Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024
← 2022
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Florida's 2nd Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: April 26, 2024 |
Primary: August 20, 2024 General: November 5, 2024 |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Florida |
Race ratings |
DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th Florida elections, 2024 U.S. Congress elections, 2024 U.S. Senate elections, 2024 U.S. House elections, 2024 |
All U.S. House districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2024. The general election was November 5, 2024. The primary was August 20, 2024. The filing deadline was April 26, 2024. The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.[1] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.[2] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 59.8%-40.2%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 55.0%-44.0%.[3]
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
- Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (August 20 Republican primary)
- Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (August 20 Democratic primary)
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Florida District 2
Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated Yen Bailey in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Neal Dunn (R) | 61.6 | 247,957 |
![]() | Yen Bailey (D) ![]() | 38.4 | 154,323 |
Total votes: 402,280 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Yen Bailey advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 2.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Meghann Hovey (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2
Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated Rhonda Woodward in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2 on August 20, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Neal Dunn | 82.7 | 69,113 |
Rhonda Woodward ![]() | 17.3 | 14,456 |
Total votes: 83,569 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
The Holmes, Washington, Jackson, Bay, Gulf, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, and Walton County Democratic Executive Committee State Committee members selected Yen Bailey to replace Meghann Hovey as the party's nominee after Hovey withdrew from the race.[4][5]
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "A Tallahassee-based attorney and Tulane University and Florida State University Law School graduate, Yen has dedicated her career to public service. She served as a Senior Attorney for the Guardian ad Litem Program and spent over 13 years as an ethics attorney at The Florida Bar. Committed to her family, Yen stepped away from her law career at the Bar to care for her elderly father. Yen is a proud wife and mother. She cherishes time with her husband, Steve Bailey, a lawyer and professor at Florida State University and former Army Green Beret, and their two teenage sons. Yen Bailey is the Democratic candidate for Florida’s Second Congressional District."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 2 in 2024.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Florida
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
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Yen Bailey (D)
Affordability and Working Families: Recognizing the struggles of everyday Floridians, Yen Bailey supports policies aimed at improving quality of life. This includes fighting for affordable childcare, paid parental and family leave, healthcare access, and measures to combat price gouging.
Florida’s environment is integral to its identity and our culture. The environment in Florida is under attack by the Republican-controlled state government, with drilling in the Apalachicola River basin, and a newly proposed plan to completely commercialize our state parks with hotels, golf courses, and other artificial recreational activities. This would completely destroy our natural environments. Yen is going to make a point to draw attention to these highly unpopular plans, which are detested across the political spectrum.
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
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Yen Bailey (D)
Campaign finance
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Neal Dunn | Republican Party | $1,648,135 | $1,803,683 | $89,458 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Yen Bailey | Democratic Party | $46,560 | $310 | $15,361 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]
Race ratings: Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Noteworthy ballot measures
- See also: Florida 2024 ballot measures
Two notable ballot measures were on the November 5, 2024, ballot in Florida. One would legalize marijuana possession under three ounces (Amendment 3), and the other would establish a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability (Amendment 4). A 60% supermajority vote is required for the approval of both amendments.
Observers and officials commented on whether the amendments would increase turnout statewide.
- Wendy Sartory Link, the Supervisor of Elections for Palm Beach County, said: “A presidential election gets people excited and brings people out. But you might have folks who may not have cared as much or been as motivated to get out to vote for a president or all of the other races. Now, these amendments might just drive them out.”[10]
- Brad Coker, the CEO of the Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy firm, said of Amendment 4: "It'll bring out younger voters of all kinds and more white, female voters, both groups which lean heavy Democratic... It’ll definitely help turn out voters in what for many was looking like a lackluster choice in the presidential race between Biden and Trump.”[11]
- Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell (D) said: “With voters paying more attention to down-ballot races, I’m optimistic we can have a reverse coattails effect where we start to drive turnout and help improve the numbers at the presidential level.”[12]
- Republican pollster Ryan Tyson disputed the idea that the amendments would increase turnout for Democrats, saying of Amendment 4: "Nobody is trying to say that abortion doesn’t animate their base to turn out — we’ve seen that everywhere... However, we haven’t seen them turn out voters that wouldn’t have already turned out, like in a presidential year."[13]
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R) said of Amendment 4: “People are going to vote, they’re going to come out and vote and I don’t think [the abortion rights measure] is going to change any turnout patterns.”[14]
Amendment 3
A "yes" vote supported legalizing marijuana for adults 21 years old and older and allowing individuals to possess up to three ounces of marijuana. |
A "no" vote opposed legalizing marijuana for adult use in Florida. |
To read more about supporters and opponents of Amendment 3, along with their arguments, click on the box below.
Amendment 4
A "yes" vote supported adding the following language to the Florida Constitution’s Declaration of Rights: “… no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” Amendment 4 maintained the existing constitutional provision that permitted a law requiring parents to be notified before a minor can receive an abortion. |
A "no" vote opposed amending the Florida Constitution's Declaration of Rights to provide that the state cannot "... prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider." |
To read more about supporters and opponents of Amendment 4, along with their arguments, click on the box below.
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Florida in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.
Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
Florida | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party | 5,181[17] | $10,440.00 | 4/26/2024 | Source |
Florida | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 5,181[18] | $6,960.00 | 4/26/2024 | Source |
==District analysis==
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.
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This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Florida.
Florida U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
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Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
2024 | 28 | 28 | 1 | 101 | 56 | 9 | 21 | 53.6% | 15 | 55.6% | ||||
2022 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 151 | 56 | 14 | 24 | 67.9% | 17 | 73.9% | ||||
2020 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 114 | 54 | 10 | 19 | 53.7% | 10 | 40.0% | ||||
2018 | 27 | 27 | 4 | 104 | 54 | 19 | 12 | 57.4% | 11 | 47.8% | ||||
2016 | 27 | 27 | 7 | 100 | 54 | 11 | 13 | 44.4% | 9 | 47.4% | ||||
2014 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 75 | 54 | 5 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 | 29.6% |
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Florida in 2024. Information below was calculated on May 7, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
One hundred three candidates ran for Florida’s 28 U.S. House districts, including 42 Democrats and 61 Republicans. That’s 3.68 candidates per district, less than in the previous three election cycles. There were 5.43 candidates per district in 2022, 4.22 candidates per district in 2020, and 3.86 in 2018.
The 8th Congressional District was the only open district, meaning no incumbents filed to run. That’s the fewest open seats in Florida since 2014 when no seats were open. Incumbent Rep. Bill Posey (R-8th) did not run for re-election because he is retired from public office.
Seven candidates—incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-23rd) and six Republicans—ran for the 23rd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.
Thirty primaries—nine Democratic and 21 Republican—were contested in 2024. Thirty-eight primaries were contested in 2022, 29 primaries were contested in 2020, and 31 primaries were contested in 2018.
Fifteen incumbents—two Democrats and 13 Republicans—were in contested primaries in Florida in 2024. That’s less than the 17 incumbents in contested primaries in 2022 but more than the 10 incumbents in contested primaries in 2020.
The 20th Congressional District is guaranteed to Democrats because no Republicans will appear on the ballot. Democrats filed to run in every congressional district, meaning none are guaranteed to Republicans.Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 2nd the 170th most Republican district nationally.[19]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
2020 presidential results in Florida's 2nd based on 2024 district lines | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() | |||
44.0% | 55.0% |
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[20] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Baseline ![]() |
Republican Baseline ![]() |
Difference | ||
41.3 | 57.6 | R+16.3 |
Presidential voting history
- See also: Presidential election in Florida, 2020
Florida presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 17 Democratic wins
- 14 Republican wins
Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Winning Party | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | D | R | R | D | D | R | R |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Florida's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Florida | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
Democratic | 0 | 8 | 8 |
Republican | 2 | 18 | 20 |
Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vacancies | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Total | 2 | 28 | 30 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Florida's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
State executive officials in Florida, May 2024 | |
---|---|
Office | Officeholder |
Governor | ![]() |
Lieutenant Governor | ![]() |
Secretary of State | ![]() |
Attorney General | ![]() |
State legislature
Florida State Senate
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 12 | |
Republican Party | 28 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 40 |
Florida House of Representatives
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 36 | |
Republican Party | 84 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 120 |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twenty-five years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
District history
The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.
2022
General election
General election for U.S. House Florida District 2
Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated incumbent Alfred Lawson in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Neal Dunn (R) | 59.8 | 180,236 |
![]() | Alfred Lawson (D) | 40.2 | 121,153 |
Total votes: 301,389 | ||||
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If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Alfred Lawson advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 2.
Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Neal Dunn advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2.
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House Florida District 2
Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated Kim O'Connor in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Neal Dunn (R) | 97.9 | 305,337 |
![]() | Kim O'Connor (No Party Affiliation) (Write-in) | 2.1 | 6,662 |
Total votes: 311,999 | ||||
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If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Kristy Thripp (D)
Democratic primary election
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Neal Dunn advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2.
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Florida District 2
Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated Bob Rackleff in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Neal Dunn (R) | 67.4 | 199,335 |
![]() | Bob Rackleff (D) ![]() | 32.6 | 96,233 |
Total votes: 295,568 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
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If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 2
Bob Rackleff defeated Brandon Scott Peters in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Bob Rackleff ![]() | 50.8 | 29,395 |
![]() | Brandon Scott Peters | 49.2 | 28,483 |
Total votes: 57,878 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2
Incumbent Neal Dunn advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | ||
✔ | ![]() | Neal Dunn |
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Mary Thomas (R)
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned on Nov. 13, 2024, after winning re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ Florida Politics, "Yen Bailey named Democratic nominee in CD 2," July 29, 2024
- ↑ Florida Department of State, "Campaign Documents Search," accessed August 27, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ ABC 33/40, "Abortion, marijuana ballot measures may boost Florida voter turnout" accessed June 17, 2024
- ↑ USA Today, "Abortion, marijuana measures raise hope for Democrats in Trump's home state" accessed June 17, 2024
- ↑ WCJB, "Florida Democrats optimistic about election with abortion measure on November ballot" accessed June 17, 2024
- ↑ The New York Times, "Democrats See Glimmers of Hope in Florida. Are They Seeing Things?" accessed June 17, 2024
- ↑ NOTUS, "Republicans Think Abortion Rights Supporters Will Vote for Them Too" accessed June 21, 2024
- ↑ Floridians Protecting Freedom, "Home," accessed May 17, 2023
- ↑ Florida Voice for the Unborn, "Home," accessed December 21, 2023
- ↑ Average number of signatures required for all congressional districts. Petition signatures only required in lieu of a filing fee.
- ↑ Average number of signatures required for all congressional districts. Petition signatures only required in lieu of a filing fee.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
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