Trump’s ‘mandate’ myths exploded by campaign strategist: Here’s why Dems shouldn’t panic

Matthew Dowd says he has “worked or covered nearly every election year since 1980,” so he knows a little about reading the tarot cards of tabulation, and he’s feeding anxiety medication like M&Ms to Democrats who have been a fetal — and futile — position since election day.

The former GOP campaign strategist, who swore off Twitter/X, returned to the platform this week to give Democrats and anti-Trumpers a pep talk and steer them from bad political takes by pundits who have no clue what they’re talking about — while exploding some Donald-Trump-has a-mandate myths.

Here’s his analysis:

Kamala Harris actually overperformed.

The biggest predictor of the election results nationally and by state and demographic group was President Joe Biden’s job approval rating, Dowd wrote on Medium and posted on Twitter/X. With Biden at 40%, that’s what Vice President Kamala Harris should have polled. By getting more than 48%, she beat political gravity — by a lot.

“Barack Obama and George W. Bush each had 51% approval on election day, and that is the percentage of the vote they received,” Dowd wrote. “It is true of all Presidents in the last 50 years, as well as incumbent vice presidents running for President. In 1988, Reagan had a 55% job approval, and Bush received 53% of the vote in the general election.”

And that leads to another conclusion:

By underperforming, Trump has no mandate.

“No matter what Republicans (and media commentators) are saying, Trump has no real mandate in this election and won despite himself not because of himself. It looks as if Trump will win the popular vote by less than 1.5%: which in a historical perspective is one of the smallest margins of victory of any President elected,” Dowd wrote.

GOP candidates will emulate Trump — and get whipped.

“Republicans after election day will make a big mistake in thinking copying Trump in either style, tone or substance is a path to victory,” Dowd wrote. “On election day, a majority of voters agreed with Harris on most policy, and a majority disliked, distrusted and thought Trump was too extreme.

“In 2022, many Republicans copied Trump and were soundly beaten in swing states. Trump won because Biden’s job approval was at a dismal low,” not because Trump’s policies are popular, Dowd said.

Democrats don’t need major corrections.

With Harris overperforming despite “the anchor of Biden dragging her along the way,” Democrats won a number of key races, statewide or legislative, in key states like North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. They also passed abortion rights and increased minimum wage referenda in a number of places, including red states, Dowd pointed out.

He added that “Democrats should reassess and learn from this election and make adjustments especially in how they communicate with non-college voters, but they are not far off target of where they need to be in order to win at the state and national level.”

Woke ain’t broke.

How many times have you heard that the woke movement, or progressivism, is doing serious damage to the Democrats? “This just isn’t born out by election results or polls,” Dowd insists.

Progressive candidates won Senate races in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada — adding to many victories in 2022.

Anti-transgender ads didn’t move the needle.

Dowd points to a poll compiled immediately after election day that tested the effects of the campaign against the transgender population and attempts to hurt Democrats by association.

According to a large poll in swing states by Change Research, “when comparing voters who saw anti-transgender ads ... there was no discernible persuasion or motivation effects,” Dowd reported.

In the end, Trump’s win is not about Harris’ missed Joe Rogan interview or an impending collapse of the Democratic party that will lead to a blood-red electoral map impossible to navigate.

“Both Republicans and Democrats are both taking away the wrong lessons,” Dowd wrote. “And if you want to win going forward, it is best to understand exactly what happened, not some mythic take pushed by too many.”

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