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White demographic decline

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

White demographic decline is a decrease in the White populace numerically and or as a percentage of the total population in a city, state, subregion, or nation. It has been recorded in a number of countries and smaller jurisdictions. For example, according to national censuses, White Americans, White Canadians, White Latin Americans, and White people in the United Kingdom are in demographic decline in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the United Kingdom, respectively. White demographic decline can also be observed in other countries including Australia,[1] New Zealand,[2] South Africa,[3] Germany,[4] Spain, Italy,[5][6] France and Zimbabwe.[7]

Scholars have attempted to address subfactors and anticipated results of White demographic decline in relevant societies. The term majority minority has been used to designate an area where a decline, of what are nationally defined as Whites, has resulted in a former majority becoming a minority. Examples of this include parts of the United States and Brazil.[8][9] Other notable concepts include demographer Eric Kaufmann's theory of "Whiteshift", which predicts transforming classifications of Whiteness as mixed-race majorities emerge, and social psychologist Jennifer Richeson's research into racial shift conditions, which outline how White people's hostility to other racial groups increases in proportion to their awareness of a drop in White population share.

In recent decades, White demographic decline has become a political touchstone for far-right political groups, inspiring conspiracy theories and terrorist violence.[10][11][12][13] The politicization of White demographic decline has also manifested as anti-abortion,[14][15] and anti-immigrant sentiment.[13] Academic evidence indicates that immigration significantly contributes to the maintenance of economies, civic institutions, and population levels in places affected by White demographic decline, such as in the Southern United States.[16][17]

Overview

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Definition

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White demographic decline has been statistically observed by academics in relation to countries which conduct a national census and include a white racial or ethnic category. Notable experts and scholars of a multitude of fields of study have observed the demographic phenomenon of falling white demography.[18] These include anthropologists Leo Chavez,[19] Arizona State University's Luis Plascencia,[20] Rich Benjamin,[21] and University of Louisville's Steven Gardiner.[22] Demographers such as William H. Frey,[23] Eric Kaufmann,[24] Rogelio Sáenz,[25] Dudley L. Poston Jr.,[25] Ann Morning,[26] and David Coleman.[27]

Social geographers such as Loughborough University's Marco Antonsich,[28] and Syracuse University's Jamie Winders,[17] and political scientists Elliot Jager,[29] and Robert Pape,[30] have studied white demographic decline as a measurable and observable process. Historians Trevor Burnard,[31] and Mark Sedgwick[32] have published works defining the demographic process in various jurisdictions. While they suggest that the white population share is falling in the United States, sociologist Richard Alba[33] and demographer Dowell Myers[34] have stated that this decline is divisive and exaggerated somewhat by the census format. Nonetheless, many academics, such as Nicholas Lemann,[35] suggest the decline will affect national election results in the US.[36][37]

Demography in national censuses

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Various national demographic analyses measured a demographic decline of white populations, as defined by their local nation-based censuses.[38] Research conducted at the University of Minnesota has observed the phenomenon of a decrease in white population share within jurisdictions in Europe, North America and Oceania:[39]

According to the most recent U.S. census, the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking (US Census Bureau, 2018). This trend has been observed in other White-majority countries including Canada (Statistics Canada, 2017), the UK (Coleman, 2016), and New Zealand (Stats New Zealand, 2004).

Regarding white populations internationally, and particularly in the Western world, demographer Eric Kaufmann has suggested that "In an era of unprecedented white demographic decline it is absolutely vital for it to have a democratic outlet."[24][40] While sociologist Richard Alba believes this decline is exaggerated by the racial classification system used in the United States Census,[33] regarding the 2020 census, demographer William H. Frey has written:[23]

The Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups. The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size.

Statistical terms

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Majority minority

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Main article: Majority minority

As well as referencing ethno-cultural, linguistic, and religious demography, the term 'majority minority' has consistently been used in racial contexts in media and academia, and specifically to identify the demographic decline of white populations. In 2010, it was reported by the BBC how "America's two largest states – California and Texas – became 'majority-minority' states (with an overall minority population outnumbering the white majority)" between 1998 and 2004.[8]

Demographers Rogelio Sáenz and Dudley L. Poston Jr. have studied existing states which have gained white minorities in the 21st century, and how, from 2017 onwards, an ongoing falling white population-share predicts further US states to follow this trend: "nonwhites account for more than half of the populations of Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, New Mexico, Texas and Nevada. In the next 10 to 15 years, these half-dozen 'majority-minority' states will likely be joined by as many as eight other states where whites now make up less than 60 percent of the population." From their research, Sáenz and Poston Jr expect the United States to have progressed to overall white minority demography by 2044.[25] Regarding various projected majority minority scenarios across the Western world, in a 2018 article for the London School of Economics, academics Eric Kaufmann and Matthew Goodwin wrote:[41]

The ethnic make-up of many western countries is changing, and in countries previously seen as having 'white' majorities that past predominance is declining. In the United States, Canada and New Zealand, the 'majority-minority' point will arrive around 2050, while in western Europe it is projected to occur towards the end of the century. Some commentators have asked if this change may lead to a growing reaction or 'white backlash'. All else being equal, we suggest that the answer may be yes.

An example from the developing world includes Brazil which, due to a long-term demographic decline of white Brazilians, has been designated as a majority-minority country in relation to the South American nation's racial classification of whiteness.[9]

Racial shift condition

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In their widely cited research, professors Jennifer Richeson and Maureen Craig produced a 2014 study on white racial shift conditions.[42] White people who were informed of their diminishing demographic share of the population displayed more racial hostility to perceived external racial groups.[43] Pacific Standard described the research as how "the coming racial shift evokes higher levels of both explicit and implicit racism on the part of white Americans".[44] In analysis of the study, sociologist Mary C. Waters concurred that the portrayal in media of falling white demography was linked with subsequent discrimination against non-whites.[45]

Whiteshift

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Main article: Whiteshift

Demographer Eric Kaufmann's theory of whiteshift predicts that as white demographic decline gradually results in white majorities becoming minorities (sometimes called a majority minority scenario) that a broader and more inclusive classification of white people will occur.[46][47] A professor of politics at Birkbeck College, he suggests that, given the appropriate societal conditions, both conservatives and cosmopolitans may be able to observe whiteshift as a positive factor.[48] In this regard, political analyst Michael Barone believes there may be "cautious optimism" that the social phenomenon can progress in a politically stable form.[49]

Analysing Kaufmann's thesis, historian Michael Burleigh has used examples of whiteshift such as Western politicians Iain Duncan Smith, Geert Wilders and Ted Cruz, who have some degree of what might be considered non-white or ethnic minority ancestry in their respective countries.[50] Demographer Dowell Myers has also referenced Cruz and Megan Markle as examples, claiming that "whites are indeed in numerical decline" in the United States, when judged upon a criterion of exclusively European ancestry.[34]

Demography by regions

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Europe

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United Kingdom

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White British proportion of the population from 2001 to 2011

In 2013, Demos published research analyzing the 2011 United Kingdom census. The UK-based think tank detailed how "departing White British are replaced by immigration or by the natural growth of the minority population. Over time, the end result of this process is a spiral of White British demographic decline".[51]

Demographer David Coleman has produced studies which predict that the cities of Leicester and Birmingham will join London in their majority minority status during the 2020s, with regard to the demographic decline of White people in Britain.[52] Coleman estimates that by 2056 the trend of a declining share of the white populace will result in the United Kingdom having an overall white minority.[27][53]

North America

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Canada

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In 2017, John Ibbitson, Canadian writer and columnist for The Globe and Mail, argued that as the population becomes more evenly split between white Canadians and visible minorities, it could lead to heightened political polarization and social challenges. He suggested that Canada will need to navigate these changes carefully to ensure social cohesion and address the concerns of a diverse population.[54]

Writing in 2019, journalist Margaret Wente has suggested that "nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts." Wente argues that with significant projected decline of the white share of the population in Canada, the country will have to address reactionary populist politics.[55]

Right-wing populist parties, such as the People's Party of Canada (PPC), have particularly benefited from the increase in anti-immigrant sentiment, with the PPC gaining nearly 800,000 votes in the 2021 Canadian federal election.[56]

United States

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White Americans of one race (or alone) from 1960 to 2020. Some changes may be due to changing self-identification patterns rather than demographic changes.

While non-Hispanic White Americans under 18 in the U.S. are already a minority as of 2020, it is projected that non-Hispanic Whites overall will become a minority within the US by 2045.[38]

Political impact

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The political right has been reported to be most inclined to reference white demographic decline in a political context,[57] with 2022 communication-research outlining how fears of white-related demography are often weaponised.[58] Max Hui Bai, a scholar working within Stanford University's Polarization and Social Change Lab, has explored "how people react to the numerical decline of white populations" across the Western world.[59]

Sociologist and demographer Ann Morning has suggested that representations of female multiraciality have been used in media to show evidence of "racial progress" and "bridging racial divides", while also providing a function which "serves to soften the blow of White demographic decline".[26] Professor Trevor Burnard has discussed how "white demographic decline" occurred in the population of the colony of Jamaica between 1655 and 1780, stating that his research "presents hard data on white mortality in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Jamaica" and its political implications.[31] In modern times, journalist Sabrina Tavernise has reported that since the 2020 US Census, regarding white demography, social scientists have pointed out that the "declining share of white people as a part of the population has become a part of American politics – as a worry on the right and a cause for optimism on the left."[18]

Africa

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South Africa

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Scholars Hermann Giliomee and Lawrence Schlemmer have credited, among other factors, international pressure on the apartheid government and "a white demographic decline" for facilitating the process of negotiations to end apartheid in South Africa.[60]

Europe

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Adela Fofiu of Babeș-Bolyai University has noted how right-wing organizations and outlets in Romania politicize white demographic decline, attempting to associate it with concepts such as the "Islamization of Europe" or "Gypsification" of the country, the latter of which refers to the Romani people in Romania.[61] In 2018 analysis, the Southern Poverty Law Center explored how right-wing extremism in Europe attempts to utilize the continents demographic decline and the rise of immigration from Arab and or Middle Eastern countries for political gain.[62] A professor at Loughborough University, Marco Antonsich's research in Italy suggests that "demographic change and the decline of white majorities" provides space for immigrant communities to" justify their national belonging and to rewrite the nation".[28]

United Kingdom

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In 2018, Eric Kaufmann wrote a piece for the New Statesman on the demographic decline of White British people within the United Kingdom, stating that "Three-quarters of people in Britain in 2150 will, like myself, be mixed-race." and highlighted political consequences of such a transformation taking place:[63]

When whites can't express their sense of ethnic loss, they turn to the seemingly more "respectable" alternatives of demonising Muslims, criticising immigrants who live in minority neighbourhoods, or voting for Brexit (a result of diverting concerns over ethnic change into hatred of the acceptably "white" EU). Few things have contributed more to today's populist blowback than the demographic blind spot in Western political thought.

In 2020, Nick Timothy, a former Downing Street Chief of Staff, addressed societal consequences of the ongoing demographic decline of white people in the United Kingdom:[64]

This is a difficult issue to understand and address, but the anxiety is real. White people are as attached to their ethnic and cultural identity as any other group and, faced with the reality of rapid demographic decline, many feel a sense of loss.

North America

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Canada

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Writing in 2019, journalist Margaret Wente has suggested that "nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts." Wente argues that with significant projected decline of the white share of the population in Canada, the country will have to address reactionary populist politics.[55]

United States

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In 1998 research, Fordham University professor Tanya K. Hernandez outlined the potential for multiracial Americans to have their representative US census category "co-opted by the larger society as a mechanism for constructing a buffer class to maintain White privilege, in the midst of a growing concern with the demographic decline of White U.S. residents".[65] Samuel P. Huntington's 2004 book Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity addressed the emerging population change in the United States. In an analysis on Huntington's treatise, political demographer Eric Kaufmann wrote:[66]

Finally, Huntington considers the possibility of a white nationalist response to the changes taking place. He says that white nativism is a "plausible" response to white demographic decline, the cosmopolitan defection of the white elite and the fading power of the Anglo-Protestant core.

By 2010, the Southern Poverty Law Center's 1,000 organizations listed within their "hate" and "nativist" archives predominantly involved politics referencing white demography. Arizona State University anthropologist Luis Plascencia wrote that "a common thread in many of these groups is the concern with the demographic decline of 'white' individuals".[20] In 2009, Stanford University professor Eamonn Callan observed that:[67]

The slow but inexorable demographic decline of white Americans to the status of one minority among others has begun to register in popular consciousness, making it harder for anyone to suppose that American identity could still be white identity.

In the mid-2010s, white people's demographic decline became increasingly associated with politics in relation to the 2016 presidential election.[68][69] Donald Trump's policy positions and rhetoric were seen by some scholars as giving an outlet to anxiety based upon this changing white demography.[70] Conservative journalist Christopher Caldwell argued that perceived cultural celebration of the process had contributed to the political energies supporting candidate Trump. Caldwell wrote that "At the same time, white demographic decline has been accompanied in many quarters with official exultation. The promise is not to enrich white America with new ethnicities but to replace it."[71] Research has predicted a rise in rhetoric regarding issues such as protectionism among white Americans, and particularly white evangelicals, in proportion with the ongoing percentage-share reduction of whites.[72] This demographic decline has also been utilized by extremist commentators, such as explicit supporters of the "alt-right" or white supremacist movements.[72][73]

In this regard, research in historian Mark Sedgwick's Key Thinkers of the Radical Right indicated that elements of the extremist right-wing believed that Trump's proposed policies, such as the Trump travel ban or the wall, would "slow white demographic decline".[32] Similarly, Aurora University professor Faith Agostinone-Wilson's On the Question of Truth in the Era of Trump describes these types of political aspirations as "an Americanized version of salvation, where White demographic decline is halted and the country is purged of the Other".[74] Anthropologist Rich Benjamin has suggested that the "Trump administration has aimed its rhetoric at a slice of aggrieved white Americans who are panicked about their demographic decline",[21] while political scientist Elliot Jager has written:[29]

Trump directs his appeal at disenfranchised working-class Americans by telling them that he'll "make America great again", intimating that he'll reverse the demographic decline of whites by "humanely" deporting 11 million mostly Hispanic, illegal aliens; will protect the homeland by banning Muslims from entering, and will build an impenetrable barrier on the Mexican border.

After the inauguration of President Trump, a March 2017 New Republic article examined Chief Strategist Steve Bannon's advocacy for the 1973 book The Camp of the Saints, which it described as "an explicitly racist novel, saturated in deep fear at the prospect of white demographic decline".[75]

In the 2020s, study of American politics increasingly factored in the demographic reduction in analysing the Republican Party's electoral success and future strategy. For example, in analysis of the 2020 presidential election results, University of Melbourne professor Timothy J. Lynch suggests "white demographic decline need not spell disaster for the GOP. Despite his dog-whistle racism, Trump performed better than expected among Black voters."[36] In relation to the party's future direction, UCLA's political scientist Gary Segura notes that "Republicans nationally receive 85 percent of their votes from white voters by capturing between 55 and 60 percent of their ballots in each election", adding that "with the demographic decline of white voters, even 60 percent of that cohort will be a poor start when it comprises just two-thirds of the electorate in 2024".[37] Professor Nicholas Lemann also argues that high motivation and corresponding turnout from the Republican Party's supporter base would be required to offset the ongoing demographic decline of whites by the 2024 election.[35]

Interviewed by Jeffrey Goldberg in 2020, the director of the documentary film White Noise proposed that the decline of whites had become the most significant driving force in the politics of the US. Daniel Lombroso stated "There is a deep-seated fear of white demographic decline in this country, and obviously in Europe. And I think that is now the defining fault line in American politics".[76] Brittany Farr, a Sharswood Fellow at Penn Law, suggests that reporting on US Census results (regarding falling white demography) by journalistic outlets, such as the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, are communicating "a sense of inevitability with respect to white demographic decline".[77]

Academic study on reactions
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In the United States, responses to the demographic decline of white people have been studied with regard to its affect on the political ideologies of white populations, including recording individual reactions to specific issues, such as welfare, terrorism or ethnic group preference.[78][79] Sociologists Bart Bonikowski and Yueran Zhang note that:[80]

One major source of perceived racial threat is demographic change. Experimental studies have shown that when exposed to information about white demographic decline or increased racial diversity, white respondents express more negative attitudes towards other racial groups (Craig and Richeson 2014b; Enos 2014; Outten et al. 2012)

A March 2020 research article found that whites in the US were more likely to expand classification of whiteness to include white Latin Americans "when their privileged social status is threatened, for example, by the prospect of numeric decline".[81] July 2020 research showed that white Americans who are informed of the projected minority status of whites in the United States are more likely to support the torture of terrorist suspects.[82]

2021 United States Capitol attack
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In 2021, political scientist Robert Pape identified that of the 716 people charged or arrested for storming the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., they had travelled predominantly "from counties where the white share of the population is declining fastest".[30] In the aftermath of the attack, Tech Against Terrorism published evidence that white demographic decline was being used as a statistical example by the far right to radicalize Trump supporters.[83][84]

Extremist exploitation of demography

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Anti-abortion movement

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In Katha Pollitt's 2015 book Pro, she theorizes that a lower fertility rate for white women, as compared to black and brown women, might explain the support for the anti-abortion movement.[a] [85][14] Hampshire College professor Marlene Fried's research suggests Pollitt exposed the "underlying agenda of the antiabortion movement", including concerns about white demographic decline, conservative views, anti-feminism, and "outright misogyny".[15]

Anti-immigration politics

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University of Louisville's anthropology professor Steven Gardiner has proposed how:[22]

The decline in white fertility, however, is only a small part of the story. The narrative of white demographic decline is being written, primarily, in the language of immigration. It is only since Congress passed the Immigration and Naturalization Act Amendments of 1965 that American racial and ethnic demographics have taken the turn sketched above (Office of Immigration Statistics 2004, 5). Passed during the Johnson Administration, during the height of the Civil Rights era, the 1965 Act repealed the most blatantly racist aspects of the Immigration Act of 1924. It abolished the national origins quotas which had, quite intentionally, limited non-white and non-European immigration to the United States.

Based on the effect of immigration on white demography, academic Jamie Winders has written how anti-immigrant sentiment is "grounded more in rhetoric than logic and often operates outside the boundaries of what actual research shows." Winders, a professor of geography at Syracuse University, notes that, for example: "In rural communities in the South, immigration often keeps smaller towns afloat, maintaining local schools, populations, and economies in the face of white demographic decline."[17] In 2020, research from University of Guadalajara's Alejandro Canales confirmed similar findings in the southern US. Canales, an expert on migration and population, wrote:[86]

The current case of California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada are a clear indication of what we are affirming. In all of these states the traditional demographic supremacy of non-Hispanic white people practically has been diluted by the influence of Mexican and Latin-American immigration.

Conspiracy theories

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Main articles: Great Replacement, Kalergi Plan, and White genocide conspiracy theory

Scholars have studied how the demographic decline of white people, as well as how the portrayal of it within different types of media, have contributed towards adherence to racist and disproven conspiracy theories. Harvard University fellow José Pedro Zúquete has written that:[87]

For many years in the American extreme right subculture a putative Jewish conspiracy - reified by the notion of ZOG or Zionist Occupation Government - was often invoked to explain the demographic decline of whites in America.

In 2019, scholar Monica Toft expanded on the emergence of nativist politics and conspiracy theory advocacy in relation to the demographic phenomenon, stating that "The 'why now' of white nativism is due to decades of demographic decline for white Americans combined with a serious decline in public education standards that leads to unwarranted nostalgia and openness to conspiracy theories."[13] Academic Robert Pape has suggested that one of the conspiracy theories which weaponizes falling white population-share is the Great Replacement.[30]

Terrorism

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Main article: Right-wing terrorism

The Combating Terrorism Center, which is an academic institution within the United States Military Academy, has published research which recognizes anxiety regarding white demographic decline as an ongoing contributing motivation to terrorism in the Western world. An example of this was observed in the Christchurch mosque attacks in New Zealand.[10] Mark Durie argues that the Christchurch terrorist intended to frame the demographic decline of white people as a "crisis" which would "incite conflict so that whites will be compelled to awaken, radicalise and grow strong." Durie, a linguistics and theology scholar, wrote: "We need to understand this ideology, not to give it a platform, but to learn and to equip ourselves to stand against such hatred."[11] In August 2019, a man arrested for threatening to attack people at a Jewish community center in Ohio had been found to have appeared in a documentary speaking about white demographic decline in the United States and Europe.[12]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Australia census: Five takeaways from a changing country". BBC News. June 27, 2017.
  2. ^ "Population projected to become more ethnically diverse | Stats NZ". www.stats.govt.nz.
  3. ^ "South Africa's white population continues to shrink".
  4. ^ Mitchell, Travis (November 29, 2017). "The Growth of Germany's Muslim Population".
  5. ^ "White Europeans: An endangered species?". Yale Daily News. February 27, 2008.
  6. ^ "Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition". JSTOR 20058898.
  7. ^ "Zimbabwe's whites fear vote will change little". Reuters. March 24, 2008 – via www.reuters.com.
  8. ^ a b Iwan Morgan (23 December 2010). "Why the US outstrips Europe for population growth". BBC.
  9. ^ a b Hope Yen (March 17, 2013). "Rise of Latino population blurs US racial lines". Associated Press. Despite being a nation of immigrants, America's tip to a white minority has never occurred in its 237-year history and will be a first among the world's major post-industrial societies. Brazil, a developing nation, has crossed the threshold to "majority-minority" status; a few cities in France and England are near, if not past that point.
  10. ^ a b Graham Macklin (July 2019). "The Christchurch Attacks: Livestream Terror in the Viral Video Age". In Paul Cruickshank (ed.). CTC Sentinel. Vol. 12. Combating Terrorism Center. p. 21. Whether Tarrant was conscious of it or not, the title of his manifesto, 'The Great Replacement', which encapsulated his fears about white demographic decline, derived from French anti-immigration writer Renaud Camus, to whom the phrase is commonly attribut-ed, though the basic idea has a far longer historical lineage.
  11. ^ a b Mark Durie (31 March 2019). "How The Christchurch Killer's Anti-Humanist Ideology". Quadrant. Those who think like him, in Nietzschian fashion, 'worship strength'. For such as Tarrant, the will to dominate, exercised by any means, is necessary and noble. Tarrant's solution to his crisis of white demographic decline is to incite conflict so that whites will be compelled to awaken, radicalise and grow strong. This is what his attack in Christchurch was all about.
  12. ^ a b Dakin Andone; Amir Vera; Eliott C. McLaughlin (August 19, 2019). "Man accused of threatening an Ohio Jewish center declared himself a white nationalist in a documentary, police say". CNN. In the documentary, Reardon tells an interviewer that he doesn't consider himself a neo-Nazi, but he is a white nationalist and a member of the alt-right. 'I want a homeland for white people, and I think every race should have a homeland', Reardon said. He went on to say there's a 'demographic decline' going on not only in the US, but in Europe as well.
  13. ^ a b c Monica Toft (January 11, 2019). "White right? How demographics is changing US politics". Salon.
  14. ^ a b Pollitt, Katha (2015). Pro: Reclaiming Abortion Rights. Picador. ISBN 978-1250072665. In theory, perhaps, opposition to abortion need not be linked to anti-feminism, shaming of sexually active girls and single women, fears of white demographic decline and conservative views of marriage and sexuality, or outright misogyny.
  15. ^ a b Marlene Fried (2015). "Review: A Positive Social Good". Women's Review of Books. Vol. 32. Old City Publishing. pp. 3–5. "She exposes the underlying agenda of the antiabortion movement, its “anti-feminism, shaming of sexually active girls and single women, fears of white demographic decline and conservative views of marriage and sexuality, or outright misogyny.”
  16. ^ Frey, William H. (2018). Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. p. 2. ISBN 9780815732853. [A]s this book illustrates, a growingly diverse, globally connected minority population will be absolutely necessary to sustain the aging American labor force with vitality and to sustain populations in many parts of the country that are facing population declines.
  17. ^ a b c Jamie Winders (2011). "Representing the Immigrant". In Robert Brinkmann; Graham A. Tobin (eds.). Southeastern Geographer: Innovations in Southern Studies. The University of North Carolina Press. ISBN 978-0807882870. In rural communities in the South, immigration often keeps smaller towns afloat, maintaining local schools, populations, and economies in the face of white demographic decline.
  18. ^ a b Sabrina Tavernise (August 13, 2021). "Behind the Surprising Jump in Multiracial Americans, Several Theories". The New York Times. Declining share of white people as a part of the population has become a part of American politics — as a worry on the right and a cause for optimism on the left.
  19. ^ Leo Chavez (2021). "Fear of White Replacement: Latina Fertility, White Demographic Decline, and Immigration Reform". In Kathleen Belew; Ramon A. Gutierrez (eds.). A Field Guide to White Supremacy. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0520382527.
  20. ^ a b Plascencia, Luis F.B. (2013). "Attrition Through Enforcement and the Elimination of a "Dangerous Class"". In Lisa Magaña; Erik Lee (eds.). Latino Politics and Arizona's Immigration Law SB 1070 (Immigrants and Minorities, Politics and Policy). Springer Publishing. p. 119. ISBN 978-1461402954.
  21. ^ a b Rich Benjamin (July 19, 2019). "Trump's race-baiting hasn't produced many policy wins, but that was never the point". Los Angeles Times.
  22. ^ a b Steven L. Gardiner (2004). "The More Things Change: Immigration, Demographics and the Rise of White Identity Politics in America" (PDF). University of Memphis. pp. 6–7.
  23. ^ a b Frey, William H. (July 1, 2020). "The nation is diversifying even faster than predicted, according to new census data". Brookings Institution.
  24. ^ a b Isaac Chotiner (April 30, 2019). "A Political Scientist Defends White Identity Politics". The New Yorker.
  25. ^ a b c Dudley L. Poston Jr.; Rogelio Sáenz (May 25, 2019). "Demographic trends spell the end of the white majority in 2044". Associated Press. Census Bureau projections show that the U.S. population will be "majority-minority" sometime between 2040 and 2050. Our research suggests that this will happen around 2044. Indeed, in 2020, there are projected to be more nonwhite children than white children in the U.S.
  26. ^ a b Janet Xu; Aliya Saperstein; Ann Morning; Sarah Iverson (1 October 2021). "Gender, Generation, and Multiracial Identification in the United States". Demography. Duke University Press. Less noted are the roles that the feminization and sexualization of multiraciality play in this post-racial narrative, even though some scholars have argued that femininized representation serves to soften the blow of White demographic decline (Bost 2003:2).
  27. ^ a b David Coleman (2010), "Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006–2056", Population and Development Review, vol. 36, Wiley Online Library, pp. 441–486
  28. ^ a b Marco Antonsich (January 28, 2021). "The diversity continuum: Blurring the boundaries between internal and external others among Italian children of migrants". Loughborough University.
  29. ^ a b Jager, Elliot (April 9, 2016). "Should Jews worry about Trump?". The Jerusalem Post.
  30. ^ a b c Robert A. Pape (6 January 2022). "The Jan. 6 Insurrectionists Aren't Who You Think They Are". Foreign Policy. These facts dovetail with a popular right-wing conspiracy theory called the "great replacement." ... that liberal leaders are deliberately engineering white demographic decline through immigration policy.
  31. ^ a b Trevor Burnard (April 2019), "The countrie continues sicklie': white mortality in Jamaica, 1655-1780", Studies in the Social History of Medicine, vol. 12, Society for the Social History of Medicine, pp. 45–72
  32. ^ a b Sedgwick, Mark (2019). Key Thinkers of the Radical Right: Behind the New Threat to Liberal Democracy. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0190877590. Trump's economic protectionist, anti-immigration platform, from building the wall to the 'Muslim ban', represent measures that, Johnson believes, will slow white demographic decline, 'giving us a few extra decades before we are a minority in our homeland'. Trump is not the 'last chance' for whites 'but he is the last chance for the United States of America', he argues.
  33. ^ a b Richard Alba (January 6, 2017). "The U.S. is becoming more racially diverse. But Democrats may not benefit". The Washington Post. To begin with, the census data that these forecasts are based on exaggerate the extent of white demographic decline; even the prediction of a majority-minority society is not guaranteed. The reason lies in the census misclassifications of a fast-growing group of young Americans from ethno-racially mixed backgrounds.
  34. ^ a b Dowell Myers (May 19, 2018). "The demise of the white majority is a myth". The Washington Post. These stories of white decline obscure the ongoing changes to America's color line, and they serve only to divide. Fortunately, the white American public seems far more content with the more inclusive future that is actually destined to emerge.
  35. ^ a b Lemann, Nicholas (October 23, 2020). "The Republican Identity Crisis After Trump". The New Yorker. It would require extremely high motivation among Trump's base-- mainly exurban or rural, actively religious, and not highly educated-- along with a strong appeal to affluent whites ... in the Trump heartland, he could compensate, at least in part, for the demographic decline of white voters.
  36. ^ a b Timothy J. Lynch (November 9, 2020). "What's next for the Republicans after Trump?". University of Melbourne.
  37. ^ a b Segura, Gary (2012). "The Browning of America". Democracy.
  38. ^ a b Population and Development Review, Wiley Online Library, March 12, 2020, A fortiori in the existing circumstances of white demographic decline. (On white decline in the United States, see the article by Kenneth M. Johnson in this issue.) ... The US Census Bureau's assessment of when America will become 'majority minority' is an evident case in point. For the country as a whole, the currently projected year is 2045; for the under-18 population, 2020. But aside from the absurd degree of precision, the calculation ignores the blurring of ethnic boundaries that inevitably takes place—in particular, 'whiteshift'.
  39. ^ Hui Bai; Christopher M. Federico (2020), White and Minority Demographic Shifts, Intergroup Threat, and Right-Wing Extremism, University of Minnesota: PsyArXiv
  40. ^ "Taking White Interests Seriously?". Hannah Arendt Center for Politics and Humanities. May 26, 2019.
  41. ^ Eric Kaufmann; Matthew Goodwin (25 October 2018). "Rising ethnic diversity in the West may fuel a (temporary) populist right backlash". London School of Economics.
  42. ^ "Trump understands what many miss: people don't make decisions based on facts". Vox Media. February 8, 2017. In the 'racial shift' condition, white study participants read about how by 2050, minorities will represent the majority of people in the United States. In the control condition, participants read about a neutral subject. Those who read about demographic change expressed less warm feelings toward minorities.
  43. ^ More Diverse Yet Less Tolerant? How the Increasingly Diverse Racial Landscape Affects White Americans Racial Attitudes (Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin ed.), SAGE Publications, 2014, Perceived threat to Whites' societal status mediated the effects of the racial shift information on explicit racial attitudes. These results suggest that rather than ushering in a more tolerant future, the increasing diversity of the nation may instead yield intergroup hostility. Implications for intergroup relations and media framing of the racial shift are discussed.
  44. ^ "Notion of Minority-Majority Nation Exacerbates White Racism". Pacific Standard. March 18, 2014.
  45. ^ "Why the Announcement of a Looming White Minority Makes Demographers Nervous". The New York Times. November 22, 2018. Their findings, first published in 2014, showed that white Americans who were randomly assigned to read about the racial shift were more likely to report negative feelings toward racial minorities than those who were not. They were also more likely to support restrictive immigration policies and to say that whites would likely lose status and face discrimination in the future.
  46. ^ Hynek Pallas (June 30, 2019). "Don't take away racism". Göteborgs-Posten.
  47. ^ Fraser Myers (February 25, 2020). "The dangerous war on 'whiteness'". Spiked. Bestselling books talk of White Fragility and Dying of Whiteness. Political upheavals are said to be driven by Whiteshift.
  48. ^ "Event details". York Festival of Ideas. 6 June 2019. Author and political scientist Eric Kaufmann explains why one of the most crucial challenges of our time is to enable conservatives as well as cosmopolitans to view whiteshift as a positive development.
  49. ^ Michael Barone (May 20, 2019). "Michael Barone: Will 'whiteshift' save America from ethnic strife?". Omaha World-Herald. Will Kaufmann's optimistic "whiteshift" scenario ever happen? The current political brouhaha is discouraging, but our history provides grounds for cautious optimism.
  50. ^ Michael Burleigh. "Majority Report" (Issue 470 ed.). Literary Review.
  51. ^ "White Britons 'In Retreat' From Minority Areas". Sky News. 6 May 2013.
  52. ^ Coleman, David (November 17, 2010). "When Britain becomes 'majority minority'". Prospect. Outside London, Leicester and the City of Birmingham are both expected to become 'majority minority' some time in the 2020s.
  53. ^ Hymas, Charles (May 12, 2023). "White British children 'could be minority in schools within 40 years'". The Telegraph – via www.telegraph.co.uk.
  54. ^ "Canadian Immigration and Demographics". National Post. March 15, 2023. The article discusses the significant shifts in Canada's immigration patterns and demographics. It highlights projections that by 2041, up to half of Canadians could identify as a visible minority. The demographic changes are expected to impact various aspects of Canadian society, including political dynamics and urban development.
  55. ^ a b "Can Canada avoid a populist revolt?". The Globe and Mail. February 8, 2019. The nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts. These revolts are linked directly to immigration, as Eric Kaufmann argues in his deeply researched new book, Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities. In Canada, the demographic shift will be huge. Today about 20 per cent of Canadians are visible minorities. But in 90 years, only about 20 per cent of Canadians will be white
  56. ^ "The PPC Got More Than 800,000 Votes, and That Should Worry All of Us". Maclean's. January 15, 2023. The article analyzes the significant support received by the People's Party of Canada (PPC) in the 2021 federal election, highlighting the party's gain of over 800,000 votes. It discusses the implications of this support in the context of rising anti-immigrant sentiment and the potential impact on Canadian politics and society.
  57. ^ Sophie McBain (July 2021). "The baby bust: How a declining birth rate will reshape the world - We are now facing a demographic winter that will transform the way we live". New Statesman. The political right is the most likely to express – and weaponise – concern about falling birth rates, which can stir racist fears of white demographic decline, ethno-nationalist anxiety over dwindling power
  58. ^ Xinyi Zhang; Mark Davis (April 2022). "Transnationalising reactionary conservative activism: A multimodal critical discourse analysis of far-right narratives online". Communication Research and Practice. Routledge. stoking fears of white demographic decline and cultural displacement amid growing concerns about the loss of white privilege among European Christian men
  59. ^ Karina Kloos (September 28, 2021). "Stanford Impact Labs Sponsors Postdocs to Work on Racial and Gender Bias, Polarization, and Governance". Stanford University. Society as it changes in an inter-group context, including how people react to the numerical decline of white populations, the growth of Muslim populations, and how that can shape mass political behaviors.
  60. ^ Giliomee, Hermann; Schlemmer, Lawrence (1990). From Apartheid to Nation Building. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0195705508. Forces propelling the change process ... a white demographic decline, growing black militancy, foreign pressure, changes in the Afrikaner class composition, and the fiscal crisis of the South African state.
  61. ^ Adela Fofiu (2014). "Stories of a White Apocalypse on the Romanian Internet". In Veronica Watson; Deirdre Howard-Wagner; Lisa Spanierman (eds.). Unveiling Whiteness in the Twenty-First Century: Global Manifestations, Transdisciplinary Interventions. Lexington Books. ISBN 978-0739192962. Of particular and recurring discussion on the blog were the demographic decline of white people, the purported ... Islamization of Europe, and Gypsification ... Much of the content supported the position that a conspiracy existed to bring about the downfall of the white race ... A Romanian women gives birth on average to 1.3 children, a Romani women - 3 children. What will Romania look like in 2050?
  62. ^ Barthélemy, Hélène (February 14, 2018). "How to write history like an Identitarian". Southern Poverty Law Center. They also attempt to unify a youth crippled by boredom in an unfulfilling consumerist society by enlisting them in a civilizational quest: the defense of Europe, described as under siege by immigration, 'Islamization' and white demographic decline.
  63. ^ Kaufmann, Eric (2018). "White majorities feel threatened in an age of mass migration – and calling them racist won't help". New Statesman.
  64. ^ Timothy, Nick (2014). Remaking One Nation: The Future of Conservatism. Polity. ISBN 978-1509539178.
  65. ^ Tanya K. Hernandez (1998). "Multiracial Discourse: Racial Classifications in an Era of Color-blind Jurisprudence blind Jurisprudence". Fordham University.
  66. ^ Eric Kaufmann (July 24, 2004). "Ethnic America". Prospect.
  67. ^ Eamonn Callan (2009). "Democratic Patriotism and Multicultural Education". In Michael S. Katz; Susan Verducci; Gert Biesta (eds.). Education, Democracy and the Moral Life. Springer Publishing. p. 64. ISBN 978-9048120765.
  68. ^ Sam Roudman (November 1, 2016). "Pat Buchanan is 'Delighted to Be Proven Right' by 2016 Election". New York. There's a lot that's been made in this election about Trump's coalition, about the demographic decline of White America.
  69. ^ Rebecca Barrett-Fox (November 2018). "A King Cyrus President: How Donald Trump's Presidency Reasserts Conservative Christians' Right to Hegemony". Humanity & Society. Vol. 42. SAGE Publications. pp. 502–522. That this movement has gained power even amid continuing demographic decline of white American Christians and waning U.S. global hegemony is only further evidence for them of God's hand in the 2016 election and thus God's approval of such trades.
  70. ^ Edna Chun; Alvin Evans (2018). "An Improbable Landscape for Diversity Cultural Change". Leading a Diversity Culture Shift in Higher Education: Comprehensive Organizational Learning Strategies (New Critical Viewpoints on Society). Routledge. ISBN 978-1138280717. With the demographic decline of whites in America, Donald Trump has given voice to the anger of white citizens who do not feel privileged.
  71. ^ Christopher Caldwell (17 September 2016). "Trump's forgotten people". The Spectator.
  72. ^ a b Damon T. Berry (2017). Blood and Faith: Christianity in American White Nationalism (Religion and Politics). Syracuse University Press. ISBN 978-0815635321. These findings also perhaps point to the susceptibility of white Americans, white Evangelicals in particular, to Far Right ideology expressed by the Alt-Right and white nationalists ... As demographics continue to trend toward the decline of the white majority in the United States, a demographic decline of white Evangelicals in particular, we may see the increasing appeal of protectionist rhetoric as a radicalizing element for some white Americans, Christian and non-Christian alike.
  73. ^ Peter Savodnik (February 11, 2020). "'How Could You Not Connect the Dots?': Inside the Red-Pilling of State Department Official Matthew Gebert". The Spectator. Then, on the morning of August 7, 2019, Hatewatch reported that Gebert was the leader of an alt-right cell in Northern Virginia, and that he had posted anti-Semitic comments on white nationalist forums and been a guest on a now defunct podcast called The Fatherland, which addressed issues like white demographic decline
  74. ^ Godwin, Jeremy T. (2020). "The Gospel According to White Christian Nationalism". In Agostinone-Wilson, Faith (ed.). On the Question of Truth in the Era of Trump (Critical Media Literacies). Brill Publishers. ISBN 978-9004391277. An Americanized version of salvation, where White demographic decline is halted and the country is purged of the Other. Whether the person who buys the hat actually 'believes' these things is mostly irrelevant, because the act of consumption, followed by the act of wearing, is a ritual that signals 'you are in it'.
  75. ^ Sarah Jones (March 14, 2017). "Steve King says racist things because he knows the GOP won't call him out on it". The New Republic.
  76. ^ Goldberg, Jeffrey (October 21, 2020). "The Challenge of Documenting White Nationalism". The Atlantic.
  77. ^ Brittany Farr (16 August 2021). "A Demographic Moral Panic: Fears of a Majority-Minority Future and the Depreciating Value of Whiteness". University of Chicago Law Review.
  78. ^ "Study: telling white people they'll be outnumbered makes them hate welfare more". Vox Media. June 7, 2018. The study builds on the long literature on the role of race in motivating opposition to welfare, but also on some more recent research showing that the threat of white demographic decline can profoundly affect Americans' political beliefs.
  79. ^ Eric Kaufmann (2019). Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities. Abrams Press. ISBN 978-1468316971. The effect is especially noticeable among high-identifying whites. Jardina finds a big jump in high-identifying whites' reported fear on a 0 to 1 scale, from .1 to almost .5, when they read about white demographic decline.
  80. ^ Bart Bonikowski; Yueran Zhang (2018), Populism as Dog-Whistle Politics: Anti-Elite Discourse and Sentiments toward Minorities (PDF), Harvard University
  81. ^ Maria Abascal (March 2020). "Contraction as a Response to Group Threat: Demographic Decline and Whites' Classification of People Who Are Ambiguously White". American Sociological Review. Vol. 85. SAGE Publications. pp. 298–322.
  82. ^ James A. Piazza (July 2020). "White Demographic Anxiety and Support for Torture of Terrorism Suspects". Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Taylor & Francis. In this study I use a survey experiment to test whether the prospect of White demographic decline affects attitudes toward treatment of terrorism suspects. I find that when White subjects are informed that Whites are projected to become a demographic minority in the United States by 2060 they are more likely to approve of the use of torture on terrorism suspects.
  83. ^ Mark Townsend (17 January 2021). "How Trump supporters are radicalised by the far right". The Guardian.
  84. ^ Nora McGreevy (February 16, 2021). "Was the Capitol Attack Part of a New Wave of Terrorism?". JSTOR Daily.
  85. ^ Pollitt 2015, p. 118: "A lot of this literature is vaguely (or openly) racist. It's white women -- often euphemistically called middle class women, educated women and high-IQ women -- who are letting down the country (or the continent -- Europe, where "demographic winter" holds frozen sway, plays a big role in this discussion)."
  86. ^ Alejandro I. Canales (2020). "Introduction". Migration, Reproduction and Society: Economic and Demographic Dilemmas in Global Capitalism (Studies in Critical Social Sciences). Haymarket Books. p. 12. ISBN 978-1642593549.
  87. ^ José Pedro Zúquete (2018). The Identitarians: The Movement against Globalism and Islam in Europe. University of Notre Dame Press. ISBN 978-0268104214.
  1. ^ As of the 2020 United States census, people Middle Eastern and North African descent are classified under the census as white. Some Hispanic and Latinos also identify as white.
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