United States House of Representatives elections, 2016

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2016 U.S. House Elections
Election Date
November 8, 2016
U.S. Senate Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maryland • Missouri • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • South Dakota • Utah • Vermont • Washington • Wisconsin
U.S. House Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming


Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2016. All 435 seats were up for election. Additionally, there were three special elections to fill the final two months of vacancies that were created during the 114th United States Congress.

Despite losing several seats in the chamber, the Republican Party had a strong night in the House. Republicans preserved their majority and only lost a net six seats, resulting in a 241-194 majority. It was never likely that Democrats would retake the chamber; however, double-digit gains in the House were predicted.

Although it was unlikely for Democrats to retake the House, the possibility had been discussed prior to the election. In order to flip control of the chamber, the Democratic Party would have needed to pick up 30 seats. Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated 23 races as battlegrounds and an additional 14 as races to watch. If Democrats had won every one of those 37 races and lost no other seats, they would have just hit the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As expected, the Republican Party easily held the chamber.[1][2][3]

The coinciding presidential election had a significant impact on the elections for U.S. House. Presidential election years lead to increased voter interest and turnout, which has an effect all the way down the ballot. In the past decade, presidential elections have led to Democratic gains in the U.S. House, while midterms have helped Republicans. [1] Presidential elections also tend to result in smaller changes to House partisan balance than midterms. The last two presidential elections saw gains of only eight and 24 seats for Democrats, while the last two midterms resulted in Republican gains of 13 and 64 seats.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • The Democratic Party gained six seats in 2016, resulting in a 241-194 majority for the Republican Party.
  • Eight of the 23 battleground districts flipped partisan control in 2016. Four other seats flipped as a result of redistricting.
  • Incumbents did very well in 2016. A total of 380 of the 393 House incumbents seeking re-election won, resulting in an incumbency re-election rate of 96.7%. The average margin of victory in U.S. House races was 37.1 percent.

    • Election results

    Prior to the election, The Republican Party had the majority in the U.S. House. Republicans held 246 seats compared to Democrats' 186 seats, while three seats were vacant. The Republican Party's majority was slightly reduced in 2016, as Democrats picked up six seats.

    U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
    Party As of November 2016 After the 2016 Election
         Democratic Party 186 194
         Republican Party 246 241
         Vacant 3 0
    Total 435 435


    Battlegrounds

    This table shows what happened in each of the 23 House battleground races.

    United States House Battleground Results
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch? Margin of victory
    Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran No 7.3%
    California's 7th Democratic Party Ami Bera Democratic Party Ami Bera No 2.3%
    California's 25th Republican Party Stephen Knight Republican Party Stephen Knight No 6.3%
    California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Republican Party Darrell Issa No 0.5%
    Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman No 8.3%
    Florida's 7th Republican Party John Mica Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy Yes 3%
    Florida's 18th Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Republican Party Brian Mast Yes 10.5%
    Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party Carlos Curbelo No 11.8%
    Illinois' 10th Republican Party Robert Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes 5.2%
    Iowa's 1st Republican Party Rod Blum Republican Party Rod Blum No 7.7%
    Maine's 2nd Republican Party Bruce Poliquin Republican Party Bruce Poliquin No 9.6%
    Michigan's 1st Republican Party Dan Benishek Republican Party Jack Bergman No 14.8%
    Minnesota's 2nd Republican Party John Kline Republican Party Jason Lewis No 1.8%
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic Party Brad Ashford Republican Party Don Bacon Yes 1.2%
    Nevada's 3rd Republican Party Joe Heck Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes 1.3%
    Nevada's 4th Republican Party Cresent Hardy Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Yes 4%
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican Party Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes 1.3%
    New Jersey's 5th Republican Party Scott Garrett Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes 4.4%
    New York's 19th Republican Party Chris Gibson Republican Party John Faso No 8.6%
    New York's 22nd Republican Party Richard Hanna Republican Party Claudia Tenney No 5.5%
    Pennsylvania's 8th Republican Party Michael G. Fitzpatrick Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick No 8.9%
    Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd No 1.3%
    Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Republican Party Barbara Comstock No 5.8%

    Expected seat changes

    These are districts where a change in party was expected due to court-ordered redistricting that occurred earlier in the election cycle. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control.

    United States House Redistricting Flips
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch?
    Florida's 2nd Democratic Party Gwen Graham Republican Party Neal Dunn Yes
    Florida's 10th Republican Party Daniel Webster Democratic Party Val Demings Yes
    Florida's 13th Republican Party David Jolly Democratic Party Charlie Crist Yes
    Virginia's 4th Republican Party Randy Forbes Democratic Party Donald McEachin Yes

    Defeated incumbents

    The following table shows the incumbents who sought re-election but were defeated in the general election.

    United States House Defeated Incumbents
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch?
    California's 17th Democratic Party Mike Honda Democratic Party Ro Khanna No
    Florida's 7th Republican Party John Mica Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy Yes
    Florida's 13th Republican Party David Jolly Democratic Party Charlie Crist Yes
    Illinois' 10th Republican Party Robert Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic Party Brad Ashford Republican Party Don Bacon Yes
    Nevada's 4th Republican Party Cresent Hardy Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Yes
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican Party Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes
    New Jersey's 5th Republican Party Scott Garrett Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes

    Margin of victory

    The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some quick facts:

    • The average margin of victory was 36.6 percent. This is very close to the average of 35.8 percent in 2014.
    • The average margin of victory in battleground races was 5.71 percent.
    • On average, Republicans won by significantly smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 41.54 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 33.51 percent.
    • The closest race was in California's 49th Congressional District, where incumbent Darrell Issa (R) defeated Douglas Applegate (D) by 0.5 percent of the vote.

    The following table displays the closest House races in the country in 2016.

    United States House Closest Races
    District Winner Margin of Victory Total Vote Top Opponent
    California District 49 Republican Party Darrell Issa 0.5% 310,155 Douglas Applegate
    Minnesota District 8 Democratic Party Rick Nolan 0.6% 356,979 Stewart Mills
    Minnesota District 1 Democratic Party Tim Walz 0.8% 335,877 Jim Hagedorn
    Nebraska District 2 Republican Party Don Bacon 1.2% 288,308 Brad Ashford
    Nevada District 3 Democratic Party Jacky Rosen 1.3% 310,963 Danny Tarkanian
    New Hampshire District 1 Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter 1.3% 365,572 Frank Guinta
    Texas District 23 Republican Party Will Hurd 1.3% 228,965 Pete Gallego
    Minnesota District 2 Republican Party Jason Lewis 1.8% 370,514 Angie Craig
    California District 7 Democratic Party Ami Bera 2.3% 297,301 Scott Jones
    Florida District 7 Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy 3% 353,655 John Mica
    California District 10 Republican Party Jeff Denham 3.4% 241,141 Michael Eggman
    Florida District 13 Democratic Party Charlie Crist 3.8% 355,842 David Jolly
    Nevada District 4 Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen 4% 265,846 Cresent Hardy
    California District 44 Democratic Party Nanette Barragan 4.4% 178,413 Isadore Hall
    New Hampshire District 2 Democratic Party Annie Kuster 4.4% 350,272 Jim Lawrence
    New Jersey District 5 Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer 4.4% 337,701 Scott Garrett
    Minnesota District 7 Democratic Party Collin Peterson 5% 330,848 Dave Hughes

    Margin of victory data for all 435 House races is displayed in the following table.

    Popular vote by party and state

    The following table displays the total number of votes received and the number of seats won by party for each state in the 2016 U.S. House elections. It also compares the percentage of the total vote received by each party to the percentage of seats in the state won by each party. Some interesting facts:

    • Republican candidates received 49.13% of total votes cast in 2016 and won 55.4% of U.S. House seats. Comparatively, Democratic candidates received 48.03% of votes and won 44.6% of races. Third-party and write-in candidates received 2.56% of votes.
    • Third-party candidates received the highest percentage of votes in Arkansas with 18.42% of votes cast. Comparatively, Democratic candidates only received 10.42% of the total votes cast in Arkansas. This is likely due to the fact that the Democratic Party only fielded a general election candidate in one of the state's four House races.
    • There were two states in which the party that received the most total votes won a minority of seats, Virginia and Wisconsin. In Virginia, Democratic candidates received 49.17% of votes but only won 36.36% of seats (4 of 11), while Republican candidates received 48.74% of votes and won 63.64% of seats (7 of 11). In Wisconsin, Democratic candidates received 49.85% of votes but won 37.5% of seats (3 of 8), while Republican candidates received 45.89% of votes and won 62.5% of seats (5 of 8).
    • Maine was the state in which the popular vote and the number of seats won most aligned. In Maine, Democrats received 51.93% of the vote while winning 50% of seats, while Republicans received 48.01% of the vote and won the other 50% of seats. This results in an average disparity of 1.96%. Arizona, New York, New Jersey, and Washington followed with average disparities of 2.34%, 2.97%, 4.29%, and 4.73%.

    Note: For the purpose of our study, votes for candidates who appeared on the ballot under multiple different parties were counted for the major party that candidate was affiliated with (Democratic or Republican). This pertains to Connecticut, New York, and South Carolina.

    United States House Votes by Party and State
    State Total Votes D votes D seats won R votes R seats won 3rd party votes
    Alabama 1,889,685 621,911 1 1,222,018 6 45,756
    Alabama % 32.91% 14.29% 64.67% 85.71% 2.42%
    Alaska 308,198 111,019 0 155,088 1 42,091
    Alaska % 36.02% 0% 50.32% 100% 13.66%
    Arizona 2,412,064 1,034,687 4 1,264,378 5 112,999
    Arizona % 42.90% 44.44% 52.42% 55.56% 4.68%
    Arkansas 1,068,577 111,347 0 760,415 4 196,815
    Arkansas % 10.42% 0% 71.16% 100% 18.42%
    California 13,396,018 8,624,432 39 4,682,033 14 89,553
    California % 64.38% 73.58% 34.95% 26.42% 0.67%
    Colorado 2,701,438 1,263,791 3 1,288,618 4 149,029
    Colorado % 46.78% 42.86% 47.70% 57.14% 5.52%
    Connecticut 1,575,183 990,139 5 568,134 0 16,910
    Connecticut % 62.86% 100% 36.07% 0% 1.07%
    Delaware 420,617 233,554 1 172,301 0 14,762
    Delaware % 55.53% 100% 40.96% 0% 3.51%
    Florida 8,837,426 3,985,050 11 4,733,630 16 118,746
    Florida % 45.09% 40.74% 53.56% 59.26% 1.34%
    Georgia 3,770,897 1,498,437 4 2,272,460 10 0
    Georgia % 39.74% 28.57% 60.26% 71.43% 0%
    Hawaii 412,873 316,265 2 85,626 0 10,982
    Hawaii % 76.60% 100% 20.74% 0% 2.66%
    Idaho 681,594 208,992 0 447,544 2 25,058
    Idaho % 30.66% 0% 65.66% 100% 3.68%
    Illinois 5,241,767 2,810,536 11 2,397,436 7 33,795
    Illinois % 53.62% 61.11% 45.74% 38.89% 0.64%
    Indiana 2,658,367 1,052,901 2 1,442,989 7 162,477
    Indiana % 39.61% 22.22% 54.28% 77.78% 6.11%
    Iowa 1,515,555 673,969 1 813,153 3 28,433
    Iowa % 44.47% 25% 53.65% 75% 1.88%
    Kansas 1,173,736 317,635 0 694,240 4 161,861
    Kansas % 27.06% 0% 59.15% 100% 13.79%
    Kentucky 1,765,376 516,904 1 1,248,140 5 332
    Kentucky % 29.28% 16.67% 70.70% 83.33% 0.02%
    Louisiana 1,804,256 564,064 1 1,198,764 5 41,428
    Louisiana % 31.26% 16.67% 66.44% 83.33% 2.30%
    Maine 744,574 386,627 1 357,447 1 500
    Maine % 51.93% 50% 48.01% 50% 0.07%
    Maryland 2,707,745 1,636,200 7 962,088 1 109,457
    Maryland % 60.43% 87.50% 35.53% 12.50% 4.04%
    Massachusetts 2,940,688 2,344,518 9 451,121 0 145,049
    Massachusetts % 79.73% 100% 15.34% 0% 4.93%
    Michigan 4,670,905 2,193,980 5 2,243,402 9 233,523
    Michigan % 46.97% 35.71% 48.03% 64.29% 5%
    Minnesota 2,860,432 1,434,590 5 1,334,686 3 91,156
    Minnesota % 50.15% 62.50% 46.66% 37.50% 3.19%
    Mississippi 1,182,273 449,896 1 680,810 3 51,567
    Mississippi % 38.05% 25% 57.58% 75% 4.36%
    Missouri 2,750,079 1,041,306 2 1,600,524 6 108,249
    Missouri % 37.86% 25% 58.20% 75% 3.94%
    Montana 507,831 205,919 0 285,358 1 16,554
    Montana % 40.55% 0% 56.19% 100% 3.26%
    Nebraska 788,266 221,069 0 557,557 3 9,640
    Nebraska % 28.04% 0% 70.73% 100% 1.22%
    Nevada 1,078,497 508,113 3 498,104 1 72,280
    Nevada % 47.11% 75% 46.19% 25% 6.70%
    New Hampshire 715,844 336,451 2 316,001 0 63,392
    New Hampshire % 47% 100% 44.14% 0% 8.86%
    New Jersey 3,463,311 1,821,620 7 1,541,631 5 100,060
    New Jersey % 52.60% 58.33% 44.51% 41.67% 2.89%
    New Mexico 780,125 436,932 2 343,123 1 70
    New Mexico % 56.01% 66.67% 43.98% 33.33% 0.01%
    New York 7,048,120 4,432,539 18 2,501,858 9 113,723
    New York % 62.89% 66.67% 35.50% 33.33% 1.61%
    North Carolina 4,598,458 2,142,661 3 2,447,326 10 8,471
    North Carolina % 46.60% 23.08% 53.22% 76.92% 0.18%
    North Dakota 338,459 80,377 0 233,980 1 24,102
    North Dakota % 23.75% 0% 69.13% 100% 7.12%
    Ohio 5,218,355 2,154,523 4 2,996,017 12 67,815
    Ohio % 41.29% 25% 57.41% 75% 1.30%
    Oklahoma 1,133,244 305,222 0 781,691 5 46,331
    Oklahoma % 26.93% 0% 68.98% 100% 4.09%
    Oregon 1,911,865 1,026,851 4 730,894 1 154,120
    Oregon % 53.71% 80% 38.23% 20% 8.06%
    Pennsylvania 5,743,978 2,625,157 5 3,096,576 13 22,245
    Pennsylvania % 45.70% 27.78% 53.91% 72.22% 0.39%
    Rhode Island 431,519 263,642 2 141,324 0 26,553
    Rhode Island % 61.10% 100% 32.75% 0% 6.15%
    South Carolina 2,011,766 790,323 1 1,177,365 6 44,078
    South Carolina % 39.29% 14.29% 58.52% 85.71% 2.19%
    South Dakota 369,973 132,810 0 237,163 1 0
    South Dakota % 35.90% 0% 64.10% 100% 0%
    Tennessee 2,391,061 814,181 2 1,493,740 7 83,140
    Tennessee % 34.05% 22.22% 62.47% 77.78% 3.48%
    Texas 8,528,526 3,160,535 11 4,877,605 25 490,386
    Texas % 36.86% 30.56% 57.37% 69.44% 1.53%
    Utah 1,114,144 356,287 0 710,635 4 47,222
    Utah % 31.98% 0% 63.78% 100% 4.24%
    Vermont 295,334 264,414 1 0 0 30,920
    Vermont % 89.53% 100% 0% 0% 10.47%
    Virginia 3,781,568 1,859,426 4 1,843,010 7 79,132
    Virginia % 49.17% 36.36% 48.74% 63.64% 2.09%
    Washington 3,141,035 1,736,145 6 1,404,890 4 0
    Washington % 55.27% 60% 44.73% 40% 0%
    West Virginia 686,349 224,449 0 445,017 3 16,883
    West Virginia % 32.70% 0% 64.84% 100% 2.46%
    Wisconsin 2,768,094 1,379,996 3 1,270,279 5 117,819
    Wisconsin % 49.85% 37.50% 45.89% 62.50% 4.26%
    Wyoming 251,776 75,466 0 156,176 1 20,134
    Wyoming % 29.97% 0% 62.03% 100% 8%
    Totals 128,560,821 61,750,858 194 63,164,365 241 3,285,466
    Total % 48.03% 44.60% 49.13% 55.40% 2.56%

    Retired incumbents

    A total of 42 incumbents (9.7 percent) chose not to seek re-election in 2016. Some of those were due to retirement, while others chose to seek higher office instead.

    The following members of the U.S. House chose to retire rather than seek re-election in 2016.

    • Democratic Party 9 Democrats
    • Republican Party 20 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    Ander CrenshawEnds.png Republican Florida, District 4
    Candice MillerEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 10
    Charles B. RangelElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 13
    Chris GibsonEnds.png Republican New York, District 19
    Curt ClawsonEnds.png Republican Florida, District 19
    Cynthia LummisEnds.png Republican U.S. House, Wyoming
    Dan BenishekEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 1
    Ed Whitfield (a)Ends.png Republican Kentucky, District 1
    Gwen GrahamElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 2
    Janice HahnNonpartisan Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, District 4
    Jeff MillerEnds.png Republican Florida, District 1
    Jim McDermottElectiondot.png Democratic Washington, District 7
    John KlineEnds.png Republican Minnesota, District 2
    Joseph R. PittsEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 16
    Lois CappsElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 24
    Lynn A. WestmorelandEnds.png Republican Georgia, District 3
    Mark Takai (b)Ends.png Democratic Hawaii, District 1
    Matt SalmonEnds.png Republican Arizona, District 5
    Michael G. FitzpatrickEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 8
    Randy NeugebauerEnds.png Republican Texas, District 19
    Reid RibbleEnds.png Republican Wisconsin, District 8
    Richard L. HannaEnds.png Republican New York, District 22
    Richard B. NugentEnds.png Republican Florida, District 11
    Robert HurtEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 5
    Rubén HinojosaElectiondot.png Democratic Texas, District 15
    Sam FarrElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 20
    Scott RigellEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 2
    Stephen Lee FincherEnds.png Republican Tennessee
    Steve IsraelElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 3
    (a) In September 2015, Whitfield announced he would not seek re-election. He subsequently resigned his seat on September 6, 2016, prior to the end of the 114th Congress.
    (b) Takai announced in 2016 he would not seek re-election, a few months before he died on on July 20, 2016.

    Incumbents who sought higher office

    The following incumbents did not seek re-election to the U.S. House. They instead sought election to another office in 2016.

    U.S. Senate

    • Democratic Party 6 Democrats
    • Republican Party 5 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    Alan GraysonElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 11
    Ann KirkpatrickElectiondot.png Democratic Arizona, District 2
    Charles Boustany Jr.Ends.png Republican Louisiana, District 3
    Chris Van HollenElectiondot.png Democratic Maryland
    Donna EdwardsElectiondot.png Democratic Maryland, District 4
    Joe HeckEnds.png Republican Nevada, District 3
    John FlemingEnds.png Republican Louisiana, District 4
    Loretta SanchezElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 46
    Marlin A. StutzmanEnds.png Republican Indiana, District 3
    Patrick MurphyElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 18
    Tammy DuckworthElectiondot.png Democratic Illinois
    Todd C. YoungEnds.png Republican Indiana

    Governor

    • Democratic Party 1 Democrat
    • Republican Party 0 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    John C. Carney Jr.Electiondot.png Democratic Governor of Delaware

    Battleground races

    See also: U.S. House battlegrounds, 2016

    The map below highlights the 23 districts that were designated as battlegrounds in 2016.

    The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be battlegrounds in Ballotpedia's study.

    The following table displays the results of the election in each battleground district.

    United States House Battleground Results
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch? Margin of victory
    Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran No 7.3%
    California's 7th Democratic Party Ami Bera Democratic Party Ami Bera No 2.3%
    California's 25th Republican Party Stephen Knight Republican Party Stephen Knight No 6.3%
    California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Republican Party Darrell Issa No 0.5%
    Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman No 8.3%
    Florida's 7th Republican Party John Mica Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy Yes 3%
    Florida's 18th Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Republican Party Brian Mast Yes 10.5%
    Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party Carlos Curbelo No 11.8%
    Illinois' 10th Republican Party Robert Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes 5.2%
    Iowa's 1st Republican Party Rod Blum Republican Party Rod Blum No 7.7%
    Maine's 2nd Republican Party Bruce Poliquin Republican Party Bruce Poliquin No 9.6%
    Michigan's 1st Republican Party Dan Benishek Republican Party Jack Bergman No 14.8%
    Minnesota's 2nd Republican Party John Kline Republican Party Jason Lewis No 1.8%
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic Party Brad Ashford Republican Party Don Bacon Yes 1.2%
    Nevada's 3rd Republican Party Joe Heck Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes 1.3%
    Nevada's 4th Republican Party Cresent Hardy Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Yes 4%
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican Party Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes 1.3%
    New Jersey's 5th Republican Party Scott Garrett Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes 4.4%
    New York's 19th Republican Party Chris Gibson Republican Party John Faso No 8.6%
    New York's 22nd Republican Party Richard Hanna Republican Party Claudia Tenney No 5.5%
    Pennsylvania's 8th Republican Party Michael G. Fitzpatrick Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick No 8.9%
    Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd No 1.3%
    Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Republican Party Barbara Comstock No 5.8%

    This table displays the initial criteria used to determine competitiveness in more specific detail. It gives ranges for each criterion and the competitiveness associated with them. Each district was analyzed using this as a baseline to determine competitiveness.

    Color Key
    Color Margin of Victory (MOV) Presidential MOV % Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Purple – most competitive 0.0-4.9 0.0-4.9 1 Yes Toss-up
    Orange – very competitive 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 2-3 N/A Lean D/R
    Green – competitive 8.0-10.0 8.0-10.0 4-5 N/A Likely D/R
    House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the state in 2012

    The following races are those that were expected to be the closest in 2016.

    Most competitive 2016 House elections
    District Incumbent's party District MOV 2014 District MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Arizona's 1st Democratic 5.2 3.6 -2.5 -3.2 2 Yes Lean D
    California's 7th Democratic 0.8 3.4 ✓4.0 ✓5.0 2 No Lean D
    California's 25th Republican 6.7 9.6 -1.9 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
    California's 49th Republican 20.3 16.3 -6.7 ✓1.0 8 No Toss Up
    Colorado's 6th Republican 8.9 2.0 ✓5.1 ✓8.7 4 No Toss Up
    Florida's 7th Republican 31.5 17.4 -4.7 -0.8 11 No Toss Up
    Florida's 18th Democratic 19.6 0.6 -4.1 ✓3.1 2 Yes Toss Up
    Florida's 26th Republican 2.9 10.6 ✓6.7 -0.4 1 No Toss Up
    Illinois' 10th Republican 2.6 1.3 ✓16.4 ✓27.1 1 No Toss Up
    Iowa's 1st Republican 2.3 15.4 ✓13.7 ✓18.1 1 No Toss Up
    Maine's 2nd Republican 5.0 15.7 ✓9.0 ✓12 1 No Toss Up
    Michigan's 1st Republican 6.9 0.5 -8.3 ✓1.3 3 Yes Lean R
    Minnesota's 2nd Republican 17.2 8.2 ✓0.1 ✓2.9 7 Yes Toss-up
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic 3.3 1.6 -7.0 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
    Nevada's 3rd Republican 24.6 7.5 ✓0.8 ✓8.9 3 Yes Toss Up
    Nevada's 4th Republican 2.8 8.0 ✓10.7 ✓15.0 1 No Lean D
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican 3.6 3.8 ✓1.6 ✓6.4 1 No Lean D
    New Jersey's 5th Republican 12.1 12.3 -3.1 -2.0 7 No Toss-up
    New York's 19th Republican 28.1 5.3 ✓6.2 ✓8.0 3 Yes Toss Up
    New York's 22nd Republican 48.1 19.9 -0.4 0.0 3 Yes Toss Up
    Pennsylvania's 8th Republican 23.8 13.2 -0.1 ✓7.5 3 Yes Toss Up
    Texas' 23rd Republican 2.1 4.8 -2.6 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
    Virginia's 10th Republican 16.1 19.7 -1.1 ✓2.8 1 No Toss Up
    • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

    The following races were all expected to be at least somewhat close, but they were not considered among the most competitive races.

    Races to watch
    District Incumbent's Party District MOV 2014 District MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    California's 10th Republican 12.3 5.4 ✓3.6 ✓3.0 3 No Toss Up
    California's 24th Democratic 3.9 10.2 ✓11 ✓15 9 Yes Lean D
    Florida's 13th Republican 50.5 15.1 ✓1.5 ✓3.8 22 Yes Lean D
    Indiana's 9th Republican 28.5 10.9 -16.5 -6.5 2 Yes Lean R
    Iowa's 3rd Republican 10.5 8.6 ✓4.2 ✓6.1 1 No Lean R
    Kansas' 3rd Republican 20 36.9 -9.5 -1.1 2 No Lean R
    Michigan's 7th Republican 12.3 10.3 -3.1 ✓3.4 3 No Lean R
    Minnesota's 3rd Republican 24.4 16.3 ✓0.8 ✓3.6 3 No Lean R
    Minnesota's 8th Democratic 1.4 8.9 ✓5.5 ✓8.6 2 No Lean D
    New York's 1st Republican 8.7 4.6 ✓0.5 ✓3.0 1 No Lean R
    New York's 3rd Democratic 9.2 5.0 ✓2.6 ✓8.0 2 Yes Likely D
    New York's 24th Republican 18.8 5.3 ✓15.9 ✓14.0 1 No Lean R
    Utah's 4th Republican 3.3 0.3 -37 -15.2 1 No Lean R
    Wisconsin's 8th Republican 30.1 12 -3.7 ✓8.7 3 Yes Lean R
    • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.


    Race ratings

    The following table compares Ballotpedia's battleground ratings with the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report.

    U.S. House race ratings comparison
    District Ballotpedia Cook[4] Sabato[5] Rothenberg[6]
    Alaska's At-Large Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R
    Arizona's 1st Battleground Lean D Lean D Lean D
    Arizona's 2nd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    California's 7th Battleground Lean D Lean D Lean D
    California's 10th Competitive R Toss-up Toss-up Lean R
    California's 21st Safe R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    California's 24th Competitive D Lean D Lean D D Favored
    California's 25th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up R Favored
    California's 49th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Colorado's 3rd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    Colorado's 6th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Florida's 2nd[7] Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Florida's 7th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt D
    Florida's 10th[7] Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Florida's 13th Competitive D Lean D Lean D Lean D
    Florida's 18th Battleground Lean R Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Florida's 26th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Florida's 27th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Illinois' 10th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Illinois' 12th Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    Indiana's 2nd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    Indiana's 9th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Iowa's 1st Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
    Iowa's 3rd Competitive R Lean R Lean R Toss-up/Tilt R
    Kansas' 3rd Competitive R Lean R Lean R Lean R
    Maine's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Maryland's 6th Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Michigan's 1st Battleground Lean R Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Michigan's 7th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Michigan's 8th Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R
    Minnesota's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    Minnesota's 3rd Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Minnesota's 8th Competitive D Toss-up Lean D Lean D
    Montana's At-Large Safe R Likely R Likely R R Favored
    Nebraska's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    Nevada's 3rd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
    Nevada's 4th Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    New Hampshire's 1st Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    New Jersey's 3rd Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    New Jersey's 5th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt D
    New York's 1st Competitive R Lean R Lean R Lean R
    New York's 3rd Competitive D Likely D Likely D Lean D
    New York's 19th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    New York's 21st Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    New York's 22nd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    New York's 23rd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    New York's 24th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    New York's 25th Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Pennsylvania's 6th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Pennsylvania's 8th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Pennsylvania's 16th Safe R Lean R Lean R Safe R
    Texas' 23rd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Utah's 4th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Virginia's 4th[7] Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Virginia's 5th Safe R Likely R Lean R R Favored
    Virginia's 10th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Wisconsin's 8th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored

    Primary competitiveness

    Primary competitiveness measures the percentage of primary elections in which voters actually have a choice to make. In most cases, this means those primaries in which there are two or more candidates running. However, in states that use a top-two primary system, a primary must have at least three candidates running to be considered contested. Candidates who have declared write-in campaigns are not enough for a race to be considered contested.

    In 2016, 44.53 percent of all major party primaries were contested. If you exclude California and Washington, the two states that use a top-two primary system, 41.53 percent of primaries were contested. As in the past several election cycles, Republican candidates faced significantly more primary opposition than Democratic ones. In Republican contests, 46.17 percent of primaries were contested, while 36.89 percent of Democratic primaries were contested.

    Incumbents sought re-election in 90 percent of U.S. House districts. Party made no real difference in the percentage of incumbents who sought re-election. However, as was the case in overall primary races, Republican incumbents were more likely to face a primary challenger than Democratic incumbents. In Republican primary races featuring an incumbent, 52.25 percent of races were contested, while 44.71 percent of Democratic incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger. Only five incumbents were defeated in primary elections in 2016. This amounts to 1.3 percent, which is average over the past decade.

    The map below displays the percentage of contested primary races in each state.
    • Filing deadline data is being used for states that haven't yet held their primaries. Slight inaccuracies may arise if filed candidates withdraw prior to the primary.
    • Louisiana doesn't hold a primary. All candidates compete in the general election and a runoff is held if no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote.

    Full data regarding general competitiveness and competition in races involving an incumbent can be found in the tables below.


    Defeated incumbents

    Congressional incumbents defeated in primaries.PNG

    Five incumbent members of Congress lost their primary elections in 2016—a slightly higher number than the past decade's average. This slight increase can be explained by the court-ordered redistricting that took place in several states. Redistricting played a role in three of the five incumbent losses, one of which was an incumbent-versus-incumbent battle.

    Redistricting also explains why so many incumbents were defeated in the primaries in 2012, the first election after maps were redrawn following the 2010 census. In 2012, eight incumbent members of Congress lost to another incumbent in the primary as a direct result of redistricting.

    Chaka Fattah

    Chaka Fattah

    Chaka Fattah was the first incumbent to lose a primary in 2016. He was defeated by Dwight Evans in the Democratic primary on April 26, 2016. Heading into the election, Fattah—who had represented Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District from 1994 until his resignation on June 23, 2016—had been made vulnerable due to an indictment in 2015 on charges including bribery, money laundering, and bank and mail fraud. Fattah was ultimately convicted of all charges in June, and he resigned shortly thereafter.[8][9][10][11]

    U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngDwight Evans 42.3% 75,515
    Chaka Fattah Incumbent 34.4% 61,518
    Brian Gordon 13.2% 23,655
    Dan Muroff 10.1% 18,016
    Total Votes 178,704
    Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

    Renee Ellmers

    Renee Ellmers

    Renee Ellmers was the second incumbent to fall in 2016. Ellmers was defeated by fellow GOP incumbent George Holding—who represented the 13th Congressional District heading into the election—in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary. Redistricting altered both districts significantly, causing Holding to seek election in the 2nd District. Heading into the primary, Holding was a clear favorite. He had the backing of a number of Republican organizations, including Americans for Prosperity, FreedomWorks, and the Club for Growth. However, Ellmers did secure a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Holding easily defeated Ellmers, receiving over twice as many votes.[12][13][14][13][15]

    U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngGeorge Holding Incumbent 53.4% 17,084
    Renee Ellmers Incumbent 23.6% 7,552
    Greg Brannon 23% 7,359
    Total Votes 31,995
    Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

    Randy Forbes

    Randy Forbes

    Randy Forbes was defeated in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on June 14, 2016, by state Delegate Scott Taylor. Forbes, who represented the 4th Congressional District heading into the election, chose to seek election in District 2 after redistricting left his seat as a likely Democratic pickup in the general election. Forbes chose the 2nd District because it was open following incumbent Scott Rigell's decision not to seek re-election. The switch left Forbes vulnerable; since the region was entirely outside of his prior constituency, he was portrayed as an outsider. As a result, Taylor easily defeated Forbes by a margin of nearly 12 percent.[16][17]

    U.S. House, Virginia District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngScott Taylor 52.6% 21,406
    Randy Forbes Incumbent 40.6% 16,552
    Pat Cardwell 6.8% 2,773
    Total Votes 40,731
    Source: Virginia Department of Elections

    Tim Huelskamp

    Tim Huelskamp

    Tim Huelskamp was defeated in Kansas' 1st Congressional District Republican primary on August 2, 2016, by physician Roger Marshall. Huelskamp lost by a significant margin of 13 percent. Outside groups took an interest in the primary battle between Huelskamp and Marshall. In a reversal of the usual narrative, Huelskamp, the incumbent, was supported by the more conservative, anti-establishment wing of the Republican Party, while the challenger, Marshall, received the backing of groups normally associated with establishment Republicans. Huelskamp was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth, while Marshall received endorsements from the Kansas Farm Bureau and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.[18][19]

    U.S. House, Kansas District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngRoger Marshall 56.6% 59,889
    Tim Huelskamp Incumbent 43.4% 45,997
    Total Votes 105,886
    Source: Kansas Secretary of State

    Corrine Brown

    Corrine Brown

    Corrine Brown was defeated in Florida's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 30, 2016, by former state Sen. Al Lawson. Brown was defeated by a margin of roughly 8 percent. Multiple factors made Brown unusually vulnerable in 2016: she was indicted earlier in the year on "charges of mail and wire fraud, conspiracy, obstruction and filing of false tax returns," and she also only represented roughly 38 percent of the newly drawn 5th District.[20]

    U.S. House, Florida District 5 Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngAl Lawson 47.6% 39,306
    Corrine Brown Incumbent 39% 32,235
    L.J. Holloway 13.4% 11,048
    Total Votes 82,589
    Source: Florida Division of Elections


    Presidential coattails

    Of the states that had Republican senators up for election, the senators’ average win was 3.2 percent higher than President-elect Donald Trump’s average win, according to preliminary vote totals.[21] Trump's average win was 55.4 percent, while Republican senators' average win was 58.6 percent.

    In Ballotpedia’s battleground races and races to watch, Republican Senators John McCain (Ariz.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), and Ron Johnson (Wis.) ran ahead of Trump. Trump ran ahead of Senator-elect Todd Young (Ind.) and Senator Roy Blunt (Mo.).

    Trump lost Illinois, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and the Republican candidates also lost their races in those states. Senator Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in Illinois, Trump ran ahead of Rep. Joe Heck in Nevada, and Sen. Kelly Ayotte ran ahead of Trump in New Hampshire.

    Missouri Senator Roy Blunt saw the biggest coattails effect from Trump. Trump won 57.1 percent of the vote, while Blunt won 49.4 percent. In Ohio, Trump saw the largest reverse coattails from Senator Rob Portman, who won the state with 58.3 percent of the vote. Trump earned 52.1 percent of the vote in Ohio.

    A full breakdown of the presidential and Senate races appears below.

    *Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races as battleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are from CNN and will be updated after the final results are released.

    2016 Republican Presidential and Senate election results
    State Presidential candidate vote % Senate candidate vote % Vote % Difference
    Alabama Donald Trump Incumbent Richard Shelby
    Totals 62.9% Approveda 64.2% Approveda Shelby +1.3%
    Alaska Donald Trump Incumbent Lisa Murkowski
    Totals 53.3% Approveda 43.8% Approveda Trump +9.5%
    Arizona Donald Trump Incumbent John McCain
    Totals 49.5% Approveda 53.4% Approveda McCain +3.9%
    Arkansas Donald Trump Incumbent John Boozman
    Totals 60.4% Approveda 59.8% Approveda Trump +0.6%
    Florida Donald Trump Incumbent Marco Rubio
    Totals 49.1% Approveda 52.1% Approveda Rubio +3.0%
    Georgia Donald Trump Incumbent Johnny Isakson
    Totals 51.4% Approveda 55.1% Approveda Isakson +3.7%
    Idaho Donald Trump Incumbent Mike Crapo
    Totals 59.0% Approveda 66.0% Approveda Crapo +7.0%
    Indiana Donald Trump Todd Young
    Totals 57.2% Approveda 52.2% Approveda Trump + 5.0%
    Iowa Donald Trump Incumbent Chuck Grassley
    Totals 51.7% Approveda 60.1% Approveda Grassley +8.4%
    Kansas Donald Trump Incumbent Jerry Moran
    Totals 57.2% Approveda 62.4% Approveda Moran +5.2%
    Kentucky Donald Trump Incumbent Rand Paul
    Totals 62.5% Approveda +57.3% Approveda Trump +5.2%
    Louisiana Donald Trump Multiple Republican candidates
    Totals 58.1% Approveda (Race not called) -
    Missouri Donald Trump Incumbent Roy Blunt
    Totals 57.1% Approveda 49.4% Approveda Trump +7.7%
    North Carolina Donald Trump Incumbent Richard Burr
    Totals 50.5% Approveda 51.1% Approveda Burr +0.6%
    North Dakota Donald Trump Incumbent John Hoeven
    Totals 64.1% Approveda 78.6% Approveda Hoeven +14.5%
    Ohio Donald Trump Incumbent Rob Portman
    Totals 52.1% Approveda 58.3% Approveda Portman +6.2%
    Oklahoma Donald Trump Incumbent James Lankford
    Totals 65.3% Approveda 67.7% Approveda Lankford +2.4%
    Pennsylvania Donald Trump Incumbent Pat Toomey
    Totals 48.8% Approveda 48.9% Approveda Toomey +0.1%
    South Carolina Donald Trump Incumbent Tim Scott
    Totals 55.6% Approveda 61.2% Approveda Scott +5.6%
    South Dakota Donald Trump Incumbent John Thune
    Totals 61.5% Approveda 71.8% Approveda Thune +10.3%
    Utah Donald Trump Incumbent Mike Lee
    Totals 45.5% Approveda 67.4% Approveda Lee +21.9%
    Wisconsin Donald Trump Incumbent Ron Johnson
    Totals 47.9% Approveda 50.2% Approveda Johnson +2.3%
    California Donald Trump No Republican on the ballot
    Totals 33.3% Defeatedd No Republican on the ballot -
    Colorado Donald Trump Darryl Glenn
    Totals 44.8% Defeatedd 45.8% Defeatedd Glenn +1.0%
    Connecticut Donald Trump Dan Carter
    Totals 41.6% Defeatedd 35.3% Defeatedd Trump +6.3%
    Hawaii Donald Trump John Carroll
    Totals 30.1% Defeatedd 22.2% Defeatedd Trump +7.9%
    Illinois Donald Trump Incumbent Mark Kirk
    Totals 39.4% Defeatedd 40.2% Defeatedd Kirk +0.8%
    Maryland Donald Trump Kathy Szeliga
    Totals 35.3% Defeatedd 36.4% Defeatedd Szeliga +1.1%
    Nevada Donald Trump Joe Heck
    Totals 45.5% Defeatedd 44.7% Defeatedd Trump +0.8%
    New Hampshire Donald Trump Incumbent Kelly Ayotte
    Totals 47.2% Defeatedd 47.9% Defeatedd Ayotte +0.7%
    New York Donald Trump Wendy Long
    Totals 37.5% Defeatedd 27.5% Defeatedd Trump +10.0%
    Oregon Donald Trump Mark Callahan
    Totals 41.3% Defeatedd 33.9% Defeatedd Trump +7.4%
    Vermont Donald Trump Scott Milne
    Totals 32.6% Defeatedd 33.0% Defeatedd Milne +0.4%
    Washington Donald Trump Chris Vance
    Totals 37.7% Defeatedd 39.2% Defeatedd Vance +1.5%
    Totals Trump's average win: 55.4% Republican senators' average win: 58.6% Republican senators +3.2%

    Presidential impact

    Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm.[22] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

    Voter turnout comparison.JPG

    In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 16 house seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 38.5 seats in the last two midterms.[1]

    Past partisan breakdowns
    Year Democrats Republicans Net change
    2014 188 247 +13 R
    2012 201 234 +8 D
    2010 193 242 +64 R
    2008 257 178 +24 D
    2006 233 202 +22 D

    Could Democrats have reclaimed the House?

    Despite the large Republican majority in the House, a major collapse due to Donald Trump's presidential campaign could have put the House back in play in 2016. This section highlights what was said by pundits on the possibility of Democrats gaining control of Congress.

    • John Sides (The Washington Post) - October 18, 2016: "This model currently predicts that the Democrats will control 204 seats after the 2016 election. That is 16 more than they had after the 2014 election. The margin of error associated with that is plus or minus 8 seats. That forecast implies a very small chance — less than 1 percent — that the Democrats could win the 218 or more seats needed for a majority."[23]
    • Sean Trende (RealClear Politics) - October 8, 2016: "What’s more interesting is the House. When Trump first secured the nomination in March, analysts speculated that he could flip the chamber to Democrats. That speculation subsided over the spring and summer, as Trump’s vote share held and Democratic recruiting efforts sputtered. As of today, RealClearPolitics has Republicans favored to lose about 15 House seats – a significant loss, but not enough to flip control."[24]
    • Jeff Stein (Vox) - October 8, 2016: "But one political analyst I interviewed earlier this campaign thinks an epic Trump collapse might be enough to overcome that built-in advantage. Geoffrey Skelley, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, argues that a Clinton victory of 6 points or more might be enough to put the House back in play."[25]
    • Nate Cohn (The New York Times) - August 23, 2016: "It would not be surprising if the Republican House majority lasted for at least a decade. The structural advantages underpinning it are that strong. The odds of a Clinton presidency are strong, too — and a Democratic White House would probably strengthen the Republican hold on the House, given the tendency for the president’s party to struggle down-ballot. If Democrats are going to retake the House anytime soon, November would probably be their best shot, and as of now it’s not happening."[26]
    • David Wasserman (The Cook Political Report) - June 20, 2016: "At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats (the Cook Political Report rates 22 GOP-held seats as Toss Up, Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic, compared with four Democratic seats in Toss Up, Lean Republican and Likely Republican). In other words, the first few GOP targets are very winnable for Democrats, but the last few needed for a majority would require a wave."[27]


    Committees

    See also: National Republican Congressional Committee

    The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) focuses on building and maintaining a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.[28]

    NRCC targets

    The following Democratic incumbents were announced as targets by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) heading into 2016.[29]

    National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
    District Incumbent Open seat?[30]
    Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
    Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema No
    California's 3rd District John Garamendi No
    California's 7th District Ami Bera No
    California's 26th District Julia Brownley No
    California's 31st District Pete Aguilar No
    California's 36th District Raul Ruiz No
    California's 52nd District Scott Peters No
    Connecticut's 5th District Elizabeth Esty No
    Florida's 2nd District Gwen Graham No
    Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy Yes
    Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos No
    Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson No
    Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan No
    Nebraska's 2nd District Brad Ashford No
    New Hampshire's 2nd District Ann McLane Kuster No
    New Mexico's 3rd District Ben Ray Lujan No
    New York's 3rd District Steve Israel No
    New York's 18th District Sean Maloney No

    Patriot Program

    The NRCC's Patriot Program is designed to help raise money and assist vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election. NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said of those in the program:

    “ Our new Patriots have just shown that they know what it takes to run aggressive, organized, and winning campaigns. They have hit the ground running here in Washington and are tirelessly working hard to help grow the economy and fight for the hard working families and small businesses in their districts. I am proud to call them colleagues and am looking forward to helping ensure that they are able to win re-election and continue to serve beyond 2016.[31][32][33] ”

    Young Guns

    The Young Guns program "supports and mentors challenger and open-seat candidates in races across the country." NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said of the initial candidates of the program, "These 32 candidates all provide a stark contrast to their liberal opponents, whose support of bigger government, more spending and President Obama’s job-destroying agenda have steered our country down a dangerous path. With working families still struggling in this weak economy and our national security under increasing threats, we must elect more Republicans to Congress who will work to strengthen our nation. I am confident that these candidates will continue to work hard for their communities and build strong campaigns as we head into the election year."[34][35][36]

    DCCC

    See also: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) supports campaigns of Democratic candidates for the U.S. House.[28]

    DCCC Frontline

    The DCCC's Frontline program is designed to assist Democratic incumbents who represent vulnerable districts. Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said of the program:

    “ Each one of these members knows what it takes to win tough elections: working hard, standing up for your district, and not taking anything for granted. We are adding them to our Frontline Program, led by Representative Dan Kildee, to maximize their resources and ensure they are able to keep fighting to strengthen middle class economics. You don’t add by subtracting, so the success of our Members is integral to our plan to stay on offense in 2016.[37][33] ”

    The DCCC announced 14 members of the 2016 Frontline Program on February 12, 2015. The following table displays the 2016 members of the Frontline Program.[38]

    Red to Blue

    The DCCC's Red to Blue program exists to highlight Democratic challengers in competitive House races. Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said of the program:

    “ House Democrats are on offense and will pick up seats in November, and these talented and diverse candidates are the foundation of our success. From their campaign teams, to their field game, to their engagement of supporters and voters in their districts, these candidates are ready to take the fight to House Republicans. The American people deserve a House of Representatives that fights for progress and prosperity, not obstruction.[39][33] ”

    Emerging Races is the second tier of the Red to Blue program. According to the DCCC, it includes the districts "where campaigns are on track and working hard to put seats in play."[39]

    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Emerging Races 2016
    District Candidate Open seat?[30]
    Alaska's At-Large District Steve Lindbeck No
    Arizona's 2nd District Matt Heinz No
    California's 21st District Emilio Huerta No
    Illinois' 12th District C.J. Baricevic No
    Indiana's 2nd District Lynn Coleman No
    Michigan's 6th District Paul Clements No
    South Carolina's 5th District Fran Person No

    Campaign finance

    DCCC and NRCC

    The NRCC and the DCCC are the two principal political groups that raise funds to elect congressional candidates. The monthly fundraising figures for each committee throughout the 2016 election cycle are displayed in the table below.

    DCCC and NRCC monthly fundraising
    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee
    Report Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt
    Pre-General $10,205,210 $34,126,554 $21,612,756 $0 $8,345,840 $28,406,074 $26,525,016 $0
    October 2016 $21,104,886 $38,748,576 $45,534,100 $0 $9,864,610 $28,723,765 $46,585,251 $0
    September 2016 $10,999,108 $9,769,721 $63,177,790 $0 $6,658,396 $5,259,604 $65,444,406 $0
    August 2016 $11,986,005 $7,313,148 $61,948,402 $0 $4,559,861 $3,811,379 $64,045,614 $0
    July 2016 $12,082,519 $6,001,526 $57,275,546 $0 $9,344,238 $2,879,015 $63,297,132 $0
    June 2016 $8,080,123 $5,012,480 $51,194,552 $0 $6,156,967 $2,360,778 $56,831,909 $0
    May 2016 $8,585,572 $4,574,142 $48,126,909 $0 $5,354,797 $2,308,889 $53,035,719 $0
    April 2016 $11,321,340 $4,241,723 $44,115,479 $0 $13,965,932 $3,016,854 $49,989,811 $0
    March 2016 $7,149,636 $3,287,942 $37,035,862 $0 $6,333,745 $1,948,367 $39,040,733 $0
    February 2016 $6,431,034 $2,578,738 $33,174,169 $0 $6,483,827 $1,938,307 $34,655,355 $0
    Year-End $6,701,116 $3,557,846 $29,321,872 $0 $8,646,968 $2,222,889 $30,109,835 $0
    December 2015 $4,564,220 $2,807,311 $26,178,602 $0 $2,689,708 $1,942,546 $23,685,756 $0
    November 2015 $5,399,657 $2,739,869 $24,421,693 $0 $5,058,306 $1,957,888 $22,938,594 $0
    October 2015 $6,622,268 $2,560,458 $21,761,905 $0 $3,325,054 $1,785,457 $19,838,176 $0
    September 2015 $4,154,282 $2,608,496 $17,700,095 $0 $2,925,212 $1,907,428 $18,298,579 $0
    August 2015 $4,392,802 $2,669,171 $16,154,309 $0 $3,699,315 $1,821,067 $17,280,795 $0
    July 2015 $6,905,366 $2,591,313 $14,430,678 $0 $7,263,127 $2,525,676 $15,402,546 $0
    June 2015 $4,417,024 $2,487,277 $10,116,625 $0 $3,746,619 $2,302,242 $10,665,096 $0
    May 2015 $5,363,859 $6,455,002 $8,186,878 $0 $5,089,342 $2,805,149 $9,220,720 $0
    April 2015 $8,182,885 $5,260,418 $9,278,020 $4,000,000 $17,310,849 $16,708,324 $6,936,526 $0
    March 2015 $5,157,461 $5,653,299 $6,355,553 $6,500,000 $5,047,436 $2,327,080 $6,334,001 $7,000,000
    February 2015 $6,376,209 $1,674,255 $6,851,392 $10,000,000 $4,448,611 $2,312,236 $3,613,645 $7,500,000

    Prior elections

    DCCC and NRCC yearly fundraising
    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee
    Year Total Receipts Total Expenditures Total Receipts Total Expenditures
    2014 $206,791,979 $206,130,764 $153,488,110 $153,545,450
    2012 $183,843,028 $183,160,429 $155,724,601 $156,728,295
    2010 $163,896,040 $163,582,271 $133,779,108 $132,098,654
    2008 $176,204,612 $176,518,249 $118,324,756 $118,226,373
    2006 $139,994,367 $140,876,916 $176,300,627 $178,063,132

    Campaign issues

    The following section describes public policies that arose during the 114th Congress that became divisive issues on the campaign trail.

    Presidential race

    Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were ascribed negative attributes and were strongly opposed by certain demographics. Due to the unpopularity of these presidential candidates, many congressional candidates sought to tie their opponent to the top of his or her party's ticket.

    Compromise

    USA Today and Suffolk University released a poll on February 1, 2015, that showed that most Americans wanted to see more compromise between the White House and Congress. Of the adults polled, 76 percent stated that they wanted President Obama (D) to compromise more with Congress. To the same degree, 72 percent of polled adults stated they wanted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) to compromise more with President Obama. By party affiliation, 71 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans said they wanted President Obama to compromise. For Senator McConnell, 87 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans wanted him to compromise.[40]

    Affordable Care Act

    Obamacare was one of the dominant issues in the 2014 election and it remained a prominent issue in 2016. The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation conducted multiple polls on opinions regarding Obamacare. In January 2015, 40 percent of participants viewed Obamacare favorably while 46 percent viewed it unfavorably. Another poll also showed that 50 percent of participants felt that it was important to continue the debate over Obamacare. Additionally, 45 percent of participants argued that the debated had gone far enough and the country should focus on other issues. Voters who wanted more debate over Obamacare were more likely to be opposed to the legislation. Those who wanted to focus more on other issues were evenly split in their support of Obamacare.[41]

    Supreme Court and judiciary

    The unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, caused the Supreme Court appointment to fill the vacancy to become an election issue. Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate, allowing the Republican-controlled Senate to deny any nominee chosen by President Barack Obama. Several Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, declared that the next president should have the responsibility of appointing the new justice. McConnell said in a statement, "The American people‎ should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President."[42]

    This raised the issue of Republican obstructionism in battleground states. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said of the issue, "I believe that many of the mainstream Republicans, when the president nominates a mainstream nominee, will not want to follow Mitch McConnell over the cliff. The American people don't like this obstruction. When you go right off the bat and say, 'I don't care who he nominates, I am going to oppose him,' that's not going to fly."[42][43]

    Immigration

    The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) is a program established by executive action on June 15, 2012, that allows undocumented individuals who were brought to the United States as children to receive relief from being deported for a period of time if they meet certain criteria. That action was followed by the Deferred Action for Parents of U.S. Citizens and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA), which was announced on November 20, 2014, shielding the undocumented parents of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents from deportation.[44]

    Both programs came under fire in the presidential race, prompting the call for immigration reform. Securing the southern border with Mexico was also a major facet of the immigration issue.

    Iran nuclear deal

    See also: Iran nuclear agreement, 2015

    The P5+1 and the European Union, also known as the E3+3, reached an agreement with Iran regarding the development of its nuclear program on July 14, 2015.[45] The deal limits Iran's nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief.[46]

    President Barack Obama and the majority of congressional Democrats lauded the deal, while Republicans largely opposed the deal.

    Special elections

    There were seven special elections required in the House in the 2015-2016 election cycle. Four took place earlier in the year, while three were held at the same time as the general election.

    District Prior Incumbent General Election Candidates Election Date Winner Partisan Switch?
    New York's 11th Michael Grimm Republican Party Daniel Donovan
    Democratic Party Vincent Gentile
    Green Party James Lane    		 May 5, 2015 Republican Party Daniel Donovan No
    Mississippi's 1st Alan Nunnelee Democratic Party Walter Zinn
    Republican Party Boyce Adams
    Republican Party Nancy Collins
    Republican Party Trent Kelly
    Republican Party Quentin Whitwell
    Republican Party Chip Mills
    Republican Party Greg Pirkle
    Republican Party Daniel Sparks
    Republican Party Mike Tagert
    Republican Party Sam Adcock
    Republican Party Ed Holliday
    Republican Party Starner Jones
    Republican Party Henry Ross    		 May 12, 2015 Republican Party Trent Kelly No
    Illinois' 18th Aaron Schock Democratic Party Robert Mellon
    Republican Party Darin LaHood    		 September 10, 2015 Republican Party Darin LaHood No
    Ohio's 8th John Boehner Democratic Party Corey Foister
    Republican Party Warren Davidson
    Green Party James Condit, Jr.
    		 June 7, 2016 Republican Party Warren Davidson No
    Pennsylvania's 2nd Chaka Fattah Democratic Party Dwight Evans
    Republican Party James Jones    		 November 8, 2016 Democratic Party Dwight Evans No
    Hawaii's 1st Mark Takai Democratic Party Colleen Hanabusa
    Democratic Party Peter Cross
    Democratic Party Angela Aulani Kaaihue
    Democratic Party Howard Kim
    Democratic Party Javier Ocasio
    Republican Party Shirlene Ostrov
    Libertarian Party Alan Yim
    Grey.png Calvin Griffin
    Grey.png Yvonne Perry
    Grey.png Peter Plotzeneder
    		 November 8, 2016 Democratic Party Colleen Hanabusa No
    Kentucky's 1st Ed Whitfield Republican Party James Comer
    Democratic Party Sam Gaskins    		 November 8, 2016 Republican Party James Comer No


    Filing deadlines by state

    The table below lists the 2016 congressional primary dates and filing deadlines for each state.[47]

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 United States House of Representatives, "Party Divisions of the House of Representatives," accessed September 8, 2015
    2. ↑ Roll Call, "Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?" January 13, 2015
    3. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "House 2016: Gridlock Ahead for a Possible Clinton Administration?" May 28, 2015
    4. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2016 House Race Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
    5. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 House," accessed November 6, 2016
    6. ↑ The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
    7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Due to court-ordered redistricting, Florida's 2nd and 10th Congressional Districts and Virginia's 4th Congressional District are expected to flip partisan control. However, Ballotpedia predicts that these races will not be competitive.
    8. ↑ ABC 6, "Rep. Chaka Fattah indicted in racketeering case," July 29, 2015
    9. ↑ The Hill, "Rep. Chaka Fattah found guilty on corruption charges," June 21, 2016
    10. ↑ Politico, "Fattah submits resignation but wants to stay until October," June 22, 2016
    11. ↑ ABC 6, "Rep. Chaka Fattah resigns effective immediately," June 23, 2016
    12. ↑ Roll Call, "The Unprecedented Action of One Anti-Abortion Group," May 11, 2016
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Politico, "Koch-backed group targets first GOP incumbent in primary," May 12, 2016
    14. ↑ The New York Times, "Donald Trump Makes His First Congressional Endorsement," June 6, 2016
    15. ↑ The New York Times, "North Carolina Primary Results," June 7, 2016
    16. ↑ The New York Times, "Virginia Primary Results," June 14, 2016
    17. ↑ Politico, "GOP Rep. Scott Rigell retiring," January 14, 2016
    18. ↑ National Review, "What’s Going On in Kansas’s Big First?" August 2, 2016
    19. ↑ Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
    20. ↑ ABC News, "US Rep. Corrine Brown Indicted After Fraud Investigation," accessed July 8, 2016
    21. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 9, 2016
    22. ↑ United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
    23. ↑ The Washington Post, "Will Donald Trump cost Republicans the House? It’s very unlikely," October 18, 2016
    24. ↑ RealClear Politics, "The House May Be in Play," October 8, 2016
    25. ↑ Vox, "A Trump collapse could give Democrats back the House. Here’s the math," October 8, 2016
    26. ↑ The New York Times, "What Are the Chances That Democrats Retake the House?" August 23, 2016
    27. ↑ Five Thirty Eight, "The GOP’s House Majority Is Safe … Right?" June 20, 2016
    28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 NRCC "About," accessed September 8, 2015 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "ab" defined multiple times with different content
    29. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces 2016 Top Democrat Targets," February 18, 2015
    30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 An open seat refers to a race in which the incumbent is not seeking re-election.
    31. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: NRCC Announces 12 Members in Patriot Program," February 13, 2015
    32. ↑ NRCC, "Patriot Program," accessed September 28, 2016
    33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 33.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
    34. ↑ NRCC, "32 Congressional Candidates Announced “On the Radar” as Part of NRCC’s Young Guns Program," November 19, 2015
    35. ↑ NRCC, "Young Guns," accessed September 28, 2016
    36. ↑ NRCC, "On the Radar," accessed September 28, 2016
    37. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline Democrats 2015-2016," February 12, 2015
    38. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: DCCC Announces 14 Incumbents in Frontline Program," February 12, 2015
    39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 DCCC, "Red to Blue," accessed September 28, 2016
    40. ↑ USA Today, "Poll: Americans want compromise between Congress & Obama," February 1, 2015
    41. ↑ Kaiser Family Foundation, "Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: January 2015," January 28, 2015
    42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 NPR, "Scalia's Death Will Cast A Long Shadow Across This Year's Senate Races," February 15, 2016
    43. ↑ Los Angeles Times, "In search for Scalia's successor, Obama may see GOP opposition as incentive to select a liberal," February 14, 2016
    44. ↑ NPR, "As 2016 Elections Loom, So Does A Possible End To DACA," January 3, 2016
    45. ↑ The Guardian, "Iran nuclear deal reached in Vienna," July 14, 2015
    46. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Iran, World Powers Reach Nuclear Deal," July 14, 2015
    47. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2016 Preliminary Presidential and Congressional Primary Dates," accessed September 21, 2015
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