By Jim Naveau
Even before the season began the expectations were that Ohio State would beat Michigan, get a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game and, regardless of the outcome of that game, maybe still be one of the top four seeds in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
So, how did that work out? Don’t ask.
The question now, as OSU (10-2) goes into Saturday night’s College Football Playoff first-round game against Tennessee (10-2) in the first December game in the history of Ohio Stadium, is if the Buckeyes are set up for revenge or set up for more disappointment.
Maybe revenge isn’t quite the right word. Restoration might fit their situation better.
A win over the Vols could restore a little of the optimism that prevailed through the first 11 games of the season, even after a one-point loss at Oregon in mid-October.
Similarly, disappointment might not be a strong enough word for what the mood would be if a team with a proclaimed goal of “Natty or bust,” which was called the most talented team in the country much of the season, lost its first playoff game.
Winning that “natty” would require four wins by the Buckeyes, starting with a Tennessee team whose biggest win was over Alabama and whose two losses were to Georgia and to Arkansas, a 6-6 team headed to the Liberty Bowl.
Offensively, Tennessee’s leaders are running back Dylan Sampson (1,485 yards rushing, 22 touchdowns) and quarterback Nico Iamaleava (2,512 yards passing, 19 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). Iamaleava was ranked by some analysts as the No. 2 quarterback recruit behind Arch Manning two years ago.
Defensively, the Vols’ standouts are edge rusher James Pearce (7.5 sacks), former preferred walk-on safety Will Brooks (3 interceptions) and linebacker Arion Carter, the team leader in tackles.
Maybe the most uniquely talented player on Tennessee’s roster is punter Ross Jackson, who can kick equally well with either foot.
Jackson (44.4 yards per punt) is a rugby-style kicker who kicks with his right foot if moving to his right and with his left foot when he is rolling to the left.
Five things to watch which could play a big role in the game:
• How well Ohio State’s offensive line plays. The offensive line did not have a good day in a 13-10 loss to Michigan and to a lesser extent in a 38-15 win over Indiana a week before that.
The loss of center Seth McLaughlin, a first-team All-American, to a torn Achilles tendon added to the season-ending knee injury suffered by left tackle Josh Simmons in the Oregon game was a huge blow to OSU’s offense.
The Buckeyes’ offense has not been the same without McLaughlin and Simmons on the field. Ryan Day hinted at more playing time for Luke Montgomery and a rotation of Austin Siereveld, Tegra Tshabola and Montgomery at the guard positions against Tennessee.
• Can Will Howard bounce back? Howard threw two interceptions and had a season-low 175 yards passing against Michigan. The Wolverines’ pass rush pressured him effectively and his receivers were usually covered well.
Howard took a big hit while trying to run for a first down in the second quarter against Michigan, which might have affected his play.
• Turnovers. Tennessee standout Sampson’s productivity is impressive but his ability to hang on to the ball hasn’t been. He has lost four fumbles this season, including having one in three consecutive games. Cold hands plus that tendency could be a problem for Tennessee’s ground game.
• Ohio State’s pass rush. OSU, which has 35 sacks this season, did not have one in either of its losses against Michigan and at Oregon.
• The kickers. Everything seems to point to a low-scoring defensive game which could multiply the importance of having a kicker who can make a field goal in a pressure situation. Ohio State’s Jayden Fielding and Tennessee’s Max Gilbert both have been good most games but had times when they’ve gone off the rails.
Gilbert is 19 of 25 on field goals but was a combined 1 of 6 in back-to-back games against Alabama and Kentucky. Fielding is 9 of 12 but missed twice against Michigan and earlier this season kicked three consecutive kickoffs out of bounds.
The prediction: Ohio State 21, Tennessee 17.
