In the new hit TV show “Landman”, the lead character, Tommy Norris, delivers a five-minute speech that summarizes just how critical for modern civilization crude oil is. Everything, up to and including wind turbines, depends on oil. This year, with record EV sales in China and the continued buildout of wind and solar in Europe, has proven just how pertinent that speech is to the current state of the energy transition—or the absence of it.
About a month ago, the World Bank predicted in a blog post that crude oil demand would hit 103 million barrels daily in 2024. What the World Bank noted was that this number represented slowing demand. What the W?rld Bank did not mention was that the number also represented another all-time high for oil demand.
Nov 24 Vs Nov 23 oil demand for road fuel was down 12.8 percent. YTD is is down 5.9 percent.
It will continue to fall at about 6 percent a year with 2024 demand as the base, unless the fleet replacement level increases.
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And while India is becoming a major driver of the global economy, it will never overtake China in oil demand. This is because:
1- China's economy is currently more than 2.53 times bigger than India both based on purchasing power parity (PPP).
2- China is the world's largest exporter exporting $3.6 trillion in 2024 compared with $777 bn for India. In other words, China exports 4.6 times more than India.
3- China's manufacturing sector is 30% of its GDP in 2024 or $11.1 trillion compared with India's 17% or $2.48 trillion or 4.5 times bigger.
4- China's command economy is far more efficient that India's . India can never catch up with China in technology, innovation and competitiveness.
Talk about India overtaking China is Western disinformation media's unsubstantiated claims.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert