2025 Oscar nominations predictions: See contenders for Best Picture and acting, from Demi Moore to Wicked

Remember the great Barbenheimer awards gauntlet of 2024? Maybe? Well, Entertainment Weekly's 2025 Oscar nominations predictions are here and ready to introduce a whole new (slightly less pink) crop of contenders set to duke it out for cinematic supremacy in the awards race ahead.

With the festival circuit having birthed strong contenders for Best Picture and acting (Anora, Emilia Pérez, and last year's TIFF award-winning Sing Sing), things already looked bright for the likes of director Sean Baker, actress Mikey Madison, the Pérez ensemble, and Colman Domingo, hot off his first-ever career Academy Award nod for Rustin. End-of-year nominations from awards bodies like the Golden Globes, Gotham Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and Indie Spirits anointed new contenders in the race, pushing under-the-radar contenders like Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) and director Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) to center stage.

All eyes are also on the Best Actress race, featuring Angelina Jolie as she transforms body, soul, and voice (!) to become opera singer Maria Callas in Maria, a title that was leading the charge in an increasingly crowded category race — until the 2025 Golden Globes winners announcement shook things up.

Until Oscars night in March, see EW's 2025 Oscar nominations predictions for the big six categories below — from Best Picture to all of the major acting brackets — updating throughout the awards season ahead.

Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best in TV, movies, and more.

The 2025 Oscars air Sunday, March 2 on ABC, beginning at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT, with the official red carpet presentation beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT. Conan O'Brien is also set to host the ceremony for the first time in his career.

Best Picture

Award-winning festival standouts such as Anora (the Cannes Palme d'Or winner) and Edward Berger's Conclave emerged early as the cream of the crop, with The Brutalist hot on their tail thanks to a stellar showing during the Golden Globes telecast.

If there was any doubt about the increasing awards strength of these worldly cinema summits, though, let's look back one year to Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall, which also sustained from Cannes all the way through to the Oscars, and stormed the European Film Awards with major victories there, too. However, given the Academy's increasingly international voting base and EFA crossover, it's likely that Emilia Pérez is building the most behind-the-scenes support, after becoming both an EFA standout and subsequent Golden Globes leader, with four overall victories at the Jan. 5 show.

A Complete Unknown also can't be discounted as a significant contender, drawing further support from factions that share voters with the Academy, like the DGA (where filmmaker James Mangold snuck in over The Substance helmer Coralie Fargeat).

The PGA Awards also added a bit of complication — and, ultimately, clarity — to the process, with Sing Sing missing yet another major Best Picture opportunity here, and peripheral contender September 5 sliding into its slot with the guild. Notable here is that the PGA Awards use the same preferential ballot voting system that the Academy employs.

In the end, with rumblings of Academy members being unwilling to sit through Golden Globe Best Picture-winning drama The Brutalist's absurd 215-minute runtime, the race (at least, judging by BAFTA nominations) appears to be between Emilia Pérez and Conclave — and, even in an age where films like Moonlight and Parasite can win Best Picture, it's always safer to go with the, uh, safe Academy bet, and that's Conclave.

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Pérez
3. The Brutalist
4. Anora
5. Wicked
6. A Complete Unknown
7. The Substance
8. Dune: Part Two
9. A Real Pain
10. Sing Sing

Other contenders: September 5; Nickel Boys; Gladiator II; Queer

Best Director

Making a safe bet is always, naturally, a gamble when it comes to predicting the Best Director race. Most voters in this branch stay the course, aligning with the rest of the industry on a handful of filmmakers behind the year's most-praised pictures. There are typically one or two surprises in the category every year, as the branch continues inviting a more global voting base into its ranks. This often results in an international director squeezing past more well-known directors, and outside of the usual suspects behind marquee entries in the race this year, the genre-defying, visionary spectacle of Coralie Fargeat's The Substance (a popular title among prestige crowds at Cannes, mind you) could land her a spot in the category.

Fargeat's standing in the race got an even bigger boost when she showed up among the Golden Globes' Best Director lineup, atop The Substance gaining in other categories like Supporting Actress (Margaret Qualley) and Screenplay, in addition to Demi Moore's leading turn — which, as we'll get into later, won in a shocking upset among the Best Actress bracket. Still, Fargeat missed out on a DGA nom, though that group's membership represents a more general sampling of domestic voters than the Academy's international-leaning branch of directors.

Other than that, it's wise to predict the men responsible for the, well, safest bets — including Jon M. Chu's towering achievement with Wicked, which missed out at the Globes, but could still speak to the Academy's directing branch thanks to its endurance throughout the end-of-year frame and overwhelming commercial success. Don't count out Golden Globes breakout Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light, either, as the film has steadily shown up on multiple International Feature rosters, with Kapadia now rising through the crowd on her own, too.

In the end, though, the Globes ultimately made the safest bet, and went with Brady Corbet, the actor-turned-director behind a three-and-a-half-hour historic drama, for its Best Director choice. Anora, on the other hand, went home without a single victory. Make of that what you will.

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Sean Baker, Anora
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
   

Other contenders: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light; Jon M. Chu, Wicked; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Best Actor

Actors? Playing real-life historical figures? Or — gasp — playing gay? You don't say! While there are a few contenders who fall into this category this year (Queer), the work leading men bring to the table is no less exciting.

Hot off his nomination for Rustin, Domingo is eyeing up another strong bid for awards attention in Sing Sing, a project that actually debuted on the festival circuit last year, though goodwill for the film and its leading performance has carried it through to this year's competition. Other likely nominees hail from Best Picture contenders (Ralph Fiennes, Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet's transformation into Bob Dylan for A Complete Unknown).

Just before Oscar nominations voting began, though, Brody's work triumphed on the Golden Globes ceremony, where he gave a heartfelt speech with millions watching — always a good thing as voters prepare to cast their ballots. Then, SAG announced its crop of Best Actor nominees — and, to no one's surprise, it was the five mainstays who've endured throughout the season all along.

Recent developments, however — including a light AI controversy — indicate that The Brutalist may not be as strong of a contender as once anticipated, and Conclave's box office might, cross-demographic appeal, and strong, enduring presence on the precursor circuit point to a likely Fiennes victory in the end.

1. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Other contenders: Daniel Craig, Queer

Best Actress

While Pablo Larraín has directed two leading stars to Best Actress nominations for playing real-life cultural figures, his last effort, 2021's Spencer, barely crept over the threshold to score Kristen Stewart her first-ever acting nod. Angelina Jolie's turn as ill-fated opera singer Maria Callas in Maria has much larger backing behind it, with Netflix securing distribution rights to the title following its successful bow at the fall festivals. Jolie's superstar status also gives it a large dose of built-in star power, as she has two Oscars (one competitive, one honorary) already to her name.

Mikey Madison's leading turn in Anora, however, occupies the other side of that coin, as the budding, rising star's central performance would mark her first nod at the top of a promising career. Honoring such ingenue status is an increasingly common thing in this category, which could also mark a historic nod for buzzy Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofia Gascón, who'd become the first trans woman to appear in this category if she's nominated.

Other mainstays in well-received films include Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun, Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door (both Antonio Banderas and Penélope Cruz have reaped nods for work in Pedro Almodóvar's recent titles), and Babygirl's Nicole Kidman, who won Best Actress in Venice.

Cynthia Erivo roared into the conversation for her towering performance as Elphaba in Wicked, with the film's undeniable box-office success boosting her into the conversation.

I'm Still Here star Fernanda Torres threw a wrench into the race, however, showing up among the Golden Globes nominations thanks to an intense behind-the-scenes campaign lifting her into the hunt. It was the 2025 Golden Globes winners list, however, that truly shook up the race at large, with The Substance's Demi Moore pulling off a momentous victory over presumed Musical or Comedy frontrunner Madison — complete with a rousing, emotional acceptance speech at just the right time ahead of final Oscars voting — and Torres overtaking Jolie for a shock upset among Best Actress' Drama division.

Jolie's campaign was dealt a devastating hand on SAG nominations morning, though, when she missed out on a Best Actress nod from the group. Stranger things have happened in the Oscar race (Stewart crept into the final Best Actress lineup after a spotty track record, too), but for now, the Globes might've been the final note in Jolie's 2025 awards season swan song.

1. Demi Moore,The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Other contenders: Angelina Jolie, Maria; Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Best Supporting Actor

It's hard not to predict that the pattern of excellence ignited by Succession will continue as its stars navigate their post-series careers. Former colleagues on the HBO drama, Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin might've found themselves nominated in the same category this year for their supporting roles in The Apprentice and A Real Pain, respectively, though Strong's place in the race has significantly dwindled as the film's distributor, Briarcliff, couldn't push the film toward enough of a box office impact to make a dent in the Oscars race. There's a chance that the left-leaning Screen Actors Guild Awards could boost the project's prospects, and if it catches on there, there's no stopping Strong's wonderful performance as Roy Cohn.

Realistically, the safe bets at this stage are mostly in Best Picture contenders like The Brutalist (the long overdue Guy Pearce) and Anora (Yura Borisov is a relative unknown to many voters, but will go along for the ride here). Industry favorite Denzel Washington's star-powered, well-received turn in Gladiator II also bubbled up when the film debuted, though, after missing virtually no precursors along the way ahead of giving a charming acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, Culkin is — without doubt — the one to beat.

In recent years, across several categories, the Academy has been known to throw in a nominee or two that showed up literally nowhere else prior to nominations morning, and support building for Conclave makes us feel like the endlessly charming Stanley Tucci might go along for the ride.

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Yura Borisov, Anora
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
4. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
   

Other contenders: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler suffered one of the biggest snubs in recent Oscars history when she missed out on a nod for her work in 2022's Till. This year, signs initially pointed toward awards bodies course-correcting and finally giving her the recognition she deserved then for her equally deserving work in the upcoming August Wilson adaptation The Piano Lesson, but her notable snubs have continued on the trail, while The Last Showgirl star Jamie Lee Curtis entered her afterglow era by popping up at the last minute where it matters: SAG and BAFTA, two groups that share heavy crossover membership with the Academy.

In Deadwyler's place, the Emilia Pérez stars continue building support, with Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez looking to continue their shared prize at Cannes toward their first nominations as well, though the former feels poised to take the overall victory following her win at the Golden Globes.

Felicity Jones might go along for the ride with The Brutalist boys, but a question mark remains over Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor's performance in Nickel Boys, which saw director RaMell Ross creep into early precursor nominations despite scoring only a single nomination at the Golden Globes (for Best Motion Picture — Drama).

It's a toss-up for the remaining slots, as there are a few different scenarios: Gomez could similarly go along for the ride thanks to a swell of industry support for Pérez, as could Isabella Rossellini's super short (and curiously enthusiastically beloved) work in Conclave.

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
4. Margaret Qualley, The Substance
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
   

Other contenders: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown