Learning To Die in The Anthropocene
Learning To Die in The Anthropocene
Learning To Die in The Anthropocene
in the Anthropocene
reflections
on the end of a civilization
Roy Scranton
CONTENTS
Introduction: Coming Home 13
1. Human Ecologies 29
2. A Wicked Problem 39
3. Carbon Politics 55
4. The Compulsion of Strife 69
5. A New Enlightenment 89
Coda: Coming Home 111
Selected Bibliography 119
Endnotes 123
Acknowledgments 139
i nt r o du c t i o n
COMING HOME
The knowledge of future things is, in a word,
identical with that of the present.
Plotinus, Enneads IV.12
Driving into Iraq in 2003 felt like driving into the future.
We convoyed all day, all night, past Army checkpoints and
burned-out tanks, till in the blue dawn Baghdad rose from
the desert like a vision of hell: flames licked the bruised sky
from the tops of refinery towers, cyclopean monuments
bulged and leaned against the horizon, broken overpasses
swooped and fell over ruined suburbs, bombed factories,
and narrow ancient streets.
With shock and awe, the US military had unleashed
the end of the world on a city of six milliona city about the
same size as Houston or Washington, D.C. Baghdads infrastructure was totaled: water, power, traffic, markets, and
security fell to anarchy and local rule. The government had
collapsed, walls were going up, tribal lines were being drawn,
and brutal hierarchies were being savagely established. Over
the next year, the citys secular middle class would disappear,
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challenge.2 James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, told the Senate in 2013 that Extreme weather events
(floods, droughts, heat waves) will increasingly disrupt food
and energy markets, exacerbating state weakness, forcing
human migrations, and triggering riots, civil disobedience,
and vandalism.3 President Obamas 2010 National Security
Strategy, the Pentagons 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review,
and the Department of Homeland Securitys 2014 Quadrennial Homeland Security Review all identify climate change as a
severe and imminent danger.4 More recently, the Pentagons
2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap warned: Rising
global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and
conflict. They will likely lead to food and water shortages,
pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and
destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe.5
On the civilian side, the World Banks 2013 report,
Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and
the Case for Resilience, and their 2014 follow-up Confronting
the New Climate Normal, offer dire prognoses for the effects
of global warming, which climatologists now predict will
raise global temperatures 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels within a generation and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit within 90 years.6 As hotter temperatures liquefy glaciers
and ice sheets from Greenland to Antarctica, all that melted
ice flows into the sea: Some worst-case estimates suggest
we might see seven or eight feet of sea level rise as soon as
2040.7 The collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet alone,
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dioxide (CO2) worldwide right now.13 Projections from researchers at the University of Hawaii find us dealing with
historically unprecedented climates as soon as 2047.14 Climate scientist James Hansen, formerly with NASA, has argued that we face an apocalyptic futurea bleak view that
is seconded by researchers worldwide.15
This chorus of Cassandras predicts a radically changing global climate causing widespread upheaval, and their
visions of doom are backed by an overwhelming preponderance of hard data. Global warming is not the latest version
of a hoary fable of annihilation. It is not hysteria. It is a fact.
And we have likely already passed the point where we could
have done anything about it. From the perspective of many
policy experts, climate scientists, and national security officials, the concern is not whether global warming exists or
how we might prevent it, but how we are going to adapt to
life in the hot, volatile world weve created.
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o ne
HUMAN ECOLOGIES
Ere toc of ere ere wy woh,
Ere oer ere to e ere droh,
Ere leyde ere in erene roh,
o heude ere of ere ere ynoh.
Earth took of Earth, Earth with woe,
Earth other Earth to the Earth drew,
Earth laid Earth in an Earthen trough,
Then had Earth of Earth Earth enough.
Anonymous Middle English Lyric29
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and air power through technologies like mills and sails, and
negligible use of coal and oil.
Then, in 1781, James Watt invented the continuousrotation steam engine. Suddenly power was portable, independent of living beings or natural forces, and able to run
continuously. The steam turbine offered a vast improvement in energy production over wind, water, and animal
labor, but it needed dense, hot-burning fuel for maximum
output. Luckily for Watt, there happened to be loads of the
stuff all over England: fossilized carbon in the form of coal.
Industrial coal changed everything. For the last two
hundred years, just about one tenth of one percent of human existence, most of our energy has come not from direct
photosynthesis but from stored carbon energy in fossil fuels.
Switching from a photosynthetic-based energy economy to
a carbon-based energy economy increased human wealth
beyond what anyone could have possibly imagined, raising
the overall standard of living across the world through such
technologies as diesel-fueled tractors, Haber-process nitrogen-fixed fertilizer, Bessemer steel, railroads, steamships,
airplanes, electric power plants, plastics, the internal combustion engine, and the automobile. It also began a massive transformation of the physical systems regulating life
on Earth. By transferring millions of tons of carbon from
the ground into the air, we have wrought profound changes
in the Earths climate, biosphere, and geology. Average atmospheric CO2 levels have rocketed from 290 ppm to over
400 ppm, a level the planet hasnt seen in more than two
million years. At the same time, methane (CH4) levels have
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