An Analysis of Determinants of Going Concern Audit Opinion: Evidence From Spain Stock Exchange
An Analysis of Determinants of Going Concern Audit Opinion: Evidence From Spain Stock Exchange
An Analysis of Determinants of Going Concern Audit Opinion: Evidence From Spain Stock Exchange
IC, 2016 12(1): 1-16 Online ISSN: 1697-9818 Print ISSN: 2014-3214
http://dx.doi.org/10.3926/ic.683
Abstract
Purpose: The main objective of this article is to go in-depth into the relationship
between going concern audit opinion and certain characteristics of the company and
auditor, including financial decline.
Design/methodology/approach: A Logit analysis was carried out in order to enable
us to discover the probability of receiving a going concern audit opinion.
Findings: Characteristics of the company and characteristics of the auditor are
discussed, and the analysis indicates that it is not financial decline, but rather
registering losses and being audited by a small-scale auditor, that increase the
likelihood of a company receiving a going concern audit opinion.
Practical implications: The results obtained are interesting for the profession and
users because they provide evidence of the reasons that converge in the cases where a
going concern audit opinion is included in the auditing reports of companies
characterised by being immersed in a financial crisis.
Originality/value: This article considers the circumstances of both the company and
the auditing process, which influence the fact that the auditing report includes a going
concern audit opinion. In addition, the article includes the financial decline, and let us to
analyze if the decline of the companys financial position between t-1 and t causes the
auditor to include a going concern audit opinion.
Keywords: Audit, financial decline, going concern audit opinion
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1. Introduction
In compiling financial statements, the presumption that the company will maintain its activity
in the future, plays an important role. The going concern accounting principle acts as a basis
for most of the assessment and recognition criteria used in accountancy, and therefore, the
financial information is drawn up on this hypothesis. It is normal for those users who trust
auditors to assess the degree in which this principle has been fulfilled, to consider the going
concern audit opinion very important since it can lead to alerting significant uncertainties, such
as for example, possible bankruptcy.
In spite of the above, auditors are sometimes reticent about doubting the continuity of the
company, (Arnedo, Lizarraga, Snchez & Ruiz, 2012) and this suggests that his declarations
can bring negative consequences, both for the auditor and the actual company. On the one
hand, it would bring the auditors consideration into question, and on the other hand, including
a going concern audit opinion could accelerate the companys bankruptcy process.
Financial information users expect the auditor to inform on a real situation and the companys
true and fair view, and if there is financial decline, the auditor will express this in the
corresponding auditing report. However, it does not always happen this way, and the auditor
can be reticent about including a going concern audit report. True and fair view in auditing
means that the financial statements are free from material misstatements and faithfully
represent the financial performance and position of the entity.
The reasons for reticence that usually occur in the financial years immediately before a going
concern audit opinion, are as follows:
Pressure from the client, who is aware that a going concern audit report can jeopardise
the companys current position even further. The perception by shareholders of a
companys negative position can have very serious consequences such as for example,
a lack of confidence from the shareholders which could lead to selling shares and
therefore, a significant loss of company capital in a very short period. Therefore, the
company will try to delay the going concern audit opinion as long as possible, by
persuading the auditor and showing him viability plans that project an improvement in
the companys position in the mid-term.
The auditors confidence in the company who, acting in good faith and rationally, trusts
that the company can come out of the difficult situation it is currently in. He will try to
delay the going concern audit opinion as much as possible to not jeopardise the
company, giving it time to improve its position. Once the auditor determines that the
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crisis the company is in is irreversible, the auditor will include the going concern audit
opinion.
Finally, including a going concern audit opinion can, at the same time, condition the
development of the auditing firm. It may happen that an auditing company with a high
number of going concern audit opinions in its reports ends up being considered
susceptible to them by the companies contracting their services. This could lead to a
reduced sales volume in these companies, particularly in small-size firms, because
many clients would change to firms that are less likely to have going concern audit
reports.
Despite reticences, there comes a time when the decision to include the going concern audit
opinion in the report cannot be postponed any longer in terms of risk. This is when the auditor
obliges the company to adjust its balance sheets downwards to justify the going concern audit
report.
By adjusting downwards we basically mean, stricter behaviour from the auditor who
encourages revealing hidden liabilities and eliminating overpriced assets that may be reflected
in the balance sheet to show a more solvent image.
There are auditors who have proved that including a going concern audit opinion in the report
coincides with a sudden decline in the companys financial position (Rosner, 2003). It has been
argued that this sudden decline is caused by the demands of the auditor, who forces all the
assets and liabilities being reflected in the balance sheet, and their value according to the
valuation rules and principles (Arnedo et al., 2012). In these cases, receiving a going concern
audit opinion will produce a surprise effect on the information users, as they are not expecting
their accounts to decline so suddenly.
In this paper, we will test, whether in practice, the auditor waits until the last moment before
including a going concern audit opinion on the companys future, in accounts that show a
sudden financial decline, or whether on the other hand, the financial decline observed in the
annual accounts takes place gradually and the auditor acts correctly by including a going
concern audit opinion when he really concludes that there is uncertainty regarding the
companys continuity.
the going concern audit opinion is received. If so, it would mean that the worsened position
reflected on the balance sheet, was the result of a downwards accounting adjustment forced
by the auditor.
Starting with the sample of selected companies with going concern audit report, we will
ascertain how many companies have experienced a financial decline in the year that they
receive the going concern audit report. The causes of this will be analysed and it will be
checked to see whether the decline can be associated to a company profile or pattern,
indicating a general formula, or whether they are simply isolated cases.
Return on Assets (ROA). Calculated as the net result between the total assets. We
expect a negative ratio (or the other way around) with respect to the probability of
receiving a going concern audit opinion, i.e., the more positive the economic
profitability ratio, the lower the probability of the company receiving a going concern
audit opinion.
Short-term Debt Ratio (Debt). This will be the short-term indebtedness ratio, since this
is the biggest risk and the most usual among Spanish companies. Short-term debts are
divided between the total debt and obviously, the expected ratio regarding the
probability of receiving a going concern audit opinion, is positive.
Current Ratio (CR). This is calculated by finding the ratio resulting from dividing the
current assets among the current liabilities. There are some exceptions, but generally a
negative ratio is expected with regard to the probability of receiving a going concern
audit opinion.
Liquidity Ratio (LIQ). Calculated on the basis of the ratio of the amount available
between the current assets. The expected ratio with respect to receiving the going
concern audit opinion is negative.
Size (SIZE). This will be the measurement referring to the size of the company,
expressed in volume of assets. It will be expressed with the Naperian logarithm function
to harmonise the units.
At the same time, a dichotomous variable is added that tells us if the company has had
losses or negative financial year results (LOSS). It will take value 1 if it has had losses,
or value 0 if it has not.
Empirical research works that have analysed the circumstances that lead the auditor to issue a
going concern audit opinion, highlight the companys financial position as the main explanatory
factor (Geiger & Raghunandan, 2002).
Finally, regarding the economic-financial variables that take information from the financial
statements of entities, the financial decline variable has been taken into account. This
variable is developed in the section 3.2 below.
The second group of variables that will be included in the study are exogenous variables that
will gather the defining characteristics associated with the work of the auditor, both in relation
to his competence and his independence. The variables corresponding to this group, are as
follows:
Big auditor (BIG): this is a dichotomous variable that will take value 1 if the auditor
belongs to one of the four multinational auditing firms, the so-called Big Four.
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Namely: Deloitte, PricewaterhouseCooppers, Ernst and Young and KPMG. The greater
international presence of the big firms has enhanced the reputation of these companies.
This formation of an image of a superior brand has been defended by studies showing
that if it is one of the four big ones that is auditing the company accounts, the company
will be more likely to receive a going concern audit opinion, and also higher fees will be
paid to the auditors. (Defond, Raghunandan & Subramanyam, 2002). Therefore, we
expect a positive ratio between the probability of receiving a going concern audit
opinion and the BIG variable.
The delay in issuing the auditing report (DEL). The decision to issue a non-clean report
occurs after intense meetings between the company management and the auditor,
whereby, we can understand that if there is a certain delay in issuing the report, the
probability of this report including a going concern audit opinion increases. Also, the
auditor will intensify the tests to be carried out if he detects possible continuity
problems, which will increase the delay in issuing the report (Geiger, Raghunandan &
Rama, 2005). This variable will result from calculating the days between the close of
the financial year and the date the auditing report is signed. This variable will tend to
have a positive ratio with respect to the probability of receiving a going concern audit
opinion.
The relative size of the client (TRC). When the client represents a high percentage of
the auditing firms turnover, the auditor in charge of the process will be more reticent to
issuing a going concern audit opinion than if this percentage were low. This data is
calculated by dividing the clients sales figure between the auditing firms total turnover
volume. The ratio between the TRC variable and the probability of receiving a going
concern audit opinion is negative, since the greater the TRC, the lower the probability of
receiving a going concern audit opinion.
Thanks to the information from the annual accounts and the auditing firms, all the independent
variables included in this model could be calculated accurately.
future. There are several possible coefficient combinations that would vary according to the
type of companies. In our case we will use the combination of private and large size
companies. The Altman Z-Score model used is:
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Chi-square
54.869
gl
Sig.
9
.000
The tests on the model coefficients show that the results obtained are significant.
R2 de Cox y Snell
.681
R2 de Nagelkerke
.908
In the summary of the model, it can be seen that the adjustment measurements are good,
with high values for the R2 coefficients.
Prediction
Going concern
Correct
audit opinion
percentage
No
Yes
23
1
95.8
0
24
100.0
97.9
Observed
Step 1
Going concern
No
audit opinion
Yes
Overall percentage
Also, it can be seen that the model predicts well with 97.9% correct scores.
ZCR
ZLIQ
ZSize
ZTRC
ZDelay
ZFinancial_Decline
Loss
Big
ZROA
B
-2.989
-15.020
0.513
-24.237
-0.242
0.266
130.117
-137.116
-1.007
E.T.
3.975
24.610
1.267
73.060
0.994
0.996
2644.252
2644.791
1.198
Wald
0.565
0.372
0.164
0.110
0.060
0.071
0.002
0.003
0.706
-8-
gl
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Sig.
.452
.542
.686
.740
.807
.789
.961
.959
.401
Exp(B)
.050
.000
1.671
.000
.785
1.305
3.229E+56
.000
.365
Table 4 shows the variables in the equation and shows that the probability of a going concern
audit opinion not occurring increases if the analysed companies have:
Greater liquidity
Smaller size
No losses
Step
1
Chi square
3.049
gl
7
Sig.
.880
Step 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
8
The Hosmer Lemeshow adjustment measurement is appropriate, whereby the hypothesis that
the model is true is not rejected, given that the p-value of the contrast is high.
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the results show that, when determining which variables influence the auditor the most to
issue a going concern audit opinion, these are as follows:
So that having losses and being auditing by a small auditing firm means that it is more likely
that a company receives a going concern audit opinion.
Observed
Going concern audit
opinion
Overall percentage
No
Yes
Prediction
Going concern audit
Correct
opinion
percentage
No
Yes
20
4
83.3
0
24
100.0
91.7
The adjustment values are still appropriate both with respect to the R coefficients and the
predictive behaviour (91.7% success), and with respect to the Hosmer and Lemeshow
contrast.
Model equation:
logit(P(SEF=Si)) = 22.268 * Loss - 21.495 * ZBig
Tables 8 and 9 show the descriptive statistics of the variables included in the study. The model
indicates the differences in the average, between the group of companies that have received a
going concern audit opinion (Yes) and those that have not received one (No), and the greater
or lesser differences reveal the importance of the variables.
N
ROA
Short-term debt ratio
Current Ratio (CR)
Liquidity ratio
Size (Ln(Assets)
100* Relative size of
Client
Delay in Report
Loss
Auditor Size (BIG)
N valid (acc. to list)
48
48
48
48
48
48
.0000
95.1904
48
48
48
48
20
0.00%
0.00%
333
100.00%
100.00%
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Dev. typ.
.1942273
.2900421
4.6502313
1.3508773
1.6952470
2.442454 13.7737027
90.52
52.08%
75.00%
53.645
50.49%
43.76%
ROA
Short-term debt ratio
Current Ratio (CR)
Liquidity ratio
Loss
Size (Ln(Assets))
100* Relative size of
Client
Auditor Size (BIG)
Delay in Report
Going
concern
audit
opinion
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Average
Dev. Typ.
Error typ.
Of the
average
24
.051642
.1023055 .0208830
24 -.0166263
.2045701 .0417577
24
.535541
.2879328 .0587740
24
.526450
.2982582 0.608817
24 1.682411 1.8206038 .3716292
24 2.328640 6.3762859 1.3015539
24
.313330
.4406644 .0899502
24
.469113 1.8767617 .3830924
24
12.50%
33.78%
6.90%
24
91.67%
28.23%
5.76%
24 13.185237 1.6075743 .3281447
24 12.477045 1.7397442 .3551238
24 4.675935 19.4142754 3.9629224
24
.208973
.5945635 .1213648
24
95.83%
230.41%
4.17%
24
54.17%
50.90%
10.39%
24
79.04
47.717
9.740
24
102.00
57.695
11.777
Having losses in the year when the report is made is the most important variable. It is
observed that 91.67% of the companies with going concern audit opinion had shown losses.
Also, significant differences are observed in the average in return on assets, Current Ratio,
Liquidity ratio and the Relative size of the Client (where it is higher in the companies that have
not going concern audit opinion). Also, between the companies that have not received a going
concern audit opinion, 95.83% were audited by large auditing firms and the reports including a
going concern audit opinion were delayed in time with respect to those who do not have a
going concern audit opinion. The differences in the average are not significant in the Shortterm debt ratio.
No
Going concern
audit opinion
Yes
Total
Recount
% within
Auditor*Losses
% of the total
Recount
% within
Auditor*Losses
% of the total
Recount
% within
Auditor*Losses
% of the total
Auditor*Losses
Small
Big
Small with
without
without
losses
losses
losses
1
0
20
Big with
losses
Total
24
33.33%
0.00%
100.00%
18.75%
50.00%
2.08%
2
0.00%
9
41.67%
0
6.25%
13
50.00%
24
66.67%
100.00%
0.00%
81.25%
50.00%
4.17%
3
18.75%
9
0.00%
20
27.08%
16
50.00%
48
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00% 100.00%
6.25%
AP0
18.75%
AP1
41.67%
AP2
33.33% 100.00%
AP3
Table 10. Going concern audit opinion vs. auditor size and losses
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Table 10 shows the qualitative variables auditor size and company with loses with crossed
frequency data. It is significant to see that 100% of the cases in the sample where the auditor
is a small firm and the company shows losses, have received a going concern audit opinion.
Step 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Table 11. Contingency table for the Hosmer and Lemeshow test
Observed
Step 1
Going
No
concern
audit
Yes
opinion
Overall percentage
Prediction
Going concern audit
Correct
opinion
percentage
No
Yes
22
2
91.7
5
19
79.2
85.4
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Expected
23
Total
Expected
23.000
13
13.000
36
1.000
11
11.000
12
Classification table
Prediction
Going concern
audit opinion
Observed
No
Step 1
Going
concern
audit
opinion
Correct
percentage
Yes
No
23
95.8
Yes
13
11
45.8
Overall percentage
70.8
Classification table
B
Step 1a
Auditor
size
Constant
E.T.
Wald
gl
Sig.
Exp(B)
-2.968
1.101
7.274
.007
.051
2.398
1.044
5.271
.022
11.000
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Step 1
Observed
No
Step 1
Going
No
concern
audit
Yes
opinion
Overall percentage
Step 1a Losses
Constant
Total
23
25
Correct
percentage
Yes
21
87.5
22
91.7
89.6
Variables in the
B
E.T.
4.344
.963
-2.351
.740
equation
Wald
20.368
10.096
gl
1
1
Sig.
Exp(B)
.000
77.000
.001
.095
5. Conclusions
This work comes under the framework of the study on the Going Concern and on the auditors
obligation to determine whether or not there is any material uncertainty to the company
staying in business (NIA-570). We consider the circumstances or qualities of both the company
and the auditing process, which influence the fact that the auditing report includes a going
concern audit opinion.
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We have analysed the variables that determined including a going concern audit opinion, and
particularly if the decline of the companys financial position between t-1 and t causes the
auditor to include a going concern audit opinion.
The empirical work has been developed on the basis of a sample of 48 companies where 24 of
them had a going concern audit report in year t and the other 24 did not. We have formulated
a multivariant logit analysis, including among the variables the decline in the financial position
in the year on which the auditing report is issued.
From the analysis carried out, it is obtained that it is not the sudden financial decline, but
having losses and being audited by a small auditing firm, that makes it likely that a company
receives a going concern audit opinion and, to a lesser extent, when the relative size of the
client is small. This way, the increase in the probability of obtaining a going concern audit
opinion would not be based on the sudden decline in the companys financial position, but on
the persistence of losses. This is the most important reason that puts the companys continuity
at risk, and which would have immediate consequences like the removal of tax credits. Also,
contrary to expectations, the professional auditor being a small firm has not proved to be a
limiting circumstance to receiving a going concern audit opinion, and this could indicate that
auditors, irrespective of belonging or not to one of the big auditing companies, intervene as
professionals and there are no differences between them insofar as issuing a report with a
going concern audit opinion.
As for profitability, we have observed that the more profitable a company, the lower the
probability of receiving a going concern audit opinion, since a profitable company does not
show losses and therefore has no continuity problems. Also, the larger the size of the auditing
company, the lower the probability of it including a going concern audit opinion, which could
indicate that the large size auditing firms can select their clients and, therefore, they can
impose a lower number of going concern audit opinions.
In short, the most important indicator that the auditor has to bear in mind for including a
going concern audit opinion is the continued existence of losses. In cases where these losses
have remained hidden by manipulating the results from previous years, this fact is likely to
cause the auditor to include a going concern audit opinion in the year the report is issued,
when the company position, due to a lack of perspectives or viability plan, prevents it from
continuing in the future.
The results obtained are interesting for the profession and users because they provide
evidence of the reasons that converge in the cases where a going concern audit opinion is
included in the auditing reports of companies characterised by being immersed in a financial
crisis.
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