Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision

President Trump is pressuring Ukraine to sign his 28-point “peace agreement,” amid criticism that the plan is pro-Russian and too vague to implement. This is not an agreement but may be a starting point. Indeed, the Europeans have put forth their own, more balanced version.

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Maria Snegovaya — November 24, 2025

USS Ford arrives in the Caribbean: Will It Strike or Stand Down?

With the redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean reaches a level unseen since the Cold War. The aircraft carrier’s arrival suggests a shift from a campaign against drug smugglers to one that includes undermining the Maduro regime. 

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — November 13, 2025

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Trump’s Caribbean Campaign: The Data Behind the Developing Conflict

An audio version of “⁠Trump’s Caribbean Campaign: The Data Behind the Developing Conflict⁠,” a new Commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — November 10, 2025

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U.S. Carrier to the Caribbean: A Step Closer to War

An audio version of “⁠U.S. Carrier to the Caribbean: A Step Closer to War,⁠” a new Commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — October 24, 2025

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U.S. Carrier to the Caribbean: A Step Closer to War

Moving a carrier strike group is highly significant. U.S. forces are increasingly well positioned to conduct an air campaign against either the cartels or Venezuela—but don't yet have the combat power for a ground invasion.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — October 24, 2025

Will the Tomahawks Save Ukraine?

About a thousand Tomahawk missiles in the U.S. stockpile today are available for transfer to Ukraine. They could have a major impact on the war, but the Pacific theater needs and Russian opposition could disrupt any deal.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — October 17, 2025

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Will the Tomahawks Save Ukraine?

An audio version of "⁠Will the Tomahawks Save Ukraine?⁠," a new Critical Questions by CSIS's Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — October 17, 2025

Audio Briefs