Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
Donald Trump was met with skepticism when he indicated that he would get tough on China during the 2016 presidential campaign. By the end of his first term, however, Trump had launched a trade war in 2018, targeted Chinese technology companies like Huawei and ZTE over security concerns, sanctioned Chinese officials over human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and began indirect ideological confrontation with the Chinese Communist Party.
Having proven his bona fides, many observers are expecting president-elect Trump to adopt an aggressive approach to China during his second term. Given his previous record, what he has said on the campaign trail, and his picks for top foreign policy positions, we believe that Trump views Communist China as the biggest strategic threat to the United States and will likely continue and expand upon his tough approach to the People’s Republic of China.
‘Trump 2.0’
Trump has expressed his love of tariffs in numerous speeches and interviews. Tariffs “is the most beautiful word. This country can become rich with the use, the proper use of tariffs,” Trump said on Joe Rogan’s podcast aired on Oct. 26.
The Washington Post reported on Jan. 27 that Trump had publicly endorsed revoking China’s most-favored-nation trading status and discussed privately with advisers on the possibility of imposing a flat 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports.
The PRC would suffer a heavy blow should Trump raise steep tariffs on China. UBS economists estimated that new tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese imports to the U.S. would cut 2.5 percentage points from China’s GDP, or half the official growth rate and a significant portion of the actual growth rate, in the following year as China’s exports, investment, and consumption are affected. The UBS economists also noted that there is a risk that other countries could raise tariffs on Chinese imports as well.
Tech billionaire Peter Thiel told journalist Bari Weiss in a podcast aired on Nov. 14 that Trump imposing 60 percent tariffs across the board on Chinese imports “probably would be very, very bad for Chinese companies and China. It would only be mildly bad for U.S. consumers because an awful lot of stuff would get shifted away from China.”
Thiel added, “Maybe our trade deficit doesn’t go down, but we at least aren’t helping our geopolitical rival … If you shift manufacturing from China to Vietnam, that hurts China. It is maybe mildly negative for American consumers. It’s really good for Vietnam. But in this geopolitical calculus, that seems very much in the American interest.”
Tariffs aside, Trump could try to hold the CCP accountable for the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump had expressed his annoyance at the “China virus” affecting his re-election campaign in 2020 on multiple occasions while campaigning and giving interviews. After returning to the White House, Trump could potentially call for fresh investigations into the origins of COVID-19 and use the research that is already out there to put pressure on Beijing and gain leverage in future negotiations.
Support Taiwan, but with guardrails
The second Trump administration is likely to address the CCP’s threat to U.S. national security, curb the PRC’s access to advanced technologies, take measures to deter the PLA from invading Taiwan, and condemn human rights abuses in China.
Should the Trump administration engage in ideological confrontation with the CCP, it will likely be more low-key and indirect as compared to the first term. For example, the administration could signal that it respects the political systems of other countries and will not push for regime change in authoritarian nations, as opposed to the Biden administration’s “democracy versus autocracy” framework. The second Trump administration could also support Taiwan within the limits of America’s “one-China policy and not promote “Taiwan independence.”
The second Trump administration will likely veer away from unnecessary provocations with the PRC that might compel the CCP to aggression. Donald Trump is opposed to U.S. military interventionism and war in general, as are several of his political allies whom he has nominated to serve in his administration like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Elon Musk.
Not wanting to provoke conflict with the PRC, however, does not mean that the second Trump administration will be dovish towards China. For one, there is broad consensus in the U.S. and abroad about confronting the CCP threat and deterring the PLA from invading Taiwan and other acts of aggression. The Trump administration is likely to resort to the “peace through strength” approach and other novel measures in getting tough on Communist China without being unduly provocative.
Personnel selection and China
Many of Trump’s personnel picks, both official and unofficial, reflect his view of China as America’s top geopolitical challenge. Trump has selected Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State, Mike Waltz as his national security adviser, and Pete Hegseth as defense secretary.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio is known for being an anti-communist and for taking a tough line on the PRC. In the Senate, Rubio called out the communist regime over its many human rights abuses, including in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the persecution of Falun Gong, and sponsored legislation pertaining to those issues. Rubio also introduced bills to counter the CCP threat and influence, and was sanctioned twice by the PRC in retaliation for U.S. measures against Chinese and Hong Kong officials over Hong Kong and Xinjiang matters.
Rubio’s office released a report on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2023. And in August 2024, Rubio wrote on X, “Communist China is not, and will never be, a friend to democratic nations. The International Community must continue to stand with Taiwan as they defend their sovereignty and freedom.”
Michael Waltz, a three-term Republican congressman from east-central Florida and former Green Beret, has been hawkish on China. On Nov. 2, 2024, Waltz argued in an essay co-written with Georgetown University professor Matthew Kroenig for The Economist that a second Trump administration should “act urgently to bring the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to a swift conclusion, and finally focus strategic attention where it should be: countering the greater threat from the Chinese Communist Party.”
Pete Hegseth, a Fox News political commentator and a military veteran, has noted in recent appearances that the PRC is the primary strategic concern for the U.S. and that Beijing was “specifically dedicated to defeating the United States of America.” He added, “They have a full spectrum long-term view of not just regional but global domination.”
Ball in Xi’s court
In his final meeting with President Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said he would work with the Trump administration to “maintain communication, expand cooperation, and manage differences.”
Faced with a rapidly deteriorating economy at home and a myriad of other crises, Xi has an interest in playing ball with Trump and getting on his good side. However, Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
