Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020

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Published on August 28, 2020

Last updated on November 25, 2024[1]
2020 State Legislative Competitiveness
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Ballotpedia's 10th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 5,875 state legislative elections that took place in November 2020.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to analyze the competitiveness of a state's legislative elections: how many incumbents filed for re-election, how many incumbents have contested primaries, and how many seats are contested between a Democratic and a Republican candidate in the general election.

State legislative competitiveness in 2020 was below average compared to all even-year elections since 2010. Competitiveness decreased from 2018, but was higher than 2016, the most recent presidential election year.

Key findings of this analysis include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 85.1% of incumbents sought re-election, the highest percentage in a decade and an increase from 80.3% in 2018.
  • 79.9% of incumbents advanced to the general election without a primary challenge, an increase from 77.8% in 2018.
  • 34.8% of state legislative seats were contested by only one major party candidate, an increase from 33.7% in 2018.[2]

    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2020 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2020
    2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 34.6 35.2 30.8 31.7 36.1 33.4 33.6
    Open seats 18.7% 21.9% 16.8% 17.4% 19.7% 14.9% 18.2%
    Inc. in contested primaries 20.0% 23.3% 19.5% 20.2% 22.2% 20.1% 20.9%
    Seats with major party competition 65.0% 60.4% 56.0% 57.6% 66.3% 65.2% 61.8%

    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2020

    There were 5,875 state legislative seats up for election on November 3, 2020, in 44 states. Of that total, there were 876 open seats, guaranteeing at least 15% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the lowest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2020:

  • There were 388 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 482 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were six other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—876—was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, representing a 27% decrease from 2018.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2020
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 4,710 306 367 5 678 14.4%
    Senate 1,165 82 115 1 198 17.0%
    Total 5,875 388 482 6 876 14.9%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2020. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2020

    There were 5,875 state legislative seats up for election on November 3, 2020, in 44 states. Overall, 4,999 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 1,006 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the same percentage as in 2010, 2014, and 2016 (20%) but lower than in 2018 (22%).

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2020:

  • There were 494 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 21% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 1% increase from 2018.
  • There were 511 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 20% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 13% decrease from 2018.
  • There was one minor party or independent incumbent in contested primaries, representing 5% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—1,006—was down from 2018 (1,082), representing a 7% decrease.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2020
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[3]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 4,710 1,962 396 20.2% 2,049 405 19.8% 4,032 802 19.9%
    Senate 1,165 453 98 21.6% 513 106 20.7% 967 204 21.1%
    Total 5,875 2,415 494 20.5% 2,562 511 19.9% 4,999 1,006 20.1%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2010 to 2020.

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2020

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 5,497 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 10,746 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 1,827 contested primaries, meaning 17% of all primaries were contested. This was down from 2018 (19%) but equal to 2016 (17%).

    In 2020:

  • There were 836 contested Democratic primaries, representing 16% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 17% decrease from 2018.
  • There were 882 contested Republican primaries, representing 17% of all possible Republican primaries and a 13% decrease from 2018.
  • There were 109 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 44% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 2% increase from 2018.
  • The total number of contested primaries—1,827—was down from 2018 (2,123), representing a decrease of 14%.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2020
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,349 637 15.3% 678 16.3% 81 45.5% 1,396 16.4%
    Senate 1,148 199 18.5% 204 18.9% 28 40.0% 431 19.4%
    Total 5,497 836 15.9% 882 16.8% 109 44.0% 1,827 17.0%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2010 to 2020.

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2020

    There were 5,875 state legislative seats up for election on November 3, 2020, in 44 states. Of that total, 2,044 (35%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,831 (65%) were contested by both major parties. This was the smallest number of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2020:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,030 seats (18%) that lacked Republican competition, a 20% decrease from 2018.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 1,011 seats (17%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 35% increase from 2018.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 4,861 seats (83%) and Republicans ran for 4,842 (82%).
  • There were three seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—2,044—was less than in 2018 (2,046).


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2020
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,710 852 18.1% 808 17.2% 1,663 35.3% 3,047 64.7%
    Senate 1,165 178 15.3% 203 17.4% 381 32.7% 784 67.3%
    Total 5,875 1,030 17.5% 1,011 17.2% 2,044 34.8% 3,831 65.2%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2020.


    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The numbers reflected here are subject to change by the time of the general election. Additionally, Ballotpedia is currently conducting a decade-wide audit of all state legislative elections in order to standardized data from previous years.
    2. ↑ In this analysis, a race without major party competition is defined as a race for an office where at no point in the election cycle a Republican appears on the ballot with a Democrat or vice versa. In most instances, this would be the general election ballot. In the case of top-two primary states, that primary would also be taken into consideration even if two candidates from the same party eventually advance to the general election. This definition differs from elsewhere on Ballotpedia and therefore numbers for this metric on other pages might not equal what is included here. Ballotpedia is in the process of updating competitiveness data from 2010 to 2020 and bringing this section in line with the definition used elsewhere will be part of that process.
    3. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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