What the Timo Meier trade means for the San Jose Sharks’ rebuild

Mike Grier still doesn’t believe this is a full-on rebuild, but trading Timo Meier is a stark reminder that this is not likely to be a swift and pain-free process moving forward for the San Jose Sharks.

The Sharks sent Meier, who has scored 66 goals since the start of last season, to the New Jersey Devils on Sunday in a large, complex trade that involved nine players and four draft picks.

“We’re trying to flip this thing as quickly as I can, but also get the right people in and make the right moves and not rush it,” Grier said. “You can see what we’ve done with our young players down with the Barracuda. It’s kind of a step-by-step plan. It’s a retool, rebuild … I’ll leave that to (the media) to put whatever word you want on it.”

The three key pieces in the return are Shakir Mukhamadullin, a divisive defense prospect who was selected in the first round in 2020, a first-round pick (likely in 2023) and a second-rounder that can become a first (likely in 2024). Forward Fabian Zetterlund and defenseman Nikita Okhotiuk are young players who could play for San Jose immediately.

Veteran forward Andreas Johnsson will also join the Sharks. He’s in the deal to make the salary cap work for New Jersey. Johnsson was sent to the AHL for much of this season, and is an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Grier hinted at other offers that were more focused on draft picks. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reported the Sharks turned down offers from two other teams. One included a first, a second and a top prospect. The other was a first, a recent first rounder and a mid-tier prospect.

“I think this speeds up the process,” Grier said. “There were some scenarios out there where I could have taken just all picks back. We think the players that we got back are moving far enough along the development path that they’ll be able to help us soon.

“It’s not easy to part with someone like Timo, but the assets we got in this deal really kind of push things forward.”

The immediate reaction to the trade was not particularly positive, whether it was from fans or media members on social media. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman liked San Jose’s return more than the initial consensus.

Yielding one of the best players in the league at his position is never a recipe for “winning” a trade. Mukhamadullin’s development is going to be a huge part of both San Jose’s future and how the feelings about this transaction age.

When the Devils drafted him, there was a lot of debate about how good Mukhamadullin actually is and what his ceiling might be. He was one of the most debated and scrutinized players at the World Junior Championships when he logged heavy minutes for Russia.

“I personally think (Mukhamadullin) is going to be a tremendous NHL player,” Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald said. “But that’s the cost of doing business, giving up a prospect like that. Yes, his name is not (Luke) Hughes or (Simon) Nemec of recent drafts, but he’s still an everyday NHL player that we believe is going to be a top-four (guy).”

He does not carry the name-brand value in February 2023 of players like Dawson Mercer, Alexander Holtz or Simon Nemec with the Devils, Matthew Knies with the Toronto Maple Leafs or Jimmy Snuggerud with the St. Louis Blues — all teams that reportedly had interest in Meier at some point during the process.

“We really like the player,” Grier said. “You don’t find too many 6-4 (defensemen) who are mobile and can defend but also add some offense. … I think there is tons of upside in this kid.”

Zetterlund, 23, has six goals and 20 points in 45 games for the Devils. He is a “competitive prick” who had a productive AHL season a year ago and has become a regular for New Jersey this year. Okhotiuk, 22, is a defense-first defenseman who likes to hit people and could be an NHL regular as a third-pairing guy that plays on the penalty kill.

But this deal, and the direction of the franchise, is going to swing for the Sharks on what happens from here. Grier noted multiple times while meeting with the media after the trade that Meier and Erik Karlsson are having excellent seasons, but the team’s place in the standings was the ultimate indicator of where they are at right now. He said they don’t want to keep “spinning their wheels.”

This is a step back, with a plan to ultimately move forward. Grier has to make more trades like this, where the immediate reaction is likely to be negative.

The Sharks need more dynamic young players to build around. They need more future salary cap flexibility.

Grier said he recognizes that it might be easier to make a trade involving Karlsson in the offseason, but he’d be open to doing one before the March 3 deadline. That is likely the next big domino to fall.

Between Meier and Brent Burns, the Sharks’ first-year general manager has now removed two of the club’s five core players from the past four seasons. San Jose is about to miss the Stanley Cup playoffs for a fourth straight season, the longest stretch in franchise history.

This is uncharted territory for San Jose in more ways than one. The Sharks have never made a trade quite like this. They have never traded a player of this caliber in the prime of his career. Ever.

This franchise has spent three decades looking to add players like Meier, not subtract them. Here is a list of the best players San Jose has traded for, in order, going back to when the Sharks acquired Doug Wilson from the Blackhawks in September 1991:

It’s a long list of famous names. The Sharks also reacquired Evgeni Nabokov late in his career, and even traded for Mark Messier’s rights, although that was just to exercise a loophole in the CBA at the time involving draft pick compensation.

There’s a handful of current and future Hall of Fame members on that list, and a significant percentage of the most impactful players in franchise history. The list of players the Sharks have traded away before Sunday doesn’t come close to matching it.

The best players on it — Igor Larionov, Owen Nolan, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns were all well past their primes. Jonathan Cheechoo was traded for Heatley. Devin Setoguchi was traded for Burns.

Now Burns and Meier are gone, and Karlsson could be between this week and the start of next season as well. Karlsson, Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are all under contract for at least the next three seasons after this one.

More of them will likely need to end up elsewhere before the Sharks are competing for playoff spots and the Stanley Cup again. The organization needs Mukhamadullin, William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau, Filip Bystedt and others to develop into quality NHL players.

They, along with a top-five draft pick in the 2023 class (and maybe 2024 as well, at a minimum) could form the foundation of the next great Sharks team. That could still be several years away.

Grier believes the collection of young players and prospects he received for Meier will help expedite the process, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t more pain and a lot of losses to come.

“I’m excited with what we’ve been able to do as a staff here,” Grier said. “When you subtract players like (Burns and Meier), it is always difficult. I think we’ve done a good job replenishing the prospect pool with last year’s draft and the changes we’ve made.

“I think it’s pushed us in the right direction, got us on the right path a little quick to flip this thing around.”

(Photo: Kavin Mistry / NHLI via Getty Images)