'+pages+''); $('.stream > div:odd').addClass('bgr_color'); updateHeight('#history'); }); window.activateTabArea = ensure(function(tab, areas){ var parsed = false; var parts = (areas || '').split('/'); window.fsonload = $.inArray('fs', parts) >= 0; if(fsonload){ parts.splice(parts.indexOf('fs'), 1); } var replayMode = false; if($.inArray('replay', parts)>=0){ replayMode = 'replay'; } var noSoundMode = false; if($.inArray('nosound', parts)>=0){ noSoundMode = 'nosound'; } if($.inArray('ns', parts)>=0){ noSoundMode = 'ns'; } var previewMode = null; if($.inArray('p', parts)>=0){ previewMode = 'p'; } if($.inArray('preview', parts)>=0){ previewMode = 'preview'; } if($.inArray('repeat', parts)>=0){ replayMode = 'repeat'; } if($.inArray('r', parts)>=0 || $.inArray('ro', parts)>=0){ replayMode = 'r'; } if(replayMode){ parts.splice(parts.indexOf(replayMode), 1); } if(noSoundMode){ parts.splice(parts.indexOf(noSoundMode), 1); } if(previewMode){ parts.splice(parts.indexOf(previewMode), 1); } if(previewMode){ if(!parts.length){ parts = ['1-14', '999:59']; } } var area = parts[0]; if(tab == 'history' && false){ var page = parseInt(area || '1') || 1; $.ajax({ url: 'https://login.wn.com/recent/json/?pp='+history_pp+'&skip='+history_pp*(page-1), dataType: 'jsonp', success: function(response){ $ensure(function(){ renderHistory(response, page); }); } }); return true; } if(tab == 'global_history' && false){ var page = parseInt(area || '1') || 1; globalHistory.fetchStream(page, '', function(){ updateHeight('#global_history'); }); return true; } if(tab == 'my_playlists' && false){ var page = parseInt(area || '1') || 1; myPlaylists.fetchStream(page, '', function(){ updateHeight('#my_playlists'); }); return true; } if(tab == 'my_videos' && false){ var page = parseInt(area || '1') || 1; myVideos.fetchStream(page, '', function(){ updateHeight('#my_videos'); }); return true; } if(tab == 'related_sites' && areas && matchPosition(areas)){ var seconds = parsePosition(areas); scrollRelated(seconds); return false; } if(matchPosition(area) || matchAction(area)){ parts.unshift('1'); area = parts[0]; } if(tab == 'expand' && area && area.match(/\d+/)) { var num = parseInt(area); if(num < 100){ //FIX ME. Load news page with ajax here } else if(num > 1900){ //FIX ME. Load timeline page with ajax here } } else if(tab.match(/^playlist\d+$/)){ var playerId = parseInt(tab.substring(8)); var vp = videoplayers[playerId]; window.descriptionsholder = $('.descriptionsplace'); if(!vp) return; // why? no player? if(replayMode){ $('.replaycurrent'+playerId).attr('checked', true); vp.setReplayCurrent(true); } var playQueue = []; window.playQueue = playQueue; var playQueuePosition = 0; var playShouldStart = null; var playShouldStop = null; var parseList = function(x){ var items = x.split(/;|,/g); var results = []; for (i in items){ try{ var action = parseAction(vp, items[i]); if(!action.video){ if(window.console && console.log) console.log("Warning: No video for queued entry: " + items[i]); }else{ results.push(action); } }catch(e){ if(window.console && console.log) console.log("Warning: Can''t parse queue entry: " + items[i]); } } return results; }; var scrollToPlaylistPosition = function(vp){ var ppos = vp.getPlaylistPosition(); var el = vp.playlistContainer.find('>li').eq(ppos); var par = el.closest('.playlist_scrollarea'); par.scrollTop(el.offset().top-par.height()/2); } var updateVolumeState = function(){ if(noSoundMode){ if(noSoundMode == 'turn-on'){ clog("Sound is on, vsid="+vp.vsid); vp.setVolumeUnMute(); noSoundMode = false; }else{ clog("Sound is off, vsid="+vp.vsid); vp.setVolumeMute(); noSoundMode = 'turn-on'; } } } var playQueueUpdate = function(){ var playPosition = playQueue[playQueuePosition]; vp.playFromPlaylist(playPosition.video); scrollToPlaylistPosition(vp); playShouldStart = playPosition.start; playShouldStop = playPosition.stop; }; var playQueueAdvancePosition = function(){ clog("Advancing play position..."); playQueuePosition ++; while(playQueuePosition < playQueue.length && !playQueue[playQueuePosition].video){ playQueuePosition ++; } if(playQueuePosition < playQueue.length){ playQueueUpdate(); }else if(vp.getReplayCurrent()){ playQueuePosition = 0; playQueueUpdate(); vp.seekTo(playShouldStart); vp.playVideo(); }else{ vp.pauseVideo(); playShouldStop = null; playShouldStart = null; } }; function loadMoreVideos(playerId, vp, start, finish, callback){ var playlistInfo = playlists[playerId-1]; if(playlistInfo.loading >= finish) return; playlistInfo.loading = finish; $.ajax({ url: '/api/upge/cheetah-photo-search/query_videos2', dataType: 'json', data: { query: playlistInfo.query, orderby: playlistInfo.orderby, start: start, count: finish-start }, success: function(response){ var pl = vp.getPlaylist().slice(0); pl.push.apply(pl, response); vp.setPlaylist(pl); callback(); } }); } if(parts.length == 1 && matchDash(parts[0])){ var pl = vp.getActualPlaylist(); var vids = parseDash(parts[0]); parts = []; for(var i = 0; i < vids.length; i++){ playQueue.push({ 'video': pl[vids[i]-1], 'start': 0, 'stop': null }) } if(vids.length){ if(vids[vids.length-1]-1>=pl.length){ loadMoreVideos(playerId, vp, pl.length, vids[vids.length-1], function(){ if(fsonload){ activateTabArea(tab, parts[0]+'/fs'); }else{ activateTabArea(tab, parts[0]); } var pls = vp.getPlaylist(); vp.playFromPlaylist(pls[pls.length-1]); vp.playVideo(); scrollToPlaylistPosition(vp); }); return true; } } if(playQueue){ playQueueUpdate(); vp.playVideo(); parsed = true; playShouldStart = 0; } } if(previewMode){ var vids = []; var dur = 0; var pl = vp.getActualPlaylist(); area = parts[0]; if(parts.length == 1 && matchPosition(parts[0])){ vids = parseDash('1-'+pl.length); dur = parsePosition(parts[0]); parts = []; }else if(parts.length == 1 && matchDash(parts[0])){ vids = parseDash(parts[0]); dur = parsePosition("999:59"); parts = []; } if(parts.length == 2 && matchDash(parts[0]) && matchPosition(parts[1])){ vids = parseDash(parts[0]); dur = parsePosition(parts[1]); parts = []; } for(var i = 0; i < vids.length; i++){ playQueue.push({ 'video': pl[vids[i]-1], 'start': 0, 'stop': dur }) } if(playQueue){ playQueueUpdate(); vp.playVideo(); parsed = true; } } if(parts.length>1){ for(var i = 0; i < parts.length; i++){ var sel = findMatchingVideo(vp, parts[i]); if(sel){ playQueue.push({ 'video': sel, 'start': 0, 'stop': null }) } } if(playQueue){ playQueueUpdate(); vp.playVideo(); parsed = true; } }else if(area){ var sel = findMatchingVideo(vp, area); if(sel){ vp.playFromPlaylist(sel); playShouldStart = 0; parsed = true; } } if(fsonload || replayMode){ playShouldStart = 0; } if(document.location.search.match('at=|queue=')){ var opts = document.location.search.replace(/^\?/,'').split(/&/g); for(var o in opts){ if(opts[o].match(/^at=(\d+:)?(\d+:)?\d+$/)){ playShouldStart = parsePosition(opts[o].substr(3)) } if(opts[o].match(/^queue=/)){ playQueue = parseList(opts[o].substr(6)); if(playQueue){ playQueuePosition = 0; playQueueUpdate(); } } } } if(matchPosition(parts[1])){ playShouldStart = parsePosition(parts[1]); parsed = true; } if(matchAction(parts[1])){ var action = parseAction(vp, area+'/'+parts[1]); playShouldStart = action.start; playShouldStop = action.stop; parsed = true; } if(playShouldStart !== null && !playQueue.length){ playQueue.push({ video: vp.getCurrentVideo(), start: playShouldStart, stop: playShouldStop }); } if(playShouldStart != null){ setInterval(function(){ if(playShouldStop && vp.currentPlayer && vp.currentPlayer.getCurrentTime() > playShouldStop){ playShouldStop = null; if(vp.getCurrentVideo() == playQueue[playQueuePosition].video){ playQueueAdvancePosition(); }else{ playShouldStart = null; } } }, 500); vp.playerContainer.bind('videoplayer.player.statechange', function(e, state){ if(state == 'ended'){ // advance to the next video playQueueAdvancePosition(); } }); vp.playerContainer.bind('videoplayer.player.readychange', function(e, state){ if(state){ updateVolumeState(); if(playShouldStart !== null){ vp.seekTo(playShouldStart); playShouldStart = null; }else{ playShouldStop = null; // someone started other video, stop playing from playQueue } } if(fsonload) { triggerFullscreen(playerId); fsonload = false; } }); } } else if(tab.match(/^wiki\d+$/)){ if(firstTimeActivate){ load_wiki($('#'+tab), function(){ if(area){ var areaNode = $('#'+area); if(areaNode.length>0){ $('html, body').scrollTop(areaNode.offset().top + 10); return true; } } }); } } return parsed; }) window.activateTab = ensure(function(tab, area){ window.activeArea = null; if(tab == 'import_videos'){ if(area){ import_videos(area); }else{ start_import(); } return true; } if(tab == 'chat'){ update_chat_position($('.chat').eq(0)); window.activeArea = 'chat'; jQuery('.tabtrigger').offscreentabs('activateTab', 'chat'); return true; } if(tab in rev_names){ tab = rev_names[tab]; } if(tab.match(':')){ return false; } var sup = $('ul li a[id=#'+tab+']'); if(sup && sup.length>0){ window.activeArea = area; sup.first().click(); if(!window.activateTabArea(tab, area)){ window.activeArea = null; } window.activeArea = null; return true; }else{ var have_tabs = $('#playlist_menu li').length; if(tab.match(/^playlists?\d+$/)){ var to_add = +tab.substring(8).replace(/^s/,'')-have_tabs; if(to_add>0 && have_tabs){ add_more_videos(to_add); return true; } } } return false; }); window.currentPath = ensure(function(){ return window.lastHistory.replace(basepath, '').split('?')[0]; }); window.main_tab = window.main_tab || 'videos'; window.addHistory = ensure(function(path){ if(window.console && console.log) console.log("Adding to history: "+path); if(window.history && history.replaceState && document.location.hostname.match(/^(youtube\.)?(\w{2,3}\.)?wn\.com$/)){ if(path == main_tab || path == main_tab+'/' || path == '' || path == '/') { path = basepath; } else if( path.match('^'+main_tab+'/') ){ path = basepath + '/' + path.replace(main_tab+'/', '').replace('--','/'); } else { path = basepath + '/' + path.replace('--','/'); } if(document.location.search){ path += document.location.search; } if(window.lastHistory) { history.pushState(null, null, path); } else if(window.lastHistory != path){ history.replaceState(null, null, path); window.lastHistory = path; } } else{ path = path.replace('--','/'); if(path == main_tab || path == main_tab+'/' || path == '' || path == '/') { path = ''; } if(window.lastHistory != '/'+path){ window.location.hash = path? '/'+path : ''; window.lastHistory = '/'+path; } } }); $('.tabtrigger li a').live('click', ensure(function() { var tab = $(this).attr('id'); if(tab.substring(0,1) == '#'){ var name = tab.substring(1); if(name in menu_names){ name = menu_names[name][0]; } realTab = rev_names[name]; $('#'+realTab).show(); if(window.console && console.log) console.log("Triggering tab: "+name+(window.activeArea?" activeArea="+window.activeArea:'')); var path = name; if(window.activeArea){ path = path + '/' + window.activeArea; } if(tab.match(/#playlist\d+/) || tab.match(/#details\d+/)){ $('.multiple-playlists').show(); $('.related_playlist').show(); $('.longest_videos_playlist').show(); }else { $('.multiple-playlists').hide(); $('.related_playlist').hide(); $('.longest_videos_playlist').hide(); } // start the related script only when the tab is on screen showing if (tab.match(/related_sites/)) { if (mc) { mc.startCredits(); } } window.activeTab = realTab; addHistory(path); setTimeout(ensure(function(){ if(tab.match(/language--/)){ $('.tabtrigger').offscreentabs('activateTab', 'language'); } if(tab.match(/weather/)) { $('.tabtrigger').offscreentabs('activateTab', 'weather'); loadContinent(); } updateMenus(tab); updateHeight(); }), 10); } return false; })); }); -->

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Thursday, 16 January 2025

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Prior probability

In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable.

Bayes' theorem calculates the renormalized pointwise product of the prior and the likelihood function, to produce the posterior probability distribution, which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given the data.

Similarly, the prior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the unconditional probability that is assigned before any relevant evidence is taken into account.

A prior can be the purely subjective assessment of an experienced expert. It can also be chosen according to some principle, such as the Jeffreys prior or Bernardo's reference prior. When a family of conjugate priors exists, choosing a prior from that family simplifies calculation of the posterior distribution.

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'); } else { var query = elem.find('.keywords').html(); $.ajax({ context: elem, url: 'https://wn.com/api/upge/cheetah-search-adv/video', cache: true, data: { 'query': query }, dataType: 'jsonp', success: function(text) { if (text.length > 0) { video_id = text[0].id; elem.find('.player').html('

'); } } }); } } var stopAllYouTubeVideos = function() { var iframes = document.querySelectorAll('iframe'); Array.prototype.forEach.call(iframes, function(iframe) { iframe.contentWindow.postMessage(JSON.stringify({ event: 'command', func: 'pauseVideo' }), '*'); }); } jQuery(function() { jQuery(".playVideo").live("click", function() { if(!$(this).hasClass("played")){ stopAllYouTubeVideos(); var elem = $(this); setTimeout(function(){ mouseOverMe(elem); }, 1000); } }); jQuery(".description_box .expandContent").live("click", function() { elem = $(this).parent().parent().parent().find('.descContent'); if(elem.height() > 51) { elem.css('height', '44px'); $(this).html('Show More '); }else{ elem.css('height', 'auto'); $(this).html('Hide '); } }); jQuery('.interview-play-off').click(function() { $(".interview-play-off").hide(); $(".interview-play").show(); $(".videoplayer-control-pause").click(); }); jQuery(".video-desc .show_author_videos").live("click", function() { query = $(this).attr('title'); container = $(this).parent().parent().parent().find('.video-author-thumbs'); $(this).parent().parent().parent().find('.video-author-thumbs').css('height', '220px'); jQuery.ajax({ url: '/api/upge/cheetah-photo-search/videoresults', data: {'query': query}, success: function(text) { if(!text) { text = i18n("No results"); } container.html(jQuery(text)); } }); }); }); // -->

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