-
Immunology 101
With Professor Robert Clancy, thanks as always.
published: 14 Jan 2023
-
China, mass infections
China, the first and the last, alpha and omega of the covid pandemic with omicron
Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December
Cases + 5,000
December, 248 million infections, (18%)
Deaths, + 3 = 5,253
When is a covid death a covid death?
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/202212/a9510969ad85461297016f6ad1c87770.shtml
Prof Wang Guiqiang, National Health Commission
Only fatalities caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure
Not deaths caused by cardiovascular, cerebrovascular diseases, blood clots, sepsis
the main cause of death from infection with Omicron is the underlying diseases
UK Department of Health
Covid pre-departure, 48 hours, as from 5th January
(Spain, the US, Italy, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Japan)
Health Security Agency, surveillance of arrivals fro...
published: 03 Jan 2023
-
My yellow card report
Yellow card scheme, Don’t wait for someone else to report it
https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/yellow-card-please-help-to-reverse-the-decline-in-reporting-of-suspected-adverse-drug-reactions
It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported.
Yellow card government site, just a click away
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting
published: 19 Dec 2022
-
Full analysis, vaccines and accidents
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated,...
published: 17 Dec 2022
-
Great talk with GB News and Bev Turner
Thank you GB News and Bev, you made me feel most welcome. Great series of questions. So good to talk face to face rather than via the internet.
published: 15 Nov 2022
-
Covid vaccine and road accidents
Are people vaccinated against covid more protected from road accidents .... or not.
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (...
published: 17 Dec 2022
35:17
Immunology 101
With Professor Robert Clancy, thanks as always.
With Professor Robert Clancy, thanks as always.
https://wn.com/Immunology_101
With Professor Robert Clancy, thanks as always.
- published: 14 Jan 2023
- views: 52734
16:44
China, mass infections
China, the first and the last, alpha and omega of the covid pandemic with omicron
Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December
Cases + 5,000
December, 248...
China, the first and the last, alpha and omega of the covid pandemic with omicron
Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December
Cases + 5,000
December, 248 million infections, (18%)
Deaths, + 3 = 5,253
When is a covid death a covid death?
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/202212/a9510969ad85461297016f6ad1c87770.shtml
Prof Wang Guiqiang, National Health Commission
Only fatalities caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure
Not deaths caused by cardiovascular, cerebrovascular diseases, blood clots, sepsis
the main cause of death from infection with Omicron is the underlying diseases
UK Department of Health
Covid pre-departure, 48 hours, as from 5th January
(Spain, the US, Italy, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Japan)
Health Security Agency, surveillance of arrivals from 8th January
Fitter variants have always got through in the past
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Professor Andrew Pollard
Imposition of travel curbs was unlikely to stop variants reaching the UK
Health Secretary Steve Barclay
to gain rapid insight into potential new variants circulating in China
The best defence against the virus, however, remains the vaccine
Direct from China
I can confirm a lot of what you said in your broadcast
Many being treated at home due to very busy hospitals
Crematoriums are backed up by about two weeks in many cities
More than 60% of my work and social contacts, young and old have had COVID in the last three weeks.
All has symptoms lasting 7 to 10 days
Last round of vaccinations in some areas 6 to 12 months ago
Body aches/headache - usually one of the first symptoms
Most people have a fever lasting 2-5 days
Cough - dry with no phlegm – (Lasting up to two weeks)
Running nose and congestion lasting about 5-7 days
Sore throat lasting 5-7 days
Some people suffering from diarrhea
(Chinese and other home remedies)
Most major symptoms are gone within 5-7 days
Tiredness/fatigue/dizziness lasting another 5-7 days.
Global times, official Chinese release
Most infections symptomatic
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283018.shtml
About 1.75% of infections asymptomatic
N = 16,000
Attack rate
70% of Shanghai 70 % (25m)
Southwest China, Sichuan Province, more than 60%
South China, Hainan Province, more than 50%
Ordos, Inner Mongolia, 60%
N = 16,000
Fever, 79%
Headache, 69%
Cough, 65%
Muscle aches, 62%
Asymptomatic, 1.75%
Numbers seen
Seen in hospital clinics, 0.19%
Seen online, 0.78%
Took their own meds, 85%
Did not see a doctor or take meds, 85%
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-state-media-plays-down-severity-covid-wave-before-who-meeting-2023-01-03/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=010323
People's Daily, CCP official newspaper
Tong Zhaohui, vice president of the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital
Illness caused by the virus, relatively mild for most people
Severe and critical illnesses account for 3% to 4% of infected patients currently admitted to designated hospitals in Beijing
Kang Yan, West China Tianfu Hospital of Sichuan University
In the past three weeks, a total of 46 patients had been admitted to intensive care units,
about 1% of symptomatic infections.
Emergencies area, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai
Packed
Beds in the corridor
WHO asking for detailed information, hospitalizations, deaths, vaccinations, variants.
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore
but the problem is China’s transparency issue is always there
Lunar New Year holiday
Starts 22nd January
Infections will have already peaked in many places
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-admits-its-covid-deaths-are-huge-and-70-of-shanghais-25m-residents-have-been-infected/ar-AA15UKuG
Health officials
Seeing an increase 'in the critical cases or the fatalities'
https://wn.com/China,_Mass_Infections
China, the first and the last, alpha and omega of the covid pandemic with omicron
Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December
Cases + 5,000
December, 248 million infections, (18%)
Deaths, + 3 = 5,253
When is a covid death a covid death?
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/202212/a9510969ad85461297016f6ad1c87770.shtml
Prof Wang Guiqiang, National Health Commission
Only fatalities caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure
Not deaths caused by cardiovascular, cerebrovascular diseases, blood clots, sepsis
the main cause of death from infection with Omicron is the underlying diseases
UK Department of Health
Covid pre-departure, 48 hours, as from 5th January
(Spain, the US, Italy, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Japan)
Health Security Agency, surveillance of arrivals from 8th January
Fitter variants have always got through in the past
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Professor Andrew Pollard
Imposition of travel curbs was unlikely to stop variants reaching the UK
Health Secretary Steve Barclay
to gain rapid insight into potential new variants circulating in China
The best defence against the virus, however, remains the vaccine
Direct from China
I can confirm a lot of what you said in your broadcast
Many being treated at home due to very busy hospitals
Crematoriums are backed up by about two weeks in many cities
More than 60% of my work and social contacts, young and old have had COVID in the last three weeks.
All has symptoms lasting 7 to 10 days
Last round of vaccinations in some areas 6 to 12 months ago
Body aches/headache - usually one of the first symptoms
Most people have a fever lasting 2-5 days
Cough - dry with no phlegm – (Lasting up to two weeks)
Running nose and congestion lasting about 5-7 days
Sore throat lasting 5-7 days
Some people suffering from diarrhea
(Chinese and other home remedies)
Most major symptoms are gone within 5-7 days
Tiredness/fatigue/dizziness lasting another 5-7 days.
Global times, official Chinese release
Most infections symptomatic
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283018.shtml
About 1.75% of infections asymptomatic
N = 16,000
Attack rate
70% of Shanghai 70 % (25m)
Southwest China, Sichuan Province, more than 60%
South China, Hainan Province, more than 50%
Ordos, Inner Mongolia, 60%
N = 16,000
Fever, 79%
Headache, 69%
Cough, 65%
Muscle aches, 62%
Asymptomatic, 1.75%
Numbers seen
Seen in hospital clinics, 0.19%
Seen online, 0.78%
Took their own meds, 85%
Did not see a doctor or take meds, 85%
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-state-media-plays-down-severity-covid-wave-before-who-meeting-2023-01-03/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=010323
People's Daily, CCP official newspaper
Tong Zhaohui, vice president of the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital
Illness caused by the virus, relatively mild for most people
Severe and critical illnesses account for 3% to 4% of infected patients currently admitted to designated hospitals in Beijing
Kang Yan, West China Tianfu Hospital of Sichuan University
In the past three weeks, a total of 46 patients had been admitted to intensive care units,
about 1% of symptomatic infections.
Emergencies area, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai
Packed
Beds in the corridor
WHO asking for detailed information, hospitalizations, deaths, vaccinations, variants.
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore
but the problem is China’s transparency issue is always there
Lunar New Year holiday
Starts 22nd January
Infections will have already peaked in many places
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-admits-its-covid-deaths-are-huge-and-70-of-shanghais-25m-residents-have-been-infected/ar-AA15UKuG
Health officials
Seeing an increase 'in the critical cases or the fatalities'
- published: 03 Jan 2023
- views: 780249
11:27
My yellow card report
Yellow card scheme, Don’t wait for someone else to report it
https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/yellow-card-please-help-to-reverse-the-decline-in-reporting-...
Yellow card scheme, Don’t wait for someone else to report it
https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/yellow-card-please-help-to-reverse-the-decline-in-reporting-of-suspected-adverse-drug-reactions
It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported.
Yellow card government site, just a click away
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting
https://wn.com/My_Yellow_Card_Report
Yellow card scheme, Don’t wait for someone else to report it
https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/yellow-card-please-help-to-reverse-the-decline-in-reporting-of-suspected-adverse-drug-reactions
It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported.
Yellow card government site, just a click away
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting
- published: 19 Dec 2022
- views: 413069
30:18
Full analysis, vaccines and accidents
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vac...
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated, 84%
Unvaccinated individuals
1,682 traffic crashes (25%)
Equal to a 72% increased relative
Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%
(P less than 0.001)
What about
Socioeconomic status
Alcohol
Sleep apnea
Diabetes
Depression
Dementia
Hypertension
Cancer
Covid infection
Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment
Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%
(P less than 0.001)
The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity
Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines
Conclusions
These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.
An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.
Factors
Distrust of government
Belief in freedom
Misconceptions of everyday risks
Faith in natural protection
Antipathy toward regulation
Chronic poverty
Exposure to misinformation
Political identity
Negative past experiences
Limited health literacy
Social networks, misgivings around public health guidelines
Primary care physicians who wish to help patients avoid becoming traffic statistics,
could take the opportunity to stress standard safety reminders such as wearing a seatbelt, obeying speed limits, and never driving drunk
Paramedics, should be aware that unvaccinated patients are overrepresented in the aftermath of a traffic crash.
Driver insurance policies in the future
Together, the findings suggest that unvaccinated adults need to be careful indoors with other people and outside with surrounding traffic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s
But
Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465
Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf
Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021
‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates
(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)
Over 65s do not commute
So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident
Invalid title
Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)
Total = 6,682
Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)
(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)
People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination
Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.
So how many casualties were misclassified?
If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,
Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes
Deaths at Scene
Excluded
42 deaths at scene
8 deaths were included
(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)
Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored
This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident
What about people not in the system
Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481
Unvaccinated typically underestimated
Therefore
Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated
Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated
E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents
Or indeed, anything else
Forest plot
In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)
Source data not available to public
The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).
https://wn.com/Full_Analysis,_Vaccines_And_Accidents
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated, 84%
Unvaccinated individuals
1,682 traffic crashes (25%)
Equal to a 72% increased relative
Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%
(P less than 0.001)
What about
Socioeconomic status
Alcohol
Sleep apnea
Diabetes
Depression
Dementia
Hypertension
Cancer
Covid infection
Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment
Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%
(P less than 0.001)
The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity
Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines
Conclusions
These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.
An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.
Factors
Distrust of government
Belief in freedom
Misconceptions of everyday risks
Faith in natural protection
Antipathy toward regulation
Chronic poverty
Exposure to misinformation
Political identity
Negative past experiences
Limited health literacy
Social networks, misgivings around public health guidelines
Primary care physicians who wish to help patients avoid becoming traffic statistics,
could take the opportunity to stress standard safety reminders such as wearing a seatbelt, obeying speed limits, and never driving drunk
Paramedics, should be aware that unvaccinated patients are overrepresented in the aftermath of a traffic crash.
Driver insurance policies in the future
Together, the findings suggest that unvaccinated adults need to be careful indoors with other people and outside with surrounding traffic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s
But
Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465
Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf
Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021
‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates
(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)
Over 65s do not commute
So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident
Invalid title
Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)
Total = 6,682
Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)
(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)
People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination
Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.
So how many casualties were misclassified?
If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,
Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes
Deaths at Scene
Excluded
42 deaths at scene
8 deaths were included
(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)
Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored
This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident
What about people not in the system
Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481
Unvaccinated typically underestimated
Therefore
Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated
Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated
E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents
Or indeed, anything else
Forest plot
In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)
Source data not available to public
The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).
- published: 17 Dec 2022
- views: 324388
10:58
Great talk with GB News and Bev Turner
Thank you GB News and Bev, you made me feel most welcome. Great series of questions. So good to talk face to face rather than via the internet.
Thank you GB News and Bev, you made me feel most welcome. Great series of questions. So good to talk face to face rather than via the internet.
https://wn.com/Great_Talk_With_GB_News_And_Bev_Turner
Thank you GB News and Bev, you made me feel most welcome. Great series of questions. So good to talk face to face rather than via the internet.
- published: 15 Nov 2022
- views: 271366
10:36
Covid vaccine and road accidents
Are people vaccinated against covid more protected from road accidents .... or not.
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.co...
Are people vaccinated against covid more protected from road accidents .... or not.
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated, 84%
Unvaccinated individuals
1,682 traffic crashes (25%)
Equal to a 72% increased relative
Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%
(P less than 0.001)
What about
Socioeconomic status
Alcohol
Sleep apnea
Diabetes
Depression
Dementia
Hypertension
Cancer
Covid infection
Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment
Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%
(P less than 0.001)
The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity
Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines
Conclusions
These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.
An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.
Factors
Distrust of government
Belief in freedom
Misconceptions of everyday risks
Faith in natural protection
Antipathy toward regulation
Chronic poverty
Exposure to misinformation
Political identity
Negative past experiences
Limited health literacy
Social networks, misgivings around public health guidelines
Primary care physicians who wish to help patients avoid becoming traffic statistics,
could take the opportunity to stress standard safety reminders such as wearing a seatbelt, obeying speed limits, and never driving drunk
Paramedics, should be aware that unvaccinated patients are overrepresented in the aftermath of a traffic crash.
Driver insurance policies in the future
Together, the findings suggest that unvaccinated adults need to be careful indoors with other people and outside with surrounding traffic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s
But
Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465
Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf
Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021
‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates
(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)
Over 65s do not commute
So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident
Invalid title
Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)
Total = 6,682
Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)
(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)
People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination
Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.
So how many casualties were misclassified?
If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,
Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes
Deaths at Scene
Excluded
42 deaths at scene
8 deaths were included
(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)
Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored
This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident
What about people not in the system
Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481
Unvaccinated typically underestimated
Therefore
Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated
Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated
E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents
Or indeed, anything else
Forest plot
In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)
Source data not available to public
The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).
https://wn.com/Covid_Vaccine_And_Road_Accidents
Are people vaccinated against covid more protected from road accidents .... or not.
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated, 84%
Unvaccinated individuals
1,682 traffic crashes (25%)
Equal to a 72% increased relative
Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%
(P less than 0.001)
What about
Socioeconomic status
Alcohol
Sleep apnea
Diabetes
Depression
Dementia
Hypertension
Cancer
Covid infection
Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment
Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%
(P less than 0.001)
The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity
Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines
Conclusions
These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.
An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.
Factors
Distrust of government
Belief in freedom
Misconceptions of everyday risks
Faith in natural protection
Antipathy toward regulation
Chronic poverty
Exposure to misinformation
Political identity
Negative past experiences
Limited health literacy
Social networks, misgivings around public health guidelines
Primary care physicians who wish to help patients avoid becoming traffic statistics,
could take the opportunity to stress standard safety reminders such as wearing a seatbelt, obeying speed limits, and never driving drunk
Paramedics, should be aware that unvaccinated patients are overrepresented in the aftermath of a traffic crash.
Driver insurance policies in the future
Together, the findings suggest that unvaccinated adults need to be careful indoors with other people and outside with surrounding traffic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s
But
Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465
Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf
Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021
‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates
(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)
Over 65s do not commute
So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident
Invalid title
Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)
Total = 6,682
Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)
(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)
People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination
Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.
So how many casualties were misclassified?
If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,
Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes
Deaths at Scene
Excluded
42 deaths at scene
8 deaths were included
(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)
Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored
This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident
What about people not in the system
Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481
Unvaccinated typically underestimated
Therefore
Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated
Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated
E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents
Or indeed, anything else
Forest plot
In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)
Source data not available to public
The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).
- published: 17 Dec 2022
- views: 542785