crude oil andnatural gas.
Downstream All segments of a value chain that add value to the crude oil and natural
gas produced, for example, oil refining, gas processing, gas liquefaction,
petrochemical manufacturing, marketing of petroleum and petrochemical
products, storage and transportation.
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
Glossary
Term Definition
Enhanced Oil Any method(s) applied to productive reservoirs in order to increase production
Recovery (EOR) rates and to improve the overall recovery factor.
Exploration The search for crude oil and/or natural gas by geological and topographical
studies, geophysical and seismic surveys, and drilling of wells.
Floating, Storage A converted or custom-built ship-like structure for temporary storage of the
and Offloading oil prior to transfer to tankers.
(FSO)
Petrochemicals Organic and inorganic compounds and mixtures derived from petroleum,
used principally to manufacture chemicals, plastics and resins, synthetic fibres,
detergents, adhesives and synthetic motor oils.
Upstream The segment of value chain pertaining to finding, developing and producing
crude oil and natural gas. These include oil and gas exploration, development
and production operations; also known as Exploration & Production (E&P).
WTI Price Stands for West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark crude oil price in the US,
measured in USD per barrel, which refers to a type of high quality light crude
oil
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information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.
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PETRONAS makes no representation on the accuracy or completeness of any
information provided in this report and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever
arising from, or in reliance upon, the whole or any part of its contents.