Is the Russia-Ukraine War Really Escalating?

The Biden administration has had a change of heart on letting Kyiv use long-range missiles against targets on Russian soil, and Moscow’s response on Thursday was a showy one. Putin launched an experimental hypersonic ballistic missile at Ukraine, underscoring what the Kremlin views as the red line in this conflict–the red line that would put NATO at war with Russia. The experimental missile was armed with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead and aimed at a Ukrainian defense facility. Prior to Putin’s statement, Kyiv had claimed that Moscow had fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at Dnipro (which would have been a historical first) before Washington intervened to report it was an intermediate-range missile.

This attack, and the continually shifting red line, can either be read as an escalation into a much wider war, or as a reflection of Putin’s scramble for more leverage. He’s lost control of the narrative, here, and not even a Trump victory has been able to turn that around. This is a frozen conflict, with Russia failing to make any notable strategic gains this year, and the Kremlin’s frequent nuclear threats have largely fallen on deaf ears, dulling its power as leverage. That’s not to say that the Biden administration isn't feeling some pressure to act more aggressively visa-a-vis Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to get out in front of a change in regime in Washington in January. 

The length of the missile in this war is an important aspect of east-west propaganda, and downsizing from intercontinental to intermediate takes some of the wind out of the Kremlin’s sails, even though Kyiv was happy to use this designation to raise the fear level and garner more support for its own use of long-range missiles against Russia. 

In the meantime, Russian forces have continued a slow but steady advance in the direction of Ukraine’s Pokrovs and Kurakhove directions, though the advances have not really won them any real strategic gains. In the same vein, Ukraine has maintained its hold on positions in Russia’s Kursk oblast and continues to target Russian military and energy facilities, without any real strategic gains, either. 

Nor has Russia's new nuclear doctrine, which was released right before the launching of the experimental missile, resulted in any strategic victories. The new and more aggressive doctrine was intended to result in a more resounding cry of fear, at least from Western Europe. We expect more moves designed to be more intimidating in the coming days and weeks, but our assessment is that this is pomp and circumstance against the backdrop of a partially frozen conflict.