Kelly isn't picked, but being on VP short list signals his rise to prominence

Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate Tuesday, ending a whirlwind vetting process that brought Arizona’s Sen. Mark Kelly into national prominence.

Harris’ campaign touted Walz as “a battle-tested leader who has an incredible track record of getting things done” in a text message she sent her Democratic supporters announcing her decision.

Kelly, D-Ariz., reiterated his support for the revamped ticket in a tweet without acknowledging he was under consideration to be part of it.

Harris and Walz “are going to move us forward. They’re already building a campaign to unite our country — and @GabbyGiffords and I are ready to do everything we can to help them win,” he said, referring to his wife.

Over six weeks that upended American politics, Kelly went from a senator with an unusually prominent biography to the emergency short list of vice presidential candidates in an election Democrats often cast as a struggle for democracy itself.

While Kelly won’t be running for vice president, his sudden rise as a top-tier contender means Arizona’s political landscape could still shift.

Kelly’s Senate term doesn’t expire until after the 2028 election. But if Harris defeats former President Donald Trump, he could be in line for a top administration post.

Kelly brought to the the vice presidential sweepstakes an unrivaled biography as a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut. His blunt criticism of border security under the Biden administration was seen as a way for Democrats to seek a reset on an issue where the public typically favors Republicans.

For now, Kelly is back to the role he was playing long before President Joe Biden exited the race. Kelly was a vocal supporter of the Biden-Harris ticket, and he now is become a prominent advocate for Harris and Walz.

VP contenders offered different tones and focus

As Harris became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden abandoned his reelection plans, Kelly became a fixture in a constantly shifting cast of vice presidential possibilities.

Walz rose in the final days of a compressed vetting period, with folksy appearances on TV that underscored an ability to relate Democratic policies, especially to those in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Walz seemed to be an unlikely contender even a week ago, in part because Minnesota is viewed as a safely Democratic state. By contrast, Kelly and Shapiro come from swing states, with Pennsylvania seen as a must-win for Harris.

Kelly and Shapiro seemed to take very different approaches to selling themselves.

Shapiro prominently ridiculed Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance, who accused Shapiro of mimicking former President Barack Obama’s speaking style.

“JD Vance is a total phony baloney,” Shapiro said with characteristic bluntness. “He is the most inorganic candidate I think I have ever seen on the national stage. He doesn’t know what he believes and that is why it is impossible for him to articulate a coherent message to the American people because he doesn’t believe it.”

Kelly leveled his own attacks on Vance, but they rested less on insults and were tied more to policy. After Vance’s 2021 comments likening Democrats to “childless cat ladies” resurfaced, Kelly said:

“It’s utterly ridiculous and obnoxious and wrong. What I really worry about is what he would do being one heartbeat away from the presidency.” Kelly then turned it into a question of Vance’s judgment on abortion rights.

Each man also faced personal questions about their pasts.

Shapiro, who is Jewish, faced new scrutiny over an essay he wrote while in college in 1995 that said, “Palestinians will not peacefully coexist” with Israel.  

Kelly, too, faced questions over the end of his first marriage in 2004. He was pressed over a restraining order from his then-wife, who has backed Kelly’s latest potential candidacy.

In the span of about a month, Kelly vaulted from a prominent, but relatively new, senator to someone faring better in at least one poll against former President Donald Trump than Biden.

Recent Arizona contenders for the White House

Kelly’s brush with a White House ticket was the first for an Arizonan since the late U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was the GOP presidential nominee in 2008. McCain also ran in 2000.

Former Vice President Dan Quayle, who has lived for years in retirement in Arizona, made a short-lived presidential run in 2000 as well.

Before that, former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, a Democrat, ran for president in 1988. Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz., was the Republican nominee in 1964.

How Kelly's visibility grew as a national political figure

Though Kelly is out of the running for VP, his future still could take a turn if Harris wins the White House.

He supported Biden’s bid for a second term even after the June 27 debate with Trump that startled the nation. Looking frail and confused, Biden’s performance sparked immediate calls for him to exit the race.

The next day, Kelly campaigned in Las Vegas with Harris still urging support for the Biden-Harris ticket.

On July 17, Kelly was among four Democrats who fared better than Biden against Trump in a poll from a Democratic-aligned group. The poll clearly was intended to convince Biden to quit the race, but it also raised Kelly’s profile as a possibility in a reshaped Democratic ticket.

That night, Kelly appeared on MSNBC attacking Vance. He twice backed the Biden-Harris team in that interview. He did so again in a social media post two days later.

On July 21, Biden relented and announced on social media that he would not seek reelection. He threw his support behind Harris, and, within a day, she had effectively secured the party’s nomination.

Kelly immediately became a VP possibility.

His resume checked all the boxes for VP consideration

In some ways, Kelly’s rise shouldn’t be surprising.

His biography has always stood out from most political contenders in any race. But the particular needs for Harris and her party at this moment also winnowed the field.

After concerns over Biden’s age, it meant that the party needed someone significantly younger. When Harris, who is Black and female, became the front runner, many presumed she needed to pick a white male as her VP.

Over the past century, Democrats have named a senator as the vice presidential nominee 20 of 25 times. The last time Democrats named a governor as a running mate was 100 years ago.

Extra value is usually given to candidates who come from swing states, bring special appeal on a key issue, or strike a bigger contrast with the Republicans.

Kelly was part of a small group that seemed to check all the boxes.

If Harris wins, will Kelly stay in the Senate?

Though he didn’t make the ticket, Kelly still could opt to work in a Harris administration — if there is one.

His background in the Navy and as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, for example, could make Kelly a contender for a military post, perhaps even secretary of defense.

His future prospects could have major implications for Arizona in the U.S. Senate.

Arizona’s current U.S. Senate race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake is the fifth straight election cycle for one of the state’s two seats.

Voters typically don't vote in a Senate race every two years becasue senators are elected to six-year terms.

But McCain’s 2018 death required the 2020 special election that put Kelly in the Senate in the first place. If Kelly leaves office in the next year, the state would have at least eight different U.S. senators since 2018.

It would also mean another special election for the Senate in 2026. That would mean Arizona would have a U.S. Senate election eight straight cycles spanning from 2016 through 2030.

In the past half-century, seven other states have had five straight Senate elections. None has had more than that.