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. 2017 Jun 30;48(2):64-69.

Population attributable fractions for colorectal cancer and red and processed meats in Colombia - a macro-simulation study

Esther de Vries  1 , Doris C Quintero  2 , Giana Henríquez-Mendoza  3 , Oscar Fernando Herrán  4
Affiliations

Population attributable fractions for colorectal cancer and red and processed meats in Colombia - a macro-simulation study

Esther de Vries et al. Colomb Med (Cali). .

Abstract
in English, Spanish

Aim: to estimate the population attributable risk of consumption of red and processed meat for colorectal cancer in Colombia.

Methods: to model the expected incidence of colorectal cancer in the hypothetical situation of no red and processed meat consumption in Colombia, for the year 2010. A dynamic macrosimulation model, PREVENT 3.01, was used to integrate available cancer incidence, meat consumption prevalence and associated risk data and to evaluate the impact of eliminating red and processed meat from the Colombian diet on national colorectal cancer incidence.

Results: Eliminating consumption of red meat altogether from the Colombian diet resulted in reductions in age-standardized colorectal cancer incidence, translating in reductions of 331 males (PAF 13%) and 297 female cases (PAF 10%). Eliminating processed meats had slightly stronger effects, with decreases of 362 males (PAF 14%) and 388 female cases (PAF 13%).

Conclusions: A substantial proportion of the burden of colorectal cancer in Colombia can be attributed to the consumption of red and processed meat.

Objetivo: estimar la fracción atribuible poblacional de consumo de carne roja y procesada para el cáncer colorrectal en Colombia.

Métodos: modelación de la incidencia esperada de cáncer colorrectal en la situación hipotética de no consumo de carne roja y procesada en Colombia para el año 2010. Se utilizó un modelo dinámico de macrosimulación, PREVENT 3.01, para integrar los datos disponibles sobre incidencia de cáncer y evaluar el impacto de la eliminación de la dieta colombiana de la carne roja y procesada sobre la incidencia nacional de cáncer colorrectal.

Resultados: La eliminación del consumo total de carne roja de la dieta colombiana dio lugar a reducciones en la incidencia estandarizada por edad de cáncer colorrectal, traduciéndose en la disminución de 331 casos en hombres (FAP 13%) y 297 en mujeres (FAP 10%). La eliminación de carnes procesadas tuvo efectos ligeramente más fuertes, con disminución de 362 casos en hombres (FAP 14%) y 388 en mujeres (FAP 13%).

Conclusiones: Una proporción sustancial de la carga de cáncer colorrectal en Colombia puede atribuirse al consumo de carne roja y procesada.

Keywords: Colombia; Red meat; carcinogens; colorectal neoplasms; diet; meat; processed meat; risk; software.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Age-standardized (SEGI standard population) colorectal cancer incidence rates estimated for Colombia, 2010, under the reference (real) and intervention scenarios
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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