The 49ers and Packers seasons have been eerily similar except for the one stat that matters the most

The result of Sunday’s NFC clash at Lambeau Field between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers will carry significant playoff ramifications for both sides. Let’s take a look at the playoff implications for the outcomes.

Where are the Packers in the NFL Playoff Picture?

The 7-3 Packers currently hold the No. 6 seed in the NFC but are still in play for the NFC North crown, just two games behind the 9-1 Detroit Lions and a game behind the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings. A loss wouldn’t remove the Packers from the playoff field but would hamper any hopes of a division crown.

What is the San Francisco 49ers’ place in the NFC standings?

On the other hand, the 5-5 49ers are playing for their playoff lives. Currently sitting as the No. 10 seed, San Francisco has the same record as the Rams and Seahawks but is behind in seeding due to tie-breakers. Despite being behind both Seattle and Los Angeles, the NFL.com playoff picture gives the 49ers a better chance to make the postseason than its division rivals at 31 percent (Seattle is 23 percent and the Rams at 14).

If San Francisco loses on Sunday in Green Bay, its playoff probability drops to 16 percent.

But before the two NFC rivals meet on Sunday, let’s look at the last five games for the 49ers and Packers to see how we got to this point:

49ers’ last five games

• Week 6: at Seattle, W 36-24
• Week 7: versus Kansas City, L 28-18
• Week 8: versus Dallas, W 30-24
• Week 9: bye
• Week 10: at Tampa Bay, W 23-20
• Week 11: versus Seattle, L 20-17

Packers’ last five games

• Week 6: versus Arizona, W 34-13
• Week 7: versus Houston, W 24-22
• Week 8: at Jacksonville, W 30-27
• Week 9: versus Detroit, L 24-14
• Week 10: bye
• Week 11: at Chicago, W 20-19

There are some differences – win/loss the record is the biggest, with Green Bay at 4-1 and San Francisco at 3-2—but also plenty of similarities. Both teams lost to the best team over the five-game stretch by precisely 10 points; both won and lost games against a divisional opponent, and both played in three one-possession games, with the Packers 3-0 in those games and the 49ers at 2-1.

How do the 49ers and Packers perform in one-score games?

If we zoom out from the five-game sample size and look at both teams’ entire seasons, the one-possession game is where the 49ers and Packers differentiate. Green Bay’s Week 11 win against the Bears was the Packers’ seventh one-possession game this season, going 5-2. San Francisco’s Week 11 loss to Seattle was San Francisco’s sixth one-possession game of the season, dropping the 49ers to 2-4 in such games.

A slight consolation, but the 49ers were 0-3 in one-possession games before the above five-game stretch, before beating Dallas and Tampa Bay in consecutive one-score games. On the other hand, the 49ers had leads of 17 and 10 points in each respective game before holding on to the tight wins.

Green Bay’s ability to win close games is why they are in the thick of the playoff race, while the 49ers’ inability to come out with a win in tight games is why they are outside the bubble. One thing is sure: both teams have played plenty of close games, so we can expect a tight one on Sunday at Lambeau.