A brief description of South Africa's present-day climate (2025)

South African risk and vulnerability atlas

2010

Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report

South African Journal of Science

is wrestling with increasing climate change impacts and how to respond. The 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report synthesises the latest evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and what this means for climate-resilient development. In this commentary, South African authors on the Report reflect on its key findings and the implications for the country. The commentary highlights challenges and opportunities for cities, the food-water-energy-nature nexus, knowledge and capacity strengthening (which includes climate services, climate change literacy, and indigenous and local knowledge), climate finance, equity, justice and social protection, and climate-resilient development pathways. The piece closes with a reflection on research gaps requiring attention and the importance of urgently ramping up climate action to secure a liveable future for all South Africans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, published about every 7 years, present policyrelevant assessments of the causes and consequences of climate change, and future options for preventing and adapting to climate change. South Africa is well represented in the IPCC process, with Dr Debra Roberts as Working Group II (WGII) co-chair and numerous South African lead and contributing authors. In this Invited Commentary, seven South African authors of the recent Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (henceforth the 'WGII report') discuss key findings on climate risk and opportunities for climate-resilient development in South Africa, as identified in this report. The commentary draws primarily on Chapter 9 ('Africa') 1 , which 'presents the clearest and most comprehensive review of [climate change assessment issues on] the continent ever contained in an IPCC report' 2. It also draws on Chapter 6 ('Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure') and two synthesis chapters: 16 ('Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions') and 17 ('Decision-making Options for Managing Risks').

National Climate Change Conference in South Africa

African Journal of Ecology, 2005

A national climate change conference was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, on 17-20 October 2005, bringing together scientists, policy makers and a wide range of different stakeholders from non-governmental organisations to business and energy sector representatives. The meeting heard presentations detailing evidence for human-induced climate change and its present and projected effects on southern Africa and elsewhere. Many of the talks explored social and economic impacts on both rural livelihoods and cities. Discussions were held on climate change mitigation, vulnerability and adaptation, culminating in several forward thinking policy commitments and the launch of a Designated National Authority for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in South Africa. The CDM arises from Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol and allows greenhouse gas emissions from developed countries to be 'traded' in exchange for support to environmentally sustainable emission-reducing projects in developing countries. The first CDM project on the African continent is the Kuyasa low-cost urban housing energy upgrade project in the city of Cape Town which focuses on renewable energy and energy-efficiency by fitting solar water heaters, insulated ceilings and low energy light bulbs in existing low cost houses (see http://www.southsouthnorth.org/ for more information).

Strengthening the knowledge-policy interface through co-production of a climate adaptation plan: leveraging opportunities in Bergrivier Municipality, South Africa

Environment and Urbanization, 2016

Despite the growth of adaptation plans and action by municipalities, there are limited examples of opportunities for effectively mainstreaming climate adaptation into policy and practice in local government. This paper uses the experiment of co-producing an adaptation plan for a small municipality in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, to illustrate how opportunities were leveraged. The findings suggest that a shift from strengthening the science–policy interface to the knowledge–policy interface might be more appropriate in the context of adaptation planning that requires an understanding of the local context as well as of global science. In order to align adaptation plans with developmental priorities and to secure support from actors at multiple levels, the integration of multiple knowledge forms, including climate science, should be prioritized. Such a task could be strengthened if co-production is prioritized. Building on these opportunities is critical to scaling up adapt...

Managing Climate Change: A Report on South Africa

Risks of adverse impacts from climate change in Southern Africa

remain vested in the CSIR. This document is issued for the sole purpose for which it is supplied. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the express written permission of the CSIR. It may also not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover than that in which it is published. Chapter 2: Seasonal forecasts 23 Communicating current climate variability in southern Africa 2.1. Introduction 23 2.2. Why seasonal forecasting is possible 23 2.3. The evolution of the science of seasonal forecasting in southern Africa 24 2.4. Types of products 25 2.5. Usability 25 2.6. The way forward for climate variability modelling 25 Chapter 3: Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Determining future climate � Global climate models � Determining regional climate change � Understanding risk and uncertainty 3.3. Projected climate change of southern Africa � Projections based on GCMs Rainfall Temperature Winds � Projections based on statistical downscaling of GCMs Rainfall Temperature � Projections based on dynamical downscaling of GCMs Rainfall Temperature � Projected changes in extreme weather events over southern Africa 3.4. Reconciling observed and expected future climate changes 3.5. Summary and key messages Chapter 4: Risks of adverse impacts from climate change in southern Africa 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Determining the levels of risk from climate change 4.3. Sectoral impacts (a biophysical vulnerability analysis) � Forestry � Crop and livestock production Table of Contents 2 Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa Table of Contents (continued) � Case study: A changing climate for cattle farming in the SADC region 55 (Emma Archer van Garderen) � Ecosystems and biodiversity 56 � Coasts 56 � Case study: Coastal risk in Dar es Salaam (Katharine Vincent) 59 � Human settlements � Water resources 60 � Human health 60 4.4. Adaptive capacity (social vulnerability) to climate change 62 � Case study: Social vulnerability to climate change in uMkhanyakude district, 62 KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (Alison Misselhorn) � Case study: Social vulnerability to climate change in rural Lesotho (Jarred Bell) 63 4.5. Conclusion 64 Chapter 5: Dealing with risk 65 5.1. Introduction 65 5.2. Mitigation 65 � Case study: Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest 67 degradation (Catherine Traynor) � Case study: Mbirikani carbon project, Kenya (Kathleen Fitzgerald) 68 � Case study: Powering the possibility of a greener Earth-69 Exxaro Resources (Lizette Kohn) � Case study: Air quality and mitigation in Ethekwini Municipality, 70 South Africa (Tirusha Thambiran) 5.3. Adaptation 71 � Case study: Lessons learned for enhancing the adaptive capacity of forest 73 communities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Youssoufa Bele) � Case study: Para-ecologists can support adaptation to climate change 74 (Ute Schmiedel) 5.4. Disaster risk reduction 75 5.5. Policy development-what determines a good strategy in responding to climate change? 75 � Case study: Adapting to climate change in Namibia-from scientific data 76 to information for decision-making (Raúl Iván Alfaro Pelico) � Case study: Transboundary water security-water scarcity in the Limpopo 77

Climate risk and vulnerability: a handbook for Southern Africa

remain vested in the CSIR. This document is issued for the sole purpose for which it is supplied. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the express written permission of the CSIR. It may also not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover than that in which it is published. Chapter 2: Seasonal forecasts 23 Communicating current climate variability in southern Africa 2.1. Introduction 23 2.2. Why seasonal forecasting is possible 23 2.3. The evolution of the science of seasonal forecasting in southern Africa 24 2.4. Types of products 25 2.5. Usability 25 2.6. The way forward for climate variability modelling 25 Chapter 3: Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Determining future climate � Global climate models � Determining regional climate change � Understanding risk and uncertainty 3.3. Projected climate change of southern Africa � Projections based on GCMs Rainfall Temperature Winds � Projections based on statistical downscaling of GCMs Rainfall Temperature � Projections based on dynamical downscaling of GCMs Rainfall Temperature � Projected changes in extreme weather events over southern Africa 3.4. Reconciling observed and expected future climate changes 3.5. Summary and key messages Chapter 4: Risks of adverse impacts from climate change in southern Africa 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Determining the levels of risk from climate change 4.3. Sectoral impacts (a biophysical vulnerability analysis) � Forestry � Crop and livestock production Table of Contents 2 Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa Table of Contents (continued) � Case study: A changing climate for cattle farming in the SADC region 55 (Emma Archer van Garderen) � Ecosystems and biodiversity 56 � Coasts 56 � Case study: Coastal risk in Dar es Salaam (Katharine Vincent) 59 � Human settlements 59 � Water resources 60 � Human health 60 4.4. Adaptive capacity (social vulnerability) to climate change 62 � Case study: Social vulnerability to climate change in uMkhanyakude district, 62 KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (Alison Misselhorn) � Case study: Social vulnerability to climate change in rural Lesotho (Jarred Bell) 63 4.5. Conclusion 64 Chapter 5: Dealing with risk 65 5.1. Introduction 65 5.2. Mitigation 65 � Case study: Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest 67 degradation (Catherine Traynor) � Case study: Mbirikani carbon project, Kenya (Kathleen Fitzgerald) 68 � Case study: Powering the possibility of a greener Earth-69 Exxaro Resources (Lizette Kohn) � Case study: Air quality and mitigation in Ethekwini Municipality, 70 South Africa (Tirusha Thambiran) 5.3. Adaptation 71 � Case study: Lessons learned for enhancing the adaptive capacity of forest 73 communities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Youssoufa Bele) � Case study: Para-ecologists can support adaptation to climate change 74 (Ute Schmiedel) 5.4. Disaster risk reduction 75 5.5. Policy development-what determines a good strategy in responding to climate change? 75 � Case study: Adapting to climate change in Namibia-from scientific data 76 to information for decision-making (Raúl Iván Alfaro Pelico) � Case study: Transboundary water security-water scarcity in the Limpopo 77

Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in key South African sectors: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process, LTMS Input Report 5

2007

Assessing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in key South African sectors i Ten free-standing chapters make up this report, and this Executive Summary and supporting Synthesis Report serve to draw together the main findings in both an abbreviated and an extended and illustrated format that focuses on main findings, but also adds a level of detail for the purpose of communicating the key results, and the uncertainties associated with them, for the benefit of a policy maker. The chapters that make up this report are compiled as separate documents as follows. These are generally reviews of the literature available, but in some cases comprise new work that has been carried out to provide information in an area that is lacking an assessment.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa

WIRES Climate Change, 2014

In this paper we review current approaches to and recent advances in research on climate impacts and adaptation in South Africa. South Africa has a well-developed earth system science research programme that underpins the climate change scenarios developed for the southern African region. Established research on the biophysical impacts of climate change on key sectors (water, agriculture and biodiversity) integrates the climate change scenarios but further research is needed in a number of areas, such as the climate impacts on cities and the built environment. National government has developed a National Climate Change Response White Paper, but this has yet to translate into policy that mainstreams adaptation in everyday practice and longer-term planning in all spheres and levels of government. A national process to scope long-term adaptation scenarios is underway, focusing on cross-sectoral linkages in adaptation responses at a national level. Adaptation responses are emerging in certain sectors. Some notable city-scale and project-based adaptation responses have been implemented, but institutional challenges persist. In addition, a number of knowledge gaps remain in relation to the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. A particular need is to develop South Africa’s capacity to undertake integrated assessments of climate change that can support climate-resilient development planning.

Capacity building for climate change risk management in Africa: Encouraging and enabling research for informed decision-making

Environmental Development, 2013