The Syrian Side of the Golan After Assad's Downfall: Interview

In the wake of the downfall of the Assad regime, reports have emerged of an Israeli military push onto the Syrian side of the Golan as well as airstrikes against military installations and positions once held by Assad’s military forces. What are the reasons for these actions?

One interpretation is that Israel is seizing on an opportunity created by the vacuum of Assad’s downfall and thus grabbing territory merely for the sake of expansionism. This view, however, misunderstands what the nature of Israeli policy has been towards Syria since the outset of the war. Israeli policy can be understood by two main principles: (i) minimise the threat posed by Iran and Hezbollah, and (ii) minimise the threat posed by anarchy.

The former meant hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah positions within Assad-held territory as well as any Syrian military and government assets that were used for the supply of weapons to Hezbollah. It also meant the supporting of a ‘buffer-zone’ in the sense of an area controlled by insurgents on the border with the Golan Heights to try to keep Iran and Hezbollah away. However, the Israelis were not invested enough in this ‘buffer-zone’ policy to try to maintain it and stop the regime offensive that reclaimed control of southern Syria from the insurgents in 2018.

For the time being, this objective of minimising the threat posed by Iran and Hezbollah is not of relevance following the collapse of the Assad regime and withdrawal of Iran and Hezbollah personnel from Syria. Indeed, with the collapse of the Assad regime came the swift collapse of the Iranian and Hezbollah-supported networks of Syrian personnel in the ‘Local Defence Forces.’ As I have noted, many of those I know who worked with the Iranians and Hezbollah are now on board with the trend of celebrating the fall of the Assad regime.

The latter principle of minimising the anarchy threat meant that in general, there was a preference for there to be some central government rather than chaos. Having known the Assad dynasty for more than half a century and its track record of not pursuing military escalation on the Golan front (a policy that was apparent most recently during the Israel-Hezbollah war), Israel preferred the Assad regime to having no government. This does not mean that the two sides were in some sort of secret alliance, but rather that it was not Israel’s policy during the war to push for Assad’s overthrow, as there did not appear to be a clear alternative in waiting. In other words, the Assad regime represented a ‘devil you know’ for Israel: a problematic actor by virtue of the alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, but preferable to an alternative that might be perceived as worse.

Now that the Assad regime is no more and a central authority clearly asserting its control across Syrian territory has yet to be constituted, minimising anarchy is more relevant for Israel than ever. Amid the collapse of the regime, a considerable amount of military equipment has simply been abandoned, criminal looting has been proliferating, and there are valid concerns about whether military assets could fall into the hands of rogue elements who might target Israel’s border along the Golan Heights. In this regard then, the further Israeli entry into Syrian territory to establish a ‘buffer-zone’ and its strikes on Syrian military assets are very different from the ‘buffer-zone’ and strikes that were intended to minimise the Iran and Hezbollah threat. The further push into Syrian territory should in fact be interpreted as Israeli officials are presenting it: i.e. a temporary measure until there is stabilisation with the formation of a central government authority (whose exact nature is yet to be determined) that can exert law and order.

To discuss the issue of what exactly Israel has been doing in its move into al-Qunaytra province on the Syrian side of the Golan, here is an interview with a source in the al-Qunaytra town of Khan Arnabeh (which the Israelis have not entered yet).

Meeting with locals in al-Qunaytra and United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) regarding the Israeli military’s push into al-Qunaytra province.


Q: What is the situation in al-Qunaytra?