Why today is the perfect time for Nick Sorensen to be more aggressive than he has all season

The San Francisco 49ers enter their Week 12 matchup against the Green Bay Packers without their starting quarterback. That’s the most valuable position in sports. A premium pass rusher is arguably second. The Niners will also be without one of those on Sunday.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted out a graphic of the 2023 Divisional Playoff defensive line the 49ers trotted out on the field compared to what they would today:

Collins has been consistent for the 49ers this season as a pass rusher. He’s played 71 percent of the defensive snaps, which is a career-high for Collins. His 28 quarterback pressures are third on the team.

Collins and Leonard Floyd have been better against the pass than the run. Deommodore Lenoir has more run stops than both defensive linemen.

Floyd is second on the team in pressures with 35, behind Bosa’s 49. His pressure rate is 1.8 percent lower than Bosa’s. The difference is that Floyd has played 63 percent of the snaps compared to 81 percent for Bosa.

The spot opposite of Bosa is the wild card one against the Packers. Yetur Gross-Matos played 37 snaps last week against the Seattle Seahawks, while Sam Okuayinonu was on the field for 34 snaps. Those two figure to do the heavy-lifting in Bosa’s absence. They combined for five pressures and a sack but also three missed tackles.

On the season, Okuayinonu has been a pleasant surprise. Despite playing 200 fewer snaps than Collins, Sam O only has two fewer run stops. His pressure rate is 13 percent, which is good for third on the roster.

Gross-Matos has only played 116 snaps for the Niners this season. The defense will ask for more from YGM as long as Bosa remains out. Gross-Matos and Sam O’s best position seems to be rushing the passer from inside on obvious passing downs. They’ll be on the field together on third downs with Floyd and Collins.

The Packers haven’t had much turnover along the offensive line. Four of their starters have played 100 percent of the snaps this season. They’re all excellent pass blockers. Green Bay has allowed the third-fewest pressures in the NFL. Some of that can be credited to the scheme, as Jordan Love gets the ball out of his hands quickly.

Send it, Sorensen

But when you get pressure, Love has crumbled. Nick Sorensen has every excuse to be aggressive against the Packers. Love leads the league in yards per attempt when facing four or fewer pass rushers at 9.5 — a yard higher than Jared Goff, who is second.

Love is completing only 43.8 percent of his passes with a -8.4 percent completion percentage over expected on passes under pressure this season. Gardner Minshew is the only quarterback worse than him in that category this year.

Love hunts the big play, for better or worse, when pressured. He does a great job of avoiding sacks, with the second lowest sack rate when pressured, and will push the ball down the field more than the average quarterback. He’s averaging 11.9 air yards per attempt under pressure, which is good for sixth in the NFL. So the 49ers safeties must be aware of who they’re going against this week, and how aggressive Love is.

It’s a great matchup for the 49ers stylistically in the secondary, as the Packers love throwing outside the numbers. That’s an area where the 49ers have feasted, allowing the second-lowest completion percentage on out-breaking routes this year.

Renardo Green, Isaac Yiadom, and Lenoir will be tested early and often, especially if the Packers are struggling to run the ball. But I like that trio to keep Christian Watson under control a week after he had 150 yards receiving. Jayden Reed is Green Bay’s version of Deebo Samuel. That’s who you want Lenoir defending, while Yiadom and Green contain Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs.

If the 49ers are going to win today, it’ll be due to their secondary winning the 1-on-1 matchups down the field and outside the numbers. They didn’t do that in Week 11. They’ll have to in Week 12.