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Overconfidence

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2Vladimir_Nesov

Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.

Blog posts

Moral Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
When Error is High, Simplify by Robin Hanson
Academic Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers by Robin Hanson
Convenient Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
Overconfidence Explained by Robin Hanson
On Overconfidence by Scott Alexander

See also

Overconfidence<\/strong> is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors<\/a> and the evidence<\/a> available.<\/p>

Blog posts<\/h2>
Moral Overconfidence<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/a><\/li>
When Error is High, Simplify<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Academic Overconfidence<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Convenient Overconfidence<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Overconfidence Explained<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
On Overconfidence<\/a> by Scott Alexander<\/a><\/li><\/ul>
See also<\/h2>
Underconfidence<\/a><\/li>
Status<\/a>, Modesty<\/a><\/li>
Dangerous knowledge<\/a><\/li><\/ul>","htmlHighlight":"
Overconfidence<\/strong> is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors<\/a> and the evidence<\/a> available.<\/p>
Blog posts<\/h2>
Moral Overconfidence<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/a><\/li>
When Error is High, Simplify<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Academic Overconfidence<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Convenient Overconfidence<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
Overconfidence Explained<\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/li>
On Overconfidence<\/a> by Scott Alexander<\/a><\/li><\/ul>
See also<\/h2>
Underconfidence<\/a><\/li>
Status<\/a>, Modesty<\/a><\/li>
Dangerous knowledge<\/a><\/li><\/ul>","plaintextDescription":"Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.\n\n\nBlog posts\n * Moral Overconfidence by Robin Hanson\n * When Error is High, Simplify by Robin Hanson\n * Academic Overconfidence by Robin Hanson\n * Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers by Robin Hanson\n * Convenient Overconfidence by Robin Hanson\n * Overconfidence Explained by Robin Hanson\n * On Overconfidence by Scott Alexander\n\n\nSee also\n * Underconfidence\n * Status, Modesty\n * Dangerous knowledge","version":"1.15.0"},"Tag:5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb101":{"_id":"5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb101","typename":"Tag","parentTag":null,"subTags":[],"description":{"ref":"Revision:5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb101_description"},"canVoteOnRels":null,"subtitle":null,"oldSlugs":null,"isRead":false,"defaultOrder":0,"reviewedByUserId":"qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84","wikiGrade":0,"subforumModeratorIds":[],"subforumModerators":[],"moderationGuidelines":null,"bannerImageId":null,"squareImageId":null,"lesswrongWikiImportSlug":"Overconfidence","lesswrongWikiImportRevision":"1.12.0","sequence":null,"userId":"9c2mQkLQq6gQSksMs","name":"Overconfidence","shortName":null,"slug":"overconfidence","core":false,"postCount":0,"adminOnly":false,"canEditUserIds":null,"suggestedAsFilter":false,"needsReview":false,"descriptionTruncationCount":null,"createdAt":"2020-09-11T19:58:51.854Z","wikiOnly":true,"deleted":false,"isSubforum":false,"noindex":false,"tableOfContents":{"html":"
Overconfidence<\/span><\/strong> is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your <\/span>priors<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>evidence<\/span><\/a> available.<\/span><\/p>
Blog posts<\/span><\/h2>
Moral Overconfidence<\/span><\/a> by <\/span>Robin Hanson<\/span><\/a><\/li>
When Error is High, Simplify<\/span><\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/span><\/li>
Academic Overconfidence<\/span><\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/span><\/li>
Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers<\/span><\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/span><\/li>
Convenient Overconfidence<\/span><\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/span><\/li>
Overconfidence Explained<\/span><\/a> by Robin Hanson<\/span><\/li>
On Overconfidence<\/span><\/a> by <\/span>Scott Alexander<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul>
See also<\/span><\/h2>
Underconfidence<\/span><\/a><\/li>
Status<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Modesty<\/span><\/a><\/li>
Dangerous knowledge<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul>","sections":[{"title":"Blog posts","anchor":"Blog_posts","level":1},{"title":"See also","anchor":"See_also","level":1},{"divider":true,"level":0,"anchor":"postHeadingsDivider"}]},"postsDefaultSortOrder":null,"subforumIntroPost":null,"subforumWelcomeText":null,"contributors({\"limit\":7})":{"typename":"TagContributorsList","totalCount":7,"contributors":[{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:LoykQRMTxJFxwwdPy"},"contributionScore":2,"numCommits":1,"voteCount":1},{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:qf77EiaoMw7tH3GSr"},"contributionScore":2,"numCommits":2,"voteCount":1},{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:2PfQYPeL9NGj83sv6"},"contributionScore":1,"numCommits":1,"voteCount":1},{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:9c2mQkLQq6gQSksMs"},"contributionScore":1,"numCommits":2,"voteCount":1},{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:RyiDJDCG6R7xyAXzp"},"contributionScore":1,"numCommits":3,"voteCount":1},{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:qaHjMwtHQhGs9HXtt"},"contributionScore":1,"numCommits":1,"voteCount":1},{"typename":"TagContributor","user":{"ref":"User:qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84"},"contributionScore":0,"numCommits":1,"voteCount":0}]},"tagFlagsIds":["zrQ2xf2ezbbt4n93X","r2zPtnhkLivn8SsNf","6mqn2HXRkikt2PSyH"],"tagFlags":[{"ref":"TagFlag:zrQ2xf2ezbbt4n93X"},{"ref":"TagFlag:r2zPtnhkLivn8SsNf"},{"ref":"TagFlag:6mqn2HXRkikt2PSyH"}]},"User:LoykQRMTxJFxwwdPy":{"_id":"LoykQRMTxJFxwwdPy","__typename":"User","slug":"grognor","createdAt":"2011-01-31T02:54:34.463Z","username":"Grognor","displayName":"Grognor","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":null,"karma":3448,"afKarma":0,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":false,"htmlBio":"","jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":12,"commentCount":504,"sequenceCount":0,"afPostCount":0,"afCommentCount":0,"spamRiskScore":1,"tagRevisionCount":272,"reviewedByUserId":"r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ"},"User:qf77EiaoMw7tH3GSr":{"_id":"qf77EiaoMw7tH3GSr","__typename":"User","slug":"vladimir_nesov","createdAt":"2009-02-27T09:55:13.458Z","username":"Vladimir_Nesov","displayName":"Vladimir_Nesov","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":"Vladimir Nesov","karma":31039,"afKarma":366,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":false,"htmlBio":"","jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":39,"commentCount":9268,"sequenceCount":0,"afPostCount":1,"afCommentCount":187,"spamRiskScore":1,"tagRevisionCount":1506,"reviewedByUserId":"grecHJcgkb3KW5wnM"},"User:2PfQYPeL9NGj83sv6":{"_id":"2PfQYPeL9NGj83sv6","__typename":"User","slug":"qvalq","createdAt":"2022-09-06T14:28:44.189Z","username":"qv^!q","displayName":"qvalq","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":"David Joshua Sartor","karma":93,"afKarma":0,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":false,"htmlBio":"","jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":0,"commentCount":81,"sequenceCount":0,"afPostCount":0,"afCommentCount":0,"spamRiskScore":1,"tagRevisionCount":6,"reviewedByUserId":"r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ"},"User:9c2mQkLQq6gQSksMs":{"_id":"9c2mQkLQq6gQSksMs","__typename":"User","slug":"peerinfinity","createdAt":"2009-04-28T23:38:10.818Z","username":"PeerInfinity","displayName":"PeerInfinity","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":null,"karma":724,"afKarma":0,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":false,"htmlBio":"","jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":2,"commentCount":211,"sequenceCount":0,"afPostCount":0,"afCommentCount":0,"spamRiskScore":1,"tagRevisionCount":751,"reviewedByUserId":"r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ"},"User:RyiDJDCG6R7xyAXzp":{"_id":"RyiDJDCG6R7xyAXzp","__typename":"User","slug":"bjr","createdAt":"2009-02-27T07:33:52.497Z","username":"bjr","displayName":"bjr","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":null,"karma":0,"afKarma":0,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":false,"htmlBio":"","jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":0,"commentCount":0,"sequenceCount":0,"afPostCount":0,"afCommentCount":0,"spamRiskScore":0.9,"tagRevisionCount":160,"reviewedByUserId":"r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ"},"User:qaHjMwtHQhGs9HXtt":{"_id":"qaHjMwtHQhGs9HXtt","__typename":"User","slug":"mdt-1","createdAt":"2022-02-18T03:09:30.235Z","username":"mdt","displayName":"mdt","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":null,"karma":24,"afKarma":0,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":false,"htmlBio":"","jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":0,"commentCount":2,"sequenceCount":0,"afPostCount":0,"afCommentCount":0,"spamRiskScore":1,"tagRevisionCount":1,"reviewedByUserId":"r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ"},"User:qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84":{"_id":"qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84","__typename":"User","slug":"ruby","createdAt":"2014-04-03T03:38:23.914Z","username":"Ruby","displayName":"Ruby","profileImageId":null,"previousDisplayName":null,"fullName":"Ruben Bloom","karma":13361,"afKarma":137,"deleted":false,"isAdmin":true,"htmlBio":"
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This page has a basic description but it could be fleshed out to include more discussion and guidance on the topic.<\/p>
Great wiki/tag pages are excellent guides to the topic they cover: they explain the core idea and any major subtopics, they identify the most significant resources for learning more about the topic (both on LessWrong elsewhere), and link to neighboring wiki-tag pages about topics that are also likely to be of interest.<\/p>
See the Tagging FAQ<\/a> for more direction about good tag descriptions.<\/p>","htmlHighlight":"
This page has a basic description but it could be fleshed out to include more discussion and guidance on the topic.<\/p>
Great wiki/tag pages are excellent guides to the topic they cover: they explain the core idea and any major subtopics, they identify the most significant resources for learning more about the topic (both on LessWrong elsewhere), and link to neighboring wiki-tag pages about topics that are also likely to be of interest.<\/p>
See the Tagging FAQ<\/a> for more direction about good tag descriptions.<\/p>","plaintextDescription":"This page has a basic description but it could be fleshed out to include more discussion and guidance on the topic.\n\nGreat wiki/tag pages are excellent guides to the topic they cover: they explain the core idea and any major subtopics, they identify the most significant resources for learning more about the topic (both on LessWrong elsewhere), and link to neighboring wiki-tag pages about topics that are also likely to be of interest.\n\nSee the Tagging FAQ for more direction about good tag descriptions."}},"TagFlag:r2zPtnhkLivn8SsNf":{"_id":"r2zPtnhkLivn8SsNf","typename":"TagFlag","createdAt":"2020-11-20T06:08:45.632Z","name":"Needs Related Pages","slug":"needs-related-pages","order":7,"deleted":false,"contents":{"typename":"Revision","html":"
All wiki-tag pages should link to related pages, e.g. a tag for Functional Decision Theory should link to the overall Decision Theory tag and vice versa. <\/p>
Keeping the graph of wiki-tags explicitly connected is one of the best ways to help people find unknown unknowns – information they want but don't know exists.<\/p>
View some wiki-tags to see what these sections look like, they usually have the section header see also <\/i>or related.<\/i><\/p>","htmlHighlight":"
All wiki-tag pages should link to related pages, e.g. a tag for Functional Decision Theory should link to the overall Decision Theory tag and vice versa. <\/p>
Keeping the graph of wiki-tags explicitly connected is one of the best ways to help people find unknown unknowns – information they want but don't know exists.<\/p>
View some wiki-tags to see what these sections look like, they usually have the section header see also <\/i>or related.<\/i><\/p>","plaintextDescription":"All wiki-tag pages should link to related pages, e.g. a tag for Functional Decision Theory should link to the overall Decision Theory tag and vice versa. \n\nKeeping the graph of wiki-tags explicitly connected is one of the best ways to help people find unknown unknowns – information they want but don't know exists.\n\nView some wiki-tags to see what these sections look like, they usually have the section header see also or related."}},"TagFlag:6mqn2HXRkikt2PSyH":{"_id":"6mqn2HXRkikt2PSyH","typename":"TagFlag","createdAt":"2020-11-21T01:01:01.900Z","name":"Very Few Posts","slug":"very-few-posts","order":11,"deleted":false,"contents":{"typename":"Revision","html":"
This tag has very few posts tagged, one of the following should happen:<\/p>
More suitable posts get this tag.<\/li>
The wiki-tag is converted to wiki-only.<\/i><\/li>
It is merged into another tag.<\/li><\/ul>
Failing those, it should be deleted to prevent clutter.<\/p>","htmlHighlight":"
This tag has very few posts tagged, one of the following should happen:<\/p>
More suitable posts get this tag.<\/li>
The wiki-tag is converted to wiki-only.<\/i><\/li>
It is merged into another tag.<\/li><\/ul>
Failing those, it should be deleted to prevent clutter.<\/p>","plaintextDescription":"This tag has very few posts tagged, one of the following should happen:\n\n * More suitable posts get this tag.\n * The wiki-tag is converted to wiki-only.\n * It is merged into another tag.\n\nFailing those, it should be deleted to prevent clutter."}},"Revision:bkKJhhhBbnCigzjrY_description":{"_id":"bkKJhhhBbnCigzjrY_description","__typename":"Revision","html":"
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Click to edit this page. Every contribution helps!<\/p>
Don't worry about making bad edits, others will review changes and fix up anything untoward.<\/p>
Feel free to post in the latest Open Thread or ping the LW team directly via Intercom if you have questions.<\/p>","plaintextDescription":"Click to edit this page. Every contribution helps!\n\nDon't worry about making bad edits, others will review changes and fix up anything untoward.\n\nFeel free to post in the latest Open Thread or ping the LW team directly via Intercom if you have questions.","version":"1.3.0"},"Tag:bkKJhhhBbnCigzjrY":{"_id":"bkKJhhhBbnCigzjrY","typename":"Tag","parentTag":null,"subTags":[],"description":{"ref":"Revision:bkKJhhhBbnCigzjrY_description"},"canVoteOnRels":null,"subtitle":null,"oldSlugs":null,"isRead":false,"defaultOrder":0,"reviewedByUserId":null,"wikiGrade":2,"subforumModeratorIds":[],"subforumModerators":[],"moderationGuidelines":null,"bannerImageId":null,"squareImageId":null,"lesswrongWikiImportSlug":null,"lesswrongWikiImportRevision":null,"sequence":null,"userId":"qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84","name":"Tag CTA Popup","shortName":null,"slug":"tag-cta-popup","core":false,"postCount":0,"adminOnly":false,"canEditUserIds":null,"suggestedAsFilter":false,"needsReview":false,"descriptionTruncationCount":0,"createdAt":"2021-04-03T05:09:30.426Z","wikiOnly":true,"deleted":false,"isSubforum":false,"noindex":false}}