Daniel Rakov is a Senior Researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He specializes in Russian policy in the Middle East and great-power competition in the region. He served in the IDF for more than 20 years, primarily in Israeli Defense Intelligence (Aman). From 2019-2021, he was a Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
Arterra Haifa, 19.03.2024
Russia’s hostile stance in the war against Hamas strengthens Israel’s affiliation with the Western camp. Israel should refrain from public criticism of Moscow.
The Kremlin quickly suppressed the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin, which might prove of great importance for the stability of Putin’s regime. It further undermined Moscow’s efforts to position itself as a global power, though it did not affect the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. Russia will remain an essential player in the Middle East (vital for its economy following the war). Still, the rebellion will strengthen the bargaining power of the region’s countries, including Israel, vis-à-vis Moscow.
Due to the importance of oil prices for Russia, Israel may utilize its leverage to prevent Russia from allying with Iran by exerting pressure on the Kremlin through the Sunni Gulf monarchies.
Israel should prepare for a prolonged crisis. The Russians might want to delay or accelerate the legal process to exploit the elections period. The verdict will not constitute the final word. The government is advised to navigate the crisis behind the scenes: publicity might accelerate escalation.
The difficulties of the Russian military on the battlefield increase the possibility that in the coming weeks, Moscow will expand the fighting as part of preparations for a long-term military campaign.
As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
Global powers might find it more challenging to reach a consensus on the Middle East than before. This makes it more critical for Israel to get separate understandings or develop new partnerships both globally and regionally.
The Israeli government has not publicly expressed a position regarding the gathering of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. Still, a renewed war between Russia and Ukraine could make it challenging to choose between its commitment to its Western allies and its important relationship with Russia.
