California's 31st Congressional District elections, 2014

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California's 31st Congressional District
General Election Date
November 4, 2014
Primary Date
June 3, 2014
November 4 Election Winner:
Pete Aguilar Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Gary Miller Republican Party
Gary Miller.jpg
Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean D[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean D[2]

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2014 U.S. Senate Elections
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SimmeringRace.jpg

The 31st Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014.

Pete Aguilar (D) defeated Paul Chabot (R) by just under 3,500 votes to win retiring Rep. Gary Miller's seat. Chabot conceded two days after the election.[3]

Ballotpedia identified California's 31st Congressional District as a 2014 "simmering" race because the district had a slight Democratic lean, and President Barack Obama won 57 percent of the vote in 2008 and 2012.[4] In addition, the seat was being vacated by Miller. Miller was able to win re-election in 2012 due to four Democratic candidates splitting the primary vote, which allowed the two Republican candidates to advance past the primary. The same scenario almost occurred in 2014 but was prevented because three Republican candidates ran, rather than two.

Throughout the campaign, Aguilar received more support and was better-funded than Chabot. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aided Aguilar's campaign, but Chabot was left to campaign on his own without the help of the National Republican Congressional Committee.[5] Heading into the final weeks of the election, Aguilar had $293,144 in cash on hand, while Chabot only had $151,687, according to October 2014 Federal Election Commission reports.[6][7]

After losing to Aguilar, Chabot released a report blaming his loss on a lack of support and funding from national Republican groups. The following statement was included in the report: “On a level and fair playing field, GOP Nominee Chabot could have won. He constantly had high polling numbers among high propensity voters for one simple reason – that’s the only group he could afford to ‘communicate with.’ . . . With additional resources, he could have matched the breadth of DEM Nominee Aguilar and (the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) to reach the mid and lower level propensity voters, and won those majorities as well, based on polling. Unfortunately, there was a forgone (sic) conclusion that this race was lost, from day-1 (sic).”[8]

Chabot released the report with the hope that the GOP would examine his loss and losses in other districts in California and create a better plan for 2016. He said, "My hope is that this really is a learning experience for the party, because not only did they lose this seat, but they lost every seat in the state of California where they were challenging a Democratic incumbent. So the GOP wave crashed in California. They’ve got to support candidates better when they were going up against a Democrat who has full party support. ... You can’t treat candidates that way, because otherwise they’re not going to run.”[9]

According to Jack Pitney, professor of American History at Claremont McKenna College, “Bottom line, he’s [Chabot] got a point. They had a really successful year nationwide, but it could have been even better, if they had just allocated their resources a little differently.”[9]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 7, 2014
June 3, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election. In states that do not use a top-two system, all parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to.[10][11]

Unlike the top-two format used in some states (Louisiana and Georgia special elections for example), a general election between the top-two candidates in California occurs regardless of whether the top candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round of elections.

As of August 2024, California was one of five states to use a top-two primary system, or a variation of the top-two system. See here for more information.

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by May 19, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 20, 2014 (the 15th calendar day before that election).[12]

See also: California elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Gary Miller (R), who was first elected in 1998. Miller did not seek re-election in 2014.

California's 31st Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes the southwestern corner of San Bernardino County.[13]

Candidates

General election candidates

Republican Party Paul Chabot
Democratic Party Pete Aguilar Green check mark transparent.png


June 3, 2014, primary results

Democratic Party Pete Aguilar Approveda
Democratic Party Joe Baca - Former U.S. rep
Democratic Party Danny Tillman
Democratic Party Eloise Gomez Reyes
Republican Party Lesli Gooch - Aide to retiring Rep. Gary Miller
Republican Party Paul Chabot Approveda
Republican Party Ryan Downing

Withdrew

Republican Party John Valdivia

Election results

General election

U.S. House, California District 31 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPete Aguilar 51.7% 51,622
     Republican Paul Chabot 48.3% 48,162
Total Votes 99,784
Source: California Secretary of State

Primary election

U.S. House, California District 31 Primary, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Chabot 26.6% 14,163
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPete Aguilar 17.4% 9,242
     Republican Lesli Gooch 17% 9,033
     Democratic Eloise Reyes 15.9% 8,461
     Democratic Joe Baca 11.2% 5,954
     Democratic Danny Tillman 8.7% 4,659
     Republican Ryan Downing 3.3% 1,737
Total Votes 53,249
Source: California Secretary of State

Race background

Cal Voters for Honest Government

A secretive group, Cal Voters for Honest Government, spent money to support Joe Baca's campaign. The group sent out mailers, made phone calls and put up billboards in support of Baca. The group failed to disclose its spending to the Federal Election Commission, as required by law.[14]

Primary election

A recount of the primary race began on June 25, three weeks after the election, to determine whether Pete Aguilar (D) or third-place finisher Lesli Gooch (R) would advance to the general election to face Paul Chabot (R). At the time, Gooch trailed Aguilar by just 209 votes. Gooch conceded after the first day of the recount yielded her only one additional vote.[15] Aguilar went on to defeat Chabot in the general election on November 4, 2014.

Oct. 20 debate

Aguilar and Chabot met to debate at the University of Redlands on October 20. They discussed immigration, climate change, healthcare and ISIS, among other issues. Below are some of their statements.[16]

Immigration

  • Aguilar: Aguilar argued for comprehensive reform and a path to citizenship. He said, “We need to offer a path to citizenship if they’re willing to pay taxes and submit to a background check. It’s good for the economy and it keeps our region together. The notion that you can just deport 11 million people is the wrong policy. My opponent supported a radical Arizona proposal here in California that would support racially profiling. That’s the wrong policy for this region and San Bernardino County.”[16]
  • Chabot: Chabot argued for border security. He said, “If you’re a mom and dad in Mexico or Latin American countries with corruption and violence you want to get out. We should mandate our federal aid dollars go to Mexico to do two things, increasing societal rule of law and rooting out corrupting, so the good people of Mexico want to stay safe in their country.”[16]

Climate change

  • Aguilar: Aguilar argued that climate change was a significant problem that needed to be addressed immediately, and he also accused Chabot of not believing in climate change. He said, “Local communities and the state of California are taking the initiative to do this on their own because we lack federal leadership. If the federal government can act, then local communities will follow suit. We also believe here in this community that you think globally and you act locally. ...this is the issue of our time. This is what this election boils down to. Clear contrasts like this issue. We need to address climate change. We need to have emissions targets, we need to take action at the federal level.”[16]
  • Chabot: Chabot expressed his support for renewable energy and protecting the environment but criticized environmental policies that hurt American businesses. He said, “Certainly we want clean air and clean water for our kids. But the extremism has driven out business, closed down companies in Colton and is hurting the middle class. We need to be very cautious about how we do this for the strength, security and safety for the United States of America.”[16]

Healthcare

  • Aguilar: Aguilar argued that the Affordable Care Act should be fixed. He said, “what we can’t do is go back to a time when insurance companies get to make the decisions on who is covered and who isn’t. We need to keep what works and we need to fix what doesn’t. What we can’t do is go back to a time when being a woman was a pre existing condition.”[16]
  • Chabot: Chabot argued that the Affordable Care Act was detrimental to middle class Americans and should be reformed. He said, “I want everyone to be able to keep their doctors, but I do think we should cover pre-existing conditions. I think it’s a critical compassionate part of this. What we need to understand is that government is not the answer to these solutions. We already have a nationally run healthcare system ladies and gentlemen. It’s called the VA and it has failed our veterans across the country.”[16]

ISIS

  • Aguilar: Aguilar expressed his support for targeted air strikes against ISIS. He said, “...I support the intelligence community working in the region in order to have key strikes and destroy them. If we have learned anything over the last 14 years is fighting ideology alone can’t be done with ground troops.”[16]
  • Chabot: Drawing on his experience in the Navy and serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, Chabot disagreed with Obama's handling of ISIS. He said, “As soldiers we all want peace, but this is a battle of good versus evil and this battle will not be won by air alone. Going into battle, sending your sons and daughters into battle is one of the most important tasks of the Commander in Chief. I don’t take it lightly. I know what it’s like. I left my wife and our six month old baby to go overseas. We also know we have a duty as Americans to protect and defend our great nation.”[16]

Key votes

Below are important votes that Miller cast during the 113th Congress.

HR 676

See also: Boehner's lawsuit against the Obama administration

Yea3.png On July 30, 2014, the U.S. House approved a resolution 225 to 201 to sue President Barack Obama for exceeding his constitutional authority. Five Republicans—Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Paul Broun of Georgia, Scott Garrett of New Jersey, Walter Jones of North Carolina and Steve Stockman of Texas—voted with Democrats against the lawsuit.[17] Miller joined the other 224 Republicans in favor of the lawsuit. All Democrats voted against the resolution.[18][19]

Government shutdown

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

Yea3.png On September 30, 2013, the House passed a final stopgap spending bill before the shutdown went into effect. The bill included a one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate and would have also stripped the bill of federal subsidies for congressional members and staff. It passed through the House with a vote of 228-201.[20] At 1 a.m. on October 1, 2013, one hour after the shutdown officially began, the House voted to move forward with going to a conference. In short order, Sen. Harry Reid rejected the call to conference.[21] Gary Miller voted for the stopgap spending bill that would have delayed the individual mandate.[22]

Yea3.png The shutdown ended on October 16, 2013, when the House took a vote on HR 2775 after it was approved by the Senate. The bill to reopen the government lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funded the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.[23] The House passed the legislation shortly after the Senate, by a vote of 285-144, with all 144 votes against the legislation coming from Republican members. Gary Miller voted for HR 2775.[24]

Endorsements

Pete Aguilar

The following Democratic representatives endorsed Aguilar in his primary battle:[25][26][27]

  • Aguilar received the backing of the California Democratic Party at its state convention. He received the support of 74 percent of the delegates compared to Reyes' 18 percent.[28]
  • A full list of endorsements can be found here.

Eloise Gomez Reyes

  • Reyes also received the endorsement of former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis. She said, "In this day and age when the powerful special interests are gaining even more power, the working families that make our country strong need a strong voice and their own tenacious fighter in Congress. Eloise Gomez Reyes is the person for the job. She has spent her entire career fighting for working families and people who can’t fight for themselves."[30]
  • A full list of endorsements can be found here.

Joe Baca

Baca reported receiving endorsements from 27 House Democrats. They appear below:[32]

Polls

General election
Poll Pete Aguilar Paul ChabotUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
American Viewpoint (October 19-21, 2014)
 42%38%20%+/-4.9400
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]
Blanket primary
Poll Pete Aguilar (D) Eloise Gomez Reyes (D)Danny Tillman (D)Joe Baca (D)Paul Chabot (R)Lesil Gooch (R)Ryan Downing (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Tulchin Research (May 7-8)
 15%13%6%13%23%6%7%18%+/-4.9400
Tulchin Research (April 14-17)
 15%12%6%8%21%4%4%30%+/-3.99600
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]

Media

Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar's first TV ad.

Eloise Gomez Reyes

Eloise Gomez Reyes' first TV ad.

Campaign contributions

Satellite spending

The DCCC spent $26,000 on an unspecified media buy and $22,000 on mailers attacking Republican Lesli Gooch in an attempt to keep him from securing the second place spot in the blanket primary.[33]

Pete Aguilar

Paul Chabot

**As of the 2014 October Quarterly Report, Chabot's committee owed $141,500 in outstanding loans to Paul Chabot.

Joe Baca

Danny Tillman

Eloise Gomez Reyes

**As of the 2014 Pre-Primary Report, Reyes' committee owed $100,000 in outstanding loans to Eloise Gomez Reyes.

Lesli Gooch

**As of the 2014 Pre-Primary Report, Gooch's committee owed $135,000 in outstanding loans to Lesli Gooch.

District history

Candidate ballot access
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg
Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

2012

On November 6, 2012, Gary Miller (R) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Bob Dutton in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 31 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGary Miller Incumbent 55.2% 88,964
     Republican Bob Dutton 44.8% 72,255
Total Votes 161,219
Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Xavier Becerra won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Stephen Smith (R) and Sal Genovese (Write-in) in the general election.[64]

U.S. House, California District 31 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngXavier Becerra incumbent 83.8% 76,363
     Republican Stephen Smith 16.2% 14,740
     Write-in Sal Genovese 0% 3
Total Votes 91,106

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR June 26, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
  2. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 28, 2014
  3. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014
  4. ↑ Real Clear Politics, "California 31st District - Chabot vs. Aguilar," accessed December 11, 2014
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 The Hill, "Feinstein endorses Calif. House candidate over ex-Rep. Baca," July 10, 2013
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  8. ↑ Press Enterprise, "Congress: Chabot blames loss on lack of money, GOP support," accessed December 11, 2014
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 San Bernardino Sun, "Election 2014: Chabot says lack of national GOP support cost CA31 election," accessed December 11, 2014
  10. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed August 13, 2024
  11. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Primary Elections in California," accessed August 13, 2024
  12. ↑ California Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration," accessed January 3, 2014
  13. ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  14. ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Secretive group spending money on former Rep. Joe Baca's campaign," May 19, 2014
  15. ↑ Roll Call, "Republican Drops Recount in Targeted California Race," June 26, 2014
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 San Bernardino Sun, "31st Congressional District Debate: Pete Aguilar, Paul Chabot face off over immigration, healthcare, education," accessed December 11, 2014
  17. ↑ U.S. House, "House Resolution 676," accessed July 30, 2014
  18. ↑ Associated Press, "Suing Obama: GOP-led House gives the go-ahead," July 31, 2014
  19. ↑ Washington Post, "House clears way for lawsuit against Obama," accessed July 30, 2014
  20. ↑ Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  21. ↑ Buzzfeed, "Government Shutdown: How We Got Here," accessed October 1, 2013
  22. ↑ Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  23. ↑ The Washington Post, "Reid, McConnell propose bipartisan Senate bill to end shutdown, extend borrowing," accessed October 16, 2013
  24. ↑ U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 550," accessed October 31, 2013
  25. ↑ Roll Call, "Two House Democrats Back Aguilar Over Baca #CA31," May 6, 2013
  26. ↑ Roll Call, "Ten House Democrats Endorse Pete Aguilar #CA31," May 22, 2013
  27. ↑ Roll Call, "Gavin Newsom, Zoe Lofgren Take Sides in Crowded House Primary | #CA31," August 19, 2013
  28. ↑ Pete Aguilar campaign website, "Pete Aguilar Receives Backing Of California Democratic Party For CD 31 Seat," March 9, 2014
  29. ↑ Huffington Post, "Split In Democratic Party Establishment As Xavier Becerra Endorses Eloise Gomez Reyes," February 21, 2014
  30. ↑ Roll Call, "Hilda Solis Endorses in California House Primary," February 24, 2014
  31. ↑ Roll Call, "EMILY’s List Backs Six House Candidates," August 6, 2013
  32. ↑ Roll Call, "Ex-Rep. Joe Baca Touts 30 Endorsements From House Democrats #CA31," May 28, 2013
  33. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "DCCC Independent Expenditures," May 30, 2014
  34. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  35. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  36. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  37. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  38. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  39. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  40. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2014
  41. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  42. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot April Quarterly," accessed May 6, 2014
  43. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  44. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2014
  45. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  46. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  47. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  48. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  49. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  50. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  51. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  52. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  53. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  54. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  55. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  56. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  57. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  58. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  59. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  60. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  61. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  62. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Lesli Gooch April Quarterly," accessed May 6, 2014
  63. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Lesli Gooch Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  64. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
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California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Laphonza Butler (D)
Alex Padilla (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
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District 4
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Ami Bera (D)
District 7
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District 14
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Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
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Jim Costa (D)
District 22
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Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
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Judy Chu (D)
District 29
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Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
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Young Kim (R)
District 41
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