data {

int<lower=0> Ndogs;

int<lower=0> Ntrials;

array[Ndogs, Ntrials] int Y;

}

transformed data {

array[Ndogs, Ntrials] int y;

array[Ndogs, Ntrials] int xa;

array[Ndogs, Ntrials] int xs;

for (dog in 1 : Ndogs) {

xa[dog, 1] = 0;

xs[dog, 1] = 0;

for (trial in 2 : Ntrials) {

for (k in 1 : (trial - 1)) {

xa[dog, trial] = xa[dog, trial] + Y[dog, k];

}

xs[dog, trial] = trial - 1 - xa[dog, trial];

}

}

for (dog in 1 : Ndogs) {

for (trial in 1 : Ntrials) {

y[dog, trial] = 1 - Y[dog, trial];

}

}

}

parameters {

real<upper=-0.00001> alpha;

real<upper=-0.00001> beta;

}

model {

alpha ~ normal(0.0, 316.2);

beta ~ normal(0.0, 316.2);

for (dog in 1 : Ndogs) {

for (trial in 2 : Ntrials) {

y[dog, trial] ~ bernoulli(exp(alpha * xa[dog, trial]

+ beta * xs[dog, trial]));

}

}

}

generated quantities {

real A;

real B;

A = exp(alpha);

B = exp(beta);

}