2024 payroll: $109M (#22 in MLB)

Key free agents: Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, James McCann, John Means

Arbitration players in 2025:

3rd year: Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Gregory Soto

2nd year: Cionel Perez, Ryan Mountcastle, Trevor Rogers, Ramon Urias, Keegan Akin, Jacob Webb, Matt Bowman, Tyler Wells

1st year: Adley Rutschman, Dean Kremer, Emmanuel Rivera, Kyle Bradish

First order(s) of business: Tender all arbitration eligible players. Extend QO to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander.

Sign SS Gunnar Henderson to a 12-year/$325M contract, with opt out after year seven (after 2031 season when Gunnar is 30 years old).

Sign INF Jordan Westburg to an 8-year/$75M contract with two option years that could push the total value to $125M.

Sign OF Teoscar Hernandez to 3-year/$85M contract.

Sign C Danny Jansen to a 1-year/$5M contract.

Sign RHP Jake Odorizzi to a minor league contract.

Trade OF Dylan Beavers/LHP Chayce McDermott to Cardinals for RHP Sonny Gray.

Trade C Ethan Anderson (MLB Pipeline #13 Orioles prospect)/OF Austin Overn (MLB Pipeline #17 prospect) to Reds for RHP Fernando Cruz.

Trade LHP Gregory Soto/RHP Yennier Cano to Braves for LHP Dylan Lee.

Decline option on Eloy Jimenez. Exercise options on Ryan O’Hearn and Seranthony Dominguez.

I’m assuming that the Orioles make long term offers to Burnes and Santander, both of whom ultimately sign elsewhere in free agency. Signing Hernandez is a pivot move once Santander finds a new team.

First and foremost, it’s time to lock Gunnar up for the long haul. Bobby Witt’s deal is the starting point, which the Orioles would obviously have to beat. Gunnar gets an opt out after the 2031 season, similar to Witt’s player option.

Orioles also jump on signing Jordan Westburg to a deal that falls in line with what the Brewers gave Jackson Chourio. Signing Gunnar and Westburg anchors the infield for most of the next decade.

I thought about signing Adley to a contract as well, but he’s coming off an atrocious second half to the 2024 season. He needs to have a huge bounce back in 2025 to justify committing financially to him. And I’m sure if the Orioles approached him this winter, his agent would advise him not to sign any extension since he’d be leaving a ton of money on the table.

Similar fashion for Grayson Rodriguez. I would love to sign him to a deal in line with what Hunter Greene got, but he needs a full (and injury-free) season in the bigs before it makes sense to sign him.

The Orioles bullpen ranked #22 in MLB in striking out hitters, so they desperately need guys who strike more hitters out. Thus, I’m trading for Fernando Cruz and Dylan Lee. Cruz’s K/9 in 2024 was 3rd among all relievers in baseball (14.09), so he will be a huge boost as the new 8th inning guy to set up for Felix Bautista.

Dylan Lee was equally effective in striking out opposing hitters (7th in K/9 among LHP in 2024). Trading away Cano absolutely hurts - I’ll miss his 80-grade pose after his pitches – but he still carries some trade value. Braves also need bullpen help, so they get both a lefty and a righty coming back in the deal.

Also explored the idea of trading Mountcastle to Seattle for starting pitching, but ultimately decided the fit was not there. Pivoted to trading for Sonny Gray instead.

I thought long and hard about signing Luis Severino to a 4 year/$60M deal. However, I suspect Elias will make one major addition to the rotation and give Trevor Rogers another shot with a full offseason program. Here’s hoping Rogers looks a whole lot better in 2025 than he did in his few starts in 2024 once the Orioles got him.

Orioles also need a new backup catcher for Adley, so they sign Danny Jansen.

Projected 2025 Opening Day 26-man roster:

Rotation: Sonny Gray, Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer

Bullpen: LHP Keegan Akin, RHP Felix Bautista, RHP Fernando Cruz, LHP Danny Coulombe, RHP Seranthony Dominguez, LHP Dylan Lee, LHP Cionel Perez, RHP Jacob Webb

Position players: Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Teoscar Hernandez, Heston Kjerstad, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg

Bench: Danny Jansen, Jorge Mateo, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Urias

Approximate total projected payroll (including MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration estimates for eligible players): $148.9M

Payroll ultimately jumps by just over 45% from 2024, which puts the Orioles around #18 in the league (based on 2024 team payrolls). Still leaves flexibility for future extensions on current players, e.g. Adley, Grayson, Holliday, etc.

See you on Pratt Street in early November 2025 for the parade.