by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2025 06:22:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January. 

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.6 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The consensus is for an increase in sales to 15.9 million SAAR.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 17 and DOW futures are up 55 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $70.10 per barrel and Brent at $73.16 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $81, and Brent was at $85 - so WTI oil prices are down about 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.04 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.33 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.29 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2025 09:19:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ...

16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 60.3% (-2.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.90 (+2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$96.49 (-0.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next several weeks.

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2025 02:22:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report.

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday.

----- Monday, March 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.6 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The consensus is for an increase in sales to 15.9 million SAAR.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

----- Tuesday, March 4th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, March 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February, down from 183,000 added in January.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for February.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, March 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 242 thousand initial claims last week.

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The U.S. trade deficit was at $98.4 billion in December.

----- Friday, March 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%.

There were 143,000 jobs added in January, and the unemployment rate was at 4.0%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, N.Y.

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 07:03:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	850	893	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of February 27th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has moving down recently.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Moderate", down from "High" two weeks ago, according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 11:49:00 AM

From BofA:

The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our tracking estimate exaggerates the softness in Q1 to some extent because elevated gold imports ought to result in an offsetting increase in inventory accumulation, but the Q4 GDP data suggest this offset is unlikely to be captured in real time. [Feb 28th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent. [Feb 28th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 10:47:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in January. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.9% in January, down from up 4.1% YoY in December. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida (and Florida has 6 of the top 10 cities with the largest price declines).

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 08:57:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.5% YoY in January, down from 4.7% in December and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are slightly above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. Note: There is possibly some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 2.9%
Core PCE Prices: 2.4%
Core minus Housing: 2.1%

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January:

Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $30.7 billion (0.2 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $52.7 billion in January. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in January and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
...
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for January increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
emphasis added

The January PCE price index increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.6 percent YoY in December, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in December, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was well above expectations, and PCE was below expectations.

Inflation was close to expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 07:23:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February.