Jaguars, Vikings re-watch takeaways from Week 10

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive units started off strong, with a 70-yard first quarter touchdown drive. However, even while being gifted three turnovers by the Jacksonville defense, Doug Pederson’s offensive unit would be unable to score a single point off of turnovers. With the Jacksonville Fair in town, it was appropriately a turnoverpalooza at a misty EverBank Stadium. Let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 12-7 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings.

After initially providing the live takeaways from the game, we take a closer review of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay. As a note, this review is based on the non-all-22 film, while published before the PFF grades are released in an effort to remain truly uninfluenced or unbiased on what we see. Additionally, this knowingly places some limitations on evaluating secondary play without confirming the full coverage looks. With that said, let’s get into it.

*Any opinions are his own and not of the entire BCC staff or leadership. Of course, anyone can disagree when evaluating film. Any EPA data retrieved from rbsdm.com.*

Defense:

1) Jaguars secondary snap counts

• CB Tyson Campbell played 79 defensive snaps (94%)
• CB Montaric Brown played 48 defensive snaps (57%)
• CB Jarrian Jones played 42 defensive snaps (50%)
• CB Ronald Darby played 41 defensive snaps (49%)
• SS Darnell Savage played all 84 defensive snaps (100%)
• FS Andre Cisco played 56 defensive snaps (67%)
• FS Antonio Johnson played 38 defensive snaps (45%)
• FS Andrew ‘Dewey’ Wingard did not play a defensive snap (12 special teams snaps only)

This week’s personnel usage at safety, when paired with Jacksonville’s success at limiting explosive plays was an unexpected takeaway for this week. Jacksonville came away with three interceptions on the day, while limiting Justin Jefferson to 48-yards receiving. Does the success have to do the fact that week 10 was also lowest number of snaps for Andre Cisco on the season? Before the Vikings matchup, Cisco had never played less than 90% of snaps on the season. However, this week, Darnell Savage played the role of FS with Cisco seemingly rotating with Antonio Johnson in packages. Without seeing the all-22, I’m truly unsure what to make of the CB rotation this week. Whatever the plan was on the backend, it seemed to work when it mattered most.

2) Jaguars LB Snap Counts

• LB Foye Oluokun played all 84 defensive snaps (100%)
• LB Devin Lloyd played 65 defensive snaps (77%)
• LB Ventrell Miller played 50 defensive snaps (60%)
• Yasir Abdullah played 22 defensive snaps (26%)
• LB Chad Muma played 1 defensive snap (1%)

This week’s matchup heavily supported what we all have known since Foye’s return from injury; the combination of Foye Oluokun, Devin Lloyd, and Ventrell Miller is a really, really good linebacker core when the defensive front can keep them clean. Oluokun was a man on a mission in this one, racking up tackles like the all-pro caliber backer we’ve come to love. He ended the day with 11 tackles, 6 solo, 1 pass defensed, and an interception. However, LB Devin Lloyd had an even busier day collecting 16 tackles in this one.

3) Jaguars DT/DE Snap Counts

• DE Travon Walker played 65 defensive snaps (77%)
• DE Josh Hines-Allen played 62 defensive snaps (74%)
• DE Arik Armstead played 38 defensive snaps (45%)
• DT DaVon Hamilton played 54 defensive snaps (64%)
• DT Jeremiah Ledbetter played 38 defensive snaps (45%)
• DT Tyler Lacy played 37 defensive snaps (44%)
• DT Jordan Jefferson played 20 defensive snaps (24%)

It was an incredible day for the Jaguars defensive front against this Vikings offensive line, anchored by former Jaguars LT Cam Robinson. Josh Hines-Allen had his way with Robinson early and often, starting the day off with a near-sack of Sam Darnold while dominating Robinson on the snap (see the left tackle to the top of the screen).

While Hines-Allen would end the day with only one tackle and no QB hits, he was a presence in the backfield, often pressuring Darnold while matched up against Robinson.

Meanwhile, Travon Walker came away with a sack, a tackle for loss, a QB hit, and a very timely celebration also.

4) Run defense: Jacksonville’s run defense played reasonably well in this one, limiting Minnesota to just 3.9 yards per rush. However, it should be noted that Vikings starting running back Aaron Jones, who had 88-yards on 17 carries (5.2 YPC) was often in and out of the lineup seemingly due to an injury, before leaving the game for good in the third quarter. RB Cam Akers (38 yards on 13 carries) was an obvious downgrade. Nevertheless, you can only face who’s on the field.

5) Pass defense: The Jaguars pass defense played extremely well in limiting the more explosive passes. However, it should be noted that the unit’s ongoing struggles in corralling opposing TEs still exists. Minnesota TEs TJ Hockenson and Josh Oliver combined had 12 catches, for 124 yards, on 15 targets. However, one could (rightfully) argue that the 124-yards and no touchdowns to TEs is worth the cost of holding Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to 7 catches for 73-yards and zero touchdowns combined. With the secondary bringing in three interceptions, Ronald Darby intercepting a fourth that was called back for a penalty (that he also fumbled), and breaking up a pass that easily could have been a fifth this was simply an amazing performance by the secondary and rush as a whole.

6) Overall performance or scheme: Jacksonville’s defense in no uncertain terms played winning bend, but don’t break defense on Sunday. While they may have struggled to get the Vikings offense off the field, allowing longer drives than preferred, 12 points surrendered with three turnovers is one heck of a day by Nielsen’s unit. While perfection is always the aim, this performance was as close to it as you could reasonably hope for in the NFL.

Offense:

7) Jaguars WR/TE Snap Counts

• WR Brian Thomas Jr played 38 offensive snaps (86%)
• WR Gabe Davis played 38 offensive snaps (86%)
• WR Parker Washington played 23 offensive snaps (52%)
• WR Tim Jones played 6 played 6 offensive snaps (14%)
• TE Evan Engram played 37 offensive snaps (84%)
• TE Brenton Strange played 18 offensive snaps (41%)
• TE Luke Farrell played 16 offensive snaps (36%)

8) WR/TE EPA (Expected Points Added):

• TE Luke Farrell: 1.4 EPA on 2 targets resulting in 2 catches for 16-yards
• TE Evan Engram: 0.3 EPA on 8 targets resulting in 6 catches for 40-yards
• TE Brenton Strange: -0.9 EPA on 3 targets resulting in 2 catches for 25-yards
• WR Brian Thomas Jr: -0.9 EPA on 3 targets resulting in 2 catches for 12-yards
• WR Gabe Davis: -4.4 EPA on 4 targets resulting in 1 catch for 19-yards

When your WR group ends the day with just 31-yards receiving on three catches, you’re simply not going to have a good day. It seems inexcusable to only target all receivers just seven times combined. It feels much more egregious just giving Brian Thomas Jr two true targets in a full NFL game where he led the group in snaps played (the third “target” was a Mac Jones throw-away 7 yards over Thomas’ head, thrown out of bounds). Having your WR1 running wind sprints in a game where the offense scored just seven points feels cruel and unusual.

9) Jaguars RB Snap Counts

• RB Travis Etienne played 30 offensive snaps (68%)
• RB Tank Bigsby played 10 offensive snaps (23%)
• RB D’Ernest Johnson played 4 offensive snaps (9%) with no rush attempts or targets

10) RB EPA (Expected Points Added):

• RB Travis Etienne: -2.1 EPA on 11 carries for 44-yards & -0.9 EPA on 1 reception for -1 yard
• RB Tank Bigsby: -0.8 EPA on 2 carries for 2-yards

Jacksonville’s running backs struggled to find open lanes in this game that remained a close affair all throughout. However, the bigger issue was the performance of the core in pass protection against Minnesota, with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby combining to give up four combined pressures and two sacks (one from each Bigsby and Etienne, which we will discuss later).

And while many blamed the below free-runner sack on Tank Bigsby, from my perspective (based on how they played it throughout the game) seemed to be a breakdown with RT Anton Harrison whose job was to pick up the immediate pressure on the line (43), with the RB checking inside for the potentially blitzing linebacker. If correct, Harrison picks up Bigsby’s responsibility as Tank does as well. Meanwhile, Mac is left out to dry.

11) QB EPA (Expected Points Added): QB Mac Jones: -10.9 EPA on 31 plays (bottom 11th percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020) while going 14/22 for 111-yards, 0 passing TDs, 1 fumble lost on the snap, 2 interceptions, and 3 sacks for a loss of 24-yards (38.3 QBR)

After starting off strong on the first quarter 70-yard touchdown drive, Jones struggled to find an open receiver down the field once the scripted plays ended. His struggles partially came due to blocking issues from the team’s running back core and offensive line, but also due to Jones infrequently taking the check down. With three second half turnovers, on the final three series, the offense had no shot at winning this one. The two interceptions were rough, primarily the final interception one, with two open options available, as broken down in depth by SB Nation’s JP Acosta here.

12) Offensive Line Performance: I thought Mitch Morse struggled in this one, even before the botched fourth quarter snap that led to a lost fumble. On multiple plays he was driven back into Mac Jones’ lap or bullrushed into the running back. While not being credited with an official pressure, these instances move the QB off of his spot causing a reset or pressure from elsewhere. This one wasn’t his strongest matchup.

Backup LG Blake Hance also struggled to hold the point of attack in the run game in this one on multiple plays. He was reasonably fine from my perspective, in pass protection. Walker Little had a nice rebound performance after struggling in pass protection on a few key downs versus Philadelphia. His run blocking performance was still slightly up and down, where Vikings DE Jonathan Greenard had an extremely dominant game, with three stops, per PFF. However, Little’s excellent pass pro performance should be noted.

And while certain publications may list Walker Little as giving up zero pressures, the film doesn’t really agree, as the final interception throw occurred with a blindside hit from Blake Cashman against Walker Little. This one was similar to the Tank Bigsby/Anton Harrison miscommunication sack, but with essentially a stunt requiring communication. While Etienne tries to block both the blitzing LB and Cashman Little is unable to get a strong hand on either. Still a good game by Walker, however.

13) Overall performance: On the box score, Minnesota won the day in staggering fashion, dominating in total yards (402 to 143), passing yards (233 to 87), rushing yards (169 to 56), first downs (28 to 10), yards per play (4.9 to 3.3), and time of possession (42:19 to 17:41).

15) Play Calling: After Minnesota began the day showing pressure, as Brian Flores is prone to doing, then inverting roles with an inverted Cover 2 on the backend Mac Jones was able to find a little space on the 70-yard TD drive. After that series, Flores began showing that same pressure but blitzed LB Blake Cashman for the sack versus Tank Bigsby, while later sending creeper pressures on the final drive with Ivan Pace that also resulted in a sack with Travis Ettiene blocking.

Jacksonville’s offense could never counter or recover, even after the half. You can’t win if you can’t block the other team. Meanwhile, it seems the staff never tried to win in the screen game with BTJ or the running backs, nor scheme touches for the young rookie, nor Parker Washington (who did not have a target with the team playing more 12-personnel (two-TE sets).

What were your takeaways from the game, BCC? Let us know in the comments!