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. 2018 Oct 25;15(11):2362.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph15112362.

Beyond Singular Climatic Variables-Identifying the Dynamics of Wholesome Thermo-Physiological Factors for Existing/Future Human Thermal Comfort during Hot Dry Mediterranean Summers

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Beyond Singular Climatic Variables-Identifying the Dynamics of Wholesome Thermo-Physiological Factors for Existing/Future Human Thermal Comfort during Hot Dry Mediterranean Summers

Andre Santos Nouri et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Centered on hot dry Mediterranean summer climates, this study assesses the climatic data that was extracted from Lisbon's meteorological station between the years of 2012 and 2016. Focused on the summer period, existing outdoor human thermal comfort levels that are already prone to extreme heat stress thresholds were evaluated. Such an assessment was rooted around identifying the relationship and discrepancies between singular climatic variables (e.g., air Temperature (Ta)); and adapted thermos-physiological indices (e.g., the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET)), which also consider the influence of radiation fluxes over the human body. In addition, default urban canyon case studies (UCCs) were utilized to supplement how both differ and influence one another, especially under extreme weather conditions including heat waves events (HWE), and very hot days (VHD). Through the use of wholesome thermo-physiological indices, the study revealed that while human health and thermal comfort is already prone to extreme physiological stress (PS) grades during one of the hottest months of the year, the current extremes could be drastically surpassed by the end of the century. Within the examined UCCs, it was identified that the projected PET could reach values of 58.3 °C under a projected climate change RCP8.5/SRES A1FI scenario. Similarly, and in terms of thermo-physiological stress loads, the following could happen: (i) a future "cooler summer day" could present similar conditions to those currently found during a 'typical summer day; (ii) a future 'typical summer day' could present hourly physiological equivalent temperature load (PETL) that recurrently surpassed those currently found during a "very hot day"; and, (iii) a future "very hot day" could reveal severe hourly PETL values that reached 35.1 units beyond the established "no thermal stress" class.

Keywords: Mediterranean climate; climate change; human thermal comfort; physiologically equivalent temperature; urban canyon cases.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(A) The layout of the sky-view-factor (SVF) in each reference point (RP) within the three configured urban canyon cases (UCC). (B) Illustration of West or East RP in each UCC. (C) Illustration of Central RP in each UCC. (D) Illustration of Sun Paths for 3, 8, and 12 July 2016.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Heatmap of hourly variations of air temperature (Ta) between 09:00–18:00 for 2012–2016 extracted from Lisbon’s meteorological station (N°08535). The blue color corresponds to the station calibration (CAL.) periods.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Heatmap of hourly variations of V1.1 between 09:00–18:00 for 2012–2016 extracted from Lisbon’s meteorological station (N°08535). The green color corresponds to the station CAL. periods.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Heatmap of hourly variations of Octas between 09:00–18:00 for 2012–2016 extracted from Lisbon’s meteorological station (N°08535). The green color corresponds to the station CAL. periods.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Heatmap of hourly variations of relative humidity (RH) between 09:00–18:00 for 2012–2016 extracted from Lisbon’s meteorological station (N°08535). The blue color corresponds to the station CAL. periods.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Heatmap of hourly variations of physiological stress (PS) grades based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) values between 09:00–18:00 for 2012–2016, based on the fusion of singular climatic variables extracted from Lisbon’s meteorological station (N°08535). The grey color corresponds to the station CAL. Periods.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Heatmap of hourly variations of physiological stress (PS) grades based on modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) values between 09:00–18:00 for 2012–2016, based on the fusion of singular climatic variables extracted from Lisbon’s meteorological station (N°08535). The grey color corresponds to the station CAL. periods.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Hourly variations of physiological stress (PS) grades based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) values between 09:00–18:00 for 12 July 2016 within the urban canyons cases (UCCs).
Figure 9
Figure 9
Hourly variations of physiological stress (PS) grades based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) values between 09:00–18:00 for 8 July 2016 within the urban canyons cases (UCCs).
Figure 10
Figure 10
Hourly variations of physiological stress (PS) grades based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) values between 09:00–18:00 for 3 July 2016 within the urban canyons cases (UCCs).
Figure 11
Figure 11
Hourly variations of physiological stress (PS) grades based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) values between 09:00–18:00, based on 8 (A) and 3 (B) July 2016, with projected climate change augmentations (RCP8.5/SRES A1FI scenario) within the urban canyons cases (UCCs).
Figure 12
Figure 12
Radar chart of distribution for existing and projected diurnal physiologically equivalent temperature load (PETL) values within urban canyons case 0.25 (UCC0.25) for 3, 8, and 12 July.
Figure 13
Figure 13
Bell curve comparison for existing morning, afternoon, and diurnal cumulative physiologically equivalent temperature loads (cPETL) for July 2016.
Figure 14
Figure 14
Bell curve comparison for projected morning, afternoon, and diurnal cumulative physiologically equivalent temperature loads (cPETL) for July 2016, with projected climate change aggravations * (RCP8.5/SRES A1FI scenario).

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