The Race to Secure Syria’s Chemical Weapons

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. Just a note that the newsletter will be taking the next two weeks off for the holidays. We’ll return on Jan. 9.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The race to secure Syria’s remaining chemical weapons stockpiles after the fall of Assad, a top Russian military official is assassinated in Moscow, and rising optimism for a cease-fire in Gaza.

Deadly Weapons

The sudden collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sparked a race to locate and secure Syria’s remaining chemical weapons stockpiles as the fractured country, home to a number of armed factions and terror groups, seeks to turn the page on years of war and authoritarian rule.

Once in possession of one of the largest stockpiles in the world, Syria signed on to the Chemical Weapons Convention in 2013 in the face of growing international pressure following the regime’s use of the deadly nerve agent sarin in Eastern Ghouta, killing 1,400 people.

As a signatory, Assad agreed to work with the international community to dismantle the country’s stockpiles, but the United States and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the convention’s implementing body, have long suspected that Assad held some of the lethal weapons in reserve and may have been working to develop new ones. The regime’s continued procurement and use of chemical weapons throughout the civil war sharpened concerns.

With Syria now under the control of a patchwork of groups led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—which the United States and other countries consider a terrorist organization—the United States is working to identify the country’s remaining stockpiles, a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity told SitRep.

The OPCW also held an emergency meeting on Thursday—its first in over five years—to discuss the situation in Syria.

“The political and security situation in the country remains volatile. It may have an impact on the status of chemical weapons related sites and pose proliferation risks,” said OPCW Director-General Fernando Arias at the meeting’s opening. “Such concerns include not only residual elements but also potential new components of a chemical weapons program and also the chlorine program,” he said.

A lingering arsenal. Syrian rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, told Reuters last Wednesday that his group, HTS, was working with the international community to secure potential chemical weapons sites.

At its peak, Syria was thought to have one of the largest arsenals of chemical weapons in the world, and researchers have logged hundreds of incidents of the Assad regime using chlorine, sarin, and mustard gas since the civil war erupted in 2011.

The OPCW is urging Syria to declare not only the sarin it possesses but also any chlorine “that is not intended for purposes not prohibited” under the Chemical Weapons Convention.

The prospect of Syria’s remaining chemical weapons being seized by the remnants of the Islamic State operating in the country is a chilling one and one of many reasons the international community is rushing to locate the leftover stockpiles. Islamic State militants were believed to have used crude chemical weapons dozens of times in Iraq and Syria, although their capabilities are limited.

However, Syria’s chemical weapons capabilities are likely stored in former regime-held territory in the west of the country, far from the residual pockets of the Islamic State.

Of greater concern is the prospect of former regime officials and scientists accessing the weapons in the event of a civil war or organized Alawite insurgency, said Gregory Koblentz, an associate professor at George Mason University and expert on chemical and biological weapons, referring to the sect from which the Assad family originated. “That’s a bigger concern for me than the Islamic State,” he said.

Israeli action. Israel is also worried about terror groups gaining access to the weapons and has not wasted time taking steps to neutralize the remaining stockpiles. “We’re concerned,” Ofir Akunis, consul general of Israel in New York, told SitRep. “That’s the reason that we’re in the buffer zone,” Akunis added, referring to the Israeli military’s presence in a U.N.-designated buffer zone inside Syria alongside the Golan Heights.

“We have a lot of intelligence,” Akunis said when asked if Israel knows the locations of the remaining stockpiles. “We will do whatever is necessary to defend our people.”

 The Israeli military has already conducted airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons sites since the Assad regime collapsed, which is part of a broader campaign targeting remaining military assets.

Arias last week expressed concern over the Israeli strikes, warning that they “could create a risk of contamination” and potentially impede various international investigations into the past use of chemical weapons. When asked about these concerns, Akunis said that Israel “will continue to do whatever is necessary until we’re sure that there is no danger.”

Let’s Get Personnel

The latest Trump nominations:

• Bill White, ambassador to Belgium
• Ric Grenell, envoy for special missions
• George Edward Glass, ambassador to Japan
• Lou Rinaldi, ambassador to Uruguay
• Stacey Feinberg, ambassador to Luxembourg
• Arthur Graham Fisher, ambassador to Austria
• Leah Francis Campos, ambassador the Dominican Republic
• Herschel Walker, ambassador to the Bahamas
• Edward Sharp Walsh, ambassador to Ireland
• Devin Nunes, chairman of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board
• Troy Edgar, deputy secretary of Homeland Security

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Russian military leader assassinated. Unnamed Ukrainian security officials claimed responsibility for an explosion on a Moscow street on Tuesday that killed Russian Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the head of the country’s nuclear and chemical weapons protection forces. Kirillov and an aide were killed when a device planted in a scooter was remotely detonated outside of a residential building.

The attack was one of the most high-profile and brazen assassinations Ukraine is believed to have carried out since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost three years ago. The day before Kirillov’s death, Ukraine’s security services charged the military official in absentia for ordering the use of chemical weapons against Kyiv’s forces.

Gaza cease-fire “possible.” There’s growing optimism that a cease-fire is on the horizon in Gaza that would see some or all of the remaining hostages Hamas is holding in the enclave released. “At this moment, we are very close to a new hostage deal,” Ofir Akunis, consul general of Israel in New York, told SitRep on Wednesday. But Akunis cautioned that there are still many details to iron out.

The recent truce between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with other factors such as the fall of Assad in Syria, has seemingly led Hamas to shift its stance in the negotiations. Hamas on Tuesday said an agreement is “possible,” calling talks in Qatar to secure a deal “serious and positive.”

“Hamas is at a point where the cavalry it thought might come to the rescue isn’t coming to the rescue. Hezbollah, not coming to the rescue. Iran, not coming to the rescue,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Thursday. “In the absence of that, I think the pressure is on Hamas to finally get to yes.”

Senate passes defense spending package. The Senate on Wednesday passed an $895 billion defense policy bill, despite opposition from Democratic lawmakers over a provision in the legislation that bans the military’s health care service from covering gender-affirming care for the minor children of U.S. service members. The bill passed in a vote of 85 to 14. The annual legislation, known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), now heads to President Joe Biden’s desk, where he’s expected to sign it.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday said the NDAA, which includes a 14.5 percent pay raise for junior enlisted service members, was “not perfect” but “nonetheless has some very good things that Democrats fought hard for that will strengthen military families and boost tech innovation here at home.”

Snapshot

Runners dressed as Santa Claus take part in the “Santa Run” Christmas race in Mexico City on Dec. 15. Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images

What We’re Reading

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was released from a Russian prison earlier this year in a historic East-West prison swap, continued to report from behind bars during his 16- month incarceration on bogus charges of espionage. This week, Gershkovich and colleagues at the journal published a sprawling report on Russia’s Department of Counterintelligence Operations, a previously little-known elite spy unit that has been at the forefront of a wave of repression in Russia, including the arrests of American citizens.

Put On Your Radar

Thursday, Dec. 19, to Friday, Dec. 20: The European Council leaders’ summit convenes.

Sunday, Dec. 29: Croatia holds a presidential election.

Georgia’s new president is due to be sworn in.

Wednesday, Jan. 1: Brazil takes over the presidency of the BRICS group.

Poland assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

Canada assumes the presidency of the G-7.

Quote of the Week

“I will stay as a registered Republican but will not sit on committees or participate in the caucus until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing. I do not need to be involved in circuses. I would rather spend more of my time helping @DOGE and @RepThomasMassie to save our Republic, as was mandated by the American people.”

—Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, posting on X about her decision to opt out of participation in the House Republican Conference and congressional committees in her forthcoming term. Spartz signaled that she’ll prioritize helping President-elect Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which is not an official department of the federal government.

FP’s Most Read This Week

• How Post-Assad Syria Could Unleash a New Regional Order by Galip Dalay
• Start by Keeping Ukraine Out of Ceasefire Talks by Anatol Lieven
• Is the U.S. Answer to China’s Belt and Road Working? by Lili Pike and Christina Lu

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Tom Cruise is now officially a decorated hero. This week, the U.S. Navy gave the American movie star the Distinguished Public Service Award—the service’s highest civilian honor—for his “outstanding contributions to the Navy and the Marine Corps” through films including 1986’s Top Gun and its 2022 sequel, Top Gun: Maverick, in which Cruise played a hotshot naval fighter pilot.

The Navy said Cruise had “increased public awareness and appreciation for our highly trained personnel and the sacrifices they make while in uniform,” Military Times reported. No word on whether Goose is up for a posthumous award, though.