Biden’s Window for Israeli-Saudi Deal Closes Before Election

Jul 11, 2024 11:40 am | News, Ticker, Virtual Jerusalem

Adding to the Woes of the Addled President-in-Name-Only is the disappearance of a game-changing Nobel Peace Prize Moment. Congressional Calendar Constraints and Gaza Truce Stall Progress and make a Pact Impossible Before Election Day

Things are not exactly going right for Old Joe.

The opportunity for President Joe Biden’s administration to broker a much-sought normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia before the November presidential election has closed, according to sources familiar with the matter.

“A deal isn’t possible without a ceasefire first being reached in Gaza,” emphasized a White House official, echoing sentiments expressed by top US and Saudi officials. They stressed that Riyadh cannot effectively promote a normalization agreement domestically or regionally while the Israel-Hamas conflict persists.

Despite efforts to advance the normalization alongside a US defense pact with Saudi Arabia, which requires Senate approval, congressional sources indicated that time is now a critical barrier. The Senate, with less than four weeks of session left before a recess until the election, faces logistical hurdles in conducting necessary hearings.

“Even if Biden loses the election, finalizing a deal in the lame-duck period between November and January would be politically complex,” added the White House official.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a notable supporter of potential Democratic-brokered agreements, previously suggested a deadline of June for finalizing a normalization deal, underscoring the timing pressures now confronting the administration.

While optimistic tones persist within some circles, a consensus appears to have emerged among Israeli officials and congressional sources alike that the pre-election window for a normalization deal has indeed closed.

The pathway to a potential Israeli-Saudi normalization deal was always fraught with challenges, primarily due to Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a clear framework toward a Palestinian state—a condition consistently rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Biden administration aimed to concurrently advance the normalization alongside its defense pact negotiations with Saudi Arabia, crucially requiring Senate ratification.

Sources close to Congress emphasized the limited remaining legislative calendar, pointing out that there are fewer than four weeks left in session before the Senate recesses until late September, with just two working days scheduled in August. This timeline leaves insufficient room for the Senate to conduct the necessary hearings and deliberations required for approving such a significant pact.

“The politics were already going to be extremely difficult, given Republicans’ reluctance to grant Biden achievements in an election year and the reservations among many Democrats toward endorsing Israeli and Saudi leadership,” noted a senior Republican Senate aide.

In assessing the potential for a post-election agreement, the administration faces heightened complexities. The possibility of finalizing a deal during the lame-duck period, should Biden lose, is acknowledged but deemed politically precarious by analysts and insiders alike.

Senator Lindsey Graham, who has expressed openness to supporting a deal brokered by a Democratic administration, highlighted earlier in the year that the window for substantial progress likely closed around June, aligning with current assessments from Washington insiders.

Despite differing opinions on the feasibility of a last-minute breakthrough, both Israeli officials and congressional sources now converge on the view that the window for achieving a normalization deal before the November election has definitively shut. This consensus reflects broader concerns over the practical constraints of time and the intricate political dynamics at play both domestically and internationally.

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