Two blips of light in the night sky, whizzing around the globe every 90 minutes, could be where Russia opts to clash with Nato over the Ukraine war.
The first blip you see, if you look up at the right place and time even with a naked eye, is an American spy satellite called USA-326, launched on 2 February into an orbit some 500km above the earth and likely capable of taking images as detailed as legible car number plates.
The second blip, which follows anything from a few seconds to 30 minutes later in a nearly identical orbit 50km lower, is a Russian military satellite called Kosmos-2558.
It was launched on 1 August from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in north-west Russia the moment USA-326 passed overhead, in what looked like an effort to gather information on the US surveillance probe.
The two satellites can be watched on a video posted by Marco Langbroek, a Dutch scientist, in what he called a \"Cold War cat-and-mouse game\" in his blog. Russia's tailgating was \"really irresponsible\", American general James H. Dickinson, in charge of US Space Command, also told the NBC broadcaster on 10 August, in the only high-level comment so far on the satellite duel. But Kosmos-2558's real mission might be more sinister than mere counter-surveillance, given its capabilities. It can deploy a small, manoeuvrable subsatellite, armed with a projectile, that could catch USA-326 and shoot it down, two Russian dummy-runs of the same anti-satellite system showed in 2019 and 2017. Russia also blew up one of its own satellites with a ground-launched missile called Nudol in a test in November 2021 — a display of space aggression just three months before invading Ukraine. And a Russian official, Konstantin Vorontsov, turned up the heat last week by telling the UN that Western satellites seen as helping Ukraine, for instance by gathering intelligence or providing communication links, \"may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike\". Vorontsov was referring to dual-use civilian satellites, such as Space-X's Starlink, rather than military ones, such as USA-326, but his warning echoed widely. \"It's very worrying and you can be sure the Pentagon is tracking it [Kosmos-2558] closely,\" Bart Hendrickx, a Belgian writer on satellite security, told EUobserver on Tuesday (1 November). \"They [the Russians] seem to be waiting for the right moment to deploy that subsatellite. It hasn't separated yet, but once it does, it could move next to the US satellite and do the unthinkable,\" he said. For its part, Nato is thinking what to do if Russia attacks its infrastructure, up above or down below. Defence ministers, meeting in Brussels last month, agreed to step up intelligence-sharing on space and undersea structures, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said, amid suspicion that Russia sabotaged a Baltic Sea gas pipeline in September to spook the West. When asked by EUobserver this week if a satellite strike would prompt Nato retaliation, a Nato official declined to answer. He instead quoted Stoltenberg from the Brussels meeting, who said: \"Exactly what kind of measure [Nato retaliation], depends on the nature of the attack. And we will never give our potential adversaries the privilege of defining exactly where the threshold for Article 5 [the Nato treaty's mutual defence clause] goes\". Jamie Shea, a former senior Nato official now teaching war studies in Exeter University in the UK, was more outspoken. \"Any attack by Russia against satellites used by Nato [member states] in space would be seen as an act of aggression that could trigger Article 5,\" he said. \"Other allies whose satellites are damaged by the space debris engendered by a Russian attack could also request the activation of Article 5,\" he added. Nato doctrine says its retaliation, in any event, would be \"proportionate\" to the act of aggression. The US is the only Nato ally with anti-satellite systems, first developed in the Cold War. It also has the most advanced signals-interception spy satellites, in a high orbit 36,000km above the earth. But Russia is miles ahead in terms of modern, operational counter-satellite capabilities, according to open source information analysed by the Secure World Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank. The last time the US tested its abilities was when it shot down one of its old, low-orbit satellites in 2008. It did so using a modified surface-to-air missile rather than a specialised space weapon and there is no sign its arsenal has moved on in recent years. But Kosmos-2558s and Nudols aside, Russia is rolling out the 'Burevestnik' programme of killer satellites launched into orbit from the bellies of fighter jets. It has developed laser cannons mounted on trucks or fixed at a base in the North Caucasus, which can destroy satellites' optical sensors, rendering them useless, though it is not known if the laser systems are up-and-running yet, Hendrickx, the Belgian expert, said. It also has ground-based electronic warfare systems that can jam communications and radar-imaging satellites. Russian president Vladimir Putin's anti-satellite supremacy might be one reason why he would pick space as a theatre of conflict in which to give Nato a bloody nose. The fact the West would be reluctant to shoot down Russian satellites in retaliation even if it could do so might also be a factor in his calculations. Russia's Nudol test in 2021 created \"more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris\" and \"hundreds of thousands of smaller [fragments],\" US Space Command said at the time. A cloud of the shrapnel prompted astronauts in the International Space Station, including Russian ones, to make evasive manoeuvres on 25 October when it passed by, Hendrickx noted, in a show of the enduring danger. And while Western allies would be wary of collateral damage to their own satellites, or to Chinese and Indian ones, Russia has a track record of irresponsible behaviour in the sky. \"Russian space debris is also a threat as Russia thus far has not removed from orbit its dozens of defunct satellites that now constitute space junk. This requires Nato countries to pay increasing attention to repositioning their own satellites periodically to avoid collisions,\" Shea, the former Nato official, said, even though some other space powers are guilty of similar neglect. Nato's defensive options included \"hardening satellites against debris and lasers (with shields) and making satellites more manoeuvrable,\" he said. And in any case, no single Russian attack could shut down Western surveillance, GPS, or telecommunications networks, he noted. \"Allies and the EU are also deploying their satellites in constellations so that if one is taken out the system can quickly be reconfigured to maintain connectivity,\" Shea said. \"Conflict in space is not inevitable,\" Nivedita Raju, an expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think-tank, said. But \"trends in space security point to growing potential for escalation\", she said. \"It's in every state's interest to prevent conflict, as it would have devastating effects for all stakeholders,\" she added, recalling Hendrickx on the threat of space debris. \"It is imperative to adopt urgent measures to address potential escalation, including correcting rhetoric and clarifying applicable laws,\" Raju said.","contributors":[{"id":"eu87ebf9ee","firstName":"Andrew","lastName":"Rettman"}],"publishDate":1667406999000,"section":[{"id":"5002452f20","title":"EU & the World"},{"id":"50adaaad9b","title":"Ukraine"}],"articleType":[{"id":"8088e5421e","title":"Feature"}],"img":{"id":"fi96219318","src":"https://files-production-saulx-eu-observer-production-en-ci-hyp-xx0.based.dev/6e043b9d4ebcff26d042dfa502f53f6f.jpg"}},{"id":"ar04066c98","headline":"A 'silent pandemic' the EU is not prepared for","abstract":"\"Mental health is the silent pandemic,\" Irish centre-right MEP Maria Walsh, who spearheads several parliament initiatives on mental health, said, arguing that the EU needs to have a strategy implemented in \"weeks, not years\".","body":" It all started innocently. Working from home, during the pandemic, sounded great at the beginning, but turned out to be a nightmare. The isolation, and the increasingly complex problems which had to be solved from home, alone, eroded her self-confidence. Keeping up with the ever-increasing workload became a challenge. After a while, the smallest task felt impossible to deal with. Then the war in Ukraine started. She stopped sleeping, only getting a couple of hours of rest, getting through the day in an anxious zombie-like state. \"I thought maybe I am tired. I was glad I had Covid so that I didn't need to work,\" this EU official told EUobserver, on the condition of anonymity for privacy reasons. She took two months of leave because of burnout — a challenge faced by a silent but large group of people. Burnout, and workplace stress, is on the rise in Europe, research evidence is now underpinning what everybody senses. More than four out of ten workers (44 percent) in the EU say that their work stress has increased as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a survey by the EU's agency for safety and health at work, EU-OSHA, published last Monday (10 October). Almost half of respondents, 46 percent, said they are exposed to severe time pressure or work overload. Other stress-inducing factors include poor communication or cooperation within the organisation and lack of control over the pace or processes at work. Work-related health issues are on the rise as well. About 30 percent of respondents reported at least one health problem such as fatigue, headaches, eyestrain, muscle problems or pain, caused by work. \"Mental health is the silent pandemic,\" Irish centre-right MEP Maria Walsh, who spearheads several parliament initiatives on mental health, told EUobserver. \"[The] Covid [pandemic] expedited and exacerbated the situation we have been living in Europe and the world for generations — this belief system where work has become the main purpose driver of life,\" Walsh said, referring to a \"rat race of success\" typical in all sectors. A recent European Parliament resolution put together by Walsh called on the EU commission to \"establish mechanisms\" for the prevention of anxiety, depression and burnout at the workplace — urging to recognise them all as occupational diseases. High work intensity, poor leadership quality, long working hours, emotional demands, low level of autonomy, and tense social relationships at work, such as high levels of conflict, bullying, lack of support from colleagues, increase the risk of burnout, according to a 2018 report by Eurofound, an EU agency focusing on research for better work-related policies. Imbalances between the desired employee benefits and the actual rewards also add to the likelihood of burnout, Eurofound found. Some of the physical symptoms can be diabetes, heart diseases, cardiovascular disorder, prolonged fatigue, gastrointestinal issues, respiratory problems, pain. These risks, called the psychosocial risks, are considered new, even if they represent the same level of risk as, for instance, working with biological agents, Paula Franklin, senior researcher with the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) told EUobserver. \"These are risks just like any other risk at work,\" Franklin said, adding that \"there is indication that the problem is a lot bigger than what we have data for\". \"It is the tip of the iceberg and it is already very considerable,\" she stated. Overall, the costs of mental ill health is estimated to make up more than four percent of GDP across all EU member states (based on 2015 data), and the cost of work-related depression has been estimated at €620bn a year. The pandemic, nevertheless, has made things even worse. For frontline workers, people in the restaurant business, in hospitality, work has become more precarious. While for many others work routines have invaded homes, and people's private lives. Back to back online meetings for office workers mean there is no break in the workload. The health care sector in several EU countries suffers from staff shortages, which creates anxiety for employees in the sector. If there is not enough staff, workers cannot get a break. This creates a vicious circle with staff burning out, prompting an even bigger shortage of personnel. There is also a lot more seasonal and temporary work, which adds to the feeling of insecurity about income and about career expectations, increasing people's stress levels. \"We have to rethink how work is structured,\" Franklin argued, adding that \"up to 35 percent of depression in EU countries can be because of these work related factors.\" In Brussels, there is talk of increased burnout at EU institutions, but data is non-existent, because medical certificates for sick leave do not contain information on the diagnosis. When asked by EUobserver, the European Parliament said it offers its staff help lines, webinars and psychologists. The European Commission, for its part, said they do coaching of managers, trainings, awareness raising, and flexible working arrangements to help staff cope. Despite the fact that work-related mental health issues are on the rise, it is still a societal taboo, seen as a personal problem, rather than a systemic one. \"There is no question that work can make you mentally ill, yes it can,\" Franklin pointed out, arguing that the burden of \"getting better\" should not be solely on the worker. Prevention measures on the negative impacts often target the individual, such as workplace yoga or mindfulness training. However, as long as nothing changes structurally, for instance in the workload, those only put a burden on the individual who is already under stress, and bring no sustainable change. \"This is not an individual mental health issue,\" Franklin said, adding that \"some of these factors are beyond the individual's control, such as too much work, or too intensive work.\" \"You have to look at it systematically, what is it in the organisation that is making people ill,\" she added. There is no recent harmonised data on burnout in EU countries. A 2018 study by Belgium's Leuven University said that the countries with \"the highest burnout levels are predominantly found in eastern (Poland) and southeastern Europe\" (Western Balkans and Turkey), and countries with the lowest burnout scores are in northwestern Europe (the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland). In countries with poorer economic performance in terms of GDP, higher levels of burnout are observed, as well as in countries with a weak democracy and hierarchical countries. EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen promised a new initiative on mental health in her annual state of the European Union speech in September. It was the first mention of mental health in the history of state of the EU speeches, according to MEP Walsh, which she described as a \"victory\". EU health commissioner Stella Kyriakides, a Cypriot psychologist, told MEPs on Tuesday (18 October) in a debate about mental health that \"experts not surprisingly have warned of an approaching tsunami of mental health challenges\". She said the commission is planning \"several EU policies and actions\" during the summer. \"We need to improve our understanding mental health issues, and prioritise prevention and promotion of better mental health,\" the commissioner said, adding that \"improving access to mental health care\" is also part of the plan. MEP Walsh is pushing for an EU mental health year in 2024 and a psychosocial directive to make sure mental health is a part of the health and safety rules. A directive would also help create a more balanced protection access to the EU instead of the fragmentation of today. Workers are differently protected in different EU countries despite a 1989 EU regulation that says all workers should have the same minimum level of protection. The Eurofound report showed that in Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Spain, there is no policy basis addressing burnout. Walsh points out that EU health ministers have never met specifically to discuss mental health issues and she wants to change that. An EU mental health strategy, she said, is needed, especially considering the level of misinformation and hatred language around burnout. \"We need 27 EU ministers working collectively with experts and organisations, but not just in silo,\" Walsh told the parliament on Tuesday. \"Creating an EU mental health strategy is now needed more than ever,\" she added, \"and we need that strategy to be implemented in weeks not years\". The EU official who had experienced burnout said she was looking forward to going back to work, although she was panicking the first day. \"I'm still observing myself, I am not sure yet how I am doing,\" she said. She had to learn \"not to take things too seriously\", let go of her perfectionist instincts, let go of what others might think, and learn \"the power of saying no\". Now colleagues she has never been really close to, are coming to her for advice, for counselling. \"You can't understand it really, unless you go through it,\" she said.","contributors":[{"id":"eua4e15593","firstName":"Eszter","lastName":"Zalan"}],"publishDate":1666155901000,"section":[{"id":"508bf89c3a","title":"Health & Society"}],"articleType":[],"img":{"id":"fi90daf5b1","src":"https://files-production-saulx-eu-observer-production-en-ci-hyp-xx0.based.dev/fa3d22e0cb93cdfa1f8202473384aeef.jpg"}}],"order":{"mustRead":["ar18626db2","ard33cda50","ar76de3ba9","arfe6fbaf7","arb7fe6688","ar1eb43d53","ar83ab62d6","ar04066c98"]}},"c":12722649694368,"s":136627},"8117591503476":{"v":{"data":[]},"c":1765581648739,"s":11},"14179662864941":{"v":{"data":[{"headline":{"en":"Italy sells almost all its stake in world’s oldest bank"},"src":"https://www.ft.com/content/65fe3cc4-c8e7-4337-aae8-11ee602e5a60"},{"headline":{"en":"Au-delà du foot Match France-Israël ce jeudi soir au Stade de France : une rencontre sous haute sécurité"},"src":"https://www.liberation.fr/sports/football/match-france-israel-au-stade-de-france-une-rencontre-sous-haute-securite-20241113_VVLG4PNJEZGKTE5AVNHGVMGYZ4/"},{"headline":{"en":"US official charged over leak of Israel plan to attack Iran"},"src":"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62lvvqezn2o"},{"headline":{"en":"Far-right fake jobs trial: French prosecutors request Marine Le Pen be banned from running for public office"},"src":"https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/11/13/far-right-fake-jobs-trial-french-prosecutors-request-marine-le-pen-be-banned-from-election-to-office_6732729_7.html"},{"headline":{"en":"Italy’s Albania asylum deal has become a political disaster for Giorgia Meloni"},"src":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/14/italy-albania-asylum-deal-complete-failure-giorgia-meloni"},{"headline":{"en":"Russians accused of crimes offered choice - 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despite possible Trump White House"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-halve-military-aid-ukraine-despite-possible-trump-white-house-2024-07-17/"},{"headline":{"en":"Trump Tells ‘Lovely’ EU to Brace for Tariffs"},"src":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-17/trump-tells-lovely-eu-to-brace-for-tariffs"},{"headline":{"en":"EU imposes sanctions on five Israeli individuals and three entities"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-imposes-sanctions-five-israeli-individuals-three-entities-2024-07-15/"},{"headline":{"en":"Russia poised to block YouTube"},"src":"https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/russia-planning-block-youtube-ukraine-putin-q8s2hzm96"},{"headline":{"en":"Some EU states won't send ministers to presidency meetings in protest at Orban's Russia trip"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-eu-states-wont-send-ministers-presidency-meetings-protest-orbans-russia-2024-07-11/"},{"headline":{"en":"Disinformation networks ‘flooded’ X before EU elections, report says"},"src":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/12/disinformation-networks-social-media-x-france-germany-italy-eu-elections"},{"headline":{"en":"Hungary's Orban, a NATO outlier on Ukraine, talks 'peace mission' with Trump"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-hungarys-orban-set-meet-thursday-sources-say-2024-07-11/"},{"headline":{"en":"Finland to vote on turning back migrants crossing from Russia"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-vote-turning-back-migrants-crossing-russia-2024-07-12/"},{"headline":{"en":"Russia believed to be behind plot to assassinate Europe’s top defence boss"},"src":"https://www.ft.com/content/1b685d36-1981-4863-a868-b98d5f17cbe4"},{"headline":{"en":"International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Russia's Shoigu and Gerasimov"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/international-criminal-court-issues-arrest-warrant-russias-shoigu-gerasimov-2024-06-25/"},{"headline":{"en":"Antisemitic incidents in Europe rise as Gaza war rages, survey shows"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/antisemitic-incidents-europe-rise-gaza-war-rages-survey-shows-2024-07-11/"},{"headline":{"en":"China and Russia plot course for a new ‘Silk Road’ in the Arctic ice"},"src":"https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/china-and-russia-plot-course-for-ice-silk-road-in-the-arctic-rjbrclfk0"},{"headline":{"en":"Indirect deaths could put Gaza conflict death toll at over 186.000, Lancet study finds"},"src":"https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext"},{"headline":{"en":"Why Spain is Nato’s laggard on defence spending"},"src":"https://www.ft.com/content/5803ccb4-5d49-4331-bdbf-100d15cd6526"},{"headline":{"en":"The TikTok effect: How the app shaped political discourse during the Finnish European elections"},"src":"https://crossover.social/the-tiktok-effect-how-the-app-shaped-political-discourse-during-finnish-european-elections/"},{"headline":{"en":"Reform UK under pressure to prove all its candidates were real people"},"src":"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/08/reform-uk-under-pressure-to-prove-all-its-candidates-were-real-people"},{"headline":{"en":"The Bleak, Nihilistic Show Russians Can’t Stop Watching"},"src":"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/magazine/the-boys-word-russians.html"},{"headline":{"en":"Belarus frees veteran Lukashenko opponent from prison, rights group says"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-frees-veteran-lukashenko-opponent-prison-rights-group-says-2024-07-03/"},{"headline":{"en":"Insight: How Raiffeisen's bet on Russia took it to the brink"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-raiffeisens-bet-russia-took-it-brink-2024-07-04/"},{"headline":{"en":"German parliament set to impose tougher fines on unruly politicians"},"src":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/02/german-parliament-impose-tougher-fines-unruly-politicians"},{"headline":{"en":"UniCredit contests ECB demands to cut Russia risks in EU court"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/unicredit-seeks-eu-court-ruling-over-ecb-demand-cut-russia-risks-2024-07-01/"},{"headline":{"en":"Viktor Orbán to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy on maiden wartime trip to Ukraine"},"src":"https://www.ft.com/content/d89e9103-d4bc-4ab4-b1f0-0e8777f0aebc"},{"headline":{"en":"Latvian couple become first to register same-sex partnership under new law"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/latvian-couple-become-first-register-same-sex-partnership-under-new-law-2024-07-01/"},{"headline":{"en":"Kanye West visit is propaganda coup for Kremlin"},"src":"https://www.thetimes.com/article/kanye-west-visits-moscow-kremlin-russia-vladimir-putin-l3pj63csn"},{"headline":{"en":" How an 80s punk lyric became the rallying cry of French protests against the far right"},"src":"https://www.theguardian.com/music/article/2024/jun/28/procherie-francois-guillemot-berurier-noir-1985-national-rally"},{"headline":{"en":"Georgian parliament gives initial approval to sweeping curbs on LGBT rights"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/georgian-parliament-gives-initial-approval-sweeping-curbs-lgbt-rights-2024-06-27/"},{"headline":{"en":"Rome's Jews outraged after videos show antisemitism in Meloni's youth movement"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romes-jews-outraged-after-videos-show-antisemitism-melonis-youth-movement-2024-06-27/"},{"headline":{"en":"En marge du prêt russe au RN : 255 000 euros ont été versés en échange de positions pro-Poutine"},"src":"https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/270624/en-marge-du-pret-russe-au-rn-255-000-euros-ont-ete-verses-en-echange-de-positions-pro-poutine?utm_source=global&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SharingApp&xtor=CS3-5"},{"headline":{"en":"ECJ annuls sanctions on Dmitry Pumpyansky, the ex-chair of Russia's TMK"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ecj-annuls-sanctions-dmitry-pumpyansky-ex-chair-russias-tmk-2024-06-26/"},{"headline":{"en":"Russian exiles call for ‘assassination’ of Putin’s regime"},"src":"https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/russian-exiles-call-for-assassination-of-putins-regime-dzpxcgb0k"},{"headline":{"en":"Closed-door trial of US journalist Evan Gershkovich begins in Russia"},"src":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/26/evan-gershkovich-us-reporter-appears-court-closed-trial-russia"},{"headline":{"en":"New German citizens must declare Israel’s right to exist"},"src":"https://www.ft.com/content/56e6182c-4c00-433f-a43d-57ad131781a6"},{"headline":{"en":"Hungary Launches Probe Against Graft Watchdog in Orban Crackdown"},"src":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/hungary-launches-probe-against-graft-watchdog-in-orban-crackdown?srnd=good-business"},{"headline":{"en":"WikiLeaks' Julian Assange to be freed after pleading guilty to US espionage charge"},"src":"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wikileaks-assange-expected-plead-guilty-us-espionage-charge-document-says-2024-06-24/"},{"headline":{"en":"LGBT troops on Ukraine's front line fight homophobia at home 2 hours ago By Jean Mackenzie, BBC News, reporting from Kyiv"},"src":"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1140yv03po"},{"headline":{"en":"Denmark to Tax Emissions From Farmers in Pioneering Move"},"src":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-24/denmark-to-tax-emissions-from-farmers-in-pioneering-move?cmpid=BBD062524_BRUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240625&utm_campaign=brussels"},{"headline":{"en":"How Swedish gangs moved into the strawberry 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