For a fourth consecutive month, OPEC slashed on Tuesday its estimate of global oil demand growth for both this year and next, citing downward revisions in China and other Asian markets after seeing actual consumption data year to date.
OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, down by 107,000 bpd from last month’s assessment, the cartel said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report.
OPEC now expects global demand to grow by 1.82 million barrels a day (mbd) this year, down by 107,000 b/d and by 1.54 mbd in 2025 down by 100,000 b/d.
Still global oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.0 mbd in 2024 bolstered by healthy economic growth from China and countries of the the Asia-Pacific region.
And though OPEC+ cut China’s demand growth forecast to 450,000 b/d this year, down from 580,000 b/d and by 100,000 b/d in 2025, China's demand is still growing nevertheless albeit at a slightly reduced rate. This could be easily reversed with the introduction of China's financial stimulus.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert
“The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2024, supported by the strong fundamentals of the industrial and export sectors, as well as the central government's ability to implement policy measures to tackle challenges in other areas, including the property sector and sluggish consumer demand,” OPEC said, referring to China’s near-term economic and oil demand prospects.
The cartel also lowered by 103,000 bpd its projection of global oil demand growth for 2025 and now expects it at 1.54 million bpd year-over-year, down from 1.64 million bpd growth projected in the October report.