Following a big push from the government and electric vehicle (EV) producers, the U.K. is expected to undergo a significant shift away from internal combustion (ICE) vehicles in favour of EVs in the coming years. This news comes despite lower-than-expected EV sales in the U.S. and Europe this year, which drove many automakers to rein in their production strategies.
Auto Trader, the U.K.’s biggest digital automotive platform, forecasts a ‘seismic shift’ to EVs in Britain in the coming years. According to a recent report from Auto Trader, the number of petrol cars on U.K. roads peaked in 2024 and is expected to fall by over 40 percent over the next decade. The company estimates that there were around 18.7 million petrol-powered vehicles on U.K. roads this year and expects this figure to decrease starting next year, to 11.1 million by 2034.
Auto Trader’s commercial director Ian Plummer said, “Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK. We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share.” Pummer added, “All this is happening against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand despite a range of challenges for the industry, not least the introduction of ZEV targets, constrained supply, changing finance rules, and the budget.”
The company believes that EV uptake will increase sharply, from 1.25 million in 2024 to 13.7 million in 2034, as affordability improves. It also predicts that the EV share of the new car market will grow from around 18 percent this year to 23 percent in 2025. This falls below the 28 percent sales target under the U.K. government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. The mandate requires 22 percent of all new car sales to be electric in 2024, a target that increases to 80 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035.
Lower-than-expected EV uptake in the U.K. in recent years has been blamed on a range of issues including a lack of charging infrastructure across the country, high EV prices, and a limited range between charges. Strict government mandates on emissions and the shift from ICE to EV have encouraged many automakers to shift their focus to EV models and have forced others to close conventional vehicle production operations. However, if automakers do not achieve the sales levels they were hoping for, they could suffer financially in the coming years. This has led the industry to lobby for the UK government to relax the mandate.
The CEO of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) Mike Hawes stated, “Fleet renewal across the market remains the quickest way to decarbonise, so diminishing overall uptake is not good news for the economy, for investment or for the environment.” Hawes added, “EVs already work for many people and businesses, but to shift the entire market at the pace demanded requires significant intervention on incentives, infrastructure and regulation.”
However, not everyone agrees with some of the leading industry voices. In November, a group of 14 NGOs, think tanks and campaign groups wrote an open letter to the U.K. government calling for the ZEV mandate to be upheld. The group said that the policy is one of the U.K.’s single biggest carbon-saving measures and suggested that the current flexibilities given to the car industry are sufficient.
The government has responded to the calls to action with plans to move up a consultation to consider how to help the industry reach its commitment to phase out the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2030. It has also announced a budget of over $382.5 million to encourage greater EV uptake.
While it may be later than expected, a shift is coming, according to Auto Trader. The firm’s data suggests that the gap is beginning to close between the price of second-hand EVs and ICE vehicles, with one in three used EVs priced at under $25,500 on its platform. It is finding that more and more EVs of three- to five-years-old now cost the same as the same-age ICE vehicles. While consumer demand has fallen as inflation and the cost of living have risen, it is expected to steadily increase in the coming years. Auto Trader expects sales to grow by around 2 percent next year to 1.98 million.
In the U.K., sales of EVs have been increasing in recent months, despite the reduced overall demand for vehicles. In October, automakers sold 29,800 EVs, which marks an increase of around 25 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, overall vehicle sales fell by 6 percent in October, year on year.
Despite widespread industry criticism over the strict U.K. government measures aimed at an eventual ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles, environmentalists see the move as highly promising for decarbonisation aims. Meanwhile, in spite of overall lower-than-expected car sales figures, Auto Trader and the SMMT have recorded significant year-on-year increases in the sale of EVs in recent months, signalling a greater shift over the next decade.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Exxon to Increase Oil Production by 18% By 2030
- Gazprom Hits Maximum Capacity of Pipeline Gas Flows to China
- European Energy Majors Shift Back to Oil and Gas
