Millions of electric cars are to hit the market next year as every self-respecting carmaker submits its lineup of plug-in vehicles for the environmentally conscious. Sales forecasts for these electric gems vary but tend to be generally optimistic, so carmakers’ hopes run high.
There is just one small problem with this perfect picture: range anxiety.
However, the real challenge facing a wider penetration of EVs into the global transport system is the realization that oil is irreplaceable now or ever.
Whilst EVs are benefiting from evolving technologies, internal combustion engines (ICEs) are equally benefiting from the evolving motor technology. As a result, ICEs are not only getting more environmentally-friendlier but they are also able to outperform EVs in terms of range, price, reliability and efficiency.
Therefore, no one should get fooled by the rush of car makers towards investing in EVs. This is being forced on them by government regulations and also by wanting to burnish their environmental credentials rather than by business sense.
Yet, EVs will eventually take a share of the global transport market that will enable them to slightly decelerate the global demand for oil but they will never ever be able to replace oil throughout the 21st century and far beyond.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London