Fantasy Football ‘24: Bounce back candidates

Welcome back, readers! August is moving along quickly and draft season for Fantasy Football redraft leagues is rapidly approaching. As we all dive into our player research for 2024, there’s a natural tendency to focus on the most recent performance information for players (the 2023 season), while paying less attention to their larger body of work. But we can’t just go with “what have you done for me lately” if we want to win at fantasy. We need to find values in our drafts, so it’s also important to try to identify players who are breakout candidates, and those who are coming off of one or more sub-par seasons (for them), but who have a decent shot of bouncing back to better production. If you can draft a couple of breakout and bounce back candidates and they hit, you get a big advantage. Not only do you get their elevated fantasy performance (and points), but you might be able to get them at a discounted price.

So let’s take a look at a few players at each position who fit the bounce back profile. I’m not necessarily recommending drafting these players. I’m just trying to identify them, so that you can kick the tires further. My focus today is mainly on players at the higher ends of fantasy rankings, but there are some bounce back candidates further down the board too. You can find my July rankings, tiers and player commentary for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end at our Fantasy Football Hub Page.

Obviously, players coming off a season where injuries cost them a big chunk of games are bounce back candidates. Players like that aren’t the focus of this article. I’m not going to write about Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Christian Watson, or Justin Jefferson, to name a few obvious ones. I’ll only hit on players coming off of an injury-plagued season if there’s another big reason (or two) for a likely resurgence. Also, in order to be a bounce back candidate, you have to have been a real thing in fantasy for at least one full season at some point prior to falling off last season. Anthony Richardson, Drake London, JSN, and Kyle Pitts aren’t bounce back candidates. They’re breakout candidates, and it’s important to understand the difference. Almost by definition, all of the players I’ll be talking about today are at least 3-year veterans.

OK, with that out of the way, let’s dive in. All stats and rankings shown are for Half-point PPR, and unless otherwise specified are on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis.

Set Number: X164496 TK1

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes

Wait…some fantasy writer is trying to tell me that the guy who quarterbacked the Chiefs to wins in the last two Super Bowls and is clearly the best QB on the planet is a bounce back candidate? What? Yes, that’s exactly what I’m doing, so hear me out. While Mahomes again scaled the highest heights of the NFL last season, he flat-out disappointed in fantasy and had his worst season from a statistical standpoint since he became the KC starter in 2018. Mahomes averaged just 18.4 FPPG last season, which made him the QB10 among QBs who made at least ten starts. For perspective, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield all were within one point of his scoring average, and all three of those guys were drafted well outside the Top 12 quarterbacks last season. In the three seasons prior to 2023, Mahomes finished as the QB1, QB4, and QB4. If you draft him this season, that’s the stud performance you’re hoping for.

Mahomes is a very good scrambler, but isn’t an elite dual-threat quarterback like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson. That makes it harder for him (and others who aren’t elite dual-threats) to finish near the top of the QB rankings. The scoring advantage of the prolific rushing QBs is that big. For Mahomes to finish as a Top-5 quarterback again in 2024, he’ll need to put up the kind of elite passing numbers that were the norm for him before last season. His 27 TD passes and 4,183 passing yards in 2023 were about 12 TDs and 700 yards lower than his average over the prior three seasons. What went wrong in 2023? Well, for one thing KC had a bad group of receivers who couldn’t catch the football, and for another, the Chiefs’ defense was outstanding, and the team didn’t get into many shootouts. Kansas City added both Hollywood Brown and first round speedster Xavier Worthy this off-season, and even with Rashee Rice likely facing some sort of suspension, the pass-catching corps (which still includes Travis Kelce) figures to be much better, and Andy Reid is still there designing the offense. It’s hard to doubt Mahomes, and his Average Draft Position (ADP) as the QB4 suggests that a bounce back is widely expected.

Kyler Murray

Murray missed the first ten games of the 2023 season, recovering from a torn ACL suffered in 2022. But he makes this list because of a combination of him now being one full year removed from his injury (as they say, “the year after the year after”) AND because of significant improvements to his weaponry. The Cardinals snagged Marvin Harrison, Jr. with the 4^th overall pick in the draft, and he’s one of the most heralded rookie receivers of the last decade. Tight end Trey McBride went off when Murray returned to the lineup last fall and enters his third season—often a big breakout year for pass-catchers. The team also added Zay Jones and rookie RB Trey Benson, and all in all, this should be the best group of skill players that Arizona has had since it took Murray with the first overall pick in the 2019 draft. At the same time, Arizona should still have a below-average defense, so he’ll have to put up points. All of the ingredients are there for Murray (who is an elite dual-threat) to return to the kind of form we saw earlier in his career. He averaged 18.9 FPPG in his seven starts last season. There’s reason to believe he could be closer to the 24.4 and 22.2 FPPG that he averaged in 2020 and 2021. Murray finished as the QB2 in 2020, and a Top-5 finish in 2024 wouldn’t be a shock. He’ll be making my “Players to Target at ADP” column later this month.

Matthew Stafford

The next two quarterbacks are more for Superflex consideration than for finding a starter in a 1-QB league. Stafford finished as the QB5 in 2021, when the Rams won the Super Bowl. After an injury-plagued 2022 campaign, he stayed healthy for most of last season and finished as the QB16. Stafford is 36, so he’s no spring chicken. But with Cooper Kupp healthy again, and the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua last season, Stafford has what could be a sneaky-elite WR duo, and an elite offensive Head Coach in Sean McVay. The Rams also have what should be the best offensive line that Stafford has played behind since he came over from the Lions. Rams’ RBs scored 17 rushing TDs last season. It’s easy to project that number going down in favor of a few more red-zone passing TDs. Quarterback is deep this season, but it’s not crazy to project Stafford as surprising us with a low-end QB1 finish.

Geno Smith

Let’s stay in the NFC West for one more. This one is a little tricky, because Geno’s QB8 finish in 2022 came out of nowhere, and after last season’s disappointing QB18 finish, 2022 feels fluky. But he fits the profile for this list. He’s got a strong set of receiving weapons, a good pair of backs, and a new coaching staff that should bring some fresh ideas to the Seattle offense. One concern here is that the team added Sam Howell as the backup quarterback, and if 33 year-old Geno struggles early, we could see Howell starting games at some point.

Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Running back

Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs

I’m lumping these two players together because there are so many similarities in making the case for a bounce back. Both are 26. Both finished as Top-5 running backs in 2022, before falling out of the Top-10 last season. Both have changed teams this off-season, with each one moving from a sub-par offense with below-average QB play to an excellent one with strong quarterback play and plenty of other playmakers. In the case of Barkley (RB11 in 2023), the main concern is that Jalen Hurts has been Philadelphia’s goal-line back, with an astounding 28 rushing TDs scored over the last two seasons. In the case of Jacobs, the main concern is that Matt LaFleur has shown a tendency to share the backfield touches, and rookie MarShawn Lloyd and A.J. Dillon may take away just enough work to keep Jacobs from putting up RB1 numbers. Those concerns (and a few others) are valid, and if you read my Kickoff Column you know that I’m being a little careful with most of the RBs who changed teams. But a strong bounce back case is still there for both players.

Tony Pollard

Just you wait until Pollard has the Cowboys backfield all to himself! He will be a Top-5 running back! Why isn’t he getting the ball more than Zeke? He’s much better!

That’s some of what we heard from pretty much everyone who plays or writes about fantasy football for several seasons while the talented Pollard put up explosive performances and impressive numbers in the Cowboys’ No. 2 running back role. He finished as the RB7 two seasons ago, despite Ezekiel Elliott getting a lot of the early-down work and most of the goal-line chances (it helped that Zeke missed a few games, and when that happened Pollard did exactly what the pundits said he would do). When Elliott left the Cowboys for New England last off-season, the door was open for Pollard to put up his long-awaited monster campaign. It didn’t happen. Pollard, who broke his leg at San Francisco in the 2022 NFC Divisional Round, never looked like the same player in 2023. Whatever it was, he pretty much flopped vs. his lofty ADP, finishing the season as the RB18. He scored single digit points in half of the team’s games from Week 1-17. Pollard is another player who switched teams this off-season and while the Titans had one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines last season, they tried hard to address it (including taking a tackle with the seventh overall pick in the draft). They also have a second year back (Tyjae Spears) who has talent and profiles similar to Pollard. Still, Pollard should start the season in at least a 50-50 share, and he is now a full year removed from his big leg injury. He could revert to better production in 2024, at a much cheaper price.

Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images

Wide receiver

Cooper Kupp

OK, this is the one instance where I’ll talk about a player whose bounce back case is mostly related to his own injuries. Kupp has missed 13 games over the past two seasons. But I list Kupp here for all of the reasons I discussed when I talked about Matt Stafford. It’s easy to forget that Kupp won the receiving triple crown in 2021, given his underperformance the last two seasons. His own injuries, plus some injuries to his quarterback, were the main culprits. Kupp is on the wrong side of 30, but he put up very good numbers when he returned from injury last season. Meanwhile, he and Stafford both started camp fully healthy, while presumptive WR1 Puka Nacua suffered a recent knee injury and is now “week to week”. The door is open for Kupp to emerge as the team’s WR1, in what could be a really good and exciting offense. The possibility of a big bounce back for one of the game’s best shouldn’t be overlooked.

Tee Higgins

This one is really about the health of the QB. Higgins was a solid WR2 for fantasy in both 2021 (WR12) and 2022 (WR18), but then fell outside of the Top 36 WRs last season. He missed some time with injuries, but what hurt him the most was his quarterback starting the season at less than 100%, and then suffering a season-ending wrist injury later in the season. Higgins did have back-to-back 20 point games with Jake Browning under center late in the season, but overall his production was very inconsistent and he ended up averaging less than 10 FPPG for the season. While we are here, Ja’Marr Chase, who finished last season as the WR10 (a disappointment for a player of his stature), is also a candidate to return to his expected form IF Burrow’s wrist really is fine, and he can avoid other injuries. Unfortunately, as of right now I think that’s a big if.

Jaylen Waddle

After finishing as the WR15 in his rookie season and the WR7 in his second year, Waddle fell off to WR22 last season, despite playing in the league’s second-highest scoring offense. Waddle did have some injury issues in 2023, but maybe the main issue was just bad TD luck. He only scored four of them, while Miami’s running backs accounted for a ludicrous 34 total TDs, or two per game. In 2022 Waddle led the NFL at 18.1 yards per reception, and his big-play potential gets a little overlooked with Tyreek Hill operating in the same offense. Entering his fourth season, and with Waddle and Tua both sporting big new contracts, Waddle has a great chance to enjoy some positive TD regression and vault back up into low-end WR1/high-end WR2 range this season.

Stefon Diggs

I don’t have a lot of conviction on Diggs fully returning to form, but what happened with him last season was truly bizarre, and he gets a fresh start this season with one of the game’s up-and-coming QB stars. Diggs has had some terrific seasons and was on his way to another one last year before the wheels completely fell off. If you had him on your roster, you know what I’m talking about. He was the WR3 from the start of the season through Week 9 (with double digit fantasy points in every game), and then…CRASH! He was the WR55 from Week 10 through Week 17, with only one double digit weekly performance during that stretch. Yes, You read that right. I said 55. Diggs turned 30 in the middle of that swoon, so maybe age is a factor. He’s a hard player to project this season, as for the first time in a long time he isn’t the clear No. 1 wide receiver on his team. He may not even be the second best WR for fantasy on the Texans. Still, Diggs finished as a Top-10 wide receiver every season from 2020-2022, and a return to something a little short of that is within reason.

Tight end

Pat Freiermuth

Want to hear something crazy? Kenny Pickett started 12 games for the Steelers last season and threw six TD passes. Six! Want to hear something crazier? The other two QBs who started games for the Steelers last season weren’t much better, and the team only managed to score 13 TDs via the forward pass in 2023. Thirteen! What is this, 1958? Whatever you think of aging Russell Wilson and erratic Justin Fields, they’re a massive upgrade from the dumpster fire triarchy that Mike Tomlin trotted out at quarterback last season, and that’s good news for all of the Steelers pass catchers. Fun fact: Freiermuth is the only TE in NFL history to catch at least 60 balls in each of his first two seasons. Fun fact No. 2: Diontae Johnson has led the Steelers in targets and catches in four of the last five seasons. Fun fact No. 3: Johnson is now a Panther (and is a decent a bounce back candidate in his own right, by the way, after a down year where he struggled to stay healthy). Freiermuth needs to stay on the field and he’s had several concussions already, which is a concern. But if he can stay healthy, he should be able to build on what he did in his first two seasons, when he looked like he was on his way to becoming a reliable low-end TE1 in fantasy.

Boing! That’s the sound of a rubber ball hitting the pavement and those are my higher-profile bounce back candidates for 2024. Coming soon: Players to avoid and target at ADP, so don’t touch that dial!