%PDF-1.4 %ÐÔÅØ 3 0 obj << /pgfprgb [/Pattern /DeviceRGB] >> endobj 4 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.1) >> endobj 7 0 obj (1 Introduction) endobj 8 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.2) >> endobj 11 0 obj (2 Exponential smoothing models for seasonal data) endobj 12 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.1) >> endobj 15 0 obj (2.1 Traditional approaches) endobj 16 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.2) >> endobj 19 0 obj (2.2 Modified models) endobj 20 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.3) >> endobj 23 0 obj (2.3 Trigonometric seasonal models) endobj 24 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.4) >> endobj 27 0 obj (2.4 Innovations state space formulations) endobj 28 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.4.1) >> endobj 31 0 obj (2.4.1 TBATS model) endobj 32 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.4.2) >> endobj 35 0 obj (2.4.2 BATS model) endobj 36 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.4.3) >> endobj 39 0 obj (2.4.3 Reduced forms) endobj 40 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.3) >> endobj 43 0 obj (3 Estimation, prediction, and model selection) endobj 44 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.1) >> endobj 47 0 obj (3.1 Estimation) endobj 48 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.2) >> endobj 51 0 obj (3.2 Prediction) endobj 52 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.3) >> endobj 55 0 obj (3.3 Model selection) endobj 56 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.3.1) >> endobj 59 0 obj (3.3.1 The use of an information criterion) endobj 60 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.3.2) >> endobj 63 0 obj (3.3.2 Selecting the number of harmonics ki in the trigonometric models) endobj 64 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.3.3) >> endobj 67 0 obj (3.3.3 Selecting the ARMA orders p and q for the models) endobj 68 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.4) >> endobj 71 0 obj (4 Applications of the proposed models) endobj 72 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> endobj 75 0 obj (4.1 Application to weekly US gasoline data) endobj 76 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.2) >> endobj 79 0 obj (4.2 Application to call center data) endobj 80 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.3) >> endobj 83 0 obj (4.3 Application to the Turkey electricity demand data) endobj 84 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.5) >> endobj 87 0 obj (5 Concluding remarks) endobj 88 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [89 0 R /Fit] >> endobj 92 0 obj << /Length 626 /Filter /FlateDecode >> stream xÚ¥TMoÛ0½çWèhM}YÖn+Ún-¶ukl@уk«M°ø£–³´ÿ~´å´]»n‡!@D‘òã#%d7Ùû>[–³äØdÌ‚MEÊ–×L)4Š™Œ|lY²‹èd±øυˆStnÿ_.O_€-gœdœY‚K–Ú”ÈXQÍng 0MÇø£5¬ .œÉIÅÙa3ûJ¿=æ|?AÝóç ¤JÅP —K -¦]›w}åê>Ò\‡õ(–MÝT®ïÖ…Þ¼.ƒq°õëÚùɽˆ³¨Ïcõk߇© !;«uÈ&%ªÁ r¯ú¾}›$»Ý.6ÁÕÖ»¢ª©s¿Wn!ß&¥k{Ÿ¸+Ÿ´[úÛµyë:Ÿü±ÍɱE&˜Ìð!¥Ì(%ŸrÇ©Ê.æ*rENtë*Âpâ^¹`y×­önݯ†dL–Í¥™¨¢©Ú»Û“{"¾ »vlFO¹"×Õc?ˆ‚¶éoC§ôî®mj’a½ÇðUÓô«!þÐMC2k5–FíDÁæZƒQ2€½ÛÜûUù–C֏럮Ëß„Í9qk®‚}–÷uYåõÈ3ÀA¢iM€~Ðý<ß´« {Ò¾¾/]7êAc~û8è2¡™&†š§‘¼¸DVRì”ÑÚŒíÆ“S(!¥£È6lAcý#¤€Ô$ üÉŽÐòj¸šÿÆTÊ¿!žWòÚ£òäR E+É•‘¢S»ÏŠ>Ö¤õuì±@Ža†h”3â0è.Ô4DßbÉi¢„Q¢ã_b¡£ážLo“Nоö.ý¹°/[ endstream endobj 89 0 obj << /Type /Page /Contents 92 0 R /Resources 91 0 R /MediaBox [0 0 595.276 841.89] /Parent 97 0 R >> endobj 90 0 obj << /Type /XObject /Subtype /Image /Width 976 /Height 126 /BitsPerComponent 8 /Length 53028 /ColorSpace /DeviceRGB /Filter /DCTDecode >> stream ÿØÿà JFIF ÿÛ C ÿÛ CÿÀ ~Ð" ÿÄ ÿÄ µ } !1AQa"q2‘¡#B±ÁRÑð$3br‚ %&'()*456789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyzƒ„…†‡ˆ‰Š’“”•–—˜™š¢£¤¥¦§¨©ª²³´µ¶·¸¹ºÂÃÄÅÆÇÈÉÊÒÓÔÕÖ×ØÙÚáâãäåæçèéêñòóôõö÷øùúÿÄ ÿÄ µ w !1AQaq"2B‘¡±Á #3RðbrÑ $4á%ñ&'()*56789:CDEFGHIJSTUVWXYZcdefghijstuvwxyz‚ƒ„…†‡ˆ‰Š’“”•–—˜™š¢£¤¥¦§¨©ª²³´µ¶·¸¹ºÂÃÄÅÆÇÈÉÊÒÓÔÕÖ×ØÙÚâãäåæçèéêòóôõö÷øùúÿÚ ? 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