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To start Week 15 of the NFL season, the Los Angeles Rams will be on the road to take on the San Francisco 49ers.
Both teams are coming off wins, with the 49ers beating the Chicago Bears 38-13 and the Rams edging out the Buffalo Bills 44-42.
The Rams are now 6-7 against the spread and 7-6 on the season, while the 49ers are 6-7 on the season and 5-8 against the spread. The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites.
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The 49ers bounced back in a big way in Week 14, scoring 38 in their win over the Bears. Now, at home, they’ll face a Rams team they lost by three to earlier this season.
It’s been a rollercoaster this season for the 49ers. They’ve lost several players due to injury, including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and, more recently, both of their top running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. Then, in Week 14, Isaac Guerendo left early with a foot injury. It sounds like he’ll play, but you have to wonder how effective he’ll be.
As for the Rams, their offense was cooking in Week 14, putting up 44 at home against the Bills. Wide receiver Puka Nacua led the way with 12 catches, well over 150 yards, and a score. Running back Kyren Williams, despite his inefficiencies, had two touchdowns.
The problem for the Rams has been their pass defense, and more specficaly, the number of passing touchdowns they allow per game. They allow 1.77 per game, which is third-most in the NFL. Besides the Bills last week, though, they’ve been better, allowing one or less in four of seven games since Week 5.
In that same span, they’ve only allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, and those were all against Saquon Barkley, who went nuclear on them for over 250 yards and three touchdowns.
The 49ers, though, allow more than one rushing touchdown per game. Williams hasn’t been efficient, but he has 12 rushing scores this season.
I’m expecting a lower-scoring game than earlier this season, and with the injuries the 49ers have had to deal with, I’ll lean toward the Rams. That said, hold off a bit longer to see if this gets out to three points. When that happens, pounce. If it doesn’t, I’m OK with 2.5.
Best Bet: Rams +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
As mentioned, I think we may see a lower-scoring game. The 49ers have injuries in the running game, which could help the Rams slow down the passing game production.
As for the Rams offense, they’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowed just four touchdowns over the last five games to opposing wide receivers.
I expect a lower-scoring game than the 27-24 Rams win earlier this season.
I’ll take the Rams 20-17.
While betting who you think will win and by how much offers excitement, betting on individual player’s performance, like anytime or first scorer touchdown-related props, brings somewhat of a fantasy football-like element into it, especially when using the best sportsbooks to get top prices.
Looking at anytime touchdown props, my favorite of the night is the player most likely to score, and that’s Williams. He doesn’t run with a high yards-per-carry average but scores a bunch. He has 12 touchdowns this year, and the 49ers allow more than one rushing touchdown per game to opposing running backs.
