2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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| Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Incumbent two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis, was re-elected in 2020 with 48.7% of the vote against former State Senator Cal Cunningham. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party had censured Tillis over his bipartisan support on gun control and same-sex marriage.[1] Outgoing governor Roy Cooper, who is term-limited as governor in 2024, is considered a potential Democratic candidate. On July 30, 2024, NBC reported that Cooper is planning to run for the Senate seat.[2]
Background
[edit]A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in both elections by 1.3% and 3.4%, respectively.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation, as well as both of the state's senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices.
Republican primary
[edit]Senator Thom Tillis is considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts.[3][4]
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present)[5]
Declined
[edit]- Mark Robinson, outgoing Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–present) and nominee for governor in 2024[6]
- Michele Morrow, nurse and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2024[4]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mark Robinson |
Thom Tillis |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign Viability Research[7] | November 13-15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | N/A | 35% | 42% | 23% |
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis |
Someone Else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign Viability Research[7] | November 13-15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | N/A | 31% | 36% | 33% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Announcement pending
[edit]- Wiley Nickel, outgoing U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–present) (announcement expected in February 2025)[5]
Potential
[edit]- Roy Cooper, outgoing Governor of North Carolina (2017–present)[2]
- Jeff Jackson, North Carolina Attorney General-elect and outgoing U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)[4]
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Sonasundaram, Praveena (June 12, 2023). "North Carolina Republicans censure Sen. Thom Tillis after stance on LGBTQ issues". The Washington Post.
- ^ a b Alcindor, Yamiche; Kapur, Sahil; Richard, Zoë (July 29, 2024). "North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper backs out of consideration to be Kamala Harris' running mate". NBC News. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
One source directly involved in her search for a running mate said Cooper took himself out of the mix because he wants to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026
- ^ Berryman, Kim; Pellish, Aaron (June 11, 2023). "Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is censured by North Carolina GOP delegates at convention". CNN.
- ^ a b c Specht, Paul; Doran, Will (November 17, 2024). "Trump nominations put NC's Thom Tillis, the nation's 'most vulnerable' Republican senator, in the spotlight". WRAL-TV. Capitol Broadcasting Company. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
- ^ a b Cohen, Zach C. (November 13, 2024). "Senate Republicans Face a More Competitive Senate Map in 2026". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
Tillis told reporters in September he plans to run for re-election
- ^ Murphy, Brian (November 20, 2024). "Mark Robinson says another run for political office is 'not on my radar at all'". WRAL-TV. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
- ^ a b "Hypothetical Robinson-Tillis 2026 Matchup: A Dogfight Waiting To Happen" (PDF). Campaign Viability Research. Campaign Viability Research.
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