EAGAN, Minn. — Crunchtime is upon us. Christmas is in the past, and the final stage of December football is here.
The Minnesota Vikings are one of the NFL’s darlings, but their visions lie well beyond that. The reason for the belief lies in many of the features of this team we’ve discussed the last few weeks: coaching, continuity and camaraderie.
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But there are concerns about this team, too.
With head coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback Sam Darnold rightfully receiving ample credit, it’s worth taking a look at some of the factors that must go in the Vikings’ favor for the team to continue winning down the stretch.
Here are five critical components for Minnesota’s final two regular-season games — and into the playoffs — and why they matter:
Wednesday's #Vikings injury report.
The team held a walkthrough today and the practice report is an estimation. pic.twitter.com/4JrHYKNskz
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 25, 2024
1. Defensive explosive plays
In the fall of 2023, Mike Eayrs, one of the forefathers of NFL analytics, asked me for the two most predictive statistics of wins and losses.
Turnovers were one obvious answer. Teams that win the turnover margin have won 77.5 percent of the time this season, according to TruMedia.
The second, and less obvious, response to Eayrs’ question? Explosive plays. It is incumbent on successful offenses to create them, and it is equally important for dominant defenses to take them away.
The Vikings offense currently ranks sixth in explosive play rate. The defense ranks 21st in explosive play rate allowed, and that’s where things get dicey.
The problem on defense lies in the passing game. Only the Baltimore Ravens have allowed more passes of 16 yards or more this season than the Vikings. Minnesota has made up for this in two areas: turnovers and effectiveness in the red zone.
The Vikings have had trouble when they don’t take the ball away or when the dam breaks close to the end zone. Only time will tell whether this is a sustainable enough way to live, especially against some of the league’s most explosive offenses.
The remaining schedule is full of those, by the way. Below is a table with potential opponents and where they rank from an explosive play standpoint:
Those season-long rankings change depending on the personnel available. When the Los Angeles Rams have quarterback Matthew Stafford, receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams, they climb considerably.
The same applies to the Vikings defense. When Minnesota has linebackers Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. on the field, their explosive play rate allowed (7.7 percent) is the best in the NFL.
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2. Interior of the offensive line
When discussing the Vikings’ future at quarterback with The Athletic’s Mike Sando, one executive described Minnesota’s offensive line as “one of the grittiest.” It’s the perfect illustration of this Vikings front. The fact of the matter is that when it’s without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, this group should not be expected to hold up very well.
NFL teams are paying an average of about $20 million a year for their interior offensive lines, according to Over The Cap. Between left guard Blake Brandel, center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Dalton Risner, the Vikings are paying about $9.5 million. To sum up, Minnesota is paying about half the average cost of an interior offensive line and generating play that is, at the very least, serviceable. So “gritty” feels like an apt descriptor.
Still, there are concerns with this offensive line against the Vikings’ looming opponents. The Green Bay Packers feature interior defenders Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have Vita Vea. Few are more menacing at the moment than the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Carter, and the Los Angeles Rams’ Kobie Turner is nothing to scoff at. If the Vikings somehow find themselves facing off against the Washington Commanders, Daron Payne and potentially Jonathan Allen will be at the ready.
The interior of the Minnesota offensive line has allowed 99 pressures this season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Vikings are averaging only the 17th-most yards before contact when running the football.
One positive does lie in Darnold’s ability when pressured. He ranks sixth in EPA per dropback when pressured, according to Next Gen Stats, and his 94.5 passer rating when pressured is the highest in the NFL, right ahead of Baltimore Ravens quarterback and MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.
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3. Run defense
Let’s start with Pace, who was activated on Tuesday. The second-year linebacker injured his hamstring in Week 11. Here are the Vikings’ metrics versus the run with Pace on and off the field:
Player | On field? | Yards per carry ▲ | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|
No | 3.9 | 57.2% | |
Yes | 3.9 | 71.9% |
The key number there is success rate, which accounts for the effectiveness of the play in each down and distance. When Pace plays, the Vikings rank first against the run by a wide margin. When he doesn’t, Minnesota’s run defense ranks among the worst in the league.
Opponents also factor into these numbers. Two of the Vikings’ recent opponents, Arizona and Atlanta, built their offenses around their rushing attacks. The Cardinals run the ball downhill with the offensive line pulling. Conversely, the Falcons allow running back Bijan Robinson to press the edge and apply his vision to cutbacks.
The Vikings players and staff felt those matchups would help them down the stretch. Presented with similar blocking strategies, defensive tackles Harrison Phillips and Jonathan Bullard now know where to position themselves to get ahead of what teams will try to do.
That’s the hope anyway, and it’s going to have to be because the Eagles, Bucs, Detroit Lions, Commanders, Falcons and Packers all have ground games that rank in the top 10 in efficiency.
4. Offensive turnovers
If we wrote this story after Week 10, turnovers would have topped this list. Only three teams had given the ball away more than the Vikings at that point, and there is a reason the Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans have had such disappointing seasons.
What’s wild is the Vikings have turned the ball over only three times since Week 10. Two were Aaron Jones fumbles and the other an interception Darnold lobbed up on fourth down. Only four teams have fewer turnovers over this span: the Buffalo Bills, Packers, Rams and Kansas City Chiefs — a solid group of which to be a member.
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The difference here is Darnold. He displayed plenty of arm talent in the first 10 games, but he also turned the ball over the way he had in previous seasons. Over the summer, longtime NFL quarterback Rich Gannon suggested that if Darnold could mitigate the turnovers, the Vikings could be on to something big.
Darnold’s on-target percentage (79.8 percent) is the highest of his career, according to Pro Football Reference. His poor throw percentage is down nearly 5 points from his early career stint in New York. Early in the season, his mind seemed to spin when he escaped the pocket. Now, his decision-making feels more concise: Stick to the intent of the play, check it down or throw it away. It’s a multiple-choice test as opposed to a short answer. He is excelling in this format, and it’s a primary reason the Vikings are where they are.
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5. Special teams penalties
There were multiple options for this last category, and maybe Bill Belichick’s media tour this fall seared this into my brain. Belichick speaks relentlessly about hidden yardage, and so much of it exists on special teams.
Considering the Vikings have a rookie kicker in Will Reichard and an unproven punter in Ryan Wright, the unit has held its own. In fact, according to TruMedia, the Vikings rank 14th in EPA amassed on special teams.
Still, penalties have appeared randomly throughout the season, sometimes in pivotal spots. Only seven teams have incurred more special teams flags this year than the Vikings (15). Key contributors Jay Ward, Dallas Turner and Ty Chandler remain relatively inexperienced in this phase, which can make them prone to mistakes.
Keep those from surfacing, and the Vikings will give themselves a better chance at taking this season further than anyone imagined.
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(Photo of Ivan Pace Jr.: Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
