Financial

We develop a pricing algorithm for US-style period-average reset options written on an underlying asset which evolves in a Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) framework. The averaging feature of such an option on the reset period makes the price valuation problem computationally unfeasible because the arithmetic average is not recombining on a CRR tree. To overcome this obstacle, we associate to each node of the lattice belonging to the reset period a set of representative averages chosen among all the effective arithmetic averages attained at that node. On the remaining time to maturity, a US period-average reset option becomes a US standard one and the Barone Adesi-Whaley approximation is used to compute an option value in correspondence to each representative average lain at the end of the reset period.

[Excerpt] Using data from a large cross section of British establishments, we ask how different firm characteristics are associated with the predicted benefits to organizational performance from using team production. To compute the predicted benefits from using team production, we estimate structural models for financial performance, labor productivity, and product quality, treating the firm's choices of whether or not to use teams and whether or not to grant teams autonomy as endogenous. One of the main results is that many firm characteristics are associated with larger predicted benefits from teams to labor productivity and product quality but smaller predicted benefits to financial performance. For example, this is true for union recognition as measured by the number of recognized unions in an establishment. Similarly, when a particular firm characteristic is associated with lower benefits from teams to labor productivity or product quality, the same characteristic is frequently associated with higher predicted benefits to financial performance. This is true for the degree of financial participation and employee ownership and also for establishment size and a number of industries. These results highlight the advantages of analyzing broader measures of organizational performance that are more inclusive of the wide spectrum of benefits and costs associated with teams than the labor productivity measures frequently studied in the teams literature.

This study provides an atypical analysis of the factors linked to stock price movements. We seek to determine the firm characteristics most associated with high magnitude shifts in stock prices, positive or negative, and then seek to determine whether such findings may be used to identify extreme movers in future periods. We find option implied volatility to be an important indicator of future extreme price movements. However, after controlling for implied volatility levels, other factors, particularly firm age and size, have additional power to predict extreme future price movements. The identification of stocks more likely to experience extreme movements aids in market-wide portfolio selection. When such firms are discarded from the market-type portfolio, daily portfolio standard deviation decreases while realized returns do not decline.

We examine the relationship between volatility and past and future returns using high-frequency aggregate equity index data. Consistent with a prolonged “leverage” effect, we find the correlations between absolute high-frequency returns and current and past high-frequency returns to ...

Regularities in risk-adjusted returns for securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) are examined in this study. A significant price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio effect is documented for the first time for a non-US market, the TSE. Significant interaction between the P/E effect and the previously documented size and seasonal effects for the TSE are also documented. These results imply that studies of TSE companies must account for these return regularities and that explanations for such effects observed for US and other markets that are based ...

This paper strives to examine the role of international market entry in optimizing the effects of business strategies and financial decisions on SMEs’ performance. In addition, this study analyzes the role of financing access in moderating the effects of business strategies and financial access. The research sample was comprised of 250 SMEs from various industries in the city of Salatiga, Central Java Province, and the city of Medan, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. A Partial Least Squares (PLS) - Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was utilized to test the hypotheses. In general, this research demonstrates that: (1) business strategies and financial decisions are the determinants of international market entry, (2) business strategies are a determinant of SMEs’ performance, (3) business strategies and international market entry are factors of SMEs’ performance, and (4) international market entry optimizes the effects of business strategies on SMEs’ performance.

This paper documents that discounts and premia on closed-end bond funds exhibit the same sensitivity to broad market returns as stock fund discounts. Despite this, stock funds sell on average at discounts from net asset value while bond funds sell at small premia. This pattern calls into question the conclusion that the average level of the discount rate can be rationalized by appealing to the systematic nature of discount risk. These results indicate that appeals to investor sentiment, which have been hypothesized as a source of fund discounts, do not fully resolve the puzzle of closed-end fund discounts.

This study examines the relationship between financial development and life insurance demand in Sub-Saharan Africa with a sample of fifteen countries. These countries are Nigeria, South Africa, Namibia, Cameroon, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Mozambique, Togo, Benin, Senegal, Cape Verde and Zambia. The specific objectives are to determine the relative effect of financial depth, as well as major macroeconomic factors, preferences and life insurance demand in the sampled countries. It is argued in this study that the traditional textbook and theoretical factors driving demand for life insurance may not be extensively dominant in the case of Sub-Sahara Africa where low formal financial patronage are rife. Using annual data covering the period 1990 – 2011 (22 years), the study applies the panel data estimation, which allows for endogenization of individual country characteristics in the analysis. The model adopted in this study categorises all the necessary macroeconomic f...

In this paper, the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method is extended by applying the theory of cointegration in case of hedging with European Currency Unit (ECU) futures contracts. Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratio estimated by the error correction method is superior to the one obtained from the traditional method, as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Hedgers can control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.

This paper studies the impact of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion on equilibrium asset prices and portfolio holdings in competitive financial markets. It argues that attitudes toward ambiguity are heterogeneous across the population, just as attitudes toward risk are heterogeneous across the population, but that heterogeneity of attitudes toward ambiguity has different implications than heterogeneity of attitudes toward risk. In particular, when some state probabilities are not known, agents who are sufficiently ambiguity averse find open sets of prices for which they refuse to hold an ambiguous portfolio. This suggests a different cross-section of portfolio choices, a wider range of state price/probability ratios and different rankings of state price/probability ratios than would be predicted if state probabilities were known. Experiments confirm all of these suggestions. Our findings contradict the claim that investors who have cognitive biases do not affect prices because they are infra-marginal: ambiguity averse investors have an indirect effect on prices because they change the per-capita amount of risk that is to be shared among the marginal investors. Our experimental data also suggest a positive correlation between risk aversion and ambiguity aversion that might explain the "value effect" in historical data.

This study aims to test whether profitability acts as a moderating variable that is able to moderate the influence of the company growth and capital structure on the firm value. The independent variables used in this study are company growth and capital structure, while profitability is the moderating variable.The research sample was taken from manufacturing industrial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2016 - 2018. The study used panel data which is a combination of cross section and time series data, with data analysis using multiple regression.The results showed that company growth and profitability had a positive effect on the firm value, while capital structure had does not effect. The results of the analysis show that profitability does not moderate the effect of company growth and capital structure on the firm value, the interaction of company growth and capital structure with profitability has a negative impact on the firm value.

Artificial neural networks learn how to solve new problems through a computationally intense and time consuming process. One way to reduce the amount of time required is to inject preexisting knowledge into the network. To make use of past knowledge, we can take advantage of techniques that transfer the knowledge learned from one task, and reuse it on another (sometimes unrelated) task. In this paper we propose a novel selective breeding technique that extends the transfer learning with behavioural genetics approach proposed by Kohli, Magoulas and Thomas (2013), and evaluate its performance on financial data. Numerical evidence demonstrates the credibility of the new approach. We provide insights on the operation of transfer learning and highlight the benefits of using behavioural principles and selective breeding when tackling a set of diverse financial applications problems.

Stock market returns are significantly correlated with inflation and money growth. The impact of real macroeconomic variables on aggregate equity returns has been difficult to establish, perhaps because their effects are neither linear nor time invariant. We estimate a GARCH model of daily equity returns, where realized returns and their conditional volatility depend on 17 macro series' announcements. We find six candidates for priced factors: three nominal (CPI, PPI, and a Monetary Aggregate) and three real (Balance of Trade, Employment Report, and Housing Starts). Popular measures of overall economic activity, such as Industrial Production or GNP are not represented.

This paper studies distinctions between fixed-price and Dutch auction selftenders for common stock. We find that fixed-price tenders pay higher premiums to retire greater equity fractions than Dutch offers yet generate similar total returns to stockholders. Accordingly, total returns are significantly higher in Dutch auctions after controlling for tender and firm characteristics. In addition, wealth transfers to owners of repurchased shares are significantly higher in fixed-price offers. The Dutch mechanism thus appears to induce increases in firm value with smaller disbursals of cash. These cost savings to investors who maintain their ownership may explain the popularity of the new technique.

One of the most important developments in modern investment theory is the efficient market hypothesis. Market efficiency refers to the speed with which information is rationally absorbed. Thus, statements about market efficiency are always made with respect to a particular set of information. Three information sets with respect to which the market mayor may not be efficient have been defined, resulting in the weak, semi-strong, and strong form efficient market hypothesis. Weak form efficiency refers to efficiency with respect to past prices, semi-strong form to all publicly available information, and strong form to all available information, public or private. All three forms of the efficient market hypothesis have been tested by researchers. For an excellent review see Fama [5]. Only the weak-form hypothesis is of concern in this paper. The study compares the performance of the market portfolio with those of portfolios that are mean-beta efficient on the basis of historical means and betas. The tests are important because they have implications for both the multi-security weak-form efficient market hypothesis and the construction of efficient portfolios. It is unfortunate that the word "efficient" is used to convey very different concepts in portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis. What is even more ironic is that the two concepts are actually contradictory. If the market is truly efficient, it does not matter if efficient portfolios are derived with historical return and risk measures, historical measures adjusted for other publicly or privately available information, or completely subjective measures. The efficient portfolios cannot be expected to consistently earn returns superior to that yielded by the market portfolio. On the other hand, if any of these portfolios can earn consistently superior returns, then the market cannot be efficient. Although this paradox has not been addressed directly before, studies by Cohen and Pogue [3] and Frankfurter [8] do contain some relevant results. Cohen and Pogue found that efficient portfolios outperformed random portfolios of 50 securities. Frankfurter, on the other hand, found efficient portfolios to perform only as well as the market portfolio. Since Evans and Archer [4] have shown that random porfolios of the size used by Cohen and Pogue are essentially equivalent to the market portfolio, the two sets of results are contradictory. A problem with the results is that the tests were both conducted on a very limited number of securities and for only one time period. For example, although Frankfurter utilized a sample of 522 stocks to construct his efficient portfolios, he selected only one portfolio for comparison with the market portfolio, the portfolio being one with the risk equal to that of the market portfolio. When the efficient portfolio was found to be insignificantly different from the market portfolio, the conclusion was drawn that the efficient portfolios only perform as well as the market portfolio. It should be remembered, of course, that the main purpose of

The phenomenon of low-balling reported in the financial press involves downward biased projections of earnings by managers or analysts, thereby artificially lowering market expectations and creating a positive earnings surprise when actual earnings are announced. This study reports that the stock market does respond to such surprises relative to analysts' reported forecasts. Further, the proportion of insider buy-transactions in the period prior to the earnings forecast is significantly higher for the sample with high positive earnings surprise than for the control sample with zero forecast errors. The study cannot distinguish whether managers or analysts are the source of the low-balling and therefore makes no statement on the legality of such insider trades.

The study aimed to investigate the factors that affect the solvency of the insurance companies in Palestine and to highlight the nature and strength of the relationship between liquidity, investment, leverage, claims and the solvency of the insurance companies in Palestine.To achieve the objectives of the study, the descriptive and quantitative analysis methods were used in the study. Based on the data of the financial statements of seven insurance companies (out of 9 companies) and by using regression of fixed effects of panel data for 2010-2017, the study found that the claims have a positive effect on the financial solvency and leverage has a negative effect on the solvency of insurance companies in Palestine, while investment and liquidity have an insignificant effect on financial solvency.

showed that portfolio rebalancing based on NBER business cycle turning points substantially improves in-sample Markowitz efficiency. In a similar vein, we investigate potential improvements from rebalancing based on turning points in the monetary cycle. We find that the monetary cycle has greater influence than the business cycle on the variance/covariance structure of multiple asset classes. Furthermore, we find substantial improvements in in-sample efficiency beyond a buy-and-hold strategy and the business-cycle approach. Importantly, our indicator of monetary cycle turning points has a practical advantage over NBER business cycle turning points, in that it relies only on ex ante information. In out-of-sample tests, we continue to find superior portfolio performance after transactions costs using the monetary cycle to time portfolio rebalancing.

Taxes and Capital Structure: Evidence from Firms' Response to the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Dan Givoly Tel Aviv University and Northwestern University Carla Hayn Northwestern University Aharon R. Ofer Tel Aviv University and Northwestern University Oded Sarig Q Tel Aviv University ...

This paper is focused on the economics of financing banking supervision. Two questions are investigated: What are the most common financing practices? Can we explain differences in current financing practices by country specific factors, using a path dependence approach? Given a sample of 90 banking supervisors (central banks and financial authorities), we perform an empirical analysis that identifies the determinants of the financing structure of banks´ prudential supervision. First, the financing rule is a function of the type of supervisory authority: if the supervisor is a central bank the public funding is more likely to occur, while the probability of a supervision funded via a levy on the regulated banks is higher if the supervisor is a financial authority. Secondly, the financing rule depends on the structure of the financial systems. In the bank oriented systems, the public funding is more likely to occur. Finally the geographical factor is also significant: European countries seem to be more oriented towards the private funding regime. In general we do not find evidence of the role of the political factor, the economy's size or the level of development and legal tradition.

This study examines the selectivity and market-timing ability of international mutual fund managers. Ninety-seven international mutual funds with a minimum of five-year return history selected from the Morningstar OnDisc database are analyzed. Our findings suggest that managers of international mutual funds possess good selectivity and overall performance. We also find weak evidence of poor market-timing ability. Consistent with prior findings from domestic mutual funds, there is a negative correlation between the international fund managers' selection ability and market-timing ability. Finally, managers for European funds show poorer performance than those managing the other three international fund groups.

Abstract—Artificial neural networks learn how to solve new problems through a computationally intense and time consuming process. One way to reduce the amount of time required is to inject pre-existing knowledge into the network. To make use of past knowledge, we can take advantage of techniques that transfer the knowledge learned from one task, and reuse it on another (sometimes unrelated) task. In this paper we propose a novel selective breeding technique that extends the transfer learning with behavioural genetics approach proposed by Kohli, Magoulas and Thomas (2013), and evaluate its performance on financial data. Numerical evidence demonstrates the credibility of the new approach. We provide insights on the operation of transfer learning and highlight the benefits of using behavioural principles and selective breeding when tackling a set of diverse financial applications problems. Keywords—transfer learning, artificial neural networks, ge-netic algorithms, population studies, ...

Academic research has highlighted the inherent flaws within the RiskMetrics model and demonstrated the superiority of the GARCH approach in-sample. However, these results do not necessarily extend to forecasting performance. This paper seeks answer to the question of whether RiskMetrics volatility forecasts are adequate in comparison to those obtained from GARCH models. To answer the question stock index data is taken from 31 international markets and subjected to two exercises, a straightforward volatility forecasting exercise and a Value-at-Risk exceptions forecasting competition. Our results provide some simple answers to the above question. When forecasting volatility of the G7 stock markets the APARCH model, in particular, provides superior forecasts that are significantly different from the RiskMetrics models in over half the cases. This result also extends to the European markets with the APARCH model typically preferred. For the Asian markets the RiskMetrics model performs well, and is only significantly dominated by the GARCH models for one market, although there is evidence that the APARCH model provides a better forecast for the larger Asian markets. Regarding the Value-at-Risk exercise, when forecasting the 1% VaR the RiskMetrics model does a poor job and is typically the worst performing model, again the APARCH model does well. However, forecasting the 5% VaR then the RiskMetrics model does provide an adequate performance. In short, the RiskMetrics model only performs well in forecasting the volatility of small emerging markets and for broader VaR measures.

Limited resources, recent reforms of educational system that impose rapid changes in the governance system, high demand for managerial skill and operational autonomy, impose the capability to optimize performance, transparency of behaviour, dialogue with stakeholder to grow results in the school system. It therefore draws attention to the importance of activate long-term positive relations between schools, students, families, governmental authority and other structures of public Administration to improve quality and performance in school management. So is critical an effectiveness accountability system as starting point to develop the quality of relations between the schools and their stakeholders. In this regard, this article proposes the Network Governance as lever to improve an effectiveness stakeholder engagement and to optimize performance in the School System. This study represents a dissertation that aims to raise awareness about the cycle of performance management in schools...

This article solves a realistically calibrated life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with non-tradable labor income and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutes for riskless asset holdings, the optimal share invested in equities is roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of the importance of human capital for investment behavior. We find that ignoring labor income generates large utility costs, while the cost of ignoring only its risk is an order of magnitude smaller, except when we allow for a disastrous labor income shock. Moreover, we study the implications of introducing endogenous borrowing constraints in this incomplete-markets setting.

I apply a multivariate one-step testing procedure to investigate a dual-beta CAPM. I begin by establishing that there is no statistical relation between beta and returns for the standard CAPM. I then re-cast the one-step test to accommodate a dual-beta CAPM under bull and bear market conditions. When the excess market return is negative (positive), I find strong evidence of a negative (positive) relation between beta and returns. The strength of my results suggests that the success of the model is not crucially dependent on the argument for beta instability.

In this paper, we investigate whether the level of derivative activities of Asia-Pacific banks is associated with the market's perception of their interest rate and exchange rate risks. The results suggest that the level of derivative activities (especially interest rate derivatives) is positively associated with long-term interest rate exposure (LTIR) but negatively associated with short-term interest rate exposure (STIR). Further investigations reveal that the positive LTIR exposures are driven by banks with extensive derivative activities. We do not find any significant association between banks' derivative activities and exchange rate exposure. The significant positive association between the level of derivative activities and LTIR suggests the need for better management of banks' internal control systems and/or greater derivative disclosure requirements to bring stronger market discipline to banks, particularly for banks with extensive derivative activities.

There is a significant positive relation between 'lbbin's q-ratio and the magnitude of stock market reaction to capital investment announcements. The findings have the following implications for capital investment theory: (i) The results provide evidence substantiating the link between the q-ratio and real investment for industrial fms. For public utilities however, no such link exists. (ii) The study finds that average q and marginal q are correlated but the relation is somewhat more complicated than simple equality as assumed by numerous empirical studies. (iii) The findings suggest that investors can use average Tobin's q-ratio to identify companies with profitable real capital investment opportunities.

This paper analyzes takeovers of dual class companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the period 1976 to 1989. It finds support for the hypothesis that despite the evidence that restricted shares sell at a discount compared to superior voting shares, takeover returns are the same for both classes of shares. Secondly, it tests the hypothesis that the classification of common equity into two classes confers differential takeover value on controlling shareholders and find that superior voting shares of dual class firms experience higher returns during takeovers than do shares of single class firms.

Banking crises are usually followed by low credit and GDP growth. Is this because crises tend to take place during economic downturns, or do banking sector problems have independent negative real effects? If banking crises exogenously hinder real activity, then sectors more dependent on external finance should perform relatively worse during banking crises. The evidence in this paper supports this view. The differential effects across sectors are stronger in developing countries, in countries with less access to foreign finance, and where banking crises were more severe. Robustness checks include controlling for recessions, currency crises, and alternative proxies for bank dependence. 2007 Published by Elsevier Inc. JEL classification: E44; G21

Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run timber supply. The current study aims to shed further light on harvesting decisions of private forest owners, by investigating optimal harvesting under uncertainty, when timber revenues are invested on financial markets and uncertainty is mitigated by news releases. By distinguishing between aggregate economic risk and sector specific risks, the model studies in great detail optimal harvesting-investment decisions, with particular emphasis on the non-trivial transmission of risk on optimal harvesting, and on the way private forest owners react to news and information. The analysis of the role played by information in harvesting decisions is a novelty in forest economic theory. The presented model is highly relevant from a policy-information is a commonly used forest policy instrument-as well as a practical perspective, since the mechanism of risk transmission is at the basis of timber pricing.

The purpose of this article is to study empirically the bank credit risk rating (BCRR) process over time using 89 banks from 27 EMENA countries rated by S&P’s simultaneously before and after 2007-09 crises. We made this comparison based on the CAMELS model with a proposed ‘S’ to BCRR. We use "ordered logit" regression for the rating classes and we complete our analysis by “linear multiple” regression for the rating grades. The results show that the rating changes in 2012 are mainly a methodology revision consequence of the entire rating process changes, including the weight of components, the important factors and the relevant variables in order to take into account some of the lessons learned from this global crisis. They also show a consistence between the BCRR's revealed and practiced methodologies revised by the credit rating agencies (CRAs).

The Financial Modernization Act of 1999 dramatically increased insurers' and investment banks' authority to provide an array of financial services and allowed commercial banks to offer investment banking and insurance services. In this paper we examine the market response to this legislation. We find a strong positive response among insurance companies and investment banks, and no significant response among commercial banks. Larger institutions in all three financial sectors earn higher abnormal returns. Additionally, better performing banks earn higher abnormal returns. Our results suggest that allowing financial convergence can add value through synergies and that large players are needed to exploit the scope economies.

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The increasing emphasis on the profitability of the hotel establishment has resulted in an expansion of the hotel controller's role. This article seeks to compare the profile and responsibilities of the controller in three countries, to ascertain whether the type of person employed may be generic or specific to a particular area. Results show that there are many similarities which, with the internationalisation of hotel groups, may allow the individual to transfer between countries, in order to maintain company standards.

Purpose: This paper explores the factors that affected the voluntary risk-related disclosures in the individual annual reports for 2006 of Portuguese banks. We also explore the extent to which in those reports conformed to Basel II requirements in terms of the voluntary disclosure of operational risk and capital structure and adequacy matters.

This research wants to find out how far internal control, organization culture and the quality of accounting information system will help the small-medium enterprises (SMEs) to prevent fraud. by applying the case study approach in achieving its aims and objectives. This study is done by a used case study from SMEs in the agriculture industry in Lampung province, Indonesia. The data were collected through observations and semi-structured interviews with employed and managerial staff. This research applied a mixed method in collecting and analyzing data, which were document analyses and interviews. Applying more than a single method in collecting data enables the researcher to compare and to verify the information accuracy (Brewer and Hunter 2006). This method can increase the credibility and validity of the findings because the final bias will depend on one method which later can be avoided (Yin 2012). This type of research is quantitative descriptive research. The purpose of this de...

This paper develops a pricing model and empirically tests the pricing efficiency of options on the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract. Empirical tests of the model indicate that the market consistently overprices these options relative to the derived model. This overpricing is more pronounced for out-of-the-money options than for in-the-money options and more pronounced for put options than for call options. To validate the above results, delta neutral portfolios are created for one-and two-day holding periods and consistently generate positive arbitrage profits, indicating that on average the market overprices the options on the USDX futures contracts.

Closed-end fund (CEF) discounts vary widely over time due to changes in share price, net asset value (NAV), or both. Prior studies suggest discounts are mean-reverting. We examine the mean-reversion issue by employing cointegration procedures. Specifically, we identify bond and equity CEFs that exhibit stationary time-series properties and find statistically significant error correction terms that quantify the speed of mean

Executives can only impact firm outcomes if they have influence over crucial decisions. On the basis of this idea, we develop and test the hypothesis that firms whose CEOs have more decision-making power should experience more variability in performance. Focusing ...

E-Paddy System which allow paddy farmers to record their financial and resources management and provide information or news related to paddy such as information about the pesticide, seeds and equipment. This system helps the users to manage their paddy management in a proper way to save time and cost. At the same time, it can deliver some news and knowledge through the application which the sources from the government agency in agriculture. This can increase user awareness and improve understanding of users in the management of paddy. This paper will show the overview of the system would look like by research and gather some data for user requirement.