China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
POLITICS
Xi’s Diplomatic No-shows Hint at Domestic Political Woes
Xi Jinping’s political problems will likely compound as more signs of the Chinese economy tanking emerge later this year and social instability rises.
Blinken’s China Trip Yields Little Improvement in Sino-US Relations
Despite appearances, Secretary Blinken’s visit to China has not done much to thaw Sino-U.S. relations or change its current dynamics.
Xi Tackles Regime Crises With Propaganda, Purges, and ‘Multilateralism’
Xi Jinping has turned to propaganda, purges, and a softened diplomatic approach to tackle the “various risks, challenges, and difficult problems” facing the regime.
Early Analysis of Jiang Zemin’s Death and Implications for CCP Factional Struggle
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.
Analyzing Hu Jintao’s Early Exit From the 20th Party Congress Closing Ceremony
Hu almost certainly knew the result of the personnel reshuffle beforehand, and is unlikely to have suddenly found reason to be upset with Xi over the reshuffle.
How We Fared: Reviewing Our 20th Party Congress Forecast
We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model.
20th Party Congress Forecast: Five Scenarios for the Politburo and its Standing Committee
The report presents several possible personnel arrangements for the Politburo and its Standing Committee, as well as list personnel who could serve on the 20th Central Committee and Central Military Commission.
China’s Banking Trouble Points to Financial Contagion, Declining Economy
Bank trouble in China could in turn worsen social and economic instability in China to the detriment of Xi Jinping and the CCP.
Shanghai ‘Zero-COVID’ Shutdown Threatens Economic Slowdown, Political Trouble
The Shanghai lockdown and those in other areas are starting to weigh on the Chinese economy.