California's 51st Congressional District election, 2024

← 2022
California's 51st Congressional District
Top-two primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 8, 2023
Primary: March 5, 2024 General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
California's 51st Congressional District U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 37th • 38th • 39th • 40th • 41st • 42nd • 43rd • 44th • 45th • 46th • 47th • 48th • 49th • 50th • 51st • 52nd California elections, 2024 U.S. Congress elections, 2024 U.S. Senate elections, 2024 U.S. House elections, 2024 Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. House districts, including the 51st Congressional District of California, held elections in 2024. The general election was November 5, 2024. The primary was March 5, 2024. The filing deadline was December 8, 2023.

All 435 U.S. House seats were up for election in 2024. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 220 to 212 majority with three vacancies. Forty-five members of the U.S. House did not run for re-election. To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Democratic candidate won 61.9%-38.1%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 62.5%-35.2%.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

• California's 51st Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Sara Jacobs defeated Bill Wells in the general election for U.S. House California District 51 on November 5, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Sara Jacobs (D)	58.9	122,245
		Bill Wells (R)	41.1	85,329

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. Source	Total votes: 207,574
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Sara Jacobs and Bill Wells defeated Stan Caplan and Hilaire Shioura in the primary for U.S. House California District 51 on March 5, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Sara Jacobs (D)	57.4	90,901
✔		Bill Wells (R)	39.1	61,923
		Stan Caplan (No party preference)	2.0	3,164
		Hilaire Shioura (No party preference)	1.6	2,496

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 158,484
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Saul Rodriguez (D)

Candidate profiles

There were no candidate profiles created for this race. Candidate profiles would have appeared here as candidates completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Voting information

See also: Voting in California

Election information in California: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

• In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
• By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 21, 2024
• Online: Oct. 21, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

• In-person: N/A
• By mail: N/A by N/A
• Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

• In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
• By mail: Postmarked by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Varies to Nov. 4, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Sara Jacobs	Democratic Party	$1,675,480	$1,594,010	$171,497	As of October 16, 2024
Bill Wells	Republican Party	$758,406	$742,531	$24,054	As of October 16, 2024
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: California's 51st Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in California in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
California	U.S. House	All candidates	40-60	$1,740.00	12/8/2023	Source

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

• District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
• Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
• Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
• State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

• District map
• Competitiveness
• Presidential elections
• State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.

California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	52	52	7	241	52	42	80.8%	36	80.0%
2022	52	52	5	272	52	52	100.0%	47	100.0%
2020	53	53	4	262	53	47	88.7%	32	64.0%
2018	53	53	2	244	53	41	77.4%	39	76.5%
2016	53	53	4	202	53	40	75.5%	36	73.5%
2014	53	53	6	209	53	38	71.7%	32	68.1%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.

The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.

Incumbents Barbara Lee (D-12th), Adam Schiff (D-30th), and Katie Porter (D-47th) ran for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) didn't run for re-election. Incumbents Grace Napolitano (D-31st), Tony Cárdenas (D-29th), and Anna Eshoo (D-16th) retired from public office. One incumbent—Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-20th)—left Congress before the end of his term. A special election was held to fill his seat before the general election.

Fifteen candidates—12 Democrats, two Republicans, and one nonpartisan—ran in the open 30th district, the most candidates running for a seat in 2024.

Forty-two primaries were contested, the fewest since 2018, when 41 were contested. All 52 primaries were contested in 2022, and 47 were in 2020. In California, which uses a top-two primary system, a primary is contested if more than two candidates file to run.

Incumbents ran in 35 of the 42 contested primaries. That’s lower than 2022, when 47 incumbents ran in contested primaries, but higher than every other year since 2014. In 2020, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries. Thirty-nine incumbents did so in 2018, 36 in 2016, and 32 in 2014.

Democratic candidates ran in every district. Republican candidates ran in every district except one—the 37th. Two Democrats, including incumbent Sydney Kamlage-Dove, one nonpartisan candidate, and one Peace and Freedom Party member ran in that district.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+12. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 51st the 120th most Democratic district nationally.

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in California's 51st based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
62.5%	35.2%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district. The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
60.4	39.1	D+21.3

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in California, 2020

California presidential election results (1900-2020)

• 15 Democratic wins
• 15 Republican wins
• 1 other win

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	R	R	R	P	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

See also: Party control of California state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of California's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from California
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	40	42
Republican	0	12	12
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	52	54

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in California's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in California, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Gavin Newsom
Lieutenant Governor	Eleni Kounalakis
Secretary of State	Shirley Weber
Attorney General	Rob Bonta

State legislature

California State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	32
	Republican Party	8
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		40

California State Assembly

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	62
	Republican Party	18
	Independent	1
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		80

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Assembly	D	D	D	S	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

District history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.

2022

See also: California's 51st Congressional District election, 2022

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Sara Jacobs defeated Stan Caplan in the general election for U.S. House California District 51 on November 8, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Sara Jacobs (D)	61.9	144,186
		Stan Caplan (R)	38.1	88,886

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 233,072
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Sara Jacobs and Stan Caplan defeated Jose Cortes and Barrett Holman Leak in the primary for U.S. House California District 51 on June 7, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Sara Jacobs (D)	60.5	91,329
✔		Stan Caplan (R)	37.2	56,183
		Jose Cortes (Peace and Freedom Party of California)	2.2	3,343
		Barrett Holman Leak (D) (Write-in)	0.0	55

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 150,910
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Benjamin de Ganna (D)

2020

See also: California's 51st Congressional District election, 2020

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Juan Vargas defeated Juan Hidalgo in the general election for U.S. House California District 51 on November 3, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Juan Vargas (D)	68.3	165,596
		Juan Hidalgo (R)	31.7	76,841

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 242,437
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Juan Vargas and Juan Hidalgo advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 51 on March 3, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Juan Vargas (D)	71.4	77,744
✔		Juan Hidalgo (R)	28.6	31,209

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 108,953
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Aeiramique Glass Blake (D)
• Alejandro Rodriguez (R)

2018

See also: California's 51st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 51

Incumbent Juan Vargas defeated Juan Hidalgo in the general election for U.S. House California District 51 on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Juan Vargas (D)	71.2	109,527
		Juan Hidalgo (R)	28.8	44,301

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 153,828
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 51

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 51 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Juan Vargas (D)	64.0	50,132
✔		Juan Hidalgo (R)	15.3	11,979
		John Renison Jr. (R)	14.0	10,972
		Juan Carlos Mercado (Independent)	3.1	2,452
		Kevin Mitchell (Independent)	1.9	1,473
		Louis Fuentes (R)	1.7	1,310

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 78,318
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

See also

California	2024 primaries	2024 U.S. Congress elections
California congressional delegation Voting in California California elections: 2024 • 2023 • 2022 • 2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018	Democratic primary battlegrounds Republican primary battlegrounds U.S. Senate Democratic primaries U.S. Senate Republican primaries U.S. House Democratic primaries U.S. House Republican primaries	U.S. Congress elections U.S. Senate elections U.S. House elections Special elections Ballot access

External links

• Search Google News for this topic

Footnotes

[show]

California's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Laphonza Butler (D)

Alex Padilla (D)

Representatives

District 1

Doug LaMalfa (R)

District 2

Jared Huffman (D)

District 3

Kevin Kiley (R)

District 4

Mike Thompson (D)

District 5

Tom McClintock (R)

District 6

Ami Bera (D)

District 7

Doris Matsui (D)

District 8

John Garamendi (D)

District 9

Josh Harder (D)

District 10

Mark DeSaulnier (D)

District 11

Nancy Pelosi (D)

District 12

Barbara Lee (D)

District 13

John Duarte (R)

District 14

Eric Swalwell (D)

District 15

Kevin Mullin (D)

District 16

Anna Eshoo (D)

District 17

Ro Khanna (D)

District 18

Zoe Lofgren (D)

District 19

Jimmy Panetta (D)

District 20

Vince Fong (R)

District 21

Jim Costa (D)

District 22

David Valadao (R)

District 23

Jay Obernolte (R)

District 24

Salud Carbajal (D)

District 25

Raul Ruiz (D)

District 26

Julia Brownley (D)

District 27

Mike Garcia (R)

District 28

Judy Chu (D)

District 29

Tony Cárdenas (D)

District 30

Adam Schiff (D)

District 31

Grace Napolitano (D)

District 32

Brad Sherman (D)

District 33

Pete Aguilar (D)

District 34

Jimmy Gomez (D)

District 35

Norma Torres (D)

District 36

Ted Lieu (D)

District 37

Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)

District 38

Linda Sánchez (D)

District 39

Mark Takano (D)

District 40

Young Kim (R)

District 41

Ken Calvert (R)

District 42

Robert Garcia (D)

District 43

Maxine Waters (D)

District 44

Nanette Barragán (D)

District 45

Michelle Steel (R)

District 46

Lou Correa (D)

District 47

Katie Porter (D)

District 48

Darrell Issa (R)

District 49

Mike Levin (D)

District 50

Scott Peters (D)

District 51

Sara Jacobs (D)

District 52

Juan Vargas (D)

Democratic Party (42)

Republican Party (12)