Maple Leafs’ depth at centre (and goal) getting a fierce test: Monday Morning Leafs Report

The Toronto Maple Leafs might have been able to worm their way out of their third loss in four games without Auston Matthews had Pontus Holmberg been able to cash in on a gift-wrapped opportunity and tie Saturday’s game.

Holmberg gets a look on Thompson off the turnover pic.twitter.com/wf6rZTr6Ze

— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 29, 2024

He got another shot in the high slot a few minutes later on a setup from William Nylander but had that attempt blocked by Dylan Strome.

Playing the role of second-line centre in Matthews’ absence, Holmberg ended up logging about 16 minutes in the loss to Washington. It wasn’t the least bit surprising that he looked out of his depth offensively: More than 500 players in the NHL have collected more five-on-five points this season than the four Holmberg has managed so far.

Among the 283 forwards who have logged at least 350 five-on-five minutes, Holmberg is one of only five who have yet to score a five-on-five goal. He is 0-for-17 shooting the puck in those spots.

The Holmberg line also gave up the goal to the Washington fourth line that put the Capitals up for good.

Holmberg’s limitations will only serve to remind GM Brad Treliving of the obvious: The Leafs need help at centre.

It would be a struggle for any team to lose a centre like Matthews, top three in the world when he’s healthy. And the Leafs survived as well as could be expected when Matthews wasn’t around in November, winning seven of nine. But that was primarily a product of league-best goaltending and A-plus defending that’s been hard to replicate recently amid Anthony Stolarz’s injury, some ill-fitting pieces on defence and the limitations of that centre-ice crew.

This was an issue with Matthews in the lineup.

In the first game without him last week, head coach Craig Berube turned to David Kämpf, who hadn’t scored a goal all season at that point, to play between Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies. Berube promoted Max Domi to the top six in the game after that, a loss to Winnipeg, before pivoting to Holmberg as the 2C.

Holmberg had been a healthy scratch only two games earlier.

This front office would like to have as many as seven forwards capable of playing centre, and technically, they do. The sticking point is that all but Matthews and John Tavares, who deserves a ton of credit for thriving in the middle at age 34, are either bottom-six calibre or centres in case of emergency only: Holmberg, Kämpf, Domi, Connor Dewar and Steven Lorentz.

The Edmonton Oilers are maybe the best example of what strong centre depth looks like. When they briefly lost Connor McDavid to injury earlier this season, they didn’t have to move a fourth-liner up in his absence because they already had Leon Draisaitl (who plays wing and centre), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (who also plays wing and centre) and Adam Henrique down the middle.

Unlike the Leafs, the Oilers were willing to pay a first-round pick for Henrique last spring and were rewarded with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final. They also had the inside track on Henrique in free agency and ultimately brought him back for a modest price (a $3 million cap hit) on a two-year deal.

The biggest challenge for Treliving and his crew now is how to land the centre they know they need and want with what they have.

The Leafs don’t have a first-round pick in the 2025 draft currently. Are they willing to spend their top pick in 2026 instead if it comes to that? Is there a centre out there worth that price or perhaps the price of a top prospect such as Ben Danford or even Fraser Minten?

The fact the Anaheim Ducks nabbed a first for Henrique, a 34-year-old, is a reminder of just how costly it can be to acquire even depth centres in-season. (Whatever price the Leafs do pay, if they do so at all, is penalty for not adding a centre last offseason or giving Nylander an actual chance to figure things out there in the fall.)

Matthews’ absence has only highlighted a roster spot that needs fixing.

Points

1. Ideally, the Leafs would like to acquire a centre who is responsible defensively, can bring some offensive pop and can take some pressure off of Matthews and Tavares by holding his own against other top lines if asked to do so.

That’s a pretty good player, obviously. Adding said player, if possible, would get everyone (Domi, Holmberg, etc.) slotted in their proper place.

2. Matt Murray has one win and one loss in his first two starts back in the NHL. He has an .879 save percentage, surrendering seven goals to about 4.6 expected.

The puck goes past Matt Murray on a shot from Washington’s Andrew Mangiapane. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

3. The Leafs’ team save percentage since Stolarz went out: .869.

4. It didn’t totally work on Saturday, but Berube has unlocked a useful fourth-line combination in Dewar, Kämpf and Lorentz. The Leafs coach has given that trio the quicksand treatment of late, burying them in defensive zone faceoffs (17 percent offensive zone faceoff percentage). And they’ve survived: The Leafs have actually outshot teams 10-5 in their 17 minutes and won almost 70 (!) percent of expected goals.

All three players can skate, play hard and play responsibly.

Deploying the fourth line this way is related to Matthews’ absence: The coaching staff would prefer to have only the Tavares and Kämpf lines starting on defence, and not the Domi and Holmberg-led combos.

It’s an approach they might want to stick with even when Matthews returns. It would remove some strain on him and his linemates moving forward.

5. Related: Will Berube continue sitting Ryan Reaves? He was a healthy scratch for the third straight game on Saturday.

Reaves’ minutes this season haven’t been productive:

Shot attempts: 148-182
Scoring chances: 48-82
Goals: 2-4
Expected goals: 40 percent

6. Bobby McMann picking up where he left off last season has quietly been one of the best stories of the year for the Leafs.

McMann, with 10 goals so far, is on pace for 26 this season at the cost of only $1.35 million on the cap.

At first, I thought the Leafs were too keen when they signed McMann to a two-year extension last spring. He was on a hot streak after a sluggish start to the season. I was wrong. He’s been one of the better values on the team so far, bringing a helpful blend of scoring and physicality on the left side.

Mindboggling in hindsight: McMann was a healthy scratch on opening night.

BOBBO BINGO!! pic.twitter.com/sTTeuAtHH4

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) December 29, 2024

7. Knies before suffering an apparent head injury on Nov. 20: Eight goals on 36 shots in 19 games. Matthew Knies since: Three goals on only 18 shots in 15 games.

In focus: The crease and beyond

Stolarz underwent a procedure to remove a “pebble” in his knee on Dec. 18. He was expected to miss four to six weeks.

He’ll miss his ninth straight game on Tuesday. If he returns after four weeks, the Leafs will have to get by without him for another seven games. If it’s closer to six weeks, it’s more like a dozen or so games, or perhaps more if his recovery takes longer.

Will he return before the 4 Nations Face-Off?

The Leafs are feeling his absence.

Woll has an .885 save percentage in five starts since Stolarz went out. He’s given up 17 goals, about in line with expected (16.4).

This feels partly tied to a burbling issue: The Leafs haven’t been as stingy defensively of late. They rank 27th in expected goal rate defensively over the last eight games. In other words, more quality chances surrendered.

In short, they’re asking more of their goaltenders, not less.

Stock Watch

Stock up: Tavares

He’s totalled six goals and 12 points during a seven-game point streak.

Stock down: The Leafs at home

The Leafs have lost three in a row at Scotiabank Arena after wins in 14 of 18 to start the season.

Things I Think I Think

Winning the conference, not just the division, should be the top priority for the Leafs.

The Atlantic suddenly looks as daunting as ever, with the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning fighting their way up into range of the Leafs and Florida Panthers. (Tampa might be the real team to watch — their goal differential is right near the top of the league and loads better than the Leafs, Bruins or Panthers.)

One of the four teams will likely fill the first wild-card spot, which means winning the Atlantic won’t be enough to avoid a first-round matchup with a recent playoff nemesis. Winning the conference, on the other hand, might just do the trick. (That’s where the loss to the Washington Capitals, the top team in the East by points percentage, was costly.)

It might be the difference between facing one of Ottawa, Pittsburgh, either New York team, Philadelphia, Columbus or Montreal in the first round instead of one of Florida, Boston or Tampa.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey

(Top photo of Pontus Holmberg: Luther Schlaifer / Imagn Images)